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Centre report of KMA 29 th WGNE meeting Melbourne 10-13 MAR. 2014 Centre report of KMA 29 th WGNE meeting Melbourne 10-13 MAR. 2014 Hoon Park Numerical.

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Presentation on theme: "Centre report of KMA 29 th WGNE meeting Melbourne 10-13 MAR. 2014 Centre report of KMA 29 th WGNE meeting Melbourne 10-13 MAR. 2014 Hoon Park Numerical."— Presentation transcript:

1 Centre report of KMA 29 th WGNE meeting Melbourne 10-13 MAR. 2014 Centre report of KMA 29 th WGNE meeting Melbourne 10-13 MAR. 2014 Hoon Park Numerical Model Management Office KMA

2 2 Outlines Current status & update strategy of KMA NWP system Upgrade NWP system in 2014 and upcoming plans Research activities in NWP at KMA

3 Status & upgrade strategy

4 4 KMAs 3 nd Supercomputer (current) RefHaeOnHaeDamTotal Installation Year 2010. 12 Core Number 45,12045,12090,240 Core Type AMD 2.1 GHz, 12 core Peak performance 379 TF 758TF Main Memory 60 TB 120TB Capacity of Disk 4 PB Capacity of Tape drive 8 PB OS Suse Linux 11 HaeOn HaeDam Computing System for Operation (20 Cabinets, 379Tflop/s) Computing System for R&D and backup (20 Cabinets, 379Tflop/s) HaeOn, HaeDam was ranked the 110 th, 111 th fastest supercomputer in the world (Nov. 2013) Ref. ( )

5 5 E-ASIA UM 12kmL70 / WRF 10kmL40 Target Length 87hrs/72hrs (6 hourly) Initialization : 4DVAR / 3DVAR GLOBAL Resolution N512L70 (UM) (~25km / top = 80km) Target Length 288hrs (00/12UTC) 87hrs (06/18UTC) Initialization : Hybrid Ensemble 4DVAR Global EPS Resolution N320L70 (UM) (~40km/ top =80km) Target Length 288hrs IC : GDAPS # of Members : 24 Perturbation : ETKF, RP, SKEB2 LOCAL Resolution 1.5kmL70 (UM) (744 928 / top =39km) Target Length 36hrs Initialization : 3DVAR Operational NWP Systems

6 6ModelResolution Target Length Main target UM (Global) N512(25km) L70 12 days 87hours(06,18) Medium-range N320 L70 M2412 daysMedium-range (EPS) UM (E.Asia) 12km L7087 hoursShort-range WRF (E.Asia) 10km L4087 hoursShort-range UM (Korea) 1.5km L7036 hoursVery short-range KLAPS (Korea) 5km12 hoursVery short-range Wave Watch III 55km12daysGlobal 8km87 hoursNortheast Asia 1km72 hoursCoastal ADAM (Dust & Aerosol) 30km72 hoursAsia dust DBAR (Typhoon) 35km72 hoursTrack Tide/Storm Surge 9km87 hoursNortheast Asia GlobalGlobal E-AsiaE-Asia LocalLocal App.&Stat.App.&Stat. Operational NWP Models (13.6~)

7 7 Update plans for NWP system Year2014201520162017 computer3 rd 3 rd to 4 th 4 th Global Deterministic 25km 70L Hybrid 4dVar 60km inner loop 17km70L Hybrid 4dVar 40km DA inner loop Global Ensemble 40km 70L 24M 6 hour cycle 25km 70L 24M 6 hour cycle Local (LDAPS) Deterministic 1.5km 70L 3dVar(3hr) 3km inner loop 1.5km 70L 4dVar(1hr) 3km inner loop 1.5km 70L Hybrid 4dVar(1hr) 3km inner loop 1km 70L Hybrid 4dvar(1hr) 2km inner loop Local (LDAPS) Ensemble 3km 70L 12M (Semi operation run) 3km 70L 12M (Official operation run) 3km 70L 12M1.5km 70L 24M Undetermined Coupling with ocean wave, Asian dust model with global model Undetermined Coupling with ocean wave, Asian dust model with global model

8 Update NWP system in 2013

9 9 NWP Changes in 2013 Global Data Assimilation and Prediction Syste (N512L70) Version changes UM : vn7.7 vn7.9 VAR/OPS : vn27.2 vn29.2 SURF: vn18.2 vn18.5 Major change 4dVar Hybrid Ensemble 4dVar Physics package upgrade (PS26 PS28) Use Climatological Aerosols Data Set Add COMS CSR data

