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TXU Energy Low Income Advisory Committee March 20, 2014 Irving, Texas Texas Population Characteristics, Trends, and Projections: Implications for Income.

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Presentation on theme: "TXU Energy Low Income Advisory Committee March 20, 2014 Irving, Texas Texas Population Characteristics, Trends, and Projections: Implications for Income."— Presentation transcript:

1 TXU Energy Low Income Advisory Committee March 20, 2014 Irving, Texas Texas Population Characteristics, Trends, and Projections: Implications for Income

2 Growing States, 2000-2010 2 2000 Population* 2010 Population* Numerical Change 2000-2010 Percent Change 2000-2010 United States 281,421,906308,745,53827,323,6329.7% Texas 20,851,82025,145,5614,293,74120.6% California 33,871,64837,253,9563,382,30810.0% Florida 15,982,37818,801,3102,818,93217.6% Georgia 8,186,4539,687,6531,501,20018.3% North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,17018.5% Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,38524.6% Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count. 65% (2.8 million) of this change can be attributed to growth of the Hispanic population

3 Percent Change Due to Y ear* Population Numerical Change Annual Percent Change Natural Increase Net Migration 19507,711,194-- 19609,579,6771,868,4832.493.916.09 197011,196,7301,617,0531.786.7413.26 198014,229,1913,032,4612.741.5858.42 199016,986,5102,757,3192.065.8534.15 200020,851,8203,865,3102.349.6550.35 201025,145,5614,293,7412.154.9445.06 201226,060,796 915,2351.852.0547.95 201326,448,193387,397 1.4 * All values for the decennial dates are for April 1 st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012 and 2013 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau. Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio. Note: Residual values are not presented in this table. Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2012 3

4 Total Estimated Population by County, 2012 4 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2012 Population Estimates Along and east of I-35: 40% of land 86% of population 92% of population growth (2011-2012)

5 Change of the Total Population by County, 2010 to 2012 5 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2012 Vintage. 96 counties lost population over the two year period Of counties that lost population 90% had net out migration 47% had natural decline

6 Percent Hispanic, Texas Counties, 2007-2011 6 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2007-2011

7 Percent Families and Persons Living Below Poverty in the Past 12 Months, Texas Counties, 2007-2011 7 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2007-2011

8 Percent of the population that is native born, Texas Counties, 2007-2011 8 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2007-2011

9 9 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Texas Economic Indicators, February 2014

10 Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010 10 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

11 Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 11 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

12 Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 12 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

13 Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 13 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

14 Percentage of Families Whose Income in the Past 12 Months is Below the Poverty Level, Texas 2006-2012 14 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year sample, 2006-2012

15 Household Income and Benefits, Texas, 2007-2012 15 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year sample, 2007-2012

16 Median Household Income (dollars), Texas, 2006-2012 16 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year sample, 2006-2012

17 Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050 17 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections

18 Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010-2050 18 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections, 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

19 Educational Attainment in Texas, 2011 Level of Educational Attainment Percent of persons aged 25 years and older State Ranking High school diploma or equivalency or greater 81.1%48/49/50 (tied with CA and MS) Bachelors or greater26.4%29 19 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, One-year Sample, 2011.

20 Race/Ethnic Composition by Education Level in the Labor Force (aged 25 years and more), Texas, 2009 20 Source: Derived from 2009 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates by the Office of the State Demographer. Less Than High School College and Greater

21 Trends in Educational Attainment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity – High School Graduates and Above Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011

22 Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates, and 2030 Using Trended Rates, Texas 22 Sources: Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011

23 Birth rates for teenagers aged 15–19, by race and Hispanic origin of mother: United States and each and state, 2011 Rank Area All races and origins Non- Hispanic white Non- Hispanic black Hispanic United States 31.321.847.449.4 1 Arkansas50.745.466.460.4 2 Mississippi50.240.861.442.9 3 New Mexico48.828.528.458.2 4 Oklahoma47.841.158.668.6 5 Texas46.927.447.465.7 6 Louisiana45.134.560.250.7 7 Kentucky43.542.451.557.6 8 West Virginia43.544.640.522.5 23 SOURCE: CDC/NCHS, Division of Vital Statistics. Preliminary data.

24 Four Consumption Tiers for the 100 Vintage by Size Categories Ranked by Consumption in Annual SKBTUs per Square Foot, Texas Single Family Housing Units 24 Size/Vintage Before 1948 1948- 1957 1958- 1966 1967- 1974 1975- 1981 1982- 1986 1987- 1995 1996- 2000 2001- 2004 After 2004 <10 Percentile 1235111022173049 10-19 Percentiles 46713252146444773 20-29 Percentiles 891520352856536281 30-39 Percentiles 14122427423463667192 40-49 Percentiles 16183133474076757795 50-59 Percentiles 19233738554378798596 60-69 Percentiles 26294552595082848797 70-79 Percentiles 32355658616083869398 80-89 Percentiles 394167656864889194100 90+ Percentile 51537274687089809099 N=306,147 single family housing units TIER 1 TIER 2 TIER 3 TIER 4

25 Archetype housing units 25 Tier: 1 2 3 3 4 Year Built: 1932 1977 1985 1971 2008 Square Feet: 942 1,384 1,675 2,030 3,117

26 Housing Units, Median Year Built, Census Tracts, Texas,2007-2011, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Five- Year Sample, 2007-2011.

27 Percent of households that are female headed with children less than 18 years of age present, no husband present, census tracts, Texas, 2007-2011 27 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Five- Year Sample, 2007-2011.

28 Percent of population aged 25 years and older with high school or greater, census tracts, Texas,2007-2011 28 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Five- Year Sample, 2007-2011.

29 Gini Coefficient, Household Income, Census Tracts, Texas, 2007-2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Five- Year Sample, 2007-2011.

30 Median Household Income, Census Tracts, Texas, 2007-2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Five- Year Sample, 2007-2011.

31 Demographics and Destiny 31

32 Contact Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530 Email: Lloyd.Potter@osd.state.tx.usLloyd.Potter@osd.state.tx.us Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us 32 Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.


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