Presentation on theme: "Mergers & Acquisitions, Capital Markets & Bank Valuation Update ICBA Community Bank Day May 20, 2014 Presented by: Thomas R. Mecredy."— Presentation transcript:
Mergers & Acquisitions, Capital Markets & Bank Valuation Update ICBA Community Bank Day May 20, 2014 Presented by: Thomas R. Mecredy
Current M&A Environment Key Factors Driving Community Bank M&A Gap in trading multiples between the big and small banks Failed bank deals have run the course Improved asset quality – reduced credit marks Challenging operating environment (loan growth, NIM pressure) Slow organic revenue growth (and outlook for growth) Compliance costs are increasing Increased capital requirements Regulatory fatigue 2
Current M&A Environment Pricing has been steadily improving & more deals have been announced at attractive premiums Activity is increasing and interest in M&A is high Buyers are maintaining financial discipline Better performing banks are considering sale Strategic mergers are a viable alternative to sale 3
Industry Performance Under$1 BillionOver $1 Billion ROAA (1)0.73%0.91% ROAE (1)6.70%8.50% Net Interest Margin3.31%3.47% Efficiency Ratio71.57%65.10% Net Charge-Offs0.13%0.21% Nonperforming Assets/Total Assets1.25%1.33% Loan Loss Provision Expense0.08%0.11% Tier 1 Leverage Ratio10.20%9.75% Loan Growth Rate3.3%6.3% Deposit Growth Rate1.1%2.9% Median for all commercial & savings banks (1) S-Corporation companies adjusted to C-Corporation status Source: SNL Financial
Acquisition Multiples Remain at Depressed Levels, but Improving 5 Source: SNL Financial Median Price/Book (x) Median Price/Tang. Book (x) Median Price/Earnings (x) Median Core Deposit Premium (%)
Bank & Thrift Deal Count by Pricing 6 Source: SNL Financial
Current M&A Environment Consolidation is expected to be more at the smaller asset-size companies for a number of reasons including: Regulatory costs Larger relative number (over 6,000 private companies, 41% of which are Sub S) 7 U.S. Banking Companies by Assets
Eight Year Trend in Number of Banks (05 to 13) 8 Source: SNL Financial
What Drives Value 9 After reviewing the top 10% of deal values (based on the price to tangible book value) each year over the previous 11 years and noted the following key factors: Size Geography Performance (ROAA) Metro vs. rural markets Asset quality Deposit mix and deposits per branch
Current M&A Environment – Buyer Considerations 10 Does your company have the necessary acquisition currency, capital capacity and/or access to capital to acquire a bank? Does your company have the necessary risk management acumen and best practice processes to integrate an acquisition target? Are you in good standing with the regulators? Does your company have the human and technological platform in place? Are you prepared to manage the risk of market extension or out-of- market transactions? Does the board and management team have the level of engagement, stamina and vision to focus on growth through M&A?
Consult Regulators Early 11 New normal for regulatory approvals You need to know what the issues are as early as possible and preferably before a specific transaction is contemplated Let regulators know about your appetite for deals; they should welcome discussion of what they will expect Let regulators know about a specific transaction before it is fully baked Early feedback allows efficient mid-course corrections and avoids bad surprises and needless delays
Hidden Costs of M&A 12 Employment contracts Stock options Executive salary continuation agreements (SERP) BOLI Director retirement agreements (DRP) Key employees (pay to stay, severance pay, change-of-control payments) 280G tax issues Data processing break-up fees Problem loan sales Professional fees Merger run-off / employee pirating Mark to market issues (FAS 141R)
EPS Dilution/Accretion Analysis 13 Compare stand-alone EPS to pro forma EPS post-acquisition Conventional wisdom: If pro forma EPS equals or exceeds stand- alone EPS, then the deal has acceptable financial returns. Reality: EPS accretion does not necessarily mean that a deal has acceptable financial returns Example: An all cash deal that is EPS neutral/modestly accretive If you are spending/investing capital in a deal, it is important to earn a return commensurate with the amount invested and risk of the deal. Purchase accounting requirements complicate this analysis.
Historical Earnings & Tangible Book Value Impacts 14
Seller Dynamics 15 Value if sold today taking into account: Price to earnings multiples Price to book and tangible book multiples Price to deposits Premium on core deposits Discounted cash flow / earnings analysis Merging with a peer bank (strategic merger) Ability to pay analysis Sell now / sell later analysis Other factors impacting sale decision: Liquidity needs Slower growth / declining earnings Management / staffing Regulatory burden Economic indicators
The Sales Process 16 Level of marketing / use of an adviser: Single party negotiations Limited auction process Full scale auction process Key question: Can we get the same pricing and avoid the auction or limited auction process?
