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WHERE SMART PV MEETS SMART GRID J. POORTMANS SCIENTIFIC DIRECTOR PART-TIME

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Presentation on theme: "WHERE SMART PV MEETS SMART GRID J. POORTMANS SCIENTIFIC DIRECTOR PART-TIME"— Presentation transcript:

1 WHERE SMART PV MEETS SMART GRID J. POORTMANS SCIENTIFIC DIRECTOR PART-TIME

2 2 © IMEC 2012 OUTLINE the Internet of Power PV in a global context EnergyVille: where Smart PV meets Smart Grid PV in Buildings PV in the Shadow Predicting PV energy yield Key messages ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS

3 3 © IMEC 2012 IMEC IN THE ENERGY CHALLENGE? The Internet of Power Think nano ? Linking Nanoscale to Gigawatts / GWh ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS

4 4 © IMEC 2012 THE INTERNET OF POWER... ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS GenerationStorageDistributionFlow Internet of Data Central Data flow known and controllable Internet of Power Related imec-activity

5 5 © IMEC 2012 THE INTERNET OF POWER... ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS GenerationStorageDistributionFlow Internet of Data Central Ubiquitous generation of information Central Ubiquitous storage devices Central Extreme Interconnectivity Data flow known and controllable Strongly fluctuating Internet of Power Related imec-activity

6 6 © IMEC 2012 THE INTERNET OF POWER... ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS GenerationStorageDistributionFlow Internet of Data Central Ubiquitous generation of information Central Ubiquitous storage devices Central Extreme Interconnectivity Data flow known and controllable Strongly fluctuating Internet of Power Central large-scale power plants Decentralized production – prosumers Related imec-activity PV-technology

7 7 © IMEC 2012 THE INTERNET OF POWER... ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS GenerationStorageDistributionFlow Internet of Data Central Ubiquitous generation of information Central Ubiquitous storage devices Central Extreme Interconnectivity Data flow known and controllable Strongly fluctuating Internet of Power Central large-scale power plants Decentralized production – prosumers Balancing Distributed storage Related imec-activity PV-technologyElectrochemical storage

8 8 © IMEC 2012 THE INTERNET OF POWER... ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS GenerationStorageDistributionFlow Internet of Data Central Ubiquitous generation of information Central Ubiquitous storage devices Central Extreme Interconnectivity Data flow known and controllable Strongly fluctuating Internet of Power Central large-scale power plants Decentralized production – prosumers Balancing Distributed storage One-directional flow through transmission and distribution grid Bi-directional flow of energy Related imec-activity PV-technologyElectrochemical storage Efficient convertors

9 9 © IMEC 2012 THE INTERNET OF POWER... ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS GenerationStorageDistributionFlow Internet of Data Central Ubiquitous generation of information Central Ubiquitous storage devices Central Extreme Interconnectivity Data flow known and controllable Strongly fluctuating Internet of Power Central large-scale power plants Decentralized production – prosumers Balancing Distributed storage One-directional flow through transmission and distribution grid Bi-directional flow of energy Stable base load Highly fluctuating resources (solar, wind) Related imec-activity PV-technologyElectrochemical storage Efficient convertors Energy yield prediction

10 10 © IMEC 2012 OUTLINE the Internet of Power PV in a global context EnergyVille: where Smart PV meets Smart Grid PV in Buildings PV in the Shadow Predicting PV energy yield Key messages ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS

11 11 © IMEC 2012 BREATH-TAKING GROWTH... ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS Corresponding to 53 full size 1,300MW nuclear reactors … and energy wise to the annual output of 9 such reactors

12 AND TO BE CONTINUED... Source: Photon Consulting UPSIDE CONSENSUS FORECAST Module >$2/W Module < $1/W China, India FiT Japan FiT (GW) CAGR = 20% (2012 – 2015) GROWTH REGIONS CAGR (2012 – 2015) US, China, India, Japan ROW (excl. Italy and Germany) = 38 % = 28 % CONSENSUS FORECASTS* (2009 – 2011) 30-50% BELOW actuals GERMANY ITALY JAPAN USA INDIA CHINA ROW Road to EnergyVille J. Poortmans Courtesy: Charles Gay, Applied Materials

13 13 © IMEC 2012 PRICE COLLAPSE IN ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS

14 14 © IMEC 2012 EVERY CRISIS ENDS AT SOME TIME Resorption of excess PV-production capacity will take time, but first signs of slow recovery 2/3 of the value creation of the PV-system is still located in Europe – materials, equipment, design&installation Link with local market is important for PV-systems with high added value (e.g. BIPV) Will the PV-world after the PV-crisis be the same? ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS

15 15 © IMEC 2012 GRID PARITY: THE HOLY GRAIL? ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS Courtesy of Prof. J. Luther, Fraunhofer ISE Residential electricity price PV electricity price Grid parity achieved

16 16 © IMEC 2012 DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR PV- DEPLOYMENT The ideal place to locate PV is where consumption is located Slightly increases the need for PV-capacity (+10%) Reduces need for additional transmission/distribution (-75%) ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS Connecting the Sun

17 17 © IMEC 2012 STORAGE AT OR NEAR THE PROSUMERS LOCATION ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS Connecting the Sun

18 18 © IMEC 2012 IMPACT ON REQUIRED PV-COSTS ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS Levelized cost of electricity = Investment cost Maintenance cost + Years of operation Annual energy output x

