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2 Energy Chinas Environment: Growth, Resources, Politics Stevan Harrell Creative Retirement Institute November 2013

3 Living standard s Energy Usage: Coal An Energy Dependent Society Steam locomotive Power stations Internal combustion engine Air travel Population growth Global markets Telecommunications WWI WWII Satellite Environmental issues Micro-processor Internet Energy Usage ? Modifiers Drivers Cook and Sheath, 1997 Living Standards

4 Projected World Supplies BILLION BARRELS Billion Barrels of Oil Equivalent perYear (GBOE) Billion Barrels of Oil Equivalent perYear (GBOE) Natural Gas Natural Gas Hydroelectric Crude Oil Solar, W ind Geothermal Nuclear Electric 1993 Coal Decreasing Fossil Fuels New Technologies World Energy Demand after Edwards, AAPG 8/97 Bioenergy

5 Energy Efficiency = 1/Energy Intensity Source: Gail Tverberg, Our Finite World

6 Comparative Energy Intensity Source: Gail Tverberg, Our Finite World

7 Chinas Growing Share of World Energy Supply Source: International Energy Agency World Key Energy Statistics 2013

8 Uses of Energy in China

9 Sources of Increased Demand, Transport: More and more private cars Industry: Continued growth, leveling off Commercial: Office space, and modern skyscrapers Residential: Upscaling, urbanization

10 Sources of Decreasing Demand, Far Future Saturation in transport and residential Industry moving to high-tech Efficiency Switch to renewables Environmental Kuznets effects?

11 The Other Side of Affluence: The Environmental Kuznetz Curve Environmental Quality Economic Well-being

12 China Energy Sources Fun fact to ponder: 14 of 27 pp of the EIA country report are about oil and gas, even though those together comprise 23% of Chinas energy use.

13 Oil Source: International Energy Agency World Key Energy Statistics 2013

14 Sources of Oil Imports Fun facts to remember: China still produces most of its own oil, and is exploring offshore for more China passed the U.S. as the worlds largest net importer in May of this year at 6.12 Mbb/d; this has as much to do with decreases in US imports as as it does with increases in Chinas Total: M bbl/dayTotal: M bbl/day

15 Natural Gas

16 Shale Gas Source: ARI via Quartz Source: via Quartz Estimated reserves: US 665Tcf China 1115 Tcf US 19Tm 3 China 31Tm Production: 100Mm 3 =.0001Tm Target: 6.5Bm 3 =.0065Tm 3 Partner: Royal Dutch Shell Obstacles: Technology (but Shell has it!) Water: Serious impingement on supplies Infrastructure: Needs to be built Location: Natural Hazard Zone

17 2009 Electricity by Fuel Type Fun fact to note: Wind power tripled from 2009 to 2011, but it didnt stop the growth of coal power

18 Coal UPDATE

19 Coal Reserves and Consumption China has about years of proven coal reserves

20 Increases in Coal Consumption to 2011

21 Coal and Pollution

22 10 a.m. today!

23 Peak Coal in China Soon? Something to think about: Implications for Northwest Coal Exports Coal trains and traffic delays Spilled coal Coal dust near tracks Few jobs created Facilities may sit empty

24 Chinas Clean Energy Goals Electricity Type2012 Installed Capacity 2020 Goals Total Electric1104 GW1800 GW Wind 75 GW 200 GW Offshore Wind 389 MW Solar 7 GW 50 GW Nuclear 34 GW 70 GW Hydro 249 GW 420 GW Therefore, fossil 739 GW1090 GW

25 The biggest one: Sanxia Why they built it National Pride Hydro Power Flood Control Navigation In January 2000, a senior Chinese official in Kunming expressed to me what I believe to be a deeply rooted conviction in China: We are sensitive to considerations of the environment and the importance of the conservation of nature, but we must have power; coal is dirty, water clean and abundant,a rich and unused resource; we have no alternative. In all other sectors of Chinas economy Maoism has been displaced by market principles,but not in the hydro-sector. Gavan McCormack, Water Margins: competing paradigms in China, 2001

26 Problems: Relocation Quality of the land available New ecotechnical adaptation Lack of education for urban life Dialect differences Insufficient Corruption and official indifference funds

27 Problems: Sedimentation changes since 2003

28 Sedimentation changes since 2003 More is building up behind the dam (max depth 56m) Downstream reaches have changed from deposition to erosion The Yangtze delta has gone from expansion to contraction

29 Landslides

30 Problems: Biodiversity Loss

31 There are still more dams…. Nu (Salween) River Lancang (Mekong) River UPDATE

32 Lancang Projects

33 Nu River Projects

34 Lack of electricity in rural areas Frequent blackouts Increased reliance on coal Possible belligerence over oil Problems Caused by Energy Shortages in China What are the Environmental Costs of More Dams? You be the judge: Vs. Deprivation of Downstream peoples Loss of Biodiversity Loss of Scenic Beauty All the problems of relocation Possible disasters

35 Carbon Emissions

36 Energy Solutions and their Problems Energy efficiency – Gains to be made – Requires incentives – Requires institution building – In the absence of technological breakthrough, will not be enough Oil – Short supply – Greenhouse gas – Air Pollution – No good alternative for transportation Coal – Greenhouse gas – Air pollution Hydroelectric – Supply limited – Agriculture land and habitat loss Nuclear – Dangerous – No domestic fuel source Energy Sources

37 What Needs to be Done? Develop long-term sustainable energy strategy, including incentives for clean and renewable sources Increase funding for environmental regulation Develop price structure for resources that will promote conservation Make environmental protection a primary element of cadre evaluations Allow citizen groups to form and lobby for environmental reform


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