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Nuclear Power Generation in Small States

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1 Nuclear Power Generation in Small States
Charles Grant International Centre for Environmental and Nuclear Sciences Before starting I would just like to comment on the relevancy of this conference, a simple search for nuclear power this morning on google news resulted in a about 14,100 hits, many of them less than 24 hours old. The mention of nuclear power seems to be a lightning rod for comments both good and bad. And I too have my opinion which I will share with you today

2 World Energy Needs the most critical: Political Economic Environmental
The provision of energy has become one of the most critical: Political Economic Environmental Developmental and Survival issues in the world. A developing country such as Jamaica is also dependent upon a future supply of secure, affordable, safe and clean energy.

3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Without access to Energy, the poorer nations of the world cannot develop

4 Annual per capita electricity use. kWh
HDI long and healthy life adult literacy rate gross domestic product

5 Predicted Energy Consumption
Demand for energy is predicted to increase substantially over the next two decades as both population growth and increasing standards of living for many people in developing countries will cause strong growth in energy demand, expected to be over 2% per year Source: OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2006

6 World Electricity Generation
Most~ 64% of electricity in the world is generated by fossil fuels

7 Electricity Generation in Jamaica
In the past seven years, the price per barrel of crude spiked to a high of $147, increasing from $28 in 2003 and settling (temporarily) between $80 and $110 in the last year ~98% of electricity in Jamaica was generated by oil, consuming a total of 6.5 million barrels of oil. was imported for electricity generation (25.6 in total), in light of the world oil situation, things will, in the not too distant future push the cost of electricity beyond many consumers. Although coal and natural gas will still be relatively plentiful their prices will follow the decline of oil production, therefore large-scale conversion to Liquid Natural Gas (LNG), starting with a proposed 250 Mw of power, though a most important addition, does not remove the need for long-term planning for cheaper cleaner energy production The proposed large scale switch to LNG, though a most important addition, does not remove the need for long-term planning for cheaper cleaner energy production. 26.3 Bbl

8 Global Oil Reserve, 1348 Thousand Million Barrels as of 2011
It has been 30 years since the world endured the first major oil crisis in the early 1970s; the Middle East region still controls a little less than two-thirds of the world’s oil supply and is still in turmoil. Increasing demands for energy, particularly from developing countries, as well as higher oil extraction costs in the Middle East, have pushed the price of oil well above US$70 per barrel. In the past two years, the price per barrel of crude oil has more than doubled, increasing from $28 in 2003 to a high of over $70 in 2005

9 Although fluctuations in oil prices are not unusual, they have in the past been mainly due to conflict in the middle east.

10 Hubert Prediction Curve
However, we must consider that over the past 20 years consumption of oil has outstripped the discovery of potentially new sources by a factor of two 2. Many analysts now believe that production capacity will begin to decline by about 2013 The curve shows a peak in 2009 followed by a decline in production dropping to zero near the year 2090.

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12 Environmental Impact of Fossil Fuel
The consensus of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is that global warming is a real and significant environmental threat during the next century, even if fossil fuel use continues at present global levels. The consensus of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is that global warming is a real and significant environmental threat during the next century, even if fossil fuel use continues at present global levels.

13 Environmental and health impacts
Annual health related damages that are not presently included in the price of energy. In addition to reduced carbon footprints, wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear have very small external costs in comparison to fossil fuels including gas. The hidden health and environmental costs of energy production and consumption in the United States could exceed $120 billion Annually ($63 billion from coal alone) (National Academy of Science, 2005)

14 Renewable energy Sources in Jamaica
Renewable energy sources such as solar; wind, tides and waves do not provide directly either continuous base-load power, or peak-load power when it is needed. Jamaica produced 6.3 TWh of electricity Renewable energy sources such as solar; wind, tides and waves do not to provide directly either continuous base-load power, or peak-load power when it is needed and our potential for hydropower (118 MW) 8 is not sufficient for current demand. The Wigton Wind Farm project in Manchester has a total capacity of 20.7 MW (potential for 70 MW) which is expected to run at an average capacity factor of 35% 9. The use of biomass in Jamaica is in the region of 1.2 million barrels fuel oil equivalent. However, none of the biomass processes are used for electricity generation. Renewable energy sources are therefore limited to some 10-20% of the capacity of our electricity grid, so other sources seem necessary to reduce dependence upon fossil fuels. Some 22.3MW of hydro-electric plants (7 units) are installed and there is potential for another 100 MW. The conventional construction cost is approximately US$ 2,300/kW. The proposed 6,370 kW plant in Maggotty will cost US$3,709 per kilowatt (Data from OUR). The wind farm at Wigton was commissioned in 2004, at a cost of US$26 million. It is rated at 20.7 MW but averages 7 MW due to wind speed variations. It is proposed to add a further nine 2 MW turbines almost doubling the nominal installed wind capacity to 38.7 MW. This does not include the cost of standby capacity for periods when the turbines cannot operate.