19 19 © IMEC 2012 IMPACT ON REQUIRED PV-COSTS ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS Levelized cost of electricity = Investment cost Maintenance cost + Years of operation Annual energy output x Cost for energy storage + Grid parity is a milestone, not the end goal PV installed close to consumer to limit excess PV- capacity Local storage needs to integrated with the PV system Cost of local storage evolves to 10 c/kWh ðPV investment cost needs to reduced with factor 2 to 3 ! ðEnergy output needs to be further increased

20 20 © IMEC 2012 OUTLINE the Internet of Power PV in a global context EnergyVille: where Smart PV meets Smart Grid PV in Buildings PV in the Shadow Predicting PV energy yield Key messages ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS

21 Organic PV CZTS as alternative for CIGS Thin film photovoltaics 20 % - 10 % - 30 % - Cost(/Wp) on module level < 0.5 Go beyond current Si-PV boundaries with industrial manufacturable processes Silicon photovoltaics IMEC PV RESEARCH Efficiency targets Road to EnergyVille J. Poortmans

22 Si-PV partners IMEC CONFIDENTIAL Solar cell producers Material suppliers Tool suppliers Energy companies 25 year solar cell research Kuwait University Road to EnergyVille J. Poortmans

23 Si-based photovoltaics: Thanks to the Vlaams Fotovoltaisch Initiatief! 6 Screenprinted i-PERC cells > 20% 6 i-PERC (p-type Si) and i-PERT (n-type Si) cells with Cu contacts near 21% Si-PV AND OPV PROGRAMS IT IS ALL ABOUT THE PERFORMANCE! Road to EnergyVille J. Poortmans

24 Si-based photovoltaics: 6 Screenprinted i-PERC cells > 20% 6 i-PERC (p-type Si) and i-PERT (n-type Si) cells with Cu contacts near 21% World class IBC-platform with > 23% for Fz- and Cz-Si substrates Si-PV AND OPV PROGRAMS IT IS ALL ABOUT THE PERFORMANCE! Road to EnergyVille J. Poortmans Substrate J sc [mA/cm 2 ] V oc [mV] FF [%] Efficiency [%] CZ FZ ** ** Measurement at ISE CalLab with designated illumination area (4 cm 2 ) Designated illumination area measurement (4 cm 2 )

25 25 © IMEC 2012 SOLLIANCE OPV PROGRAM OVERVIEW Program partners WP1WP2WP3WP5WP6 P in WP4 Reliability ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS

26 26 © IMEC 2012 ORGANIC PHOTOVOLTAICS PERFORMANCE OPV: Certified polymer cells > 9% Certified polymer module > 5.5% Polymer tandem 9.0% Polymer triple junction > 9.5% Small molecule tandems > 7.5% ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS solution processed layers

27 27 © IMEC 2012 OUTLINE the Internet of Power PV in a global context EnergyVille: where Smart PV meets Smart Grid PV in Buildings PV in the Shadow Predicting PV energy yield Key messages ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS

28 28 © IMEC 2012 BIPV INTEGRATION IN THE CONSTRUCTION VISIT DOW CORNING J. POORTMANS BIPV: An industry driven by the need of energy efficient buildings Courtesy of 3E

29 29 © IMEC 2012 BIPV: WHERE EFFICIENCY MEETS BEAUTY No silver bullet for all PV applications PV power plants and regular rooftop systems Future renewable energy demands will required broadening the application fields E.g. real building integrated PV (BIPV) -Facades, weak roofs, not ideal orientation,... -Aesthetics ! Other parameters start to play Flexibility in patterns and shapes Good response to indirect light Cost/m 2 rather than cost/W p Integrated system solutions Further R&D essential for all these aspects ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS

30 PV SYSTEMS TODAY Road to EnergyVille J. Poortmans After 4

31 PV SYSTEMS IN THE SMART GRID ERA Road to EnergyVille J. Poortmans High-eff modules with thin BC Si solar cells Distributed DC to AC conversion Grid smoothing / balancing needed local storage After Demand side management 4 elec. cost = f(time, season, meteo...)

32 SMART PV-MODULE ADDITIONAL FUNCTIONALITIES Road to EnergyVille J. Poortmans Maintaining efficiency under non-STC operation Integrated re-configuration series >< parallel Module-level DC/DC conversion Thinner Si and polymer layers Design-for- disassembly Integrated condition monitoring Control strategies that optimize plant energy / lifetime in synergy with the smart grid

33 33 © IMEC 2012 PV AND THE SHADOW Partial shadowing leads to large losses of energy yield Energy yield can be substantially improved by dynamically reconfiguring the PV-module: Integration of sensors Integration of switches Reliability should remain unaffected Energy yield modelling to make the trade- off between additional costs and additional energy yield ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS

34 34 © IMEC 2012 ENERGY YIELD PREDICTION Energy yield crucial for low LCOE Dependent on lifetime & local conditions Long-term decision for investment But reliable prediction of energy yield is also crucial for short-term decisions Short-time weather predictions (hours to day scale) Reliable prediction of energy aggregator crucial for pricing strategy Focus on effect of non-stationary, non-homogeneous conditions (e.g. T- profile in presence of wind) Scenario clustering approach ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS H. Goverde et al., to be published

35 35 © IMEC 2012 KEY MESSAGES PV is there to stay Flanders has a strong position in PV R&D Performance is necessary but not sufficient In order to remain relevant, one has to create added value on the level of PV-system To increase and predict energy yield To integrate more intelligence (reconfigurability) at the level of PV-module and system To integrate storage capability imec wants to create this value together with VITO, KUL and Uhasselt in EnergyVille ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS


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