10 10 NWP Changes in 2013 Regional (East Asia) Data Assimilation and Prediction System(12kmL70) UM : vn7.7 vn7.9 Physics package: PS27 PS28 SURF: vn18.5 Ancillary Data Set update (CAP6.6 CAP7.7) New soil hydraulic properties – wilting and critical points New soil thermal conductivity Local (Korea) Data Assimilation and Prediction System(1.5kmL70) UM : vn7.9 (1.5km L70 ) Physics package : PS27 PS28 OPS : vn27.2 / VAR : vn27.2 vn29.2 SURF: vn18.3 vn18.5 Use Aerosol effect for Visibility with domestic emission data Latent heat nudging using Radar Data

11 11 Global Hybrid Ensemble 4DVAR 9h 288h BERR ERLY LATE ERLY LATE ERLY LATE ERLY LATE ERLY (12d) ERLY (12d) ERLY (12d) ERLY (12d) GDAPS EPS 06 UTC12 UTC18 UTC00 UTC Initial T+0 Obs Changes in EPS : 2 times daily (00/12UTC) 4 times daily (9 hours forecast at 06/18UTC) Use Hybrid background-error covariance (Climatological covariance : Ensemble covariance = 1.0 : 0.3) to reflect Error of the day Background

12 12 AVG Verification against Observation / Improvement over Non-hybrid D.A. [%] Positive Impact Verification Domain Impact of Hybrid Ensemble 4DVAR July~August 2012 AVG Verification Domain December 2012 Verification against ECMWF Analysis (Z500) / Improvement over Non-hybrid D.A. [%] July~August 2012December 2012 NH TR SH NML ASIA EASIA AVG Positive Impact Verification Domain

13 13 Radiative Effect of Aerosol (Climatology) Summer Continental Warm Bias

14 14 GSM T213 GSM T106 GSM T426 UM N320 Model : UM N512 3DOI 3dVar1dVar (TOVS) FGAT 4dVar D. A. : Hybrid 4dVar Operational Global Model Performance

15 15 The effect of New soil hydraulic properties The corrected soil hydraulic properties data set added to RDAPS(12kmL70). The new soil properties shows wilting, critical point soil moisture surface temperature Decreased the warm bias in the RDAPS for winter time OLD NEW Comparison of the soil properties local time New soil properties Old soil properties Day Night

16 16 Visibility with Murk Aerosols (LDAPS) Aerosol emission of CAPSS 1 at NIER 2 Resolution : 1km X 1km [ kg/year/km 2 ] Type : NOx, SOx, VOC Coverage : South Korea 1 CAPSS : Clean Air Policy Support System 2 NIER : National Institute of Environmental Research INTEX-B (NASA/2006) Resolution : 0.5 o 0.5 o Type : NOx, SOx, VOC Coverage : East Aisa Improved underestimation visibility for 1~5km NEW Relative Humidity : visual contrast(=0.05) air : scattering coefficient of clear air(=1.0E-5) r* : radius of total water concentration m : concentration of murk aerosol - L_MURK=F : 10 [ g/kg] - L_MURK=T : 0.1~200 [ g/kg] Aerosols effect OLD Visibility Murk Aerosols

17 17 Plan for the new HPC introduction HPC Plans - Installation of 1 st stage system : 14 Q4 - Installation of final stage system : 15 Q4 - Expacted Rpeak : ~10PFlops (current HPC : 0.75PFlops) NWP Plans NWP system15~1617~18 Global (Deterministic)~17km~12km Global (EPS)~25km~17km Local (Deterministic/EPS)1.5~4km~1km

18 18 Future Plans on NWP system Model Data assimilation Implementation of New Dynamical Core (ENDGame) (15) Increasing resolution of the global model(Ocean wave, dust) Development of Probabilistic (Ensemble) NWP Systems A-O coupling for NWP (extended medium-range prediction) Development / Implementation of new D.A. technique - Approach to use Ensemble information in D.A. Use of additional observation data - CSR, Ground GPS, observation from new satellites Ocean D.A ( For Seasonal and extended range (30 days)).

19 19 Seamless Prediction Approach Complexity 1day 3days10days1month3months>year 1km 10km 100km Atmos.(+Sfc.) A-O Coupling Earth System Resolution Target Length NWP GAP Seasonal Prediction Climate Research LDAPS RDAPS GDAPS Global EPS Joint Seasonal Prediction System

20 20 Complexity 1day 3days10days1month3months>year 1km 10km 100km Atmos.(+Sfc.) A-O Coupling Earth System Resolution Target Length NWP Climate Research Seasonal Prediction Extension of target length using coupled NWP system and ensemble approach Spatio-temporally higher resolution prediction Seamless Prediction Approach N320(~40km) UM (M24 EPS) + NEMO(0.25deg) 30-day prediction trial

21 21 Regional & Convective Scale Modelling Incheon Seoul Incheon Intl Airport UM 1kmL70 for 17 th Asian Game (Incheon, 2014) - UM vn7.9 vn8.2 / 360(E-W)x324(N-S) - Hourly 3DVAR (2km inner loop) cycle / FGAT 4DVAR? - LBC from LDAPS model - T+12H

22 Local Ensemble & DA research

23 23 LENS 2,013 km 1,869 km The integration area covers the Korean peninsula including oceans and parts of adjacent countries such as China and Japan. About 3km horizontal grid spacing and 70 vertical levels of top 40km altitude are employed. Simple downscaling of global Ensemble prediction system (N400L70, ~32km) will be adapted for IC and BC.

