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Crop Market Outlook for 2013

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Presentation on theme: "Crop Market Outlook for 2013"— Presentation transcript:

1 Crop Market Outlook for 2013
Waterloo, Iowa Feb. 13, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1 1

2 U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted
(mil. acres) 86.0 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2 Yield (bu./acre) 153.9 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4 Production (mil. bu.) 12,092 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,780 Beg. Stocks 1,624 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 Imports 14 8 28 29 100 Total Supply 13,729 14,774 14,182 13,516 11,869 Feed & Residual 5,182 5,125 4,795 4,548 4,450 Ethanol 3,709 4,591 5,019 5,011 4,500 Food, Seed, & Other 1,316 1,370 1,407 1,426 1,387 Exports 1,849 1,980 1,834 1,543 900 Total Use 12,056 13,066 13,055 12,527 11,237 Ending Stocks 632 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.06 3.55 5.18 6.22 7.20 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3 U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted (mil. acres) 75.7 77.5 77.4 75.0 77.2 Yield (bu./acre) 39.7 44.0 43.5 41.9 39.6 Production (mil. bu.) 2,967 3,359 3,329 3,094 3,015 Beg. Stocks 205 138 151 215 169 Imports 13 15 14 16 20 Total Supply 3,185 3,512 3,495 3,325 3,204 Crush 1,662 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,615 Seed & Residual 106 110 130 91 120 Exports 1,279 1,499 1,501 1,362 1,345 Total Use 3,047 3,361 3,280 3,155 3,080 Ending Stocks 125 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 9.97 9.59 11.30 12.50 14.30 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4 Prices

5 Corn Yields Top: 2012 Yield Bottom: Change from 2011
Units: Bushels/acre

6 Soybean Yields Top: 2012 Yield Bottom: Change from 2011
Units: Bushels/acre

7 World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8 World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9 Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

10 Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

11 U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

12 Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

13 Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

14 Corn Grind for Ethanol

15 Ethanol Stocks

16 Fuel Prices

17 U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption
7.6 bil. gal. But the industry still faces blend wall issues as fuel consumption has dropped with the economy and the E-10 market is basically full. 7.4 bil. gal. Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

18 Current Corn Futures 6.62 5.29 5.13 Source: CME Group, 2/12/2013

19 Current Soybean Futures
13.91 12.11 11.83 Source: CME Group, 2/12/2013

20 Corn Prices vs. Costs

21 Soy Prices vs. Costs

22 Total Acreage Shift Source: USDA-NASS
We brought back a lot of acres in Can we hold them in 2013? Source: USDA-NASS

23 Acreage Shift by Crop Acreage change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres
Cotton will likely give up acreage again. But with crop prices strong across the board, the acreage battle could be interesting in 2013. Source: USDA-NASS

24 Acreage Shift by State Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011
Weather was great for planting in 2012 (just not for producing). To hold acreage we will need great planting weather again. Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

25

26 Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns Soil moisture issues Biofuel and export strength Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing 2012/13 USDA Futures (2/12/13) 2013/14 Corn $7.20 $6.62 $5.29 Soybeans $14.30 $13.91 $12.11 Risk management Crop insurance Price protection

27 Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker:


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