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© 2012 MIT, all rights reserved The Energy Proforma in Practice and Policy Presentation to The Energy Foundation Beijing OCTOBER 30, 2013 Dennis Frenchman.

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Presentation on theme: "© 2012 MIT, all rights reserved The Energy Proforma in Practice and Policy Presentation to The Energy Foundation Beijing OCTOBER 30, 2013 Dennis Frenchman."— Presentation transcript:

1 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved The Energy Proforma in Practice and Policy Presentation to The Energy Foundation Beijing OCTOBER 30, 2013 Dennis Frenchman Leventhal Professor of Urban Design and Planning Christopher Zegras Associate Professor of Transportation Planning The Energy Proforma in Practice and Policy Presentation to The Energy Foundation Beijing OCTOBER 30, 2013 Dennis Frenchman Leventhal Professor of Urban Design and Planning Christopher Zegras Associate Professor of Transportation Planning

2 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved PROJECT TEAM Principal Investigators Supported by EF and MIT: Supported by EF, LCEUA & MIT: Supported by MIT:

3 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved POLICY PROPOSALS & CHALLENGES IN PRACTICE ENERGY PROFORMA PROJECT DEVELOPMENTS MODELING & SIMULATION FOR IN-HOME & TRANSPORT ENERGY Simulation of Household In-home and Transport Energy Use: An integrated behavioral model for estimating energy consumption at the neighborhood scale The Energy Proforma: Measuring neighborhood energy performance for design, development, and urban policy Neighborhood Energy Performance Policy for China Implementing Energy- Efficient Neighborhood Form in China PAPERS:

4 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved INCORPORATING FEEDBACK FROM ACADEMICS & STAKEHOLDERS MIT-Tsinghua Joint Studio surveys & interviews Interviews with 20 urban planning professionals in Shenzhen and Jinan Kunming Chenggong planning delegation & EF symposium at MIT Lincoln Land Institute – Peking University RUSE conference Mayoral training program by American Planning Association, held at MIT June 2012 Jan-Dec 2012 January 2013 June 2013 July-Sept 2013

5 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved CHINA IN 2030: McKinsey Global Institute Preparing for Chinas Urban Billion March MILLION NEW URBAN RESIDENTS 30,000 NEW SUPERBLOCK DEVELOPMENTS TOWER SPRAWL: IS IT SUSTAINABLE?

6 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved ENERGY THE NEIGHBORHOOD SCALE Neighborhood = fundamental unit of urban development Evidence of measurable relationships between energy use and urban form Measurable & manageable energy performance (using Energy Proforma) Opportunity for improving energy efficiency through Urban development regulation and land policies Real estate market transformation strategies

7 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved 7 Building scale 1:50 Urban development scale 1:1000 Metro scale 1:20,000 Scales of Investigation 1. Explore relationships between energy and urban form at the neighborhood scale 2. Develop new tools for analysis, design, and policy related to energy use in neighborhoods OBJECTIVES

8 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved Urban Design Digital Energy Tool Human Activity INTEGRATED APPROACH

9 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved ENERGY PROFORMA CONCEPT

10 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved JINAN: DEMONSTRATION CITY :

11 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved Traditional Fabric Urban Grid Low-rise Slab/Enclave High-rise Superblock / URBAN FORM IN JINAN AND CHINA

12 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved ( 100) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( CBD)

13 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved TOTAL ANNUAL ENERGY USE OF NEIGHBORHOODS

14 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved INTEGRATED IN-HOME/TRANSPORT MODEL FRAMEWORK

15 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved Family Structure ( ) Single6.68% Couple23.64% Couple & kids42.11% Couple & parents4.76% Grandparents & grandchild2.92% Three generations19.97% Household Size ( ) 14.90% % % % >412.20% Annual Income (Yuan) ( ) Min4300 Max Mean93066 Std Air Conditioner ( ) 012.7% 136.7% >150.6% Vehicle Portfolio ( ) No vehicle owned30.6% E-bikes only23.9% Motorcycles5.2% Cars only24.1% Cars and other vehicles)16.2% SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND EQUIPMENT OWNERSHIP INDICATORS /

