Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Roadshow 2012 Private Wealth Management Deutsche Bank IMPORTANT NOTES WHEN WORKING WITH SCREENSHOW'S SAVE AS.PPTX ONLY PRINTING INSTRUCTIONS In order to.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Roadshow 2012 Private Wealth Management Deutsche Bank IMPORTANT NOTES WHEN WORKING WITH SCREENSHOW'S SAVE AS.PPTX ONLY PRINTING INSTRUCTIONS In order to."— Presentation transcript:

1 Roadshow 2012 Private Wealth Management Deutsche Bank IMPORTANT NOTES WHEN WORKING WITH SCREENSHOW'S SAVE AS.PPTX ONLY PRINTING INSTRUCTIONS In order to print correctly, ensure the following print settings are used: Color/grayscale:Color (regardless of printing in b/w) Scale to fit paper:ON Print hidden slides:OFF WORKING WITH CHARTS: BEST PRACTICE Charts should use MS Graph. Note there are still printing issues when trying to print in greyscale. The best way to work with charts is: Copy MS graph objects off the edge of the slide Open charts by right-clicking on the MS Graph object and select: Chart Object > Open Make required edits Copy the MS Graph object and paste as a picture : Home > Clipboard > Paste > Paste Special > Picture (Enhanced metafile) Position the chart on the slide and ungroup (Ctrl + Shift + G). This enables printing in greyscale DISCLAIMER A disclaimer is not usually required for screenshows. However, it may be required depending on the presentation's contents/use. Users should consult Legal/Compliance as required. Ten Issues for 2012 Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management Charity Trustees Investors Association Seminar April 2012

2 Roadshow 2012 Private Wealth Management Deutsche Bank 1 Past performance is not indicative of future returns. No assurance can be given that any investment objectives and/or expected returns can be achieved. Ten Issues for 2012 The Year(s) the Bill Comes Due 1 Global Economic Governance in Transition2 Rewriting the Social Contract 3 The World is Getting Smaller and More Complex 4 Reason Should Dominate Emotion 5 Safe May Not be Safe 6 Walk Before You Run7 Big Will Grow Bigger 8 Nimble... and Selective 9 Asian Growth Generates Performance At Last 10

3 Roadshow 2012 Private Wealth Management Deutsche Bank 2 Past performance is not indicative of future returns. No assurance can be given that any investment objectives and/or expected returns can be achieved. Data Source: FactSet The Year(s) the Bill Comes Due 1 While the total bill is due over the coming decades, it is a deterioration of confidence that could cause the cost of funding this debt to become unmanageable. The gross interest expense on national debt was $414 billion in 2010, significantly higher than the amount of money used to fund programs such as the departments of labor, agriculture, veterans affairs and education. The Interest Rate ChallengeHeavy Redemptions in Europe Developed economies fiscal problems could come under pressure in early 2012 as the Eurozone has heavy re-financing needs during the first four months of the year. Data Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP

4 Roadshow 2012 Private Wealth Management Deutsche Bank 3 Source: National Central Banks, DB Research, Deutsche Bank Global Investment Solutions; December 2011 Account balance in bln. Euro Creditors and Debtors in Euroland Euro-Core Countries Germany, Finland, the Netherlands and Luxembourg are creditors High debt in the peripheral countries. However, France as core country is a major debtor Global economic governance in transition 2 Past performance is not indicative of future returns. No assurance can be given that any investment objectives and/or expected returns can be achieved. Main creditor Creditor Balanced Debtor Main debtor

5 Roadshow 2012 Private Wealth Management Deutsche Bank Public Spending at High Levels 4 Past performance is not indicative of future returns. No assurance can be given that any investment objectives and/or expected returns can be achieved. Data Source: Heritage Foundation, Tax Foundation and Internal Revenue Service Rewriting the social contract 3 Taxing the Consumer? U.S. Taxes at Historically Low Levels Both income and corporate tax rates continue to be at the lowest levels in history. Increasing demands on government entitlements will likely necessitate higher taxes. Source: Factset, Deutsche Bank –Most European countries will face their heaviest demographic burdens between 2025 and 2040, however Greece and Spain will face theirs sooner. –Labour participation is another risk that further makes the pension system expensive. Greece, Italy and Spain, in particular, have low labour participation rate. –One sustainable solution according to the International Monetary Fund is to increase the retirement age.

