Presentation on theme: "Growth of Industry after the Civil War. Changes in Industry Struture Increase in the importance of manufacturing Decrease in importance of agriculture."— Presentation transcript:
Changes in Industry Struture Increase in the importance of manufacturing Decrease in importance of agriculture Consider labor force statisitics
Labor Force Expansion, 1860–1910: Select 1910 Multiples of 1860 Notice number of workers in agriculture is not declining, but it is growing more slowly that other industries.
Changing Industry structure Some of this change is predictable – Income elasticity of food is low As income increase less of the increase is spent on food – Income elasticity of manufactured goods is higher Also see a change in what industries are important
The 10 Largest Industries, 1860 and 1910 (by Value Added)
What accounts for changes in industry structure? Notice size of industries grow but some grow more than others Increases in income effect demand for goods differently. Technological changes is not the same in all industries – Alters relative prices – Alters quality – Reduced demand for woolen clothes, wagons in 1910 – Increased demand for machinery, railroad cars
Changing Industry Structure Capital/labor ratio 18401.0 18501.24 18601.82 18702.25 18802.51 18903.78 19004.56 Increased importance of capital in manufacturing, leads to bigger firms
Source of Technological change Power Sources – # of steam engines doubled from 1860 to 1880 and then doubled again from 1880-1900 – Electric power began to replace steam power in late 1880 – By 1890 could power machines with electric motors
New machines – Tobacco industry Bonsack cigarette machines 60,000 a day, much more than could have been rolled by hand. – Grain processing machines lead to modern cereal industry – Boots/shoes Goodyear welt process
Average costs Av Cost 1 Av Cost 2 $ Qq1q2 Technological change causes average cost curve to shift from 1 to 2. Firm size should shift from q1 to q2. Firms will be larger. Also expect a decrease in price of product.
Steel Industry Innovations – Bessemer Process and open hearth process kept iron in liquid form though out process of making steel Result was increase in size of Blast Furnaces and increase in steel production – 1860 Blast furnaces produced 6-10 tons of pig iron per day. By 1910 average production was 500 tons per day
Steel Industry Large increase in steel production and big decrease in price of steel rails Decrease in price of machinery made of steel – Price of farm machinery falls over 50% from 1870 to 1910 1873$120/ton 189817/ton 190228/ton
Oil Industry Before Civil War, most oil is used for lighting – 20% from coal – 80% whale oil Civil War disrupts whaling, increase in oil prices (First US energy crisis) Increases incentives to drill for oil – Oil is discovered in PA, big decrease in price 1880, 66% of families use oil for heating
Oil Industry Crude oil is refined into kerosene 1860 1 million barrels, cost $12-16/barrel 1900 63 million barrels, cost < $1/ barrel Oil is first distributed by Railroads, then technological changes allows for distribution by pipelines.
Changes in Firm Structure Increase in Plant size – Increase in K/L ratio How do firms increase in size – Horizontal Growth Bigger plants and/or multi-plant firms Merger – Vertical integration (Merger) New forms of Ownership – Modern corporation All of these trends are related
Vertical Integrations Different stages of the production process combined in one firm What determines make or buy decisions? – Assume the firms will choose the least cost method Examples from steel and oil.
Two types of Vertical Integration Technological changes allows pig iron to be transferred to steel plant in molten form Blast furnaces and steel plants integrate Backward integration into iron mining Result is large firms Even as early as 1870 only 10 firms producing steel in US In 1901 US Steel has 65% of market
Oil Technological change increases the size of refineries Refiners first use railroads to distribute oil By 1880 refiners integrate forward into pipelines and backwards into oil production By 1890, fully integrated
Legal Changes- Rise of the corportation Prior to 1880, most firms in the US were owner managed firms which were not incorporated. Increase in the number of incorporated firms begins after the Civil War Change in the types of firms that are incorporated, large industrial firm – First jt. stock companies are trading companies or banks or railroads
What does it mean to be incorporated? Corporation – Ownership in the firm can be sold to many investors – Firm is a legal person. – Limited Liability, Firms liability is not the owners liability Early Jt stock companies do not have limited liability
Benefits of incorporation Spread risk over many owners Diversification Shares can be traded – Incorporation and stock market growth go together – Before 1890, there were few industrial stocks traded on New York exchange – By 1914, rare to find a large industrial firm which was not publically held
Costs of incorporation Separation of Ownership and Control What keeps managers acting in the shareholders best interest?
Changes in Industry Structure Increase in size of firms, both vertically and horizontally and change in structure of firms cause concern about monopoly power Trusts (Organizations of firms to control price and output) and mergers also caused concern Firms with monopoly power can restrict output and charge higher prices than firms in a competitive industry.