Current M&A Environment – Who will be the Sellers? 17 Frequently a member of the family that founded the bank Family legacy over many generations Often has spent most of their working career in this bank Bank represents a significant portion of their retirement funds and estate Typically over 65 years old Many times health is an issue Proud of their accomplishments Important members of the community Current generation is not as committed as earlier generation
Typical Pricing Terms 18 Cash Transaction Example Fixed Price plus Interim Earnings: Interim earnings are typically from the date (quarter end) of original offer through closing Interim earnings excludes (or prohibits) nonrecurring gains Carve-out for transaction related costs (professional fees, contract termination fees, CIC/severance payments, etc.) Fixed Price with Minimum Equity Provision: Minimum equity typically established as of the most recent quarter or month end prior to agreement Minimum equity can be a price adjustment or a closing condition Carve-out for transaction related costs (professional fees, contract termination fees, CIC/severance payments, etc.)
Strategic Mergers-Typical Characteristics 19 Typically an all stock exchange - sometimes involves a special dividend/cash payment to equate value Ownership split is driven by relative value contribution with little to no premium paid to either party Value creation comes from shared cost savings, synergies and other value enhancement of the combined company Negotiation one-off deal – not a competitive bid process Equal or proportionate (to share ownership) representation on the board and senior management team Best practices philosophy often followed with other areas
Strategic Mergers are Difficult to Accomplish 20 Financial issues: The exchange of equity at a price that is potentially not the highest possible price All members of both boards have to be aligned with strategic merits of combination If there is an obvious third party that can pay a significant premium, the likelihood of success is limited Transaction is difficult to protect with customary deal protections
Scarcity of Strategic Mergers 21 Total M&A Deals Since 20022,603 Strategic Mergers (1)52 % of Total2.0% Mergers of Equals (2)29 % of Total1.1% (1)As defined by SNL Financial. (2)Strategic mergers in which the relative assets of the parties is no more than 60%/40%.
Strategic Mergers 22 Improves EPS accretion via cost and / or revenue savings Improves geographic scope, product mix and / or management – fills strategic void Builds critical mass and expands or preserves the franchise Diversifies and adds granularity to loan portfolio and funding base May fail to create business line and product scope Requires compromise on business and social issues, including: Business model CEO / CEO responsibilities Chairman / Chairman responsibilities Responsibilities of CFO and other senior management Board composition / representation Headquarters location Name of holding company Name of bank subsidiaries Sharing of cost savings Where to cut the pie No or low premiums can discourage shareholders, especially if banks were acquirable One party ultimately loses voting control – for no / less premium Advantages Disadvantages
Bank Equity Market Performance Review / 2014 Outlook Strong equity market performance in 2013 Banks over $1 billion were up 83% in 2013 and 122% since 2011 Banks under $1 billion were up 37% in 2013 and 60% since 2011 Banks over $1 billion trade at 69% price/tangible book premium and 17% price/earnings premium to smaller banks Pricing differential supported by underlying financial performance Valuations are now approaching intrinsic value – but not overvalued More room for bank stocks to increase, but significant equity market gains are behind us Valuation gap for strong and weak banks will increase Banks with strong performance and currencies will dominate M&A
Bank Equity Market Performance 25 Source: SNL Financial
Conclusion 26 Asset quality concerns are near pre-cycle levels Growth/earnings growth is now driving pricing Still a buyers market in most areas of the U.S. Rising rates will again make deposits attractive Negotiated transactions are becoming favored, which allows sellers to pick a buyer with the most upside/best currency Strategic mergers will continue, but will remain difficult Diminished importance of branch network EPS accretion and synergies are most important Challenges of scale for small banks and challenges of regulation for the largest banks will create a sweet spot from a valuation standpoint Focus on tangible book value dilution and immediate EPS accretion and earn-back period when pricing a deal
Thank You 27 Thomas R. Mecredy Vining Sparks Community Bank Advisory Group Intended for institutional investors only. Although the information included in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy. All opinions expressed in this report constitute the judgments as of the dates indicated and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informative purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any product. The accuracy of the financial projections is dependent on the occurrence of future events which cannot be assured; therefore, the actual results achieved during the projection period may vary from the projections. Member FINRA/SIPC.