16 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved Driving is a sign of prestige 34.0% It is convenient to take buses 67.5% I like riding bicycles 53.7% Time spent on travel is a waste to me 35.6% Id like to live in bigger house 55.2% I like traveling 66.7% Plastic shopping bags should be free 50.6% High-rank officials do not take buses or ride bicycles to go out 57.9% Rich men do not take buses or ride bicycles to go out 52.4% I exercise regularly outside 62.3% I reuse things like plastic bottles or bags 69.3% ATTITUDES INDICATORS

17 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved Density Residential Density Building coverage Building mass porosity Diversity Building function mix Land use mix within 500m Street level shops Design Neighborhood size Green coverage Continuity of street façade Motorway width Southern exposure index Surface-to-volume ratio Accessibility Building footprint size Distance btw entries Parking provision Streets with sidewalks Road density Cul-de-sacs Bus Rapid Transit routes Location Distance to city center Regional accessibility NEIGHBORHOOD FORM VARIABLES

18 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved Wind Porosity NEIGHBORHOOD FORM VARIABLES Solar Exposure Site Coverage Surface-to-Volume

19 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved Density Residential Density Building coverage Building mass porosity Diversity Building function mix Land use mix within 500m Street level shops Design Neighborhood size Green coverage Continuity of street façade Motorway width Southern exposure index Surface-to-volume ratio Accessibility Building footprint size Distance btw entries Parking provision Streets with sidewalks Road density Cul-de-sacs Bus Rapid Transit routes Location Distance to city center Regional accessibility Appliance Vehicle Lifestyle Trade-off Electricity In-home Energy Trip Frequency Internal/ External Mode- Distance RELATIONSHIPS IN MODELS

20 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved Transport Residential density 20 HH/acre Street level shops 20% Function mix 10% Streets with sidewalks 20% Continuity of building façade 10% SIMULATION: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Continuity of street façade: 10% X Continuity of street façade: 80% In-home Porosity 10% Southern orientation index 10% % energy savings in year 1 % energy savings in year % 7.2% 2% 1.9% 9.5% 10.7% 7.5% 7.2% 2.0% 8.1% 0.6% 3.3% 11.4% 12.4%

21 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved SIMULATION: PREDICTION IN 20 YEARS

22 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved ENERGY PROFORMA 2.4: USED IN BEIJING STUDIO 2012 Real-time adjustments of neighborhood form measures Visual feedback on overall energy use Detailed text output

23 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved MIT-TSINGHUA 2012 JOINT STUDIO ASSESSMENT: Feedback from students and collaborators in Beijing How strong is the relationship between energy use and neighborhood form? (Before studio -> After) Assessment of Proformas impact on studio learning objectives (Before studio -> After) 1 1 Understanding of overall energy use in neighborhood: Improvement in almost all students Understanding of impacts of specific design choices: some students improved

24 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved ENERGY PROFORMA 3.0: DEVELOPMENT IN ENERGYPROFORMA.mit.edu

25 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved DEVELOPING AN INTEGRATED PLATFORM FOR URBAN STAKEHOLDERS

26 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved ENERGY PROFORMA FOR DESIGNERS: RAPID PROTOTYPING OF CLEAN ENERGY NEIGHBORHOODS

27 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved DETAILED ANALYSIS OUTPUT PER ENERGY DIMENSION

28 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved ENERGY PROFORMA FOR DESIGNERS: PERFORMANCE COMPARISON ACROSS DESIGN OPTIONS

29 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved ENERGY PROFORMA FOR DEVELOPERS: LIFECYCLE COST INCLUDING ENERGY CONSUMPTION

30 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved ENERGY PROFORMA FOR PLANNING BUREAU: REGULATORY PLAN ENERGY PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS BASED ON FEEDBACK FROM KUNMING/EF DELEGATION (JANUARY 2013)

31 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved

32 DEVELOPING AN INTEGRATED PLATFORM FOR URBAN STAKEHOLDERS: SUMMARY CURRENT FEATURES: Open access (anyone can try it) Rapid analysis of neighborhood development and regulatory plans Information and design model repository for low carbon urban design Detailed feedback on neighborhood form measures (decision support for designers) COMING SOON: Transparent back-end engine (with integrated documentation) Extensible back-end models and/or data via API Simulation with population generation and changes in neighborhood form Detailed analysis of energy/fuel sources Improved usability (better geometry input) Financial analysis (lifecycle cost)

33 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved USING THE PROFORMA TO EVALUATE POLICY PROPOSALS ACROSS 3 DOMAINS: Regulation Prescriptive Guidelines Performance Standard Municipal Finance Land Lease Modification Property Taxes Market Transformation Energy Disclosure & Labeling Carbon Emission Trading

