Presentation on theme: "ROAD TO DOHA www.isciences.com November 16, 2012 The 10 th installment in an ongoing series on multilateral agreements related to climate change."— Presentation transcript:
ROAD TO DOHA www.isciences.com November 16, 2012 The 10 th installment in an ongoing series on multilateral agreements related to climate change
Introduction Kyoto and Beyond is a series of presentations on the evolving international climate treaty process that began with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 1992. Road to Doha is a summary of preparations for COP18, the 18th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC and the 8th session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol, which will be held Nov. 26 – Dec. 7, 2012 in Doha, Qatar. COP18 * Available at http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.htmlhttp://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html Other presentations in the Kyoto and Beyond series include*: 2008 Kyoto and Beyond 2008 Kyoto and Beyond 2009 Kyoto and Beyond, Update 2009 Kyoto and Beyond, Update 2009 Report on Copenhagen COP15 2009 Report on Copenhagen COP15 2010 Road to Cancun COP16 2010 Road to Cancun COP16 2011 Report on Cancun COP16 2011 Report on Cancun COP16 2011 Road to Durban COP17 2011 Road to Durban COP17 2012 Report on Durban COP17 2012 Report on Durban COP17 2012 Road to Rio+20 2012 Road to Rio+20 2012 Report on Rio+20 2012 Report on Rio+20 2Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)
Contents Historical Background Conference Overview Multilateral Process Issues & Positions Possible Outcomes This presentation includes hyperlinks to additional information indicated by underlined text. 3Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)
Background: Timeline 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 1992 | 1997 | 2002 | 2007 | 2012 4Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 2009 Copenhagen Accord drafted at COP15 2009 Copenhagen Accord drafted at COP15 2011 Durban Platform adopted at COP17 2011 Durban Platform adopted at COP17 2007 IPCC 4 th Assessment Report 2007 IPCC 4 th Assessment Report 2010 Cancun Agreements drafted at COP16 2010 Cancun Agreements drafted at COP16 1990 IPCC 1 st Assessment Report released 1990 IPCC 1 st Assessment Report released 1995 IPCC 2 nd Assessment Report 1995 IPCC 2 nd Assessment Report 1997 Kyoto Protocol adopted 1997 Kyoto Protocol adopted 2001 IPCC 3 rd Assessment Report 2001 IPCC 3 rd Assessment Report Arctic Sea Ice Extent Sept. 1999 Arctic Sea Ice Extent Sept. 2011 (Image Credit: NASA) 2005 Kyoto Protocol enters into force 2005 Kyoto Protocol enters into force
Background: UNFCCC, 1992 The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an international climate treaty whose objective is to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere. UNFCCC 5Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) The treaty was drafted at the UN Conference on Environment and Development (the Earth Summit) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 1992. The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments …is to achieve … stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner. – Article 2, UNFCCC 1992 Called a framework convention, it is a starting point. Though it sets no mandatory GHG limits or enforcement mechanisms, it provides for updates (protocols) to do so. The UNFCCC entered into force in 1994 and convenes an annual Conference of the Parties (COP) for its 195 members to assess progress. (Image Credit: UNFCCC)
Background: UNFCCC, Annex Parties The Convention divides countries into three groups according to differing commitments The Convention divides countries into three groups according to differing commitments. 6Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) Annex I Parties: developed countries required to reduce emissions. Industrialized countries who were members of the OECD* in 1992, plus countries with economies in transition (EIT). Annex I Parties: developed countries required to reduce emissions. Industrialized countries who were members of the OECD* in 1992, plus countries with economies in transition (EIT). Annex I Parties Annex I Parties Annex II Parties: developed countries required to provide financial resources and technology transfer to developing countries and to EIT countries for emissions reductions. Includes Annex I, but not EIT countries. Annex II Parties: developed countries required to provide financial resources and technology transfer to developing countries and to EIT countries for emissions reductions. Includes Annex I, but not EIT countries. Annex II Parties Annex II Parties Non-Annex I Parties: developing countries. The Convention also recognizes the needs of certain groups of developing countries who are especially vulnerable to adverse impacts of climate change and to economic impacts of climate change response measures. Non-Annex I Parties: developing countries. The Convention also recognizes the needs of certain groups of developing countries who are especially vulnerable to adverse impacts of climate change and to economic impacts of climate change response measures. Non-Annex I Parties Non-Annex I Parties * Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Background: COP3 Kyoto, 1997 The UNFCCCs COP3 produced the Kyoto Protocol (KP), a legally binding addition that assigns national limits for GHG emissions. 7Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) The KP regulates six GHGs: carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ). The KP regulates six GHGs: carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ).KP Annex I countries agreed to reduce emissions an average of 5% below 1990; Non-Annex countries are not bound; targets vary by country. International aviation and shipping are exempt. Annex I countries agreed to reduce emissions an average of 5% below 1990; Non-Annex countries are not bound; targets vary by country. International aviation and shipping are exempt.targets The US did not ratify the KP, China and India (Non-Annex nations with high emissions) are not bound by it, Canada has withdrawn, and Russia and Japan may not commit beyond 2012. (Image Credit: UNFCCC) The UNFCCC created national inventories of emissions/removals to establish 1990 benchmarks. To assess progress Annex I countries provide regular inventory updates. The UNFCCC created national inventories of emissions/removals to establish 1990 benchmarks. To assess progress Annex I countries provide regular inventory updates.national inventoriesnational inventories The KP is binding but with no severe penalty for noncompliance. It opened for signatures in 1997, entered into force in 2005, has 193 Parties; 1 st commitment period is 2008-2012. The KP is binding but with no severe penalty for noncompliance. It opened for signatures in 1997, entered into force in 2005, has 193 Parties; 1 st commitment period is 2008-2012.
Background: COPs 15 & 16 8Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) COP15 Copenhagen, Denmark, 2009 failed to establish a new agreement to follow the KP, whose 1 st commitment period expires Dec. 31, 2012. Through a last minute, non-conference effort The Copenhagen Accord – unofficial, non-binding and voluntary – was drafted, establishing a 2 C target for capping global temperature increase. The Copenhagen AccordThe Copenhagen Accord Recent COPs have not engendered confidence in the ability of the multilateral process to improve the global emissions pathway in time or at scale. COP16 Cancun, Mexico, 2010 also failed to resolve the future of the KP. Still, the Cancun Agreements included work on: Green Climate Fund; REDD+; Measurement, Reporting, and Verification; Incorporation of the Copenhagen Accord; & Adaptation Framework. Cancun AgreementsGreen Climate Fund REDD+Measurement, Reporting, and VerificationAdaptation FrameworkCancun AgreementsGreen Climate Fund REDD+Measurement, Reporting, and VerificationAdaptation Framework (Image Credit: UNFCCC)
Background: A Milestone in 2011? COP17 in Durban, South Africa proposed a 2 nd KP period and broke new ground by creating a roadmap for a post-KP treaty that will require commitments from both developed and developing nations. 9Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) The Parties should protect the climate system …on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. Accordingly, the developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof. – UNFCCC Article 3, Paragraph 1, 1992 The Durban Platform reinterpreted the UNFCCs common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) principle by emphasizing common responsibilities. Durban PlatformDurban Platform This change may encourage influential US engagement by requiring commitments from previously exempt nations whose emissions are substantial, such as China and India. Also decides to launch a process to develop a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention applicable to all Parties … – Durban Platform for Enhanced Action, 2011 However, the thorny details of this new leveling must be advanced in Doha, and the issues of respective capabilities and historical responsibility remain divisive. (Image Credit: UNFCCC)
Overview: COP18 Doha 2012 COP18 will be held Nov. 26 – Dec. 7, 2012 in Doha, Qatar. The 2012 meeting is the 18 th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC and the 8 th session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol. 10Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) * Following the procedural rules of the UNFCCC, the office of COP President and host country rotates among the 5 UN regional groups.5 UN regional groups The Conference will be hosted by Abdullah bin Hamad al- Attiyah, President-Designate of COP18/CMP8* and Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC. Al-Attiyah is Director of Qatars Administrative Control and Transparency Authority. More than 17,000 people are expected, representing 195 nations and more than 5,000 observer organizations.
