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Nice 3G2001 – 23-05-01 / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 A Triptych in ThirdG 1.

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Presentation on theme: "Nice 3G2001 – 23-05-01 / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 A Triptych in ThirdG 1."— Presentation transcript:

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2 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 A Triptych in ThirdG 1

3 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 ` Forecasting the Future of Mobile Communications Jacob van Kokswijk 5th Annual 3G2001 Nice, 2001 May 23 nd 2

4 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Jacob van Kokswijk, Senior Analyst & Strategic Imagineer of Cap Gemini Ernst & Young forecasts towards a mobile as underwear in The Future Of Mobile Communications. 45 amazing minutes of Imagineering and Forecasting before the final bell rings. Due to possible copyrights to distribution, the photographs and sounds in the live presentation are cutted out in this file.

5 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 The Hell of the Bell Alexander Bell made at least 1 fault: he connected an alarm bell to his phone. For hundred years people will interrupt when they hear a phone alert signal. Or the vibration alert let people rise and run, like they need a rush to the toilet. Please switch off your mobile phone during this presentation ! Thanks on behalves of all delegates.

6 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 3 days with 3 g legs crossed We passed in three days: Key Drivers & The Market Pricing & Billing for 3G Investment & Finance Services & Applications Business Opportunities Panels: Creating smart 3G devices Attractive Applications for 3G Developing 3G Value Chain

7 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 3 days with 3 g legs crossed A Triptych in ThirdG Three days of baby-talk… Everyone is presenting here their fictive 3G success story, even without any survived service or system. Everyone is asking for proved technology, but why three days of presenting new equipment, solutions and service-concepts, without any proved business. Everyone is talking about the consumer, but nobody really has a presentation where the consumer talks. Everyone is searching for the killer application, but nobody has the guts to kill their application providers. Everyone is looking here to each other, wishing and hoping some one else has the brilliant idea of this century. Three days of baby-talk…

8 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 3 days with 3 g legs crossed We arrogantly thought that we could dictate the consumers needs and necessaires 3g Market Misunderstandings: The customer is King. That customer is your consumer. Not you! Also the Customer wanna be like you. The Customer decides about Personalizing his Customer Relation. People change earlier by Accepting their Strong and Weak Points, than by Forced Seek for other Habits or other Personality. Safely and Trust are the Basic Needs. Convenience and Coverage are the Basic Necessaries. Feelings of unsafely paralyse.

9 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 3 days with 3 g legs crossed We lost control of the consumers and the auctions, because 3G was still technology driven 3g Mazlov Misunderstandings: Consumers are human and expect first Connectivity, Coverage and Care; secondly Confidence and Convergence; when those are realised, Convenience and Easy of Use could follow. Unfamiliarity with the practice reduces trust. Ignorance of the danger increases the anxiety. Human is leading, technology is bleeding

10 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 3 days with 3 g legs crossed We paid too early and too much for a licence to exploit a technology that isnt ready yet Operators are crying about the high licence costs, but didnt they show the public how good business GSM was? And which attractive niches could be brought by UMTS? Governmental auctions only reflect the exposure of the operators… Remember: 3G has not been developed for the customers needs, but for the operators capacity shortness 3G wasnt technology revolution, neither innovation

11 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Is innovation revolutionary ? locomotive electricity ocean steamer vacuum cleaner telegraph airplane radio television atomic fusion mobile phone Martin Cooper

12 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Accident by 3 g _ aps Signal operators first tried to warn the driver, but cant find his mobile-number. Delayed, they forced other operators to stop the other train, but misuse in communication. Cutting power to the line to trigger the emergency brakes on both trains, failed by misinterpreting the network diagrams.

13 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 If we cant precure such an serious accident… Consumers first want to be safe, healthy and accepted. Fat applications like video and multimedia will lose out to thin, text-based applications. Users will demand content and services that complement the primary function of their device and provide timely information, enable simple transactions, and are location- relevant.

14 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 3 days with 3 g legs crossed 3G could be successful, but not now and in this way Forrester predicts that successful mobile data applications will be: 1) timely; 2) simple; and 3) location-based. Location-based services are the potential boom. Later this year, US wireless operators will begin to conform with phase 2 of the FCC's enhanced 911 initiative, which mandates increased precision in automated location identification of an emergency call from a mobile phone. Carriers that implement a networkbased solution will be required to locate 67% of 911 calls within 100 meters and 95% of calls within 300 meters. Carriers that opt for a handset-based solution must locate 67% of calls within 50 meters and 95% of calls within 150 meters. Carriers must begin selling location- enabled handsets by October 1, 2001.

