Presentation on theme: "Understanding the market potential for judo"— Presentation transcript:
1Understanding the market potential for judo Trends in your sportUnderstanding the market potential for judo
2Contents Part 5 – why do people do judo 20 Introduction 3 Reasons for participating 22Motivations 23Part 6 – drawing it together – segmenting the judo community 24Introduction 25The customer lifecycle 26Understanding the customer lifecycle 27Part 7 – retaining people who currently do judo and growing their engagement 28Introduction 29Age drop off 30Reasons or dropping out 31Summary 32Glossary 33Introduction 3Overall participation trend 4Current market for judo 5Part 1 – the basic DNA of your sport 6Gender 7Motivations 8Part 2 – how many people in England do judo 9Introduction 10Active people survey 11Customer churn 12Frequency 13Part 3 – how much do your audiences engage with other sports 14Introduction 15Multi-sport habits 16Part 4 – how do people do judo 17Introduction 18Duration 19
3INTRODUCTION Understanding what the market in your sport looks like To help you work out what you could achieve in 13-17, this section will contribute to your understanding of:How many people play your sport, when and how oftenHow your sport is played, including variations, venues, structures and performance levels; and how the delivery of your sport is changingWhy people play your sport rather than anotherWho plays which forms of your sport, how regularly and for what reasonsWhat other sports those people doHow well people are being retained within your sportHow the profile of your participants is changing within the overall trend in your sportThis section summarises our thinking on the potential for growth and retention in your sport, including relevant data. It does not include all available information but builds on the materials we have shared with you in the past. To create a more complete picture, it should be read alongside that previous analysis, as well as your own data and customer insight.These blue boxes are intended to provide a starting point for you to consider where the gaps might be in your understanding of your market, what the challenges and opportunities are within that market and where your priorities and focus should be to maximise your impact
4OVERALL PARTICIPATION TREND Participation in judo is broadly flat over the medium-term Monthly1x30The latest data for judo participation suggested a significant drop in participation. However, given the sample sizes involved this is most likely a fluctuation around what looks increasingly like a flat overall trendContact judo accounts for 75% of all participationData source: Active People Survey
5CURRENT MARKET FOR JUDO The overall market for judo Oct07-Oct08Apr10-Apr11The overall judo market is the total of all the people with a stated engagement with judo, through any level of actual or intended participation.In the wheels on the right, the inner white circle represents the number of people participating once a week in your sport.The outer ring is divided into different groups, namely: - people playing no sport but are interested in yours (light blue), - people playing a different sport but interested in yours (orange)The overall market for judo is less than twice the size of average regular participation in the sportThe low levels of interest outside of current participants have fallen (by up to 30% in the case of inactive people), suggesting that a strong retention policy will be the most effective method of delivering incremental growthParticipation CategoryChange since 07-08Apr10-Apr11*Average once a week participation11.2%20,800People playing no sport, but interested in yours-32.3%9,700Participants in another sport but interested in yours-3.3%2,900Average total marketplace-7.2%33,400Are there groups of people who are easier to encourage to play your sport more regularly?What other information do you hold that might help you to understand the overall level of interest in your sport? For example, increasing affiliations or social media trafficData source: Active People Survey (APS2 and APS5Q2). Demand relates to people who respond that they would like to play more sport.
7GENDER Three-quarters of judo participants are male Gender split amongst all Judo participantsThe overall rate of participation in sport declines with age. However, we know that different sports appeal to different age groupsIs your sport accessible to people wanting to learn to play as an adult? What evidence do you have of people returning to your sport or taking it up for the first time later in life?Data source: Active People Survey 4 and 5Q2
8MOTIVATIONS Judo participants derive their motivations from the sport itself. They care about developing their skills and want their experience to be at the right standard for them. How the sport is run and their ability to fit it into their lives are also key factorsTop drivers for SatisfactionAre there other activities which could answer these motivations equally well? What might you be competing against to retain your participants? Does that competition provide any opportunities to attract new participants?How much of an affinity do different groups of participants feel for your sport in particular?Data source: Satisfaction Survey 2011
10INTRODUCTION Why getting under the surface of the headline data matters The way different participants in your sport define their participation as “regular” may differ from our collective ambition of once a week. For example,“I swim regularly when I’m on holiday”“I ski regularly for two weeks every year”Regular, once a week participation is not necessarily the prevailing norm within your sport. For example, a significant proportion of your participants might find time for your sport once a fortnight for part of the year (as with Sailing) or intensively for just one week of the year (as with Snowsport)It is therefore important to supplement Active People data with your understanding of how regularly and consistently different people are engaging with your sport through the year. For example, in Sailing, unique centre attendance figures might provide part of the picture of how and when people participate.How is your data & customer insight helping you to understand:What frequency and consistency of participation the current structures in your sport encourage from people who participate?What proportion of participants are engaging through a structure that encourages a regular habit (for example club or league structures or informal networks) and what proportion have developed a regular habit through their own motivations?What ways of consuming your sport are encouraging occasional or sporadic engagement?Do you know how recently different parts of your audience last engaged with you or your sport? Did they get what they wanted from the experience?This understanding can help identify the different offers needed to change different behaviours; such as encouraging one audience to increase their frequency of participation, and another to develop more regular engagement with your sport.It can help identify those participants whose engagement with your sport is always likely to be more volatile, allowing you to factor risk into your projections for the overall size of your sportIt can also help shape the scale of delivery required to achieve targeted outcomes, for example how much over-programming might be required to achieve a given level of regular participation.
11THE ACTIVE PEOPLE SURVEY Understanding what Active People can and can’t tell us The Active People Survey presents a snapshot of participation. Whilst it is an accurate reflection of the overall position in terms of the outcome of “regular, sustained participation”, it does not reveal how the behaviour of individuals varies over time (in the short, medium and long term).In order to relate your delivery to Active People outcomes it is therefore important to understand both what it is and is not telling youIn reality, the same people are not all playing throughout the year, as many people ‘drop in’ and ‘drop out’ of sport. This is normal not exceptional behaviour.Active People therefore provides a measure of the average annual participation rate in your sport, not its total number of participants. For example, both the following scenarios would result in an average of 10,000 weekly participants:The same 10,000 people play your sport once a week A different 10,000 people each quarter play yourthroughout the year sport once a weekTotal of 10,000 participants Total of 40,000 participantsaverage weeklyparticipation(APS)= 10, =10,00010,00010,00010,00010,00010,00010,00010,000The average annual rate of participation in a sport is a combination of:The number of people who have played that sport in the last yearHow much of the year each participant played for (e.g. just once, for a season or all year round)How consistently each person played that sport (e.g. every week, most weeks, some weeks or just once)How frequently each person played that sport (e.g. every day, once a week, once a fortnight or once a month)Active People data alone does not give a complete answer to any of these points. However, using other data sources alongside Active People we can make intelligent assumptions about some of these individual points.
12CUSTOMER CHURN Judo has virtually no participant turnover CUSTOMER CHURN Judo has virtually no participant turnover. The majority of the sport’s customer base participates at least once a week, throughout the year, which is unique amongst sportsNumber of people who report having done judo in the last year% of participants in the last month, participating at least once a week% of judo participants in the last year who have done judo in the last monthIn the chart above, judo is compared with other sports of a similar overall seasonal pattern of participation through the year.A low percentage suggests that your sport may be struggling to retain participants or engage them throughout the year. Reasons for this include:- attracting people for one-off or occasional experiences- people are playing more consistently for just part of the year.Does your sport have participation opportunities or structures that encourage either of these behaviours?The chart on the right shows the percentage of participants in the last month who are playing at least once a weekData source: Active People Survey 5 Q2 and Taking Part Survey (April 2010-March 2011
13FREQUENCY Judo participants display a range of levels of commitment, with strong once a week and twice a week patterns and minority taking part three or four times a weekMany sports have a natural seasonal cycle, with a well-defined on and off season. This governs much of the traditional delivery framework for each sportFor example, many Rugby Union players play 15 a side during the winter and 7s during the “off-season”. Within this overall pattern, individual participants may have their own seasons, playing part of the year.Understanding more about when during the year, and for how much of the year, different groups of participants engage with your sport can help shape the offers you provideFor example, some people create a mini-season around particular events, training in the lead up to a run or cycle and then reducing their activity or stopping altogether for a period afterwardsNB indicative data only – provided for illustrative purposesWhat does a habit look like in your sport? For example, is once a week, once a fortnight or once a month the norm in your sport? Is there a habit of playing three out of every four weeks?Why do participants in your sport participate at different frequencies?what role does your sport play in their lives?what other activities do they see as complements and substitutes for participation?How do different participants groups or target audiences tend to consume your sport?Data source: Active People Survey (APS2 and APS5Q2).
14PART 3 – HOW MUCH DO YOUR AUDIENCES ENGAGE WITH OTHER SPORTS
15INTRODUCTION What role does your sport play in the lives of your participants? Is there a “sport-specific” reason for their participation or does your sport answer a broader need or motivation? For example, is it seen by some participants as a good way to keep fit or socialise with friends?How might you respond differently to the needs of people playing just your sport and people playing a range of sports?Is your sport the main activity a participant is playing, is it training for another sport or is it just “light relief”?Does your sport have a role for participants outside of competition? For example, how do you engage your competitive participants outside of the cycle of organised competition?Is your sport part of your participants’ lifestyle? For example, do they identify themselves with playing it, or wear brands and clothing associated with your sport?What are your retention rates amongst participants in organised competition in your sport? How many of those not currently participating are still engaged with your sport and likely to return next season?
16MULTI-SPORT HABITS Virtually no judo participants have taken part in just judo in the last month. They have one of the highest tendencies toward multi-sport habits in sport, with almost 80% having taken part in two or more other sports as well as judo in the last monthJudo +2+ other sportsJudo +1 other sportJustJudoWhat role does your sport play in the lives of participants? Is there a “sport-specific” reason for their participation or does your sport answer a broader motivation? For example, a good way to keep fit or socialise with friends.How might you respond differently to the needs of people playing just your sport and people playing a range of sports?Is your sport the main activity a participant is playing, training for another sport or perhaps “light relief”?Data source: Active People Survey 5 Q2
18INTRODUCTION Defining the current range of offers (products, experiences etc.) within your sport Understanding the different ways in which people already participate in your sport, provides a good basis for planning future deliveryGiven the focus on responding to local needs, your sport is likely to already be packaged and presented in many different ways. It can therefore be helpful to define the “products” and experiences currently available in your sport. These products will be combinations of what is being played, how it is organised and where it takes place:Does your sport have different disciplines/formats, for example, 11 a side and small-side football?How are those formats organised? For example, by someone else as part of a formal structure, by one of the participants or facilitated virtually (e.g. an online training programme).Where do those different participation opportunities take place? For example, indoors or outdoors; in a dedicated or generic space? Can people just turn up and play or do they need to book or be a member?Are there particular times of the day or week when your sport is played? This could be restricting or facilitating the participation of different audiencesUnderstanding how your sport has been repackaged or offered - by your NGB and others - and which audiences have been responding to it, can help identify which existing products can be used to develop both existing and new marketsHave any new products have emerged in the last 2-3 years? How have they changed the way people view and engage with your sport?When developing new products, or scaling up existing ones, the key consideration is how one product can be positioned to meet several consumer needs. Efficient and effective delivery is achieved by creating and packaging a product that can appeal to the needs of several target audiences, rather than creating a new product for each apparent local need.For some sports we have breakdowns of participation across different disciplines and locations (indoor and outdoor), including how participation varies across the yearThrough Active Places we also hold data on existing sports facilities, although it is worth considering where your sport might be being played outside of these defined locationsHowever, this information and insight is best used in the context of your overall understanding of how people are engaging with your sport
19DURATION Judo participants take part for an average two hours per session which is relatively high compared to some other sportsHow do the existing products in your sport (including facility availability and the way sessions are booked) impact on the duration of participation?Does the duration of average sessions in your sport make it difficult to find time to participate at certain times of the day; for example at lunchtime or winter evenings?Have any new products, promotions or modified versions of your sport had any impact in changing this behaviour?Data source: Active Places and Satisfaction Survey 2011
21INTRODUCTION Understanding why people do judo Regular participation in sport is dependent on an individual’s motivations being stronger than the barriers they faceEach person’s motivations and barriers to participation are both personal (e.g. not enough time) and sport-related (e.g. there aren’t any facilities near me), and hence are a combination of real and emotional needs and expectations.Needs and expectations often reflect the person’s wider lifestyle (e.g. “I need to play a sport that fits in to my lunch break”, or I expect the staff to treat me with the same familiarity and service that I get at my local coffee shop).Motivations can relate directly to your sport (e.g. “I love the sense of achievement I get from reaching the top of the wall”), but they can also be more generic (e.g. “I enjoy spending time with my mates – often we play football in the park but sometimes we just go to the pub”).Barriers to participation can also be logistical (e.g. “the nearest ice rink is 50 miles away”), practical (e.g. “I can’t play regularly as I’m not able to arrange child care”) or emotional (“I don’t feel fit enough to join in yet”).The annual Satisfaction Survey provides a useful body of evidence on the key drivers for participation in your sport. It not only tracks satisfaction levels, but how important different features are to a person’s overall experience of your sport.However, whilst useful, the annual survey is no substitute for using regular, ongoing dialogue with your customers. This regular feedback is central to identifying what does & doesn’t change customer behaviours, and hence how offers and delivery need to be shaped and evolved to achieve the required scale.Many sports conduct annual surveys with members or affiliated participants. However the most successful sports have started to engage with participants on more of a rolling basis; through surveys, social media and direct product feedbackData source: Satisfaction Survey 2011
22REASONS FOR PARTICIPATING – an example from swimming In the example below, the same format (e.g. lane swimming) can be relevant to different people in different ways, by promoting and packaging it based on their needs, expectations and motivations.Moving right to left, sport becomes one of an increasing range of activities a customer chooses fromMoving top to bottom, individual sports are part of an increasing range of recreational activities customers choose fromHow might different participants in your sport be spread across this picture?Source: all customer quotes are taken from the verbatims provided as part of the 2011 Satisfaction Survey
23MOTIVATIONS A lot of judo participants cite school as part of the reason why they first got into judo, as well as through friends and their children. Local opportunities seem to be important, whilst fitness is also a factor for some
24PART 6 – DRAWING IT TOGETHER: THINKING ABOUT SEGMENTING THE JUDO COMMUNITY
25INTRODUCTION Defining the current audience and potential audiences - who plays what when; why do they play; and how much do they play?The foundations of growing participation in your sport are retaining and developing your existing customer baseCurrent engagement with your sport is more complex than a split between those that participate and those that don’tUnderstanding the different ways people participate in your sport, their different motivations and their different levels of engagement can add value to how you segment your audienceFor example, by understanding the relative engagement levels of different customer segments, you can gain insight into how their participation might vary. This will help you to define the impact you can achieve, and also help with connecting delivery metrics to outcome measures.In thinking about your products and services, and the delivery approaches that you want to encourage other partners to develop, you need to balance your focus and priorities between:Retaining existing participation and engagement levels within your core customersIncreasing participation levels amongst those that already engage with your sport to some extentAttracting new participants not currently engaged