Presentation on theme: "The Age P R O F I OF Presentation by: Karlis M. Kirsis Managing Partner World Steel Dynamics Inc. www.worldsteeldynamics.com T S."— Presentation transcript:
The Age P R O F I OF Presentation by: Karlis M. Kirsis Managing Partner World Steel Dynamics Inc. T S
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS Volcanic Activity: The Steel Market
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS Death Spirals and Volcanoes (HRB -- $ per tonne, Tier I mills, FOB the port) $420 Jan 2006 $450 Mar. 2006
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS HRB Pricing Troika: USA, China and World
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS Dollars-per-Euro drives World HRB Price
Age of SteelmakersMetallics WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS
Spread: USA Autobundle less USA #1 Heavy Melting
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS Return of the Steel Phoenix Profitability
China Dominates Steel Growth WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS
Chinese Fixed Asset Investment Bubble
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS Global Steelmaking Metallics Requirements
China Region Metallics Requirement WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS
Global Metallics Requirements excluding China
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS 2006 Outlook
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS Big Picture Global economic news appears favorable. Economic activity continues to expand notwithstanding oil prices in the mid-high $60s. In China, the economy has shifted to an even faster growth rate in the past six months. In the USA, the economy is strong, with signs that non-residential construction may rise 10% or more this year. In Germany, business confidence is up sharply. In Japan, confidence is also up and capital spending by manufacturers is rising.
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS The Odds for Non-Chinese Mills Steel shortage – 50% odds. High operating rate – 45% odds. Sizable oversupply outside of China – 5% odds.
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS The Odds for Chinese Mills Steel shortage – 5% odds. High operating rate – 35% odds. Reduced operating rate in China – 60% odds.
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS The USA mills are benefiting from a favorable supply/demand balance reflecting lagging steel production, relatively low imports of both steel products and semi-finished steel and good underlying demand. Based on the recent annualized steel production rate and the imports of semis, the USA mills at present have a shipment capability of only about 104 million net tons versus the shipment forecast requirement of 109+ million tons. This shortfall of steel deliveries is why hot-rolled band in the USA spot market is priced at the high level of about $615 per metric tonne, FOB the steel mill. USA – Sole Strong Region
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS USA Crude Steel Production Difficulties?
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS USA Steel Consumption/Shipment Outlook (million short tons)
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS HRB and Other Items: Price Forecast
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS The profit performance of the steels sheet- producing group, will probably be better than that for the long-products group. One reason is that the steel sheet segment of the industry has grown far more concentrated in recent years. Age of Profits
Improved Steel Cycle Portion of the Steel Cycle For World Spot Export Pricing Past 25 years Next 10 years Shake-out21%5% Bad times2525 Average times2530 Good times1230 Boom times1710 WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS
Steelbenchmarker.com A global steel benchmark pricing system designed to provide a reliable set of benchmark prices that will become trusted by steel buyers and sellers the world over by the end of Over the next few years, it will become the foundation for an extraordinary surge in the trading of financial instruments for the hedging of steel price risks. Benchmark prices will be published for hot-rolled band, cold- rolled coil, standard plate and rebar in each of these regions: the USA, Western Europe, China and the world export market. Also: a USA shredded steel scrap price benchmark. Register to provide pricing opinion data, and receive benchmark prices the moment they are published. Go to
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS Register Now Steels New Game : Bigger Bets – Bigger Jackpots SSS XXI – United States Co-sponsored by World Steel Dynamics and AMM June 19-21, 2006 Sheraton Towers New York New York City, USA