24 24 Resolution & Num. of members Preliminary FSS score(Le Duc et al., 2013) result from 3 rainfall cases. [1.0mm] [0.1mm] Spatial scale (neighborhood size) 3km 16 member shows best 3km 12 member selected to trial accounting computer resources and stable performance (3km 16) > (3km 12) > (2km 12) ~ (2km 16) > (2km 8) > (3km 8) > (1.5km 16) ~ (1.5km 12) > (1.5km 8) (3km 8) > (3km 12) > (2km 12) ~ (2km 8) ~ (3km 16) > (2km 16) > (1.5km 12) ~ (1.5km 16) > (1.5km 8) Spatial scale (neighborhood size)

25 25 T+48 Trial schedule of LENS 9h 288h BG_ERR s BG_ERR s ERLY LATE ERLY LATE ERLY LATE ERLY LATE ERLY (12d) ERLY (12d) ERLY (12d) ERLY (12d) ERLY GDAPS EPSG 00 UTC 06 UTC 12 UTC 18 UTC Initial T+0 Initial T+0 Obs. Obs. Background Global ensemble prediction system(EPSG) provides perturbed initial and boundary conditions for LENS at T+3 forecast. 03UTC Pert. IC (T+3) Pert. IC (T+3) Pert. BC Pert. BC T+48 15UTC Pert. IC (T+3) Pert. IC (T+3) Pert. BC Pert. BC 12~24 members for 2 days forecast LENS Hybrid Ensemble and 4dVar Downscaling

26 26 Application of Ensemble DA LENS observation sensitivity using LETKF SondeSurfaceAircraft N. OBS8192154151390 Sensitivity 4616.63145.389637740.66 Sensitivity/num ber 0.56340.0094322.715155 Forecast error contribution 18428.8818188.11257.9684 2012080612 :Forecast error contribution :N Obs :Sensitivity Spin-up2012. 08. 03. 12 UTC ~ 2012. 08. 04. 12 UTC experiment2012. 08. 05. 00 UTC ~ 2012. 08. 06. 12 UTC(8 cases)

27 Ocean DA and forecasting

28 28 Short-range global ocean forecasting Seasonal prediction in KMA (GloSea-5) ocean initial fields Improvement of regional ocean forecasting in KMA lateral condition Objective ( application in KMA ) History Introduction of NEMO-CICE and NEMOVAR from UK Met Office (2012.7) - Pre-operational version of codes Short-range hindcast simulation - start from 2010/06/10 (currently, running at 2010/08/ ) - using QCed obs. and NWP fluxes of UKMO Development of pre-processing system (2013.1~12.) - Observations: gathering observations and quality control (NEMOQC) - Fluxes: extraction from KMA NWP and interpolation to model (ORCA025) Purpose and status

29 29 Hindcast Results 29 10/Jun/2010 ~ 15/Jun/2010 Comparison: SSH

30 30 Implementation of NEMO/NEMOVAR at KMA is on going. Next year, works on the post-processing will be conducted we will move a pre-operational this Year. The assessment will also include inter-comparison with other reanalysis data, and comparison to independent data (e.g., surface drifter) The work on diagnosis of the NEMO/NEMOVAR will be started. KMA has a plan to replace a current regional ocean model (ROMS) by regional-NEMO/NEMOVAR system. (northwestern Pacific Ocean with 1/12 deg.) Summary & Plan

31 Development at KIAPS

32 32 3D global hydrostatic model Cubed Sphere horizontal grid (CAM-SE) Lorenz grid hybrid / Finite difference in vertical(70 layers) ne30np4(~ 1 o ×1 o ) Plug-in Selected physics modules & dynamic core in own model framework Develop suitable physics(convection, PBL) around 10 km resolution Jan. 2012 mean zonal wind Jan. 2012 mean precipitation

33 33 Developing Non-hydrostatic dynamic core Develop 2-D slice model to test compressible non-hydrostatic equations Develop 3-D in 2014(IMEX, CG in horizontal, FE in vertical)

34 34 Data assimilation Develop basic components for DA –Ensemble DA using LETKF on cubed sphere grid –Minimization & variable conversion using spectral element method for variation method –Developing 4DEnVar following 5 years using developed components –Surface, sonde, AMSU-A, IASI, AIRS data processing developed U V T q Result from OSSE exp. Using Ensemble DA No DA Sonde Sonde+AIRS


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