Presentation on theme: "Where is the Love? Hong Kongs search for a new direction under the next Chief Executive 14 February 2012."— Presentation transcript:
Where is the Love? Hong Kongs search for a new direction under the next Chief Executive 14 February 2012
1 Center, 2 Surveys 1. Centering on the election context & challenges facing Chief Executive candidates A. Random sample of the General Public B.Random sample of Functional Constituency Registered Voters B.Conducted first 2 weeks of January
Identity Feelings on Chinas National Day The National Context of the Chief Executive Election
T:38 How does the celebration of 1 st October National Day make you feel?
T:58 Feelings by Income/Class (GP/FC no significant difference)
Do you support/oppose the school children to sing National Anthem and have flag raising every day? From the October 2011 NDI survey
identity How would you describe yourself?
A Fundamental Shift?
T:60 Are you currently satisfied/dissatisfied with the performance of the Chinese Gov in ruling China? (GenPub)
T:64 Proportion of Identities by Feelings on 1 Oct
T:68 Which do you consider most important to you personally to see protected & promoted?
T:69 Most important HK & China identity by Feelings on 1 Oct (GP)
T:71 Most important HK & China id by ID choices (GP)
satisfaction The Governance Context of Hong Kongs Chief Executive Election
III/T:1 III/T:1 Are you currently satisfied/dissatisfied with performance of PRC Gov dealing with HKSAR affairs?
III/T:7 III/T:7 Satisfaction with performance of SAR Government dealing with PRC Government FC: 51%Diss/43%Satisfied
III/T:12 Satisfaction with performance of PRC Gov in ruling China FC: 53%Diss/38%Satisfied
III/T:17 Satisfaction with performance of HKSAR Gov FC: 60%Diss/37%Satisfied
Politics The Local Political Context of Hong Kongs Chief Executive Election
IV/T:1 Of the political parties in Legco, which party if any do you feel represents or protects your interests best?
IV/T:2 Which party best represents, Recoded and Comparative Pro-Establishment: DAB, FTU, LP, NPP Pro-Democracy: DP, CivP Pro-Labour: LSD, PP, CTU
The voters & the public
The FC voters
Participation previous 6 months
IV/T:16 Vote for CE by Which party represents best General Public FC Voters
IV/T:19 If no pro-democracy candidate, then who by Which party represents best General Public FC Voters
Issues The Public Opinion Context of the Chief Executive Election
V/T:3 In your view, what is most urgent issue that should be addressed by candidates?
Issue Reclassifications Unemployment, social welfare cuts, cross-border crime, influx of immigrants and wages and working hours are reclassified as socio-economic stress issues. Systemic reform includes healthcare reform, educational reform, constitutional reform and environmental protectionall of which call for change. The wealth gap, housing and economic growth and other categories are not reclassified
Age & FC/GP General Public FC Voters
V/T:9&10 Which candidate would vote for by Most urgent issues candidates should address General Public FC Voters
Fairness VI/T:1 Do you think the government currently makes policies in general fairly, helping or hurting all parties equally, or unfairly, favoring the interests of some over others?
VI/T:4 Fairness of policy making by Most urgent issues candidates should address (GP)
VI/T:6 Fairness of policy making by Which candidate would you vote for (GP) Those who would vote for Tang say by larger margins policy making is fair
trust VI/T:8 Who of the Chief Executive candidates do you trust most to handle relations with:
Competence VI/T:9 Which of the Chief Executive candidates do you think would do the best job of:
VI/T:19 Are you satisfied/dissatisfied with Govs performance on this problem? (GP) Highest dissatisfaction since 2003
VI/T:20 Which CE candidate do you think would do the best job to improve govs performance on your problem of greatest personal concern?
Constitutional REform The Issue that Dare Not Speak its Name
VII/T:6 Would you support/oppose the following: Change the CE nominating process to a popular primary system with the top 2 candidates competing in the direct election?
VII/T:8 Would you support or oppose the following: Reform FCs by eliminating corporate voting and equalizing, as much as possible, the number of voters in each constituency?
Table 10 Would you support or oppose the following: Abolish Functional Constituencies completely?
601 General Public interviewees/246 Functional Constituency voters by random telephone survey Information of previous surveys on http://www.hktp.orghttp://www.hktp.org Research conducted by the Hong Kong Transition Project funded by a grant from CDI http://www.cdiorg.hkhttp://www.cdiorg.hk
Hong Kong Transition Project Established in 1988, headquartered at HKBUEstablished in 1988, headquartered at HKBU Multi-disciplinary, multi-national, multi-institutional study on the transition from colonial to citizen ruleMulti-disciplinary, multi-national, multi-institutional study on the transition from colonial to citizen rule Academic, independent, pro-good governanceAcademic, independent, pro-good governance Funded by competitive research grants from governments, commissioned research from Non-governmental organizations. Two surveys commissioned annually by CDIFunded by competitive research grants from governments, commissioned research from Non-governmental organizations. Two surveys commissioned annually by CDI Members with partisan commitments do not participate in research in which they may have an interest nor see reports before public release. The P.I. is NOT a member of any party in Hong Kong but is an elected representative of the Higher Education sub-sector of the Chief Executive Election Committee, as part of the method of participatory observationMembers with partisan commitments do not participate in research in which they may have an interest nor see reports before public release. The P.I. is NOT a member of any party in Hong Kong but is an elected representative of the Higher Education sub-sector of the Chief Executive Election Committee, as part of the method of participatory observation