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1 Conditional Climatology Tools AvnFPS 3.2. 2 Contributors.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Conditional Climatology Tools AvnFPS 3.2. 2 Contributors."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Conditional Climatology Tools AvnFPS 3.2

2 2 Contributors

3 3 Mike Graf (NWS Headquarters) Jerry Griffin (NWS Training Center) David Hotz (WFO Morristown, TN) Todd Lericos (WFO Caribou) Cammye Sims (WFO San Antonio) Mark Struthworf (WFO Salt Lake City) Jeff Tongue (WFO New York City)

4 4 Objectives Describe Conditional Climatology –Definition –Benefits/Limitations Discuss new AvnFPS 3.2 climatology tools –Wind Rose –CIG/VSBY Distributions –CIG/VSBY Trends Discuss current forecast methods/limitations Adding Conditional Climatology to the Forecast Toolkit Interpret and apply the output –Case studies –Local case studies

5 5 What is Conditional Climatology? A distribution of variables now and in the future based on one or more given conditions. Examples: –Pattern Recognition –Conceptual Models –Local Rules of Thumb –Forecaster Experience

6 6 Role of Conditional Climatology in Aviation Forecasting 1960s –Conditional Climatology Tables - USAF 1970s to present –Numerical models –MOS 2000s –Integration of CC back into the aviation forecast process

7 7 Benefits of Conditional Climatology? Guidance on event duration, intensity and trends Limits over forecasting of rare events Increases forecaster confidence Better results than just using persistence forecasting or NWP/MOS guidance

8 8 Limitations of Conditional Climatology Can not be used alone! Does not discriminate physical processes May not be useful in extreme or rare weather events Not fool proof

9 9 Wind Rose Tool

10 10 Applied Wind Rose

11 11 CIG/VSBY Distribution Tool

12 12 Why are we here?

13 13 Why are we here?

14 14 Why are we here? SOO Intern Lead General

15 15 Why are we here? SOO Intern Lead General The SOO is killing me with all this Training

16 16 CIG/VSBY Trend Tool

17 17 How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and Visibility????

18 18 How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and Visibility????

19 19 How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and Visibility????

20 20 How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and Visibility????

21 21 How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and Visibility????

22 22 How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and Visibility????

23 23 What Tools Do you Use?

24 24 What Tools Do you Use? Current Observations Satellite MOS Soundings / BUFKIT Model Data Local Studies Advection Convection Persistence

25 25 What Tools Do you Use? Current Observations Satellite MOS Soundings / BUFKIT Model Data Local Studies Advection Convection Persistence

26 26 Using NWP Model Data to forecast clouds

27 27 Models Relative Humidity??? Model Clouds???

28 28 Model Soundings?

29 29 BUFKIT – RH and Clouds

30 30 Relative Humidity = Clouds?

31 31 Adding Model Clouds

32 32 RH with respect to ICE or Water? RH With Respect to Water RH With Respect to Ice

33 33 RH Time Section

34 34 Model Clouds and Bases

35 35 How good are NWP Models at predicting: Moisture? Its Horizontal and Vertical Distribution? Cloud Ceilings?

36 36 Model Output Statistics! Good idea. Removes biases. Adds Climatology.

37 37 MAV MOS Is the Weather in Caribou the same as State College PA or New York City? Is the Weather in Atlanta the same as San Antonio? Regional Equations are used for Ceiling and Visibility Summer (Apr-Sept)Winter (Oct-Mar)

38 38

39 39 MAV MOS Model Run time plus 3 Hour Observation is Critical (03Z, 09Z, 15Z or 21Z) Use the Ceiling and Visibility Category Probabilities.

40 40 MOS - Ceiling and Visibility Category Probabilities.

41 41 NGM MOS Look at NGM Synoptic Pattern Period of Record used for equation Development is Extensive 02Z and 14Z Observations are critical

42 42 We need more Rules of thumb? in this situation, the cloud base usually remains IFR until late morning. CLIMATOLOGY!!! Conditional Climatology

43 43 Example 18Z TAF John F. Kennedy International Airport

44 44

45 45

46 46

47 47 17Z METAR METAR KJFK Z 14009KT 10SM BKN007 BKN250 19/16 A3020 RMK AO2 SLP226 T

48 48 Situation SE Flow Prevails When and How Low does the Ceiling and Visibility Go??