15 Alternative Electricity Generation
The use of solar water heaters is growing and there are some demonstration photovoltaic units. Photovoltaic prospects would be improved with net metering. It is expected that bagasse and waste to energy conversion will increase renewable energy usage relative to the current level of ~ 5%, towards 15% by There is potential but one of the concerns is the substitution of energy crops for food crops and the predicted climate changes will make local food production even more urgent. If the proposed refinery expansion materializes, pet coke could contribute 100MW at a cost of approximately US$300 million. This would contribute significantly to diversification but it now seems unlikely due to funding requirements.

16 Why Consider Nuclear? Nuclear offers: a near-zero emissions option
long-term stability on generation cost demonstrated and established technology: 14,000 reactor-years of operating experience Applications for both electricity & high temperature heat generation (Fuel cells/desalination) So what does this tell us? The current economic world power and the potentially new centre of economic power have both concluded that the massive amounts of fossil free energy required to continue or even sustained their economic growth at present, can only be provided by nuclear power.

17 Nuclear Environmentalist
Some of the world's most influential greens have had a reversal of opinion on nuclear power. These include Gaia theorist James Lovelock, Green-peace cofounder Patrick Moore, and the late Bishop Hugh Montefiore, a longtime board member of Friends of the Earth. Many persons now see nuclear power as the only way, at present, to drastically reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. Much to the chagrin of many anti nuclear environmentalists some of the world's most influential greens have had a reversal of opinion on nuclear power. These include Gaia theorist James Lovelock and Green-peace cofounder Patrick Moore. Many persons now see nuclear power as the only way, at present, to drastically reduce the emission of greenhouse gases.

18 1973-1995, the use of nuclear worldwide avoided the burning of fossil fuels by about
8.9 billion tons of coal 56 trillion cubic feet of gas 10 billion barrels of oil For the same period the world's nuclear energy plants reduced emissions by 6.1 billion tons of carbon 219 million tons of sulphur dioxide. 98 million tons of nitrogen oxide.

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20 Direct Comparison per MWe
700 MWe Coal-Fired 700 MWe Nuclear (PBMR) Coal burned: 2,000,000 tons per year 1.5 tons uranium per year Ash dumped: 600,000 tons per year Spent fuel: 30 tons of pebbles per year Air burned: 2,000,000 m3 PER HOUR Nil CO2: 6,000,000 tons per year SO2: 400,000 tons per year NO2: 100,000 tons per year Smoke: 2, m3 PER HOUR

21 long-term stability on generation cost
The cost is based upon Operations, maintenance and fuel. Coal and nuclear energy provide the most cost stable means of electricity generation. Interesting to note is the close correlation between oil and gas. The peaks and troughs shown relate directly middle east conflicts.

22 ~38% increase ~20% increase ~4% increase
The stability observed for coal in the previous chart was an artifact of a steadily declining coal market, however with more countries around world becoming more energy hungry, this may not always be the case. The largest cost in nuclear power is the relatively large initial capitol investment for construction, the cost of nuclear fuel has a minimal impact on unit cost of electricity generation. (50% gas increase ~38% unit increase) (50% coal increase ~20% unit increase) (50% gas nuclear ~%4 unit increase)

23 Nuclear Shares of National Electricity Generation, 2006
Globally, there are 440 operating nuclear power plants, with 23 under construction. Many countries already depend heavily on nuclear power, such as France which generates 78% of its electricity thru nuclear energy. Fuente: Power Reactor Information System; en

24 Number of Reactors Under Construction in the World (as of July 2010)
Reactors being constructed, 67 % in Asia 147 reactors ordered around the world, 56 % in Asia Finland and France are building the first nuclear plants in Europe since 1986 In recent years Asia has been the only region in the world where electricity-generation using nuclear power has grown significantly. East and South Asia alone account for almost 23% of the world’s reactors, 80% of all reactors under construction are also being built in this region. In addition there are plans to build about a further 50 with in the next 20 years.