Overview: COP18 Objectives COP18s primary objectives are to finalize the extended KP, close the LCA, and create an all-inclusive new treaty from the directive of the Durban Platform. 11Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) Finalize the KP 2 nd Commitment Period. Adopt duration, emissions targets, and rules. Finalize the KP 2 nd Commitment Period. Adopt duration, emissions targets, and rules. Close the LCA. Resolve remaining issues of the AWG-LCA (Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action) under the Bali Action Plan* and retire the LCA in Doha. Close the LCA. Resolve remaining issues of the AWG-LCA (Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action) under the Bali Action Plan* and retire the LCA in Doha.AWG-LCA Bali Action PlanAWG-LCA Bali Action Plan Create a new treaty. Translate the all-inclusive directive of the Durban Platform into a new, post-KP legal instrument under which all nations will have emissions reduction targets. Create a new treaty. Translate the all-inclusive directive of the Durban Platform into a new, post-KP legal instrument under which all nations will have emissions reduction targets. * More about the Bali Action Plan http://unfccc.int/meetings/bali_dec_2007/meeting/6319.php
Overview: Qatars Leadership Hosting a climate conference in the heart of the oil- producing Gulf will test Qatars leadership and commitment to the issues. 12Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) (Image Credit: Courtesy of State of Qatar, http://www.cop18.qa) Qatar has the highest per-capita CO 2 emissions in the world*, almost double the next-highest (Kuwait), and three times the US. 2 nd highest per-capita income country, lowest unemployment 2 nd highest per-capita income country, lowest unemployment oil/gas 50% of GDP, 85% of export earnings, 70% of government revenues oil/gas 50% of GDP, 85% of export earnings, 70% of government revenues oil reserves of 25 billion, enabling output for 57 years oil reserves of 25 billion, enabling output for 57 years natural gas reserves of 25 trillion cubic meters, 3 rd largest & 13% of world total natural gas reserves of 25 trillion cubic meters, 3 rd largest & 13% of world total QATAR FACTS** Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah,al-Attiyah President COP 18 (Image Credit: UNFCCC) COP18 President al-Attiyah has been prominent in Qatars energy industry for 30 years and served as Chairman of Qatar Petroleum, the state-owned company which operates all of Qatars oil and gas activities. Qatar could improve its climate leadership by making a mitigation pledge and persuading other Arab nations to pledge. * World Bank **World Factbook 2012
Overview: Qatars Readiness The wealthy nation of Qatar is not lacking in resources to comfortably host COP18. 13Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) The Conference venue is Qatar National Convention Centre (QNCC), a gold LEED-certified project whose facade was inspired by the Sidra tree, a traditional Qatari meeting place for scholars and poets. Qatar has increasingly positioned itself as a mediating force in the Middle East and has hosted global summits on economic, technological, and trade issues. (Image Credit: Qatar National Convention Centre) (Image Credit: Qatar Foundation) These changes are part of Qatars stated ambition to move from a carbon economy to a knowledge economy. QNCC FACTS QNCC FACTS 3 levels 3 levels 40,000 square meters of exhibition space 40,000 square meters of exhibition space 2,300 seat theatre 2,300 seat theatre three other auditoriums three other auditoriums 57 meeting rooms 57 meeting rooms green technologies for water saving, energy efficiency, indoor environment quality, solar panels green technologies for water saving, energy efficiency, indoor environment quality, solar panels To raise environmental awareness mosques will host lectures on the environment, energy, and climate change.