6 Roadshow 2012 Private Wealth Management Deutsche Bank 5 Heightened Rolling Correlation Past performance is not indicative of future returns. No assurance can be given that any investment objectives and/or expected returns can be achieved. The correlation (90-day) between European equities (MSCI Europe ex UK) and U.S. equities (S&P 500) is near record high levels. Data Source: FactSet The world is getting smaller and more complex 4 Correlations to Remain Heightened Over 90 trading days with price moves in excess of 1% have occurred eight times in last 30 years Heightened volatility emerged again in 2011 as 95 trading days saw S&P 500 Index gains or losses in excess of 1%. This marked the third in four years in which more than 90 trading days saw swings of that magnitude. Over the last 30 years, the S&P 500 Index has seen more than 90 trading days with +/-1% changes only 8 times. Heightened Volatility Remains

7 Roadshow 2012 Private Wealth Management Deutsche Bank Average Investor Has Missed a Lot of Alpha 6 Fund Flows to Equities Past performance is not indicative of future returns. No assurance can be given that any investment objectives and/or expected returns can be achieved. Reason Should Dominate Emotion Historically, Emotions have Lead to Subpar Performance Fund flows tend to be a contrarian indicator. As inflows peak, the market is often more susceptible to experiencing a pullback. Currently, net new equity fund flows remain negative which could be a positive for equity performance. Data Source: ICIData Source: FactSet, DALBAR DALBARs 17th annual Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior Guide report shows that over the long term (last 20 years), the average equity and fixed income investor has dramatically lagged the passive benchmark indices. 5

8 Roadshow 2012 Private Wealth Management Deutsche Bank 7 Interest Rate Sensitivity: A Small Yield Increase Can Have a Huge Negative Effect Past performance is not indicative of future returns. No assurance can be given that any investment objectives and/or expected returns can be achieved. Safe May Not Be Safe Bonds Could be More Volatile Than You Think The high interest rate sensitivity of bonds (e.g. high duration) means it does not take much movement in yields to lead to negative performance. Data Source: Bloomberg Finance LP Footnote; Data as of and returns are 12 month returns. Forecasted Range of Treasury Yields 6

9 Roadshow 2012 Private Wealth Management Deutsche Bank Dividends a Global Theme 8 The Power of Dividend Compounding Past performance is not indicative of future returns. No assurance can be given that any investment objectives and/or expected returns can be achieved. Walk Before You Run Dividend Paying Stocks Remain Attractive Since 1988, dividends have accounted for 69% of the total return of the FTALLShare. Data Source: FactSet, DB The dividend theme is a global theme as many major equity indices around the globe have dividend yields in excess of 2%. 7 69% 31%

10 Roadshow 2012 Private Wealth Management Deutsche Bank U.S. Large Caps Trade at Discount 9 European Large Caps Trade at Discount Past performance is not indicative of future returns. No assurance can be given that any investment objectives and/or expected returns can be achieved. Fundamentals Globally Favour Large Cap UK large cap stocks are trading at a discount relative to UK mid and small caps. S&P 500 large cap stocks are trading at a discount relative to the S&P mid and small caps. Big Will Grow Bigger 8 Data Source: FactSet, DB

11 Roadshow 2012 Private Wealth Management Deutsche Bank 10 Looking for Attractive Valuations Past performance is not indicative of future returns. No assurance can be given that any investment objectives and/or expected returns can be achieved. Be Nimble… and Selective Fundamental Factors The three most attractively valued sectors include healthcare, information technology, and energy. Data Source: FactSet Footnote: Relative to 15 year average P/E, P/BV, P/S, PEG, EV/EBITDA 9

12 Roadshow 2012 Private Wealth Management Deutsche Bank 11 IMF 2011 Estimates – Debt-to-GDP Ratios by Country (Top 75 Countries)* Past performance is not indicative of future returns. No assurance can be given that any investment objectives and/or expected returns can be achieved. Asia has Financial Flexibility Data Source: International Monetary Fund. Source: Deutsche Bank Investment Strategy Group. Footnote: *Ranked by 2011 estimates of GDP (in USD) Asian Growth Generates Performance At Last 10

13 Roadshow 2012 Private Wealth Management Deutsche Bank 12 What Does it Mean for Sterling Investors? What to Do? 12 Analyse the Facts There are major headwinds to recovery from excess indebtedness but fiscal contraction is not as severe as feared, yet, and deficits are diminishing. Growth Some key indicators around the world, principally ex-Europe are beginning to flash green: PMIs, Sales, Personal Income growth. Growth is not equally divided across the globe, geographic diversification post-crisis is important as de-correlation becomes evident. UK and US are well placed as are EMs Inflation CPI numbers are rolling over suggesting that policy ease in the West can be maintained and policy easing can occur in the EMs supporting local markets Financial Imbalances There is some indication that China recognises and is taking steps to avoid the build-up of further excess reserves. Germany by contrast continues to finance Southern European spending. This is unsustainable. Entitlement Spending Wealth creation and wealth distribution can conflict. Social expenditures will be constrained and pension ages raised. So far, agreement has been surprisingly easy to find? Safe May not be Safe Safe assets but toxic prices. Investors frequently tax their own returns by buying high and selling low. Risk assets offer high cash returns at historically low valuation metrics. Safe assets offer low or zero cash yields at unprecedented prices!