15 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 The Innovated Industry of Future Freakers, Trend Trippers and Wealth Watchers The practice of dividing the world up into a list of trends might at first seem a little too arbitrary. Its purpose, however, is not to render life simplistic or superficial, but to establish a categorical foundation on which a greater depth of knowledge can be built. - John Naisbitt & Patricia Aburdene - Megatrends 2000

16 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 The Innovated Industry of Future Freakers, Trend Trippers and Wealth Watchers Short term-forecasts tend to be dull and obvious, long-term forecasts provocative and unreliable". (Nigel Calder Technopolis 1969) So… why all those forecasts, in stead of reviews to learn lessons from the past? Is it that we like heaven more than dead?

17 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 The Innovated Industry of Future Freakiers, Trend Trippers and Wealth Watchers Technologic Finalism Believable future-vision is: Reduction of Complexity Present Innovation as simple as possible; Praise the Advantages to the Skies Boost all global, central, extended, extreme advantages of the new service or product. Techno Optimistic Talks Talk all problems away to the future. Dragging and Bragging Copy sheets and slides of others; Pronounce frequently Gartner, Forrester, Ovum, IDC, etc.

18 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 The Innovated Industry of Future Freakiers, Trend Trippers and Wealth Watchers Big Blind Business The Business of Future-vision is: Conferences Commuting In a country of blind, the one-eyed is king; the others make a trip around congresses. Concept Competition By absence of vision on the board level, engineers are expected to present one. Dooming Delay Scenarios Press the governments to decide now, to subside tomorrow and to think about later. Virtual Virile Voting organizations For every question a dot org ; for every standard a voting lobby mechanism.

19 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 The Innovated Industry of Future Freakiers, Trend Trippers and Wealth Watchers Forecasting or Gorecasting To get a Forecasting based Future-vision: Multiply the successes, negotiate the inaccuracies Present ambitions in stead of questions. Blast Booming Curves Use upwards graphics, diagrams and research- results, doesnt matter what. Shop and Show your network Subscribe to all analysts newsgroups, and forward frequently the highlights. Copy and Distribute relevant publications Expectations of tomorrow are the Policies of today.

20 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES The Introduction of Third Generation Mobile Communications in the EU: State of Play and the Way Forward. Brussels, Commission recalls the great economic and societal potential that future wireless services will offer. COM(2001)141 final. Despite the current uncertainties of the markets, it should not be forgotten that 3G is built on very strong foundations and that in the foreseeable future it is the only viable, widely supported common platform for all broadband mobile Internet applications. 3G will offer users a new quality of wireless services based on global roaming capability: personalised services, transaction services, mobile data transmission, and location-based services. For these reasons, all concerned actors need to work together to tackle outstanding issues and concerns raised by the introduction of wireless data services in the European Union. Et cetera.

21 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES And what did the Commission really do?…: Leaving the G3 auctions behind us Starting a Task Force for IPv6 Saying OK to Sharing of Antenna sites / antennas Sharing of the not-intelligent Network-parts Pushing the Euro Governments to new broadband services Copying the US Innovation successes to own territories, like the Brussels-based Starlab Starting the Digital Broadcast auctions.

22 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Evolution of mobile from 1G to 4 G Worldwide we are still using 1G, building 2G, testing 2G+, developing basics of 3G, and also talking about 4G in 2008? Amazing…

23 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba – – 1973 – 2001

24 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 The evolution of mobile from 1G to 4G The Battle of the Generations Technology Driven Service Market Driven

25 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 The evolution of mobile from 1G to 4G The Battle of the Generations Backwards Compatible Inter-network Roaming Inter-system Roaming

26 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 GPRS as GaPRS 05/2001 Patrick Leleu (Bouygues): Due to the lack of sufficient technology, UMTS delays for 2 years.

27 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Practice makes Perfect … Call back for GPRS devices in UK Call back for UMTS devices in UK (Is. Man) Call back for IMT-2000 devices in Japan Call back for W-CDMA1x devices in Japan Worldwide Headaches for Java-enabled handsets Struggling for UMTS start up in Korea Struggling with UMTS field trials in France Struggling with inter-network roaming in Sweden Delay for DoCoMo, Vodafone and many others None national coverage until 2005

28 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 The evolution of mobile from 1G to 4G 3g makes Practice Perfect ? Still technical difficulties with: Handsets Coverage-inconvenience Network-synchronisation IP implementation Inter-network Roaming Data speed (Max. approx. 300 kB/s) Different protocols in Europe, Japan and US

29 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 The evolution of mobile from 1G to 4G 3g as Smart Smock, 4g as Bionic Buddy 3g Devices: Toys for boys, pearls for girls… Does anyone wonder about the relation between fashion and mobile? Look to Asians, all the same in hear, length and colored eyes, That region is going blond, and burgundy and auburn and chestnut. Where people try to differentiate themselves… Girls now use hear dye, colored lenses and platform-shoes. The diffusion of mobile phones should continue by following that fashion twist. A 4G Device will be an personalized IP-version of 3G, but 100% individual owned and managed.