Process: UN Preparations The UNFCCC multilateral preparatory process for COP18 involves many interconnected UN bodies and working groups. 14Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) (Image Credit: UNFCCC, http://unfccc.int/bodies/items/ 6241.php)
Process: Pre-COP Meeting, Bonn The May 2012 Bonn Climate Change Conference was tense and unproductive, challenged by a heavy workload and bickering over procedural issues. 15Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) Lack of progress in Bonn necessitated an additional meeting to convene in Bangkok, presenting a financial challenge for UN resources. If this slow pace of negotiations continues... it poses the risk of unraveling the Durban package...We are very concerned that the spirit of cooperation that prevailed in Durban has not carried over into this session. Christian Pilgaard Zinglersen, EU delegate If this slow pace of negotiations continues... it poses the risk of unraveling the Durban package...We are very concerned that the spirit of cooperation that prevailed in Durban has not carried over into this session. Christian Pilgaard Zinglersen, EU delegate Delegates were charged with the onerous tasks of: ensuring a smooth transition between KP periods; ensuring a smooth transition between KP periods; aligning remaining workflows with new directives; aligning remaining workflows with new directives; interpreting the constructively ambiguous language of the Durban Platform. interpreting the constructively ambiguous language of the Durban Platform. Discussions were mired in lengthy bickering over agendas and election of officers, some unresolved until the last day. Dissention between and within negotiating blocs, as well as the formation of a new bloc, added to the unrest and reflected the changing dynamics in the 20 years since UNFCCC principles were forged. new blocnew bloc
Process: Pre-COP Meeting, Bangkok 16Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) Legal transition to a 2 nd KP period* requires an amendment and ratification. Options were discussed that may enable countries to participate while awaiting ratification. The informal additional session in Bangkok Aug. 30-Sept. 5, though confusing at times, ultimately eased tensions from Bonn and put negotiations on track. * AWG-KP, Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol; **AWG-LCA, Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention; ***ADP, Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action Two Durban Platform*** work streams established in Bonn were initiated in Bangkok: enhancing mitigation ambition pre-2020, and the post-2020 regime. Universality of application, said some, should not become uniformity of application. Plans for resolving elements under the LCA** were divided, with developed countries contending that issues have been concluded or integrated while developing countries disagreed. By the end of the session most parties agreed that some progress had been made on all three tracks. UN Building, Thailand (Image Credit: United Nations Thailand)
Process: Conference Schedule 17Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) CMP – Conference of the Parties service as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol Conference of the Parties service as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto ProtocolConference of the Parties service as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol SBI – Subsidiary Body for Implementation Subsidiary Body for ImplementationSubsidiary Body for Implementation SBSTA – Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical AdviceSubsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice AWG-KP – Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto ProtocolAd Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol AWG-LCA – Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the ConventionAd Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention ADP – Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced ActionAd Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action The 12-day gathering at COP18 in Doha includes meetings of CMP, SBI, SBSTA, AWG-KP, AWG-LCA, and ADP. SESSIONDATEAGENDA COP 18 COP 18 26 Nov – 7 Dec 2012 FCCC/CP/2012/1 CMP 8 CMP 8 26 Nov – 7 Dec 2012 FCCC/KP/CMP/2012/1 SBI 37 SBI 37 26 Nov – 1 Dec 2012 FCCC/SBI/2012/16 SBSTA 37 SBSTA 37 26 Nov – 1 Dec 2012 FCCC/SBSTA/2012/3 AWG-KP 17-2 AWG-KP 17-2 27 Nov - 7 Dec 2012 AWGKP/2012/AGENDA AWG-LCA 15-2 AWG-LCA 15-2 27 Nov - 7 Dec 2012 AWGLCA/2012/AGENDA ADP 1-2 ADP 1-2 28 Nov - 7 Dec 2012 ADP/2012/AGENDA SCHEDULE OF MEETINGS (Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons)
Issues: KP2, Transition Ensuring a smooth transition to the KP 2 nd commitment period at this late date will be challenging, with many details yet to be resolved. 18Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) Duration. The EU favors an 8-yr period (2013-2020) in line with their own targets for 2020. Developing countries are pushing for 5 years (2013-2017), fearing a longer period will only delay action by major emitters. * See also Possible elements for a Doha decision adopting the Kyoto Protocol amendments Possible elements for a Doha decision adopting the Kyoto Protocol amendmentsPossible elements for a Doha decision adopting the Kyoto Protocol amendments Ratification. Legal transition to a 2 nd period Jan. 1, 2013 requires an amendment to the KP. Without enough time for countries to ratify, parties may be encouraged to hastily apply the amendment provisionally, if constitutionally possible, pending full ratification. Players. Australia, New Zealand, and Ukraine may join KP2. Japan and Russia have opted out.
