Presentation on theme: "Why Buy a SA Gold Share? February 2013. Normal health warning! I will try to equally offend everybody. This is a cut and paste presentation, but I have."— Presentation transcript:
Why Buy a SA Gold Share? February 2013
Normal health warning! I will try to equally offend everybody. This is a cut and paste presentation, but I have no doubt the originators of the slides would prefer not to be associated with this! I may not hold all these views by the end of this presentation. I have spent 34 years in an industry where honesty is not an option.
Why did people historically buy Gold Shares? Leveraged exposure to the gold price Physical golds price was declining All companies had growing production profiles Everybody had falling cash costs Growth came from acquisitions funded with shares BUT Investors had no choice but to buy shares if they wanted GOLD
Who Bought Gold Shares??
Moms and Pops – 3Gs (Believe in God, Guns and Gold) Fundamentalist belief in Golds intrinsic value Bullish on Gold Price Accepted and believed in the Gold multiple Violently Anti-hedging Specialist Gold Fund Managers They spoke their book Against diversification Anti-hedging or debt Who bought gold shares in the past?
And even Central Banks are now buying Net Purchases (tonnes)
Life in a bubble! Shares trade at multiples to NPV Cash cost is our metric of choice Shareholders wanted growth, growth and growth Dividends meant you were ex-growth BUT We had no cooking clue of what we were selling ……….
And who burst it? None of us are as stupid as all of us
In 2004 the WGC created the ETF! ETFs were inevitable, but so is death US$ 120bn of new money by-passed stocks Management and Fund managers became redundant With rising Gold prices no longer any justification for a Gold Multiple Time will tell whether ETF buyers are better investors than Central Bankers This overhang is going to result in a hangover
Our own Golden Bullet
What should our multiple be? There is no longer any justification for a Gold Multiple PE : 6 - Caters for depleting nature and uncertainty 8 - If revenue is hedged 10 - If a credible growth story 12 -Bubble territory GOLD STOCKS ARE OVER VALUED NOT UNDER VALUED
Issues we face as an Industry We are caught in a redundant model The gold bull market is mature Investors can buy gold directly We have lost the right to formulate strategy Most majors are diversifying across the value chain of exploration, developing, operating and harvesting. Investors want choice!
But we did this for you… We gave you what you wanted Growth Low cash costs No hedging You got paid well, we got paid even better and we have no investors left. ETFs ARE THE NEW GO TO STOCKS !!
JPMs view - January 29 th,2013 The SA mining industry is in crisis, in our opinion. Tactically, we continue to prefer the ETF to the senior SA gold shares under our coverage while labour climate, costs and regulatory uncertainties persist
The Gold market and how we fit into it US$ 400bn with limited consolidation Our product competes with our shares for investor Dollars Our hedging activities show how wrong we are getting the gold market Central bankers make us look smart
Industry structural issues Balance sheets were mismanaged Cash generated was badly allocated Bad ore bodies Bad Capex control Record write downs Runaway operational cost No Hedging No Debt And now the CFOs who oversaw this are running the companies!
Our investment track record
You can trust us with your money
Bloomberg – January 30 th,2013 The worlds biggest mining and steel companies have wiped about $50 billion off project valuations in the past year and the purge is poised to continue this earnings season as managers reassess expensive takeovers.
Shall we call in the undertakers?
Marikana will change the game Coalbrook (1960) redefined SA Coal mining NUM and 1984 strike changed SA mining landscape Bloody mine violence of early 1990s AngloGolds refocusing strategy Cynthia Carroll Marikana and Amcu A system that improves thru external shocks is Anti-Fragile Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Why Society cares
Specific SA risks Licence to operate Section 54s Societys views Societal cost, SLPs, EIAs, Eishkom Political concerns Creeping nationalisation and taxes Licence to close Inabilty to legally close mines Impossible to quantify liabilities Legacy costs
Us Sefricans are sooo special..
CEOs know what is wrong..
Analysts can predict the future..
Fund Managers once again know the answer.. AngloGold could also unlock value if it split into two companies: a high growth international business, and a mature high dividend paying South African company, Paulson & Co. said in the letter. Idiocy – Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups
Even journalists know what is wrong The other side of the coin is that the managers of the South African mining industry have been indolent. They have rested on hard-won laurels as the experts in deep-level hard-rock mining for too long. They have failed conspicuously to adapt to the new technologies that have been advanced with singular success elsewhere. Entrepreneurial flair has been absent. An Ernest Oppenheimer, even in the vastly changed circumstances of the 21st century, would never have been permitted the Rip van Winkel approach of modern-day managers.in intransigence. David Gleason BusinessDay 5 Feb 2013
Is breaking up the answer? Breaking up the majors may result in: Focus No blending of risks / rewards No ability to fund ego projects BUT Some lazy fund managers will hate it Stock pickers / traders will love it Real people may actually run it
JPM on SA Gold Shares – February 1 st,2013 The rand gold price is the key driver of this margin and we believe it is well supported at current levels. Equities though have not responded due to the issues clouding the business environment in SA. While the SA mining crisis prevails we see scant prospects for improved senior SA gold share ratings. So we expect the large cap. SA gold equities to underperform the metal once again in 2013.
SA Opportunities Natural currency hedge We should focus on harvesting of remaining mines New structures – but not sure about Sibanye New managers Mine level cash cost should equate to total cost Gold Price – Total Cost = Earnings = Dividends
SA GOLD Investment themes 3 Majors are like deer in the headlights To split or not to split To mechanise or not To spend capex or not Etc Sibanye is not new, nor original and assumes SA is the problem… Why would SA Inc support this?
ANG PE : 9,2 1 Year Return : - 26,5%
GFI PE : 10,2 1 Year Return : -12,3 %
HAR PE :9,9 1 Year Return : - 37%
SA GOLD Investment themes (Continued) We have had spectacular Junior failures Mid-caps like DRD and PAR have been re-rated After 120 years the rules are not flexible Hard to run a SA mining company without SA shareholders But I want to build a big company…..
PAN PE : n/a 1 Year Return : +31%
DRD PE : 8,5 1 Year Return : + 40,7%
VIL PE : 4,7 1 Year Return : -34,5%
WITS PE : n/a 1 Year Return : -45%
Exam Question: Show me the cash? Are we really making cash? What have we done with last years cash? Do our investors trust us with their money?
Dont trust us with cash
You want WHAT???
Pessimists Conclusion Lets live in hope and die in despair! or perhaps Hope may not be warranted at this time?
But I am an optimist I apologize for the mess my generation has imposed on yours. I wish I could have left you a better legacy. I just hope I have left you a measure of courage to face what we have done, and a measure of hope to do something about it. Nancy Kline Time to Think