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Slide 1 Workshop on quality control and quality assurance of greenhouse gas inventories and the establishment of national inventory systems 2-3 september.

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Presentation on theme: "Slide 1 Workshop on quality control and quality assurance of greenhouse gas inventories and the establishment of national inventory systems 2-3 september."— Presentation transcript:

1 slide 1 Workshop on quality control and quality assurance of greenhouse gas inventories and the establishment of national inventory systems 2-3 september 2004 European Environment Agency Copenhagen Miet Dheer Flemish Environment Agency Belgium

2 Workshop on QC and QA of GHG inventories and the establishment of national inventory systems september EEA - Copenhagen -Miet Dheer slide 2 Content of presentation Air emission inventory system GHG in Belgium Audits emission inventory Development quality management system and calculations uncertainties (Flanders) Conclusions

3 Workshop on QC and QA of GHG inventories and the establishment of national inventory systems september EEA - Copenhagen -Miet Dheer slide 3 Air emission inventory system GHG in Belgium Responsibility of 3 regions Difference in means, methodologies,… Coordination and tuning in WG emissions of CCIEP Interregional Environment Unit (IRCEL) : compiling national inventory

4 Workshop on QC and QA of GHG inventories and the establishment of national inventory systems september EEA - Copenhagen -Miet Dheer slide 4 Audits emission inventory GHG Oct-Dec 2002 Results Flemish emission inventory : qualitative good value Difference actual situation and obliged situation (guidelines UNFCCC) : implementation IPCC GPG Further improvement harmonisation 3 emission inventories

5 Workshop on QC and QA of GHG inventories and the establishment of national inventory systems september EEA - Copenhagen -Miet Dheer slide 5 Audits emission inventory GHG Oct-Dec 2002 Recommendations Documentation and management of data Better tuning with producers EB and establish responsibilities Guarantee of quality : DAP, QA/QC plan (ISO), start analysis uncertainties (quantitive & qualitive), improvement of tiers Manpower and means

6 Workshop on QC and QA of GHG inventories and the establishment of national inventory systems september EEA - Copenhagen -Miet Dheer slide 6 Development quality management system and calculation uncertainties Study consultancy office (Jan-May 2004) : planning and guidance in the development and implementation of a quality system for the emission inventory of GHG and development and utilization of a methodology to calculate uncertainties

7 Workshop on QC and QA of GHG inventories and the establishment of national inventory systems september EEA - Copenhagen -Miet Dheer slide 7 Development quality management system and calculation uncertainties situation before study consultancy office : Key source categories (tier 1) : level and trend assessment Intern work on quality assurance and control Independant audits of the 3 regions Certified ISO 9001 system for the flemish EB EMAS certification and agreement of laboratories Uncertainty CO 2 of fossil fuel combustion and key sources (Flanders)

8 Workshop on QC and QA of GHG inventories and the establishment of national inventory systems september EEA - Copenhagen -Miet Dheer slide 8 Development quality management system and calculation uncertainties study consultancy office (Jan-May 2004) : Planning and guidance in the development and implementation of a quality system for the emission inventory of GHG Development and utilization of a methodology to calculate uncertainties

9 Workshop on QC and QA of GHG inventories and the establishment of national inventory systems september EEA - Copenhagen -Miet Dheer slide 9 Development quality management system Performance gap analyse Setting up a quality structure Setting up the procedures

10 Workshop on QC and QA of GHG inventories and the establishment of national inventory systems september EEA - Copenhagen -Miet Dheer slide 10 Development quality management system Conclusions GAP analyse Lots of elements already operational but insufficient documented Missing information : quality handbook, procedures required for IPCC (and ISO), management review Quality policy and quality objectives not yet available Planning to measure the effectiveness of QMS still missing

11 Workshop on QC and QA of GHG inventories and the establishment of national inventory systems september EEA - Copenhagen -Miet Dheer slide 11 Development quality management system Quality structure Quality handbook Level 1 Standardized procedures (GP1) Management of documents Management review Audits Level 2 Standardized procedures (GP2) Crf tables Balance Score Card Corrective and preventive measures Level 3 Forms list of control Level 4

12 Workshop on QC and QA of GHG inventories and the establishment of national inventory systems september EEA - Copenhagen -Miet Dheer slide 12 Development quality management system 1. Policy declaration 2. Work area 3. Quality system (quality handbook, procedures, judgment of system, …) 4. Organization and staff 5. Facilities 6. Orders and services to third parties 7. Performance of activities 8. Management of data and documents 9. Reporting 10. Complaines Quality handbook :

13 Workshop on QC and QA of GHG inventories and the establishment of national inventory systems september EEA - Copenhagen -Miet Dheer slide 13 Development quality management system Set up a DAP Collecting data Input and validation data Compiling data Reporting and documentation Procedure to fill in CRF tables : main process

