2The ProblemSvante Oden (1968): “The Acidification of Air and Precipitation and its Consequences.”SOx, NOx -> transported over the continent ->form acids in precipitation or dry formDamage to health, forests, lakes, soils, ecosystems – particularly in Sweden, NorwayInternational environmental externality
3The Actors Leaders: Sweden, Norway 1972 Conference on the Human EnvironmentLaggards: UK, Germany, Communist Eastern Europe
4The Breakthrough1975 Helsinki Conference on Security and Cooperation in EuropeUSSR and US interested in détenteEnvironment the most convenient object of cooperationScandinavians saw an opportunity, so did CanadaThe UN Economic Commission for Europe –lead agencyLong-Range Transboundary Air Pollution Convention (LRTAP), 1979EMEP Protocol (1984)
5More Lead Actors West Germany: the death of the Black Forest 30% club: Scandinavians, W. Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Canada, FranceThe First Sulfur Protocol (1985):30% of 1980 emissions by 1993
6The Protocols The Nitrogen Oxides Protocol (1988) VOC Protocol (1991) Freeze emissions at 1987 levels by 1995VOC Protocol (1991)30% of emissions (base b/w 1984 and 1990) by 1999.The Second Sulfur Protocol (1994)Differentiated targets bases on critical loads for acidification for 2000 and 2010;technology standardsThe Protocol on Heavy Metals (1998 )The Protocol on POPs (1998)Gothenburg Multipollutant Protocol (1999)
7Regulatory Innovation Critical loads: “the highest load that will not cause chemical changes leading to long-term harmful effects on the most sensitive ecological ecosystems” (Levy 1995, p. 61).Why negotiate on the basis of critical loads estimates?
8Critical Loads for Acid Deposition (red-high sensitivity, blue –low)
9The RAINS Model Integrate science in international policy Emissions moduleCost moduleDispersion moduleEffects module (critical loads)
10Second Sulfur Protocol: Correlation of SO2 Emission Ceilings and RAINS Recommendations
11Second Sulfur Protocol (1994) 60% gap closure against critical loadsDifferentiated targetsRequirement to apply Best Available Technology (BAT), achieve up to 90% desulfurization of emissions from large sources
13The Gothenburg Protocol (1999) Multiple effects: Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level OzoneMultiple pollutants: emission ceilings for SOx, NOx, VOCs and ammonia (NH3) by 2010Based on RAINS outputsEmission limits for large combustion sources, dry cleaning, cars, trucks based on BATIf implemented, Europe’s sulfur emissions should be cut by 63%, its NOx by 41%, VOC by 40%, and ammonia by 17% compared to 1990.
14Gothenburg Protocol: Correlation of SO2 emission ceilings and RAINS Recommendations Model Input vs. Protocol: SO22004006008001000120014001600J1 (final scenario from RAINS)Protocol (accepted terms)PolandBulgariaRomaniaSpainGermanyFranceItalyHungaryUKGreece
15EU Directives Large Combustion Plant Directive (1988) Large Combustion Plant Directive II (2001)National Emissions Ceilings Directive (2001)1988 directive exported German legislation, helped the SSP;2001 – after Gothenburg protocol, but slightly stronger commitments
16Acid Rain Cooperation in Europe Success or least common denominator agreements?