30 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 4G and others are attacking the Mobile Operators Scenarios for the Wireless Landscape around 2007 will give an overview of competing technologies for mobile data infrastructure evolution The trade-off between bandwidth and mobility & coverage will have an impact on terminals, usage patterns and market positioning. Technologies will competing in wireless data infrastructure and this presentation will cover the different strategic models for technologies, including GSM/GPRS, 3G, W-LAN, Optical Wireless, Digital TV, All-IP, satellite and OFDM. 4g = wireless broadband IP. The built-in intelligence allows the system to simultaneous offer fixed wireless DSL, portable wireless DSL and full broadband revenue opportunities in a single base-station and management framework.

31 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 The evolution of mobile from 1G to 4G The final bell for the Intelligent Networks 4g devise will be individual and completely independent of propriety networks 4g has Speech-, Handwriting- and Handicap recognition 4g devices are also game-consoles, pluriform machine- controls and operator-terminals Intelligence moves from network to both ends: Smart Device, with all personalized adjustments Learning Portal, CRM based, with Artificial Intelligence

32 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Development of Communication Providers as next generation Service Enablers e-banks content Repositioning of e-banks, content, entertainment and service providers

33 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Disney e-banks content Development of communication providers as next generation service enablers Repositioning of e-banks, content, entertainment and service providers Now Money items: Costs of transactions Used Content-/ Service Micro Payments Interest Investments

34 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Disney e-banks content Development of communication providers as next generation service enablers Repositioning of e-banks, content, entertainment and service providers Next Money items: Transactions Licences Content Almost all Payments Interest Investments

35 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 e-banks content Development of communication providers as next generation service enablers Repositioning of e-banks, content, entertainment and service providers Future Money items: Transactions Content Priority Usage Context Location All Payments Interest Investments

36 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 e-banks content and Development of communication providers as next generation service enablers Repositioning of e-banks, content and entertainment to full service communication providers Content, Context, Location, Transaction, Communicating Services, Enabling Services, Insurance, Congierge & Personalized Services, Brooking, Collecting, Delivery, Transport, Billing, Micro- and Macro-payments

37 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Business before Pleasure 1.Try to Survive under the Load of 3g licence fees 2.Business Plans for the next Network investments 3.Delivery of adequate 3g devices for the trials 4.GPRS as useful leg up to 3g for the next 10 years 5.Site- and Network sharing to get National coverage 6.Cooperate or Fight to reach the global Top Ten 7.Marketing refresh to find the Customers needs 8.Do not believe in Killer Apps; trust in CRM 9.Focus to the Personal Communication Centres 10.Meets the needs of the changing world… Hints & Kinks

38 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Nothing Seek, Nothing Find Was the timing of 3G OK? What are we looking for? The Subscribing Customer !? Ultimate ubiquity and Intimate Utility Flexibility of Implemented Solutions Adequate Coverage and reach How can we reach Guaranteed Service Quality Is there better than WAP? Or… Shall we position GPRS as the 3-times faster WAP? Multi-media Messaging will follow up SMS to be the major driver for person-to-person communications Experience gained with GPRS applications today 3G is optimised for offering services in the IP world

39 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Development of communication providers as next generation service enablers Blasting the Boarders between telcos, cellcos, cablecos & ISPs In future, there will be only space on earth and air for a handful Full Service Communication Providers.

40 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Mend or End In future, only Full Service Communication Providers will survive. Only 10 of worlds Incumbents will survive when converged communication goes global. More mobiles than Subscribers mean that the customer wants to switch more networks; the Italian trend of multiple SIMs per user confirms that opinion. In future, the device will be users individual terminal to different networks, machines and systems. Sophistic Providers will succeed. Lazy Providers will end.

41 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Development of communication providers as next generation service enablers Lurkers versus Leaders What is your Mission? Mission Control? Mission Vision? Mission Missed?

42 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Might is Right VHS proved that not the Best System wins, but the most aggressive Marketing. WAP proves that simple GPRS and EDGE will lose when the aggressive Marketing of UMTS starts. The success of i-Mode is not only the Japanese culture of simple picture- and game loading but also the technical basement: i-Mode uses HTTP in a always on packet switched transmission, HTML in a simple version and many Icons for operating. The disaster of WAP proves that WDP, WML and key operating arent customers choice. UMTS only succeeds when it follows the customers basic needs and necessaries.

