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Satellite-based short-term thunderstorm forecasting toward flash flood predictions: Recent developments for Mesoamerica in the context of SERVIR Overview.

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Presentation on theme: "Satellite-based short-term thunderstorm forecasting toward flash flood predictions: Recent developments for Mesoamerica in the context of SERVIR Overview."— Presentation transcript:

1 Satellite-based short-term thunderstorm forecasting toward flash flood predictions: Recent developments for Mesoamerica in the context of SERVIR Overview of CI Nowcasting and QPE Forecasting over Mesoamerica Overview of SERVIR as applicable to CAFFG John R. Mecikalski, Assistant Professor Atmospheric Science Department University of Alabama in Huntsville Daniel Irwin, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Huntsville, Alabama and CATHALAC, City of Knowledge, Panama

2 SERVIR: An Environmental Monitoring and Decision Support System for Mesoamerica

3 Background – NASA in Central America

4 Fire Detection Land Cover/Land Use Forest Monitoring Red Tides Climate Change Short Term Weather Drought Monitoring Inter. Scientific Research Carbon Flux Hot Spot Monitoring Disaster Mitigation Urban Studies SERVIR Concept Drawing

5 CATHALAC OPERATIONAL SERVIR NODE NASA/MSFC TEST BED SERVIR NODE SPORT SST Other

6 SERVIR Test Bed Node – NASA/MSFC in 2004

7 SERVIR Lab in Panama - CATHALAC

8 SERVIR Dedication – February 3, 2005

9 Project 1: NASA/REASoN –Funding –NASA – REASON/CAN (5 Years) Objective: To Develop a Regional Monitoring and Visualization System for Decision Support for Mesoamerica for Environmental Management and Disaster Support Project 2: NASA/USAID (3 Years) –PASA with USAID – Started in October 2003 –Funding –USAID Objective 1: In-Country regional Hub, centralized repository with decentralized control, country nodes, massive archive and distribution system (MesoStor) Objective 2: Land Cover Classification/Change to assist with National Inventories/National Communications –Objective 3: Climate Change Modeling and Scenarios

10 SERVIR Web Page Fully Operational by February 1, 2005 Four Main Sections 1.Mesoamerican Data 2.Online Maps 3.Decision Support 4.Visualizations

11 1. MesoStor Regional Data System A one-stop geospatial data store Operational Feb A seamless database of vector and raster data covering all of Mesoamerica Web-based system for selection and delivery of geospatial data

12 GeoIntegrator Web Map Server (WMS) at regional node WMS at national nodes Free service to host data 2. Online Maps

13 3. Decision Support Fires –MODIS Rapid Response –Web Fire Mapper (UMD) Red Tides (Harmful Algal Blooms) Climate Change Scenarios Short Term Weather Prediction (SPORT) Land Cover and Land Use Change for Carbon Inventories Floods Other

14 Red Tides/Tehuano Winds – February 2006

15 OBJECTIVE The key task is to evaluate the relative roles on climate change for Central America of effects such as global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions and continuing land use changes. Oak Ridge National Laboratory Supercomputer Climate Change Scenarios

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17 Over the next 20 years, we see warming and drying in both the dry and wet seasons, but the impact is much greater in the wet season for both temperature and rainfall. Results suggest that human activities in this region could help trigger, prolong, or exacerbate drought. For Central America, the climate effects due to deforestation are potentially MUCH larger than those due to greenhouse-gas induced climate change. Complete deforestation leads to a significant warming of up to 4-6 deg C, and a large drop in precipitation of up to 30%. Over the next 20 years, we see warming and drying in both the dry and wet seasons, but the impact is much greater in the wet season for both temperature and rainfall. Results suggest that human activities in this region could help trigger, prolong, or exacerbate drought. For Central America, the climate effects due to deforestation are potentially MUCH larger than those due to greenhouse-gas induced climate change. Complete deforestation leads to a significant warming of up to 4-6 deg C, and a large drop in precipitation of up to 30%. Climate Change Scenarios-Results

18 Short Term Numerical Forecasting

19 Herramientas para Toma de Desiciones

20 SERVIR Disaster Products

21 Experimental Products - Nowcasting

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23 Experimental Products – Cloud Climatology 1997-Present (hourly) from GOES at 4 km

24 Visualization Tools for Decision Support NASA and COTS –NASA World Wind –Google Earth –Skyline –Space Time Toolkit Users –Decision Makers –Media –Educators –Students

25 Training Facilities Training Center in Panama

26 User Feedback & Potential for GAFFG We hope that SERVIR will continue for the long term, and for the foreseeable future, it will be a basis for much of our work in the conservation of Guatemala. Director of Guatemala Park Service I sincerely believe that this project is providing a substantial contribution to not only our work in Guatemala but all throughout Mesoamerica. Wildlife Conservation Society, Guatemala The partnership has been very fruitful for all concerned. I would rate as excellent our experience in working with NASA. World Bank Senior Biodiversity Expert Integration of CAFFG Product into SERVIR & visa versa

27 June 10, Involved Institutions Private Sector Cable & Wireless Panama EGE Fortuna S.A City of Knowledge Tierras Altas S.A. Collaborators University of South Florida The Nature Conservancy University of South Florida USGS/EROS InBio Smithsonian Others Participants University of Alabama Huntsville University of Arkansas Science Systems and Applications Inc. Oak Ridge National Laboratory Institute for the Application of Geospatial Technologies (IAGT) Universities Space Research Association Socios de SERVIR


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