14 Workshop on QC and QA of GHG inventories and the establishment of national inventory systems september EEA - Copenhagen -Miet Dheer slide 14 Development quality management system Determination of the strategic policy objectives Set up the strategic policy plan (BSC plan) Determination of critical succes factors Link strategic objectives and internal processes Determination of key performance indicators (KPI) Determination of criteria for KPI Procedure to manage the Balance Score Card : different steps

15 slide 15 Collecting dataInput and validation data Compiling dataReportingt Evaluation Fulfil obligation Making data acquisition plan Documents and data Records and archiving Obligations Organisation and management QMSAudits Management review Correction and prevention StaffMeans Extern Communication Conformity against international standards (ISO, IPCC ) # (non) conformities VMM/AMO/ GP1/0.008 VMM/AMO/ KHB VMM/AMO/ GP1/0.010 VMM/AMO/ GP1/0.011 VMM/AMO/ GP2/5.001 Staff department VMM/AMO/ KHB VMM/AMO/ GP2/5.002 VMM/AMO/ GP2/5.004

16 Workshop on QC and QA of GHG inventories and the establishment of national inventory systems september EEA - Copenhagen -Miet Dheer slide 16 Calculation uncertainties Basis of uncertainty estimates Methodologie tier 1 and tier 2 Monte Carlo simulation Uncertainties on level Uncertainties on trend Key sources Conclusions

17 Workshop on QC and QA of GHG inventories and the establishment of national inventory systems september EEA - Copenhagen -Miet Dheer slide 17 Calculation uncertainties Basis of uncertainty estimates measurement data availability and completeness of data domestic and international literature expert judgement interview with other experts IPCC default uncertainties Level 2001 and trend CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O

18 Workshop on QC and QA of GHG inventories and the establishment of national inventory systems september EEA - Copenhagen -Miet Dheer slide 18 Calculation uncertainties Methodology tier 1 and tier 2 Tier 1: error propagation equations (normal distributions, symmetrical, uncertainty < 100%, handling of correlations problematic) Tier 2: Monte Carlo simulation (distributions can have all possible shapes and widths, flexible handling of correlations, using a stochastic simulation ) both methods used in the study

19 Workshop on QC and QA of GHG inventories and the establishment of national inventory systems september EEA - Copenhagen -Miet Dheer slide 19 Calculation uncertainties Monte-Carlo Simulation Input parameters of emission calculation model are replaced with probability density functions (e.g. normal or lognormal distributions) Total uncertainty is obtained taking random numbers from each input distribution and calculating the corresponding emission values several thousands of times to obtain the probability distribution of the emissions Activity data Emission factor Emissions

20 Workshop on QC and QA of GHG inventories and the establishment of national inventory systems september EEA - Copenhagen -Miet Dheer slide 20 Calculation uncertainties Uncertainties on Level (Emissions 2001) -3,95… +4,97% ±4,28%Total GHG -28,95…+44,59%±35,23%N2ON2O -14,64…+17,19%±15,48%CH 4 -2,75… +2,75% ±2,73%CO 2 Tier 2Tier 1

21 Workshop on QC and QA of GHG inventories and the establishment of national inventory systems september EEA - Copenhagen -Miet Dheer slide 21 Calculations uncertainties Uncertainties on Trend ( ) +5,99…+12,88% -3,49… +3,40% ±3,37% +9,48% Total GHG -19,78… +3,77% -14,47… +9,07% ±10,12% -5,31% N2ON2O -17,18… +2,24% -8,47…+10,95% ±9,24% -8,71% CH 4 +9,82…+17,25% -3,71… +3,72% ±3,77%+13,53% CO 2 Tier 2Tier 1Trend

22 slide 22 Calculation uncertainties Key sources for LEVEL uncertainty (Tier 2)

23 slide 23 Calculation uncertainties Key sources for TREND uncertainty (Tier 2)

24 Workshop on QC and QA of GHG inventories and the establishment of national inventory systems september EEA - Copenhagen -Miet Dheer slide 24 Calculation uncertainties Conclusions Total uncertainty in Flanders is rather low (- 4 … + 5%), due to the large share of CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion, which are accurately known. CO 2 emissions are accurately known, but other gases contain higher uncertainties. N 2 O emissions from Nitric acid production and agricultural soils dominate the uncertainty CO 2 emissions from Other fuels (Naphtha) in Chemical industry and Liquid fuels in Other sectors (Residential, Commercial, …) are other factors most affecting uncertainty

25 Workshop on QC and QA of GHG inventories and the establishment of national inventory systems september EEA - Copenhagen -Miet Dheer slide 25 Overall conclusions Conducted study Flanders : first step Other regions : Tier 1 uncertainty calculation and EMAS certification (ISO 9001 foreseen) in Wallonia Next step : full implementation (Flanders + Wallonia + Brussels) Objective : first official publication results April 2005


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