Firm Growth Growth can happen as a result of increase in plant size – Economies of Scale – New technologies change shape of average cost curve – Should reduce costs and price Larger firms are also more likely to have monopoly power.
Firm growth Firms could also grow large to increase monopoly power. (Ability to set price above marginal cost) Firms could also achieve power to set price above marginal cost through price fixing agreements. – If there are no economies of scale this would be cheaper than increasing firm size either through growth or merger. – Such agreements were not initially illegal. (Trusts become common) – Growth can happen through horizontal mergers
Mergers Horizontal Merger wave 1879-1893 Vertical Mergers 1898- 1904 Lots of public concern about these large firms. Led to the Sherman Anti-trust Act of 1890
When should mergers be illegal? Economists answer is it depends If merger creates monopoly power and no efficiency or cost savings it should be illegal If merger creates no monopoly power it should not be illegal – Vertical mergers generally do not create monopoly power If merger does both, then court should decide which is larger
Sherman Antitrust passed in 1890 Outlawed every contract, combination in the form of a trust or otherwise or conspiracy in restraint of trade… illegal. Also made it illegal to monopolize or attempt to monopolize an industry Not clear what this meant. Determined by the courts
Important Cases 1899 Addyston Pipe and Steel Company v. United States ruled cast iron pipe pool illegal Price fixing is illegal per se – only defense is we did not do it Economist agree that cartels create nothing but dead weight loss
What about mergers or large firms? 1904 Northern Securities ruled mergers for monopoly power were illegal Court ruled against Standard Oil in 1909 Court ruled in favor of US Steel in 1920 – Size alone is no offense Mergers or large firms are not per se illegal
Two Questions What about mergers during this period were they for monopoly power or cost savings? How were Antitrust laws enforced? What were the effect on efficiency?
Cause of mergers? If mergers increase monopoly power, prices should increase – If there are no barriers to entry high prices should attract entry and firms would loose monopoly power and prices would go down eventually If mergers were to lower costs and take advantage of economies of scale prices should decrease
Market Share 4 firm concentration ratio – Share of industry output produced by 4 largest firms Can be misleading No clear link between structure and performance Concentration does not increase by that much Chandler finds evidence that mergers for market power loose market share over time
Industrial Concentration NE 1860MW 1860 S 186019011963 Machinery 3015254193 Iron Bars 29100374650 Lumber 1069.511 Cotton Goods 1499302030
Prices Wholesale price index declines during this period Price of steel rails falls from $120/ton in 1873 to $17/ton in 1898 and then is stable at $28/ton from 1902-1919 Price of farm machinery falls 55% from 1870 to 1910 Price of oil falls from $24.67 in 1865 to $3.36 in1884
Evidence does not suggest monopoly power in spite of mergers, trust and other price fixing agreements Consistent with what economic theory would predict
Antitrust Economic theory suggests practices which do not increase monopoly power should not be prohibited Assumes consumer welfare is goal Law may have other goals – Protect competitors How were cases decided? What was effect on efficiency?
Standard Oil Formed in 1872 by JD Rockefeller – Refining – Cleveland, favorable for Rail transport – 10 % of refining market – Market competitive – Attempt to form cartel in 1870s failed – Increases size of Standard oil through merger to get rebate from RR – Integrates forwards into pipelines in 1880 Reduced number of firms
Integrates backwards into oil drilling in late 1880s Fully integrated by 1890s Market share in 1880 was 95%
Justice dept brought suit in 1911 – Predatory behavior in acquiring rivals, reducing price to reduce value of assets – Not clear this would pay, must be able to increase price latter on and keep entry out – Not clear whether they did this Court ruled against Standard Oil – Broken up into 33 companies
What was effect of decision on efficiency? Price had fallen from $24.67 in 1873 to $3.36 in 1884 Market share was falling as well Not clear there was any effect 188095 189962 190670 191164
US Steel Andrew Carnegie pioneered new techniques in steel production – Carnegie Steel had 15-20 % of market in 1898 JP Morgan created Federal Steel by merging several companies in 1898. About same size as Carnegie Steel US Steel result of merger of these two companies in 1901. Had about 65% of market.
Justice dept brought suit in 1911, not decided until 1920 Court ruled in favor of US Steel in 1920 – Size alone is no offense Market share was 40% in 1929 Prices 1873120/ton 189817 1902-191928
US Steel was not dissolved because it did not lower prices competitively Good for competitors, not for consumers
Overall, not clear what effect antitrust laws have had on industry structure or efficiency