43 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Customers Culture Shock Volume growth, Distributed live and Just-in-time economy force a change of the users culture. The old physical Stream-Thinking changed to new Network-transaction Thinking. Information on one moving document changed to Information, anywhere and anytime, for anyone. Agents, Dealers and Suppliers are upgraded from stock holders and distributors to opinion holders and consultants of knowledge intensive products. New marketing mix of product, promotion, price, privacy and protection. Customer databases in each enterprise will be transformed to self-tuning databases, when the customer makes his/hers profile available.

44 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 3Gs threat to traditional banks, billers, binders and brokers The Boundaries between the Cellco and local Banks, Billers and Barbers change incredible when the Operator comes very nearby them, using the Location Based Services, the micro and macro Mobile Payment and Personalized Consumer Tuning.

45 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Location Based Services Most operators does not realize what the potential of this new service is. Most vendors are only looking to their own propriety equipment and applications. A large chance that – the same with SMS – others will set up this new service and the operator gets only some revenues of the airtime / traffic. Look to the consumers behaviour: his/hers local view and interest. Look to the link between marketing-tools, locational services and mobile payments. (see, buy and pay!) Look also to the link between automotive-services, locational services and the residential services.

46 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Mobile payments as revenues Less than 10% of mobile users want mobile payment Only young, well-educated, male technology enthusiasts Short-term revenues ( ): Messaging & Notification (sending images and tunes) Location based services Mobile Content payment Middle term revenues ( ): Personal tuning of services Automotive services (the second home) mPDA services (e.g. stock-refill)

47 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Mobile payments as revenues Long-term revenues (after 2008): Integrated Mobile lifestyle services Full secured Micro and macro payments Software downloads; remote devise management Main reasons to accept mobile payment services: For high-income, career-motivated optimists (m:35jr): like timesaving technologies: extra personal time For low-income, career-motivated optimists (m/f:27jr): like new gadgets that resemble and impress his peers For entertainment-motivated optimists (SMS-users): like to add some fun to your day (and buy more)

48 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Free mobile… How can you expect that a consumer do pay for a new mobile? Getting one (by subsidy) gives many profits: its a new, latest model; its for free, and it has a new number (so it leaves spam behind you).

49 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 The Next Gen Bonus Benefits We learned our Kids to continuous collect bonuses and items in your inventory as much as you can. Is it unusual that they now collect the same mobile offers ? Want next gen ? Think next gen !

50 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Trying too to tug together ? Network (QoS) Billing factory Customer Care Content integrators Service development Marketing Etc. Discovering a new world is not the same as backpacking your house, family and friends. Is there any mobile operator who designed m-services themselves?

51 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Enterpreneur or Entrepreneur Mobile Operators should Host all regular processes, Collect all data and Concentrate on m-Business. Are you an Entrepreneur, or are you doing m-business by pressing the ENTER key? Use the strategic information of your network and backoffice, like traffic, usage, payment, location, et cetera, to design and (let) develop new services, to follow the market.

52 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Share, Shame or Shape a Bank? Operators start already with partnering for: SMS-services Antenna (site- and antenna-sharing) Networks (only the non-intelligent equipment) Security Location based services Mobile Payments Are you joining colleague operators in buying your e-Bank ?, … Is one of the Banks your next Partner ?, or do you shame your Bank for the transaction fees ?

53 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Tit for Tat See the boarders between banks, e-banks, i-banks, cellcos and venture capitalists Banks will only survive with e-/ i-transactions Cellcos will only survive with forward loans and investments of the banks. Take your part !! Micropayments <10 Euro Macropayments >10<1000 Forwardpayments

54 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 No Pay, No Play ? A Customer wants playing before paying, at least paying during playing Cellco, service provider and content-holder want paying before playing Customers Loyalty is generated by good contact and fulfilment of needs and let the customer feeling safe in the environment Investments in the Customers Relation will be honored by trust in the relation. Investments in Customer Relation Building will be honored by capital venturists trust.

55 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Do anyone know the consumer ? The customer knows you. He or she is looking for a relationship… like a consistent and familiar place, with a simple and intuitive control of all personalized services, tailored to him or her. Know your customer as your consumer: Be straightforward, honest, dynamic, simple and refreshing. So your customer could trust you!