25 Operating Life-Time Extensions in the USA
As of June 2009, the NRC has extended from 40 to 60 years the licenses of 54 reactors, more than half of the US total. Currently, the NRC is examining license renewal application for 16 more units. more than 15 additional applications are expected to be submitted by 2013. The US reactors are now typically running at 90% of capacity compared to 72% capacity in 1990. Equivalent to ~47 new Reactors Over the past five years the United States although not publicly pushing nuclear energy has granted extensions of the operating lifetimes of their nuclear power plants from 40 to 60 years. To date 32 reactors have been granted extensions and a further 43 reactors are either under evaluation for extension or have expressed an intent to extend their reactor lifetime. The US reactors are now typically running at 90% of capacity compared to 72% capacity in 1990.

26 countries actively considering nuclear energy programmes, Nov 2009
Region Countries Central and Southern Africa Nigeria, Ghana, Uganda, Namibia Central and southern Asia Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Bangladesh South East Asia Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Australia, New Zealand Middle East and North Africa Iran, Gulf states including UAE, Yemen, Israel, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Algeria, Morocco Europe Italy, Albania, Portugal, Norway, Poland, Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Ireland, Turkey South America Chile, Ecuador, Venezuela

27 Global Nuclear Market 2005 2015 2025 2040 80 481 1,012 GW
Global demand 3,983 4,593 5,501 7,189 Current nuclear capacity 372 328 179 66 Projected future nuclear % 9.3% 8.9% 12% 15.0% Future nuclear capacity 408 660 1,078 Replacement existing nuclear 44 193 305 New nuclear sites 36 288 707 TOTAL NEW NUCLEAR BUILD 80 481 1,012 Source: International Energy Outlook 2007 – Energy Information Agency, US Department of Energy

28 Comparative Costs

29 Comparison of electricity generation parameters including costs
Typical range of capital costs (US$/kW) Capacity Factor (%) Fuel Costs (USC/kWh) Total Costs (US Cents/kWh) Typical Duty Hydro (RoR)* 68 0.00 As Available Wind 29 Nuclear 90 0.71 Base Load Steam (Coal) 85 2.61 Combined cycle (Gas) 80 6.76 Turbines (Gas) 30 9.35 Peaking Combined Cycle (ADO)* 18.37 Steam (HFO)** 25.22 Turbines (ADO) 25.41 Run of River*, **Automotive Diesel Oil, ***Heavy Fuel Oil These costs are overnight costs and do not include financing, specific site conditions, specific environment and safety requirements as may be imposed on specific projects. It is intended for comparison only.

30 Established Technology
In the initial phases of nuclear power generation, scales of economy had encouraged large nuclear power plants, typically 1000 Mwe, too large for a country of our size to manage, or indeed fund. Today, due partly to the high capital cost of large power reactors generating electricity via the steam cycle and partly to consideration of public perception, there is a move to develop smaller units.

31 Generation III-plus These designs rely completely on the passive safety systems instead of grid-powered, diesel-fueled, or battery back-up electricity, in the event of an accident. These are designs that have fully functional passive safety systems that have the ability to function at least 72 hours without AC electrical power or external cooling water. The Westinghouse's AP1000 design (Generation III) circulates cool outside air around a steel containment vessel, and drains water by gravity from a tank positioned atop the vessel. The system can provide cooling for up to 72 hours. After that, a small diesel generator is meant to supply power to pump water from an onsite storage container into the reactor core and spent fuel pool at 100 gallons per minute for up to four days. The system could then be replenished by adding water with a fire truck and pump. (That approach doesn't work with the Generation II Fukishima Daiichi plant, because cooling there still relies on active operation of the plant's own pumping system.) Advanced passive designs will make boiling-water nuclear reactors 10 to 100 times safer than their active predecessors.

32 Is Nuclear Power Feasible for Small States?
Today, due partly to the high capital cost of large power reactors generating electricity via the steam cycle and partly to consideration of public perception, there is a move to develop smaller units. Supply future worldwide needs for electricity and hydrogen Improvements in sustainability, safety, and economics 200 MW ~US$ 300,000,000 An international consortium of 11 countries has selected six such reactor types, the so-called Generation IV reactors that will be developed over the next 30 to 50 years. These reactors are typically less than 200MWe and should cost less than 300 million dollars each to construct 12. The Generation IV initiative is aimed at developing nuclear energy systems that can supply future worldwide needs for electricity, hydrogen, and other products. This class of reactor would have significant improvements in sustainability, safety, and economics over present-day reactors. Fast Reactors for Transmutation fuel Cycles?