49 49 12Z NAM-eta (Fcst Hr = 05) Valid 17Z

50 50 15Z RUC (Fcst Hr = 02) Valid 17Z

51 51 12Z NAM-eta (Fcst Hr = 14) Valid 02Z

52 52 15Z RUC (Fcst Hr = 11) Valid 02Z

53 53 GFS MOS

54 54 NGM MOS

55 55 Current TAF KJFK Z KT P6SM BKN007 TEMPO 1617 SCT007 FM KT P6SM SCT010 SCT080 SCT140 FM0200 VRB04KT 1SM BR SCT004 SCT040 FM0600 VRB03KT 3/4SM BR BKN004 TEMPO /2SM FG VV002=

56 56 Joint Distribution ( default) May-Jun 16-18Z SE Wind Un-restricted Visibility

57 57 Ceiling Distribution ( default) May-Jun 16-18Z SE Wind Un-restricted Visibility

58 58 Visibility Distribution ( default) May-Jun 16-18Z SE Wind Un-restricted Visibility

59 59 Ceiling Distribution Apr-mid Jun 13-22Z S-E Wind Un-restricted Visibility

60 60 Visibility Distribution Apr-mid Jun 13-22Z S-E Wind Un-restricted Visibility

61 61 What Would You Forecast?

62 62 What Was Forecast? FTUS41 KOKX TAFJFK TAF KJFK Z KT P6SM BKN007 TEMPO 1923 SCT007 FM KT 3SM BR BKN005 FM0600 VRB03KT 1SM BR OVC004 TEMPO /2SM FG VV002 FM KT 5SM HZ BKN008 FM KT P6SM SCT010 SCT050=

63 63 TAF based on Climatology? TAF KJFK Z KT P6SM BKN007 FM KT 3SM BR OVC004 FM KT 1/2SM FG VV002 …… ACTUAL TAF (no CC) KJFK Z KT P6SM BKN007 TEMPO 1923 SCT007 FM KT 3SM BR BKN005 FM0600 VRB03KT 1SM BR OVC004 TEMPO /2SM FG VV002 FM KT 5SM HZ BKN008 FM KT P6SM SCT010 SCT050=