56 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 The Hour of Power Mobile information needs are based on Mazlovs fundamentals of fulfilment of needs and feeling safe in the environment of – Family and friends – Community, clubs and tribes – Employment Mobile information needs are inextricable bound with the context of – Location – Event/moment – Personal needs

57 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Look before You Leap Mobile information basic needs are life services, such as – automatic updated personal directory – voice controlled scheduler – actual traffic & transport information – headlines of financial and banking info – sports & lifestyle – news, weather & public scandals – entertainment, managed by the user – shame & blame

58 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Show the company team spirit to the consumers Every year a take-over, fusion, rebranding et cetera does not give good feelings to the consumers. They think they pay for that corporate rubbish. At least they will expect that again and again labours will be fired and executives will become rich by getting options. Be a strong team. Show that team. Like A-TEAM. Customer Care is only 100% OK when none of the subscribers complains about the bill anymore. And if you are a CEO… handle your company as your child.

59 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Examining the Cummy Cutters and Tummy Tuckers Handle a company as your child. Reorganisation and Redesign of enterprises are mostly arranged and leaded by cost cutters, using a sharp knife or slicer to cut out all exorbitant costs. Most of the cutters dont have any feeling for the cultural basement of an enterprise, and leave the wounded company with a gash behind. The best employees are gone, the lessers are demotivated. After that process a tycoon is hunted to get the bloody organization on track in the right direction. Tummy tucking will be Better for the Restart of a company, because only the extra fat is cutted-out. After the operation the wound is invisible stitched and the employees could be proud on their new face and image.

60 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 New Bricks, Old Clicks A Cumulating Cutter wont look to integration with multimedia and broadcast, unless that is cheaper. A Tummy Tucker will see that future as a Redesign of the company. Messages, Notifications, Targetgroup Broadcasting, Audio- and Video-on-demand, Personalized Data, Software downloading, … all new services, but from different backgrounds and disciplines. Still, 85% of all traffic is voice. Mobile operators does not have any experience with interactive television, live radio or multi-played games. Implementation of Television and Internet is a difficult task. Video on demand is out of scope, caused by a lack of standards and bandwidth. Who wants to decide about one standard out of HAVi, UPnP, DVB-MHP, OSGI or Open TV?

61 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Tricky Terminals contra Nasty Networks Till better times, be clear about congestion. Devices are getting smarter in their user- interface, but stay dummy as Network- Terminal.They simulate being smart in connecting too, but arent. Thats tricky for users imagination and mobiles goodwill. Mobile and passed Fixed Networks are getting more and more heavily used, are sometimes bad managed and have a lot of connection failures. Be clear about that. Use bonuses for avoiding the rush hours.

62 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Customers Expectations and Customers Loyalty Understand, promise, deliver and care Living and merchandizing in a world of (r)evolution Some figures…

63 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Customers Expectations and Customers Loyalty Age / % of expectations in mobile technology

64 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Customers Expectations and Customers Loyalty Short time Market view: Customers Attention to 3G To early launching is waste of money.

65 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Made by Vendors To be or not to be ?… thats no question for marketers Finally β Developed by Researchers Made by Vendors Expected by Consumers Innovation / pilot Time Expec tation push Range of lesser ac- ceptance

66 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Loyalty Building Process Incorporates Behaviors And Attitudes L o y a l t y i n c r e a s e s Banner ad prompts a visit Customer feels others would benefit from a similarly positive experience Increased use of the site leads to personalization, making it harder to defect Customer believes that the product will be delivered in a timely fashion Customer values relationship so much that she ignores competitors better prices Well-designed site creates a positive experience Visit Willingness to be inconvenienced Refer Personal investment Act Trust Behaviors and attitudes reinforce each other to grow loyalty Source: Forrester

67 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Loyalty Building Process Incorporates Behaviors And Attitudes Behaviors and attitudes indicate loyalty Source: Forrester

68 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Promotions Tools Help Change Behaviors And Attitudes Source: Forrester

69 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Loyalty Data Helps Prospect, Retain, And Win Back Customers Source: Forrester

70 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 The evolution of the communications market beyond the introduction of 3G Mazlovs Marketing

71 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Societies develop when people reach a particular high level in Maslow's hierarchy. Once people meet their physiological needs and they feel safe, they begin to develop a culture and advanced civilization. Then they are open to handy services. Self-actualization is no fame or fortune. Wealthy, honoured, or celebrated people might reach self- actualization, but most people who have reached highest level of happiness are unknown beyond their circle of family, friends & community.