33 Atomenergoproekt, Russia
Reactor MWe Expected Date Manufacturer Comment KLT-40 38.5 2008 OKBM, Russia Mature design well tested in icebreakers 3-4 years refuelling cycle. Operated from a barge. NP-300 2012 Areva, France Submarine power plant design with passive safety systems. Aimed at export markets for power, heat and desalination. HTR-PM 200 2013 INET, Beijing, China Similar to PBMR, 9% enriched fuel, expected 60-year operational life. 8% enriched fuel PBMR 165 Eskom, South Africa, et al Improved safety, economics and proliferation resistance; expected 40-year operational life; 8% enriched fuel. IRIS-100 100 2015 Westinghouse Generation 3+ reactor, Enrichment is 5%, 5 years refuelling cycle. VK-300 300 2017 Atomenergoproekt, Russia 6 scheduled to be built in eastern Russia SMART KAERI, S. Korea Advanced safety features with a design life of 60 years, with a 3-year refuelling cycle. Demonstration plant to be in operation in 2012 CAREM 27 2018 INVAP, Argentina Fuel is standard 3.4% refuelled annually. It is a mature design TOSHIBA- 4S 10-50 Toshiba, Japan Fuel is uranium hydride (UH3), 5% enriched in 235 U, life-time core

34 The Hyperion Power Module
This reactor was invented at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico and the Hyperion Power Generation, Inc. (HPG), was formed to bring the Hyperion reactor to market and holds the exclusive license. As shown by the human scale, the Hyperion reactor is quite small, about 1.5 metres wide and 2 metres high. The shipping weight is tons. Hyperion (25 MWe) is expected to cost about US$30 million per unit. Already they report receipt of over 100 firm orders, largely from the oil and electricity industries. mPower mPower is a smaller than rail car sized, modular, passively safe, advanced light water reactor (ALWR) with a unit output of 160 MWe. The reactor lifetime is rated at 60 years and used fuel is stored in a spent fuel pool within the containment, 4 year fuel cycle. The plant consists of a cylindrical pressure vessel 23m by 4.5m (75ft by 15 ft) that contains all the components of the nuclear steam supply, system core (standard fuel enriched to 5%), control rod assemblies, primary loop pumps, steam generator and pressurizer.

35 Toshiba 4S The Toshiba 4S reactor is a sodium cooled, fast reactor with a steel clad compact core made of a uranium/plutonium/zirconium alloy. Combined with a compact steam turbine secondary system, it will generate 10 MW of electrical power, scalable to 50MWe, for 30 years without refueling. The reactor would be located in a sealed, cylindrical vault 30 m (98 ft) underground, while the building above ground would be 22 x 16 x 11 m (72 × 52.5 x 36 ft) in size. The entire system can be accommodated in less than ½ acre of land. The reactor module is designed to be: • Replaceable in order to provide the capability of extending the plant life beyond 30 years. • Capable of being installed and ready for sodium fill within 6 months after delivery to site. • The nuclear steam supply system (NSSS) is designed to operate for 30 years. Any NSSS component not capable of meeting the 30-year design life is designed to be replaceable. • The plant is factory built and can be transported by road, rail and ship.

36 Barge Mounted Reactors
CAREM-25 Argentina is developing their CAREM-25 which is a modular pressurized water reactor with integral steam generators designed for use as an electricity generator (27 MWe or up to 100 MWe), as a research reactor or for water desalination (with 8 MWe in cogeneration configuration). CAREM has its entire primary coolant system within the reactor pressure vessel, self-pressurised and relying entirely on convection. The fuel is standard 3.4% enriched PWR fuel, with burnable poison, and is refueled annually. It is a mature design which could be deployed within a decade. It is also a prototype for a larger reactor sized 100MWe or 300MWE. Construction is planned to begin by end The estimated cost is about US$200 million. Barge Mounted Reactors The KLT-40S is well proven in icebreakers and is now proposed for wider use. A 150 MWt unit produces 38.5 MWe gross. These are designed to run 3-4 years between refueling and it is envisaged that they will be operated in pairs to allow for outages (70% capacity factor), with onboard refueling capability and spent fuel storage. At the end of a 12-year operating cycle the whole plant is taken to a central facility for overhaul and storage of spent fuel. Two units will be mounted on a 20,000 tonne barge.