64 64 KJFK Z 15007KT 10SM BKN007 19/16 A3020 RMK AO2 SLP225 T = KJFK Z 15007KT 10SM VCFG BKN007 19/16 A3019 RMK AO2 SLP222 VIS S 2 1/2 T = KJFK Z 15009KT 8SM BKN007 19/16 A3017 RMK AO2 SLP217 T = KJFK Z 16011KT 8SM OVC007 18/16 A3016 RMK AO2 SLP213 T = KJFK Z 15011KT 1/2SM BR OVC005 18/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 6 SLP203 T = KJFK Z 15011KT 1/8SM BR OVC003 18/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 6= KJFK Z 15011KT 1/2SM BR OVC003 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 6 SFC VIS E-SE 2 1/2 $= KJFK Z 15007KT 1/2SM R04R/3500VP6000FT BR OVC003 17/16 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 1/2 SLP204 T = KJFK Z 15009KT 1/2SM R04R/2000V3500FT BR OVC003 17/16 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3/4 SLP204 T = KJFK Z 15006KT 1/2SM R04R/2200V3500FT BR OVC003 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3/4 SLP203 T = KJFK Z 19009KT 1/4SM R04R/2000V2800FT FG VV002 17/16 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP205 T $= KJFK Z 18005KT 1/4SM R04R/1800V2200FT FG VV002 17/16 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 $= KJFK Z 19006KT 1/8SM R04R/2000V2200FT FG VV002 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK Z 18007KT 1/8SM R04R/2200V2600FT FG VV002 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP203 T $= KJFK Z 17007KT 0SM R04R/1600V1800FT FG VV001 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK Z 18007KT 0SM R04R/1400V1600FT FG VV001 17/17 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 SLP201 T $= KJFK Z 17005KT 0SM R04R/1600V2000FT -DZ FG VV001 17/17 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 DZB35 SLP203 P0000 T $= KJFK Z 14006KT 0SM R04R/1600FT FG VV001 17/17 A3012 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 DZE50 SLP199 P T $= KJFK Z 15005KT 0SM R04R/1200V1400FT FG VV001 17/17 A3010 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 SLP193 T $= KJFK Z 18005KT 0SM R04R/1400FT FG VV001 17/17 A3008 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 SLP187 T $= KJFK Z 18007KT 0SM R04R/2200V2600FT FG VV001 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP182 T $= KJFK Z 17007KT 0SM R04R/1600V2000FT FG VV001 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK Z 18007KT 0SM R04R/2000V3500FT FG VV001 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK Z 20007KT 0SM R04R/2200V2600FT FG VV002 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP182 T $= KJFK Z 20006KT 0SM R04R/1800V2000FT FG VV002 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK Z 21006KT 0SM R04R/1800V2000FT FG VV001 18/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK Z 21004KT 0SM R04R/1400FT FG VV001 18/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 SLP183 T $= KJFK Z 22006KT 0SM R04R/1000FT FG VV001 18/18 A3006 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 SLP180 T $= KJFK Z 20005KT 0SM R04R/1000V2000FT FG VV001 19/18 A3006 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 SLP179 T = KJFK Z 19006KT 0SM R04R/1400V2400FT FG VV001 19/18 A3006 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4= KJFK Z 21007KT 0SM R04R/2000V5500FT BR OVC002 19/18 A3005 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3/4= KJFK Z 19007KT 0SM R04R/1600V4500FT BR OVC002 19/18 A3004 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 1/4 SLP173 T = KJFK Z 18007KT 0SM R04R/2200VP6000FT BR BKN003 21/19 A3003 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 SLP170 SFC VIS SE-SW 1/2 CIG 002V004 T = KJFK Z 17006KT 3SM HZ BKN003 22/19 A3003 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 4 SFC VIS SW-W 1 1/2 BKN V SCT= KJFK Z 19006KT 5SM HZ SCT003 22/18 A3002 RMK AO2 SLP166 SCT V BKN T = KJFK Z 17009KT 8SM FEW008 24/19 A3000 RMK AO2 SLP158 T = KJFK Z 18009KT 10SM FEW045 SCT250 24/19 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP151 CB DSNT N T = KJFK Z 17010KT 10SM FEW045 SCT250 25/19 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP145 CB DSNT NE TCU DSNT N T = KJFK Z 18015KT 10SM SCT250 25/19 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP137 T = KJFK Z 18020G24KT 10SM FEW045 SCT250 24/19 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP124 TCU DSNT W T =

65 65 Best times to use Conditional Climatology During steady state quiet weather situations. Fog/Stratus events –Radiation Fog –Advection Fog –Marine Stratus Prevailing Wind Determining Onset and Dissipation Times. Seasonal Refresher and New Forecasters orientation. New TAF sites, where 30-years of data exists

66 66 What You Need to Do Develop local Case Studies with your Airports and TAFs to learn how best to integrate the NEW tools into your TAFs and your forecast operations.

67 67 Summary Conditional Climatology improves the TAF process through increased forecaster confidence. Must correctly integrate Conditional Climatology with Observations, NWP, MOS and other techniques. Conditional Climatology can improve TAF quality and service.

68 68 AVNFPS 3.2 Web Pages Main Page: Supplemental Instructions:

69 69 Pre-View - AVNFPS 3.3

70 70 Pre-View AVNFPS 3.3

71 71 Pre-View AVNFPS 3.3

72 72 Thank You!

73 73 References BUFKIT: MOS: MODCV: https://notus2.afccc.af.mil/https://notus2.afccc.af.mil/ MODELS:

74 74 References Old Forecast Tools (Ouija Board, Crystal Ball, Dart Board and the Magic 8 Ball) available at Wal-Mart, Target and other fine stores!


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