14 Roadshow 2012 Private Wealth Management Deutsche Bank Identifier Deutsche Bank Global Investment Solutions 2011 Q3 Equity Playbook 13 Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management offers wealth management solutions for wealthy individuals, their families and select institutions worldwide. Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management, through Deutsche Bank AG, its affiliated companies and its officers and employees (collectively Deutsche Bank) are communicating this document in good faith and on the following basis. This document is for information purposes only and is not intended to be an offer or solicitation, or the basis for any contract to purchase or sell any security, or other instrument, or for Deutsche Bank to enter into or arrange any type of transaction as a consequence of any information contained herein. It has been prepared without consideration of the investment needs, objectives or financial circumstances of any investor. Before making an investment decision, investors need to consider, with or without the assistance of an investment adviser, whether the investments and strategies described or provided by Deutsche Bank, are appropriate, in light of their particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. We assume no responsibility to advise the recipients of this document with regard to changes in our views. Deutsche Bank does not give taxation or legal advice. Investors should seek advice from their own taxation agents and lawyers, in considering investments and strategies suggested by Deutsche Bank. The terms of any investment will be exclusively subject to the detailed provisions, including risk considerations, contained in the Offering Documents. When making an investment decision, you should rely on the final documentation relating to the investment and not the summary contained in this document. Further information is available upon investor's request. Although information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness or fairness, and it should not be relied upon as such. All opinions and estimates herein, including forecast returns, reflect our judgement on the date of this report, are subject to change without notice and involve a number of assumptions which may not prove valid. Further, investment in international markets can be affected by a host of factors, including political or social conditions, diplomatic relations, limitations or removal of funds or assets or imposition of (or change in) exchange control or tax regulations in such markets. Additionally, investments denominated in an alternative currency will be subject to currency risk, changes in exchange rates which may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of the investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Nothing contained herein shall constitute any representation or warranty as to future performance. The products mentioned in this document are subject to investment risk including market fluctuations, regulatory change, counterparty risk, possible delays in repayment and loss of income and principal invested. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. No assurance can be given that any investment described herein would yield favorable investment results. In general, the securities and financial instruments presented herein are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation ("FDIC"), and are not guaranteed by or obligations of Deutsche Bank AG or its affiliates. We or our affiliates or persons associated with us may act upon or use material in this report prior to publication. DB may engage in transactions in a manner inconsistent with the views discussed herein. Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by departments or other divisions or affiliates of Deutsche Bank. This document contains forward looking statements. Forward looking statements include, but are not limited to assumptions, estimates, projections, opinions, models and hypothetical performance analysis. The forward looking statements expressed constitute the authors judgement as of the date of this material. Forward looking statements involve significant elements of subjective judgements and analyses and changes thereto and/or consideration of different or additional factors could have a material impact on the results indicated. Therefore, actual results may vary, perhaps materially, from the results contained herein. No representation or warranty is made by Deutsche Bank as to there reasonableness or completeness of such forward looking statements or to any other financial information contained in this document. This document may not be reproduced or circulated without our written authority. The manner of circulation and distribution of this document may be restricted by law or regulation in certain countries, including the United States. This document is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, including the United States, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject Deutsche Bank to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction not currently met within such jurisdiction. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of, and to observe, such restrictions. © 2012 Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management is a trading name of Tilney Investment Management. Registered in England No Registered Office: Royal Liver Building, Pier Head, Liverpool L3 1NY. Tilney Investment Management is a member of the London Stock Exchange and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. FSA Register Number , Tilney Investment Management is a member of the Deutsche Bank Group. Issued on behalf of DB PWM, December 2012


Download ppt "Roadshow 2012 Private Wealth Management Deutsche Bank IMPORTANT NOTES WHEN WORKING WITH SCREENSHOW'S SAVE AS.PPTX ONLY PRINTING INSTRUCTIONS In order to."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google