37 Pebble-Bed Modular Reactor (HTR-PM)
A compact gas-cooled reactor with fuel assemblies the size of tennis balls filled with thousands of pellets of 9% U-235. Unlike light-water reactors that use water and steam, the PBMR cools its core and drives its turbines with pressurized helium. Power ~250MWe helium cooled, graphite moderated Direct cycle gas turbine High outlet temperature: 900°C Good thermal efficiency (~ 42%) ~30% improvement high fuel average burnup (~ 90 GWd/tU initially, higher later) ~100% improvement A PBMR reactor is essentially a large hopper filled with graphite pebbles, about 60 mm in diameter, each filled with thousands of UO2 fuel particles with diameters of less than 1 mm. The system is helium cooled and graphite moderated. It has an outlet temperature of 900 oC, conventional reactors around 340 oC. Thermal efficiency of 42%, conventional typically 33% and fuel burnup 80gigga watt days per ton of uranium and by time production should reach 200, conventional reactors typicaly in the region of 33 to 43 GWd/tU

38 ACCIDENTS March Three Mile Island, USA Reactor PWR, 792 MWe The Three Mile Island incident was a near thing. It was largely due to operator error but the system worked – the reactor was wrecked but no one was hurt and there was no dispersal of radioactivity. The Chernobyl Reactor 4 disaster was a steam explosion followed by another due to the ignition of hydrogen. The reactor core was exposed and radioactivity was widely dispersed and there were many deaths. Such a reactor, which did not include a containment vessel, would not have been licensed in the West, but even so, the use of the reactor at the time of the accident was not consistent with the established procedures. when the fifth largest earthquake ever recorded struck Fukushima the 3 operating reactors shut down automatically. Since the input power lines were wrecked the emergency diesel generators were used to begin removal of the decay heat. The diesels worked for about an hour before being inundated by the tsunami. This eventually lead to partial meltdown of the three cores and spent fuel rods causing large scale contamination. The lessons of these dramatic events have been well learned and safety measures have greatly improved to the extent that the nuclear industry is one of the world’s safest. April Chernobyl, a USSR Reactor RBMK, 1000 Mwe (Graphite and water moderator). March Reactors 1, 2 and 3 of the Fukushima Daiichi's six reactors were in operation at the full power rating of 1100 MWe No discussion on nuclear power could be near complete without mention of the dreaded nuclear accidents, the most notorious being the Three mile accident in 1979 and of course Chernobly in This fears are genuine, but we must also consider that many lessons had been learnt from these. Most importantly is the concept of building reactors with safety features , that are inherent within the design rather than complex additional safety systems and human intervention. Unlike the incidences at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl in 1984, if a fault occurs during reactor operations, the PBMR system, at worst, will come to a standstill and merely dissipate heat without core failure or release of radioactivity to the environment.

39 Nuclear Safety

40 Top 5 Q & A on Nuclear Waste
1. The nuclear industry still has no solution to the 'waste problem', so cannot expect support for construction of new plants until this is remedied. Reprocessing spent Fuel~ 3% HLW incorporated into borosilicate glass (vitrified nuclear waste). A piece this size would contain the total high-level waste arising from nuclear electricity generation for one person throughout a normal lifetime. 2. The transportation of this waste poses an unacceptable risk to people and the environment. Nuclear materials have been transported safely (virtually without incident and without harmful effect on anyone) since before the advent of nuclear power over 50 years ago. Transportations of nuclear materials cannot therefore be referred to as 'mobile Chernobyls'. 3. There is a potential terrorist threat to the large volumes of radioactive wastes currently being stored and the risk that this waste could leak or be dispersed as a result of terrorist action. High-level waste (HLW) and used fuel is kept in secure nuclear facilities with appropriate protection measures. Most high-level wastes produced are held as stable ceramic solids or in vitrified form (glass). Their structure is such that they would be very difficult to disperse by terrorist action, so that the threat from so-called 'dirty bombs' is not high.

41 Top 5 Q & A on NW cont. 4. Nuclear wastes are hazardous for tens of thousands of years. This clearly is unprecedented and poses a huge threat to our future generations. Many industries produce hazardous waste many of which remain in the environment permanently. In fact, the radioactivity of nuclear wastes naturally decays progressively and has a finite radiotoxic lifetime. The radioactivity of high-level wastes decays to the level of an equivalent amount of original mined uranium ore in between 1,000 and 10,000 years. 5. Manmade radiation differs from natural radiation Radiation emitted from manmade radionuclides is exactly the same form as radiation emitted from naturally-occurring radioactive materials (namely alpha, beta or gamma radiation). As such, the radiation emitted by naturally-occurring materials can not be distinguished from radiation produced by materials in the nuclear fuel cycle.

