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Www. isl. org isl.org Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics Estimating deepsea, shortsea.

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Presentation on theme: "Www. isl. org isl.org Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics Estimating deepsea, shortsea."— Presentation transcript:

1 www. isl. org isl.org Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics Estimating deepsea, shortsea and transhipment volumes A data model for container traffic through the European North Range ports Sönke Maatsch, ISL

2 www. isl. org isl.org Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics Content 1.Data sources for seaborne and hinterland container traffic 2.Decomposing the North Range ports seaborne traffic – ISL STM 3.Determining the hinterland distribution 4.Linking foreign trade with transport data – Global Insight EITM 5.Results from latest study for the Hamburg Port Authority (HPA) 6.Future development of the model Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes 02/11/20132

3 www. isl. org isl.org Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics 1. Data sources 02/11/20133 AB Trade by origin/destination (e.g. UN, national statistics) B) Trade statistics (B/Ls) NR ports seaborne traffic transport statistics (transport statistics) NR ports modal split A) Transport statistics Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes Survey

4 www. isl. org isl.org Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics 2. Decomposing the North Range ports seaborne traffic 02/11/20134 extra-European container traffic ( EITM) intra-European container traffic ISL Shortsea Shipping Survey: survey among the most important shortsea operators main question: transhipment shares for each relation aim: estimating shortsea-land and transhipment traffic per relation (port-to-port or port-to-country level) North Range ports seaborne traffic Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes

5 www. isl. org isl.org Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics 2. Decomposing the North Range ports maritime traffic Split of total traffic into shortsea-land and transhipment (NR ports 2005) intra-European O/D port sea land shortsea-land: 4.7 mill TEU deepsea-land: 15.8 mill TEU extra-European O/D deepsea- transhipment shortsea transhipment shortsea-land transhipment: 10.5 mill TEU shortsea-transh.: 0.1 mill TEU Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes ? total hinterland traffic: 20.5 mill TEU

6 www. isl. org isl.org Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics 3. Determining the hinterland distribution Modal split statistics from the ports: distribution of hinterland traffic by modes for some ports: modal split by hinterland regions Transport statistics: distribution of hinterland traffic by regions for barge and rail truck traffic: not available or only available for transport companies registered in the respective country Hinterland survey: distribution of hinterland traffic by regions for truck modal splits per region expert interviews / plausibility checks Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes 02/11/20136 Modal split and hinterland distribution

7 www. isl. org isl.org Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics 3. Determining the hinterland distribution 02/11/20137 Split of total traffic into shortsea-land and transhipment (NR ports 2005) intra-European O/D port sea land shortsea-land: 4.7 mill TEU deepsea-land: 15.8 mill TEU extra-European O/D deepsea- transhipment shortsea transhipment shortsea-land transhipment: 10.5 mill TEU shortsea-transh.: 0.1 mill TEU Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes total hinterland traffic: 20.5 mill TEU ?

8 www. isl. org isl.org Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics Content 1.Data sources for seaborne and hinterland container traffic 2.Decomposing the North Range ports maritime traffic – ISL STM 3.Determining the hinterland distribution 4.Linking foreign trade with transport data – Global Insight EITM 5.Results from latest study for the Hamburg Port Authority (HPA) 6.Future development of the model Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes 02/11/20138

9 www. isl. org isl.org Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics 4. Linking trade and transport data Major challenges: a.from value to volume (tonnes) b.from tonnes to laden containers c.inclusion of empties d.estimation of transport chains e.first vs. final destination (distribution centres) Tools used for the North European Container Traffic Model: Global Insight World Trade Service (WTS) for a. and b. Imbalance analyses for c. Global Insight European Inland Transportation Model (EITM) and ISL Shortsea Traffic Model (STM) for d. Hinterland survey for d. and e. Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes 02/11/20139 Linking trade and transport data

10 www. isl. org isl.org Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics 4. Linking trade and transport data Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes 02/11/ Estimation of transport chains e.g. imports from North East Asia to Poland from WTS: laden TEU Hamburg Rotterdam Bremen/Bhv. 20 Antwerp 1 1 Split by ports based on their market share on the respective relation and in hinterland regions 40 Transhipment 0 Barge 25 Truck* 5 Rail 2 2 Split by mode based on preceding estimations for each port * Including containers transported to DCs near Hamburg and then on to Poland.

11 www. isl. org isl.org Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics 4. Linking trade and transport data Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes 02/11/ Imbalance analysis for empty containers Basis for estimation: difference between export and import TEUs per hinterland region difference between export and import TEUs per maritime relation Adjustments: differences between port of discharge and port of loading of containers equalisations between certain maritime trade routes Result: estimated transport chains for laden and empty containers

12 www. isl. org isl.org Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics 4. Linking trade and transport data Applications Market analyses market shares of ports in hinterland regions identification of potential new markets for ports modal split analyses Improved port traffic forecasting estimated transport chains allow differentiated forecasts impact of specific economic scenarios on the structure of a ports cargo traffic can be directly calculated

13 www. isl. org isl.org Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics 5. Latest study for the Hamburg Port Authority (HPA) Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes 02/11/ Structure of cargo traffic for each North Range port... market share per segment Source:ISL/Global Insight, Containerverkehrsmodell zur Bestimmung der Marktposition des Hafens Hamburg in europäischen Hinterland- und Transhipmentregionen, study for the Hamburg Port Authority, Bremen 2007Containerverkehrsmodell zur Bestimmung der Marktposition des Hafens Hamburg in europäischen Hinterland- und Transhipmentregionen

14 www. isl. org isl.org Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics 5. Latest study for the Hamburg Port Authority (HPA) Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes 02/11/ Market shares by hinterland regions and modal split (ex.: Hamburg) Source:ISL/Global Insight, Containerverkehrsmodell zur Bestimmung der Marktposition des Hafens Hamburg in europäischen Hinterland- und Transhipmentregionen, study for the Hamburg Port Authority, Bremen 2007Containerverkehrsmodell zur Bestimmung der Marktposition des Hafens Hamburg in europäischen Hinterland- und Transhipmentregionen

15 www. isl. org isl.org Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics 6. Planned developments Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes 02/11/ further projects for North Range ports to improve robustness building time series expansion of the scope to the whole continental Europe (i.e. including Mediterranean) large-scale survey among importing and exporting companies in continental Europe standardizing the interface to Global Insights World Trade Service, thus permitting regularly updated port forecasts

16 www. isl. org isl.org Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics Thank you for your attention! Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics Sönke Maatsch Tel. +49/4 21/ Universitätsallee GW1 Block A Bremen Germany Fax+49/4 21/ Economist Maritime Economics and Transport Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes


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