Issues: KP2, Hot Air The hot air details of the 2 nd KP period – new emissions targets and carry- over of surplus carbon credits – must also be resolved in Doha. 19Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) *IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; By 2020 – compared to 1990 levels ** AAU–assigned amount unit ***CDM–Clean Development Mechanism Emissions targets. The IPCC* recommends a 25-40% reduction by 2020* for developed countries. (As in KP1, developing nations make nonbinding pledges.) The EU might jump from 20% to 30%, but not alone. To increase ambition parties may be allowed to raise targets mid-way through KP2. IPCC Carbon credits. Under KP1 countries beating their target can sell excess units (AAUs**). Doha must reconcile surplus AAUs from KP1 to KP2. Credit carry-over could flood the market and suppress ambition. No carry-over could penalize achievement. Flexibility mechanisms. Eligibility rules must be set for access to mechanisms like the CDM***. Access granted if: Joined KP1? Joined KP2? All parties to UNFCCC? CDM
Issues: LCA The Durban Platform stipulates that the LCA* be retired at COP18, assuming its work is concluded or successfully transitioned. 20Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) The LCA advances goals established by the Bali Action Plan (2007) and encompasses over 55 agenda items on financing; monitoring, reporting, and verifying; equity; intellectual property rights; and increasing ambition in line with science. Bali Action PlanBali Action Plan Doha must successfully resolve this impasse before negotiations can move on to productive discussion of the post-Kyoto treaty. The EU and US maintain that most issues have been resolved or can be transitioned to permanent UN subsidiary bodies, while the LDCs** and China argue that this would be a premature and ineffective dispatch. * LCA - Ad-Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention ** LDCs – Least Developed Countries
Issues: 2020 Treaty, Vision 21Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) Negotiators must begin the delicate task of defining how the Durban Platform vision of applicable to all will be actualized in a post-2020 treaty. The ADP* airplane has taken off… it may be too early to unbuckle our seatbelts because of turbulence ahead, but we are flying, and the journey has begun. Delegate in Bangkok, 2012 *CBDR – common but differentiated responsibilities *ADP – Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action In the new era all parties will have binding targets. The smoldering challenge is to reconcile UNFCCCs 20-year embedded principle of CBDR* with the contemporary geopolitical reality of emissions sources. By framing Convention principles as enduring but dynamic negotiators might breathe enough flexibility into the new treaty to bind all parties while recognizing different capabilities and responsibilities. (Image Credit: World Resources Institute, 2005) Creative phrasing is being explored that supports universal, though not uniform, application: dynamic differentiation, actionable differentiation, graduated levels of differentiation.
Issues: 2020 Treaty, Ambition Parties are also charged with increasing the level of ambition to close the gap between pledged cuts and targets recommended to keep warming to 2 C. 22Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) Options include: Increasing the number of countries making pledges; Increasing the number of countries making pledges; Increasing the ambition of existing pledges, and; Increasing the ambition of existing pledges, and; Recognizing supplementary actions at sub-national, national and international levels. Recognizing supplementary actions at sub-national, national and international levels. *Discrepancies in historical emissions point to a wider 2020 gap between 2 C benchmarks and aggregated national mitigation pledgeDiscrepancies in historical emissions point to a wider 2020 gap between 2 C benchmarks and aggregated national mitigation pledge Accounting and transparency must also be addressed. One study* suggests that national GHG inventories reported to the UNFCCC may understate emissions by as much as 25%. Raising the level of ambition prior to 2020 is critical to a meaningful outcome post-2020. "…the fact is that all of those efforts actually represent 60 percent of the global effort that needs to be made if we are to keep to a 2 degree (global temperature) rise. – Christiana Figueres, UNFCCC Executive Secretary, 2012 (Image Credit: UNFCCC)
Issues: Too late for 2 ? The UNFCCCs Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has called for global emissions cuts of 25%-40% by 2020 to keep global temperature rise to 2 C. 23Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) * GtCO2eq (Gigatonnes CO2 equivalents); WWF, Plugging the Gigatonne Gap.Plugging the Gigatonne Gap. ** http://dels.nas.edu/resources/static-assets/materials-based-on-reports/reports-in-brief/Stabilization-Targets-Final.pdfhttp://dels.nas.edu/resources/static-assets/materials-based-on-reports/reports-in-brief/Stabilization-Targets-Final.pdf *** http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/08/23/733041/august-23-news-former-ipcc-chair-watson-says-2c-target-is-largely-out-of-the-window/; PricewaterhouseCoopers, LLC,. Too late for two degrees? Low carbon economy index 2012; http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/may/29/carbon-emissions-nuclearpowerhttp://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/08/23/733041/august-23-news-former-ipcc-chair-watson-says-2c-target-is-largely-out-of-the-window/PricewaterhouseCoopers, LLC,. Too late for two degrees? Low carbon economy index 2012http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/may/29/carbon-emissions-nuclearpower The likelihood of limiting increase of global average temperature to no more than 2°C is increasingly remote. Even if CO 2 levels are stabilized, global temperature will continue to increase for decades.** Putting the world on a low-carbon diet means reducing the annual global emissions budget to 44 Gigatonnes (GtCO 2 eq) by 2020 to limit warming to +2 C.* To be quite candid the idea of a 2 C target is largely out of the window. – Professor Robert Watson, former IPCC chair The global economy now needs to cut carbon intensity by 5.1% every year from now to 2050. To give ourselves a more than 50% chance of avoiding 2 degrees will require a six-fold improvement in our rate of decarbonisation. – PwC, Nov. 2012 I am very worried … It is becoming extremely challenging to remain below 2 degrees. The prospect is getting bleaker. That is what the numbers say. – Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency, 2011*** The current track projects 47.9 to 53.6 Gt.*
Outcomes: KP2 as the Bridge Realistically, KP2 is shaping up to be a very rickety bridge to the proposed superhighway of a globally inclusive post-KP regime. 24Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) KP2s genetic inheritance includes flaws: too few participants; too few participants; insufficient incentives; insufficient incentives; no ability to adapt to new conditions in which the developing world will soon overtake industrialized nations in emissions. no ability to adapt to new conditions in which the developing world will soon overtake industrialized nations in emissions. Still, the Protocol is a useful experiment in prescriptive mechanisms: flexibility in domestic decision-making; flexibility in domestic decision-making; market-based policy instruments – emissions trading schemes, project-level trades among Annex I countries (Joint Implementation), and project-level offsets in developing countries used to meet obligations in Annex I countries (CDM). market-based policy instruments – emissions trading schemes, project-level trades among Annex I countries (Joint Implementation), and project-level offsets in developing countries used to meet obligations in Annex I countries (CDM).Joint ImplementationCDMJoint ImplementationCDM If the KP2 bridge doesnt collapse in Doha it will have succeeded, if only in providing passage to the new, all-inclusive regime. (Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons)
Conclusion: Politics & Nature 25Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) Hurricane Sandy, US East Coast, 2012 (Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons) As always, UN climate negotiations will be influenced by economics, politics, and nature. Lessons from KP will instruct the equity concepts and policy instruments in the post- 2020 treaty, perhaps leading to progressive targets based on per capita income, and sector-based new market mechanisms. Complementary coalitions will evolve that augment UNFCCCs multinational platform. Complementary coalitions will evolve that augment UNFCCCs multinational platform. Barack Obamas reelection may move US energy policy in a more climate-friendly direction. And, nature will unleash its own incentives through climate-related weather events of increasing frequency and intensity. Watch for ISciences post-Doha analysis of COP18 at http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html. http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html
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Final Thought 29Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) Is the mean temperature of the ground in any way influenced by the presence of the heat-absorbing gases in the atmosphere? Svante Arrhenius, Swedish scientist, 1896 It has been over 100 years since Arrhenius correctly answered his own question by calculating how changes in the levels of CO 2 in our atmosphere could alter surface temperature through the greenhouse effect.
Citation When referencing this presentation please use the following citation. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Road to Doha COP18. A slideshow; 10th installment in the series Kyoto and Beyond – the Evolution of Multilateral Agreements on Climate Change. November 16, 2012. Ann Arbor, Michigan. www.isciences.com. 30Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)