42 What does it take?

43 Enabling Framework Political Framework Responsible Owner
Regulatory Framework Merchant Operator Fuel Supply and Waste Management Finance Contract Management Training and Education Industrial Infrastructure “CONSIDERATIONS TO LAUNCH A NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAMME”

44 ICENS asked to form Committee for Nuclear Energy
Largely because of the Jamaica SLOWPOKE, a number of programmes that would contribute directly to the infrastructure necessary for development of a nuclear energy programme are already in place. These include: International Agreements and Links (a) Jamaica is a member of the IAEA and a signatory to: the Safeguards Agreement; the Additional Protocol; the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material; the Non-proliferation Treaty, the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Materials; and other international and regional agreements. (b) On behalf of the government of Jamaica, ICENS reports, to the IAEA on the traffic of nuclear materials into and out of the island, and is also responsible for Incident Reporting for Research Reactors to IAEA. (c) The United States Department of Energy (DOE) agreement to replace the present highly enriched uranium core. The process of replacement of the present SLOWPOKE core will add to our experience in the nuclear field. (d) ICENS has: (1) a series of training programmes for its own staff that could be readily expanded; (2) some of the contacts that would provide training and experience overseas, e.g.: research reactor centres in Austria, Argentina, Brazil; Canada; Mexico; the United Kingdom and the United States. (3) a national personnel monitoring service for radiation protection for Jamaica. This service can deal with all Jamaica’s needs if but slightly is improved by installation of a secondary calibration source; backup facilities to ensure against instrument failure; and additional staff training. These would probably be provided at no cost to Jamaica by the IAEA once the radiation law is in place. (4) Several staff who have been trained in detection and security of radioisotopes, and radiation protection. So what do we have now? Well at present Jamaica has the only nuclear reactor in the Caribbean. Although SLOWPOKE is small and inherently safe, it has necessitated the development of certain key features that would be required for a nuclear option. These include: National Radiation Monitoring Program Personnel radiation monitoring and surveys service provided by ICENS. Radiation Protection Law Submitted to Parliament  IAEA additional protocol to Safeguards Agreement  As signatories to the IAEA additional protocol on safeguards, ICENS, through the Director General is responsible for the national declarations to the IAEA on all nuclear proliferation materials. We are also subject to annual inspections by the IAEA. Incident Reporting System for Research Reactors Jamaica is also a part of the IAEA the Incident Reporting System for Research Reactors, (47 countries globally), with Professor Gerald Lalor as national coordinator and myself as local coordinator. ICENS asked to form Committee for Nuclear Energy

45 Summary Any alternative energy sources must be price competitive
stability of nuclear electricity costs is a major benefit Recent analyses fail to come up with any 50-year scenario based on sustainable development principles that do not depend significantly on nuclear fission to provide large-scale, highly intensive energy, along with renewables to meet small-scale low-intensity needs A resurgence in nuclear power generation over the course of the next half century both for environmental and economic reasons is therefore likely The relatively low initial capital cost, manageable size and modular nature of the Generation IV reactors make them more suitable for small and developing countries Any alternative energy sources must be price competitive stability of nuclear electricity costs is a major benefit Recent analyses fail to come up with any 50-year scenario based on sustainable development principles that do not depend significantly on nuclear fission to provide large-scale, highly intensive energy, along with renewables to meet small-scale low-intensity needs A resurgence in nuclear power generation over the course of the next half century both for environmental and economic reasons is therefore likely

46 Conclusion Ultimately the feasibility of a nuclear option for Jamaica is very much dependent upon the potential contributions that the new smaller generation of nuclear reactors prove able to make. However, there are other aspects of peaceful uses of the atom especially in the development of radiation safety; nuclear engineering, regulations and improved knowledge that we will need to continue to build upon locally if we are to undertake such a large technical project. It took South Korea 32 years from first commercial plant to exporting technology, with the goal of exporting 80 reactors by 2030 valued at 400 billion dollars! Ultimately the feasibility of a nuclear option for Jamaica is very much dependent upon the potential contributions that the new smaller generation of nuclear reactors prove able to make, so that a watch and wait approach is the most reasonable as the events unfold. However, there are other aspects of peaceful uses of the atom especially in the development of radiation safety; regulations and improved knowledge that we will need to continue to build upon locally if we are to engage in rational debate over the coming years.

47 Thank you for your attention


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