34 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved BASIS IN CHINA CITY PILOT PROGRAMS Regulation Prescriptive Guidelines SHENZHEN etc. green building guidelines Performance Standard (Some eco-city indicators; national building EE standard) Municipal Finance Land Lease Modification TIANJIN & NANCHANG green building & infrastructure lease requirements Property Taxes CHONGQING & SHANGHAI tax pilot for public housing Market Transformation Energy Disclosure & Labeling SHANGHAI Commercial/public building database Carbon Emission Trading GUANGZHOU & CHONGQING verified emissions reductions and carbon tickets

35 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved REGULATION urban land use and planning standards of development land Code of urban Residential Areas Planning & Design Green ecological neighborhood Technical indicators Evaluation Standard for Green Buildings Green Building Guideline SZ URBANURBAN Land use urban development land per capita residential land per capita public services land per capita street and transportation land per capita green space per capita park land per capita composition of urban development land grid density Streets and transportation means of transportation width of urban roads accessbility to public transportation NEIGHBORHOODNEIGHBORHOOD green space Green space rate Plants requirements public green space per-capita green roof ratio Streets and transportation paving and roads area ratio accessbility: entraces road density bike lane width of roads other requirements on roads parking space per capita ground-floor parking space ratio Density Control residential land ratio residential land per capita total scale of population and households residential buildings insolation interval building interval building height building density building façade ratio Floor area ratio window-wall ratio building covering area Service and Infrastructure public facility space per capita public service accessibility permeable flooring ratio Recycle, energy use garbage recycling ratio &classify water recycling ratio renewable clean energy ratio origin of material INDICATORS/CRITERIA IN CURRENT CODES (from December)

36 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved ENERGY-BASED GUIDELINES

37 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved ENERGY-BASED GUIDELINES: ACCESSIBILITY CONVENTIONAL LOW-CARBON

38 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved Design Before Analysis After Prescriptive Eco-city Regulations Energy-based Guidelines Eco-city Regulations Eco-city Indicators Performance Energy Proforma Estimation Eco-city Indicators Proforma Analysis NEIGHBORHOOD ENERGY PERFORMANCE STANDARD

39 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved NEIGHBORHOOD ENERGY PERFORMANCE STANDARD

40 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved MUNICIPAL FINANCE REFORMS: LAND LEASE MODIFICATIONS AND PROPERTY TAXES TO SUPPORT CLEAN ENERGY NEIGHBORHOOD 1% of market value per annum on new residential

41 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved NEIGHBORHOOD ENERGY LABELING AND DISCLOSURE HIGH ENERGY USE AVERAGE LOW

42 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved NEIGHBORHOOD ENERGY LABELING AND DISCLOSURE Adapted from Nadkarni, Nikhil, and Harvey Michaels A New Model for Disclosing the Energy Performance of Residential Buildings.

43 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved CARBON TRADING FOR NEIGHBORHOODS Chen Demin, Tan Zhixion – Establishment of Regional Carbon Trading Market: A Case Study of Chongqing,

44 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved NEIGHBORHOOD ENERGY EFFICIENCY CERTIFICATES FOR EMISSIONS TRADING SCHEMES

45 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved INTEGRATED POLICY SUPPORT FOR CLEAN ENERGY NEIGHBORHOOD DEVELOPMENT Regulation Prescriptive Guidelines Performance Standard Neighborhood standards for eco-city programs Municipal Finance Land Lease Modification Property Taxes Government official evaluation metrics Green Loans Market Transformation Energy Disclosure & Labeling Carbon Emissions Trading Full neighborhood rating & professional accreditation Neighborhood ESCOs & cooperation with UDICs

46 © 2012 MIT, all rights reserved POLICY PROPOSALS Prescriptive codes Neighborhood Energy Performance Standard (NEPS) Municipal finance reforms (land lease & property taxes) Market strategies (energy labeling & carbon trading) ENERGY PROFORMA Rapid neighborhood energy assessment can be part of workflow for: Designers Developers Planning bureau Policymakers PRESENTATION SUMMARY MODELING & SIMULATION Integrated behavioral modeling of in- home & transport energy use Microsimulation framework for future transport use and energy consumption

47 Making the Clean Energy City in China ENERGYPROFORMA.MIT.EDU


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