72 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Coverage, Connectivity, Customer Service Convenience & Confidence Convergence Ease of Use Free Love Safety The Battle between Technology, Marketing and Reality Self Actua- lization Esteem Physiological base Maslow community MARKETINGPUSH

73 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Coverage, Connectivity, Customer Service Convenience & Confidence Convergence Ease of Use Free Love Safety Any time implantate Self Actua- lization Esteem Physiological base Maslow The Battle between Technology, Marketing and Reality

74 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Coverage, Connectivity, Customer Service Convenience & Confidence Convergence Ease of Use Free Ignoring Withdrawal The Battle between Technology, Marketing and Reality Any time implantate Ego- tripping Shifting Regression Kokswijk The fall into ignoring

75 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Coverage, Connectivity, Customer Service Convenience & Confidence Convergence Ease of Use Free The Battle between Technology, Marketing and Reality Any time implantate Any where, Any way Psychiological Basic Needs Safety Love Esteem Selfactualisation

76 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 TRENDs: High End mobile users like services to handle things I hate to do and to help withthings I always do wrong. Early Adopters like services to tune on things I like and to handlethings I dont like to do now. 4 trendy targetgroups to better tryout smart learning personalizing services: Clever Kids to swab my own fone Happy Hub for clubs & communities,for sports fanatics & tribes Seeking Seniors as Grazing Grannies Bionic Buddy for the Towing Teeners.

77 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 The evolution of the communications market beyond the introduction of 3G 3gs Gambling Gadget Gun Dont launch unproved technology to early… DoCoMos slogan The Future is Now is now accepted by the Japanese like one of NTTs gadgets…

78 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 3gs Gambling Gadget Gun In the rush to find a killer app, almost every creative starts a content company. In the uncertainty to run a mobile operator in these bad times, almost every manager starts and stops et cetera new initiatives. Gadgets are OK, but providing games and gadgets have to be embedded in your business process and network, to be successful in a continuous changing world.

79 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 The evolution of the communications market beyond the introduction of 3G The threat of the Digital Broadcasters After Eutelsat and SES/Astra, the new Digital Broadcast Ter. Satellites are soon licensed to provide Europe a converge of multicasting, multimedia and telecom. Nokias mediascreen, GSM uplink; 5 mB DVBT downlink

80 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Next year in many European countries the licences for Terrestrial Digital Audio (TDAB) and Video (DVB-T) Broadcasting are provided by mostly a beauty contest. With an upstream by e.g. GSM, free channels could be used for a 5 mB downstream of cartographic maps, live music, movies and games (with 3d-images). Nationwide coverage has already to be build for broadcast purposes and is 20% of the costs of an UMTS network. Why should a consumer waits for 3G ? The threat of the Digital Broadcasters

81 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 DVB-T is Always On, high power, downstream 5 – 31 mB A sub-service of the Broadcast Companies Licensed by beauty contests in most countries Internet access via TV antenna for fixed and mobile Simple to realize and more efficient than UMTS Excellent and fast distribution of large files Supplementary to GSM and GPRS Much faster to set up a Euro nation wide coverage Not suitable for synchronized voice communication The End of the Single Service Mobile Providers. The threat of the Digital Broadcasters

82 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 The Future of Mobile Communications Operation Match for the Operating Systems To avoid crashes and reboots, focus on the better operating systems. Match them. At least, try to get one platform to manage.

83 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 The Future of Mobile Communications Operation Match for the Operating Systems Solaris passes for really professional use Microsoft's component based NT/Win2K. Linux gives management problems with all those.rpms AND a slow file system. Challenges grow for Wind-river systems (VxWorks), especially for embedded integrators. Suns Java has good tools to develop, like a perfect memory leak detector and access checker, but the develop tools are too expensive to expanse this OS to a common platform. For PDAs a continuing fight exist between MS Windows CE, Epoc and Palms OS.

84 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Achieving real convergence through designing a multi-sense portal for 3G operators and service providers The evolution of the mobile PDAs

85 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Achieving real convergence through designing a multi-sense portal for 3G operators and service providers Return of the Pick Panther, (r)evolution in network design prepaid postpaid Networks, fixed, wireless, others Portals Content Cash-/coffeemachine Game-console, Secure Operator-terminal e.g. prepaid fixed cable Individual owned Portals Content mPDA postpai d

86 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Achieving real convergence through designing a multi-sense portal for 3G operators and service providers Swoop Separate Senses Marketing shouts: Accessibility of Anyplace, Anytime to Everything. and Spontaneous Use and Low Barrier to Entry of Global, Wireless, Interoperable, Broadband Networks. That is not so easy made as you think….

87 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 THINGS TO THINK ABOUT Accessibility Anyplace, Anytime to Everything. Spontaneous Use and Low Barrier to Entry of Global, Wireless, Interoperable, Broadband Networks. l Connected Process Design l Multi-protocol Integration l Multi-terminal Integration l Multi-sense Integration l Chained security l Integrate & Operate Exchanges l Assimilation to open software, like Java

88 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 THINGS TO THINK ABOUT Accessibility Anyplace, Anytime to Everything. Spontaneous Use and Low Barrier to Entry of Global, Wireless, Interoperable, Broadband Networks. l Local Privacy rules and habits l Global means not uniform, neither unisex l Adapting to cultures, habits, languages and currencies l Confirmation to local rules, standards, measures and laws l Adjusting to communities and human trends l Fit easily to sexes, ages and regular handicaps l Fine-tuning to individual needs and preferences

89 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Accessibility Anyplace, Anytime to Everything. Spontaneous Use and Low Barrier to Entry of Global, Wireless, Interoperable, Broadband Networks. The multi-terminal environment requires a constant re-purposing of applications and content

90 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Achieving real convergence through designing a multi-sense portal for 3G operators and service providers Convergence as Cash Cow Mobile Makes Your Live Easy Think about convergence as service… Such as directory services, presentation of callers name in display, in stead of nr. Et cetera

91 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Icons! No Names or Numbers Human learned tones and icones first; Navigating is easier with names than by numbers; ICANN: mobile-name = number-rows; Forrester: each time pressing a key to a service will halve the number of users; Converge-Portals like Bango.net will be temporary; Gartner: mPDAs will soon organize the users connections and supply the URL directory function.

92 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Towards the mobile as underwear... The Future of Mobile Communications There is lot of new technology, some of them are really scaring… But remind that the consumer expects safety and security first. Customer Care as second.

93 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Dear or Fear By combining EMG and EEG-brain signals, one day we might attain something similar to silent speech recognition. Neuro electric technology uses, might include control of advanced robotic manipulators and exoskeletons, enabling silent speech "synthetic telepathy" with machines. Using the same powerful pattern recognition techniques to include brain signals. see demo on

94 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Speak or Leak Voice Portals are slown down. The human voice as browser has not been attractive enough to realize a separate world of Voice Portals. Best chances for Nuance (by Marketing) and Philips (by Technology). Voice recognition technology is still developed and getting better. Next generations also integrate grammar- and summarizing techniques. Handwriting recognition techniques are developed also continuously, e.g. at Samsung, Sony and in Scandinavian labs. Iris and Fingerprint verification technology booms in Japan, US and Europe, to be the winner in the Security Race for UMTS and Safe Internet. In 2013 a Robot will achieve the same number of neurons at a human being.

95 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Tricks and Trends Hobby hopping is a new consumers trend. You need to understand those trends. Its entertainment, like adventure games. Also the same with new messaging… All those hypes could only be profitable for the mobile operators, if they: - open their networks at maximum for young entrepreneurs against a profit-percentage; Or - change their organisation and processes dramatically to be able to follow the market

96 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Towards the mobile as underwear... The Future of Mobile Communications The Bionic Buddy as Universal Human-Machine Interface mobile fixed cable Individual owned mPDA Portals Content Personal Default Tuning and Security box Terminal to operate machines, PCs, etc. Console for games and Entertainment Residential Automotive Combination Of Bluetooth, Wireless LAN and GPRS

97 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 All Humans are Different So… all Mobile Consumers are different So… all Mobile Consumers are different !

98 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 The Last Lesson You promised the consumer anytime, anywhere, anyway, anyhow et cetera. But you cant deliver that for years! Say Sorry to the Customer. And make on G2+ all other features you promised too. You can enhance those when – in about 4 to 5 years – G3 is ready. In the mean time, listen to consumer, get some confidence, and the next time you deliver what you promise.

99 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Cap Gemini Ernst & Young is a leading consulting and IT services company Our credentials Around 60,000 specialized people Full local capability with global reach Account-centric organization Sector know-how From strategy to outsourcing Integrated offerings Around 60,000 specialized people Full local capability with global reach Account-centric organization Sector know-how From strategy to outsourcing Integrated offerings Our differences A truly multicultural group Our thinking is not dominated by a single country (or continent) perspective We equally master strategy AND technology Both are needed to win in the network economy Single-minded focus on delivery OTACE - On Time and Above Client Expectations Only published delivery track record A truly multicultural group Our thinking is not dominated by a single country (or continent) perspective We equally master strategy AND technology Both are needed to win in the network economy Single-minded focus on delivery OTACE - On Time and Above Client Expectations Only published delivery track record

100 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Cap Gemini Ernst & Young delivers a complete and integrated set of services Strategy Consulting Business Solutions Consulting TechnologyOperate Application Mgt Infrastructure Mgt Bus. Process Mgt Tech Consulting Advanced Development & Integration Strategy & Transformation Customer Relationship Management Supply Chain Management Support Services Extended Enterprise Applications/ERP Network Integration Solutions B2B Marketplaces, DareStep (User-Centered Solutions), m-Commerce

101 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Cisco joint venture enhance our ability to provide end-to-end client solutions TELECOM MEDIA NETWORKS 7,000 systems integration and management consulting experts worldwide focused on communications consulting & integration Americas Asia Pacific Benelux Germany Nordic UK France S. Europe Energy & Utilities Fiancial Services Life Sciences & Chemicals Manufacturing High Tech & Transport Consumer Porducts, retail & Distribution High Growth Business

102 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Leadership Position The E&Y merger makes us one of the worlds largest business consulting and systems integrators for communications Globa reach, with over thirty locations in the US, Europe, and Asia Revenues (2000) approaching 1.4 billion euros Over 30% growth annually over past 5 years Dedicated pre-packaged solutions Almost 7,000 dedicated systems integration and management consultants The E&Y merger makes us one of the worlds largest business consulting and systems integrators for communications Globa reach, with over thirty locations in the US, Europe, and Asia Revenues (2000) approaching 1.4 billion euros Over 30% growth annually over past 5 years Dedicated pre-packaged solutions Almost 7,000 dedicated systems integration and management consultants Long-term Commitment to the Industry 30-year track record in the communications industry Serving 80% of the worlds top fifty communications companies Over 2,400 projects delivered worldwide to wireline, wireless, ISPs, IXCs, and broadcast operators Nine R&D and innovation labs (Atherton, Boston, Dallas, Paris, London, Munich, Singapore, and Utrecht). Broad portfolio of partners 30-year track record in the communications industry Serving 80% of the worlds top fifty communications companies Over 2,400 projects delivered worldwide to wireline, wireless, ISPs, IXCs, and broadcast operators Nine R&D and innovation labs (Atherton, Boston, Dallas, Paris, London, Munich, Singapore, and Utrecht). Broad portfolio of partners TELECOM MEDIA NETWORKS (TMN) is an established global leader

103 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 TELECOM MEDIA NETWORKS combines geographical reach with capabilities breadth Strategic Business Consulting Strategic Business Consulting AMERICAS CENTRAL EUROPE CENTRAL EUROPE ASIA PACIFIC ASIA PACIFIC BENELUX FRANCE UK NORDIC SOUTH EUROPE SOUTH EUROPE Network Infra- structure Solutions Network Infra- structure Solutions TMN Global Business Development Global Business Development

104 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 TeleMedia Lab (Atherton, Cal.) Qualifies technology vendors for integrated, packaged solutions Dial-in Access Network Unified Communications IP Call Centers PSTN-IP Interconnection IP Wireless Data IP Services E-commerce Internet Mobile x x x x x Gemini Strategic Research Group (England, Germany, and US) Conducts strategic industry and market research x IP Services ( England & France) IP Lab & Wireless Internet Center (Singapore) Advanced Development Center (Dallas) Identifies/tests technology/ partners early in the process definition cycle x x Mobile Technology Lab (Utrecht) Devoted to products and services for mobile Internet and mobile commerce. IP VPN Broadband Access Network VoIP Network IP Infrastructure (England & France) We operate an extensive R&D network to stay ahead of market developments

105 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Our Specialty Services Lines serves all content and transport players process and systems areas Content Digital Content Management Digital Content Management eServices Operation Support Operation Support Billing & Customer Admin. Billing & Customer Admin. Customer Relationship Management Customer Relationship Management Customers u Production u Edition u Storage u Distribution u Rights Management u Portals u Content aggregation u Interactive services u Directories u Messaging u Service fulfillment u Service Assurance u Pricing u Collection u Rating u Invoicing u Payment u Contact centers u One-to-one marketing u Self care Network Infrastructure Network Infrastructure u Design u Build u Operate 3G Mobile Broadband Media

106 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 Solution Sets are the go-to-market components of the Service Lines STRATEGY CRM BILLING OSS E-SERVICES DIGITAL CONTENT NETWORKING & OPERATIONS NETWORK GAP ANLAYSIS NOC IN-A-BOX METASOLV IMPLEMENT. Example of Solutions WAP/GPRS BILLING. TELCO-IN-A- BOX ADVANCED CALL CENTRE SELF-CARE CLEC LAUNCH KENAN-CLARIFY BSS IPVPN MGT xDSL MGT BROADBAND CABLE MGT GPRS/UMTS MGT UNIFIED COMMUNICATIONS PORTAL-TO-GO IMPLEMNT. 3G STRATEGY 3G LAUNCH

107 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 The Alliance portfolio encompasses major application areas

108 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 WIRELESS ISP MEDIA WIRELINE We serve 80% of the top 50 telecoms and media players world-wide

109 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 No m-system without integratorsNo e-business without strategicsNo i-forecasting without analysts No m-system without integrators No e-business without strategics No c-vision without imagineers No i-forecasting without analysts No c-vision without imagineers

110 Nice 3G2001 – / Mobile Future / JvK – sba4 ` Thank U


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