Presentation on theme: "Violence, Governance, Development SOAS/Mo Ibrahim Foundation Governance for Development in Africa Addis Ababa, 2012."— Presentation transcript:
Violence, Governance, Development SOAS/Mo Ibrahim Foundation Governance for Development in Africa Addis Ababa, 2012
ANALYTICAL LINKS: GOVERNANCE & VIOLENCE
Links between Governance & Violence Allocation of rights to violence States as war-makers Managing the violence problem: coalitions and economic development The perpetual and pervasive violence problem
Links, continued… Violence as lack of governance? Violence as reflection of governance? Violence as source of improved governance?
Rents, coalitions, violence Deterrent organizations, or credible threat Generating rents so that violence reduces value of privileges for elites Or just have powerful organizations of force that are subservient to law
TRENDS, LEVELS, CLASSIFICATION
Peace and Conflict, 2010, CIDCM
Spagat, Restrepo and Vargas
Source: Moser & McIlwaine, World Development, 2006
VIOLENCE AND DEVELOPMENT I
Grievance Growth (5 years before onset) Repression (elections, press freedom, etc) Inequality (Gini coefficient) Ethnicity (ELF)
Greed Goodies (% of primary commodity exports in GDP) Rascals (% of year old males in population) Education (number of years average schooling)
How to overcome constraints on collective action Direct, material rewards, now, to individuals Coercion Norms & ideology Joint production (Kriger; Kalyvas) of violence by local and national, outside and inside communities – intimacy Whatevers easiest (economic or social endowments) but this will shape the form of conflict (Weinstein)
Friendly Fire? Regressing endogenous variables on endogenous variables Failing to reflect anything in the last 25 years of economic theory or technique Conclusions not justified by findings Might be published in an IR journal but not in a 3 rd rate economics journal.
From Boyce and Forman (2011), Financing Peace – WDR input paper
Aid volatility coefficient From Boyce and Forman (2011), Financing Peace – WDR input paper
Political His in Kenya Frances Stewart, Kenya disturbances: note for discussion, 2008
Frances Stewart conclusions Socio-economic HIs favour Kikuyu, regionally and within (e.g. within Rift Valley vis-à-vis Kalenjin) Political elite bargain reflected in inclusive cabinets…till Political power offers elite benefits; socio- economic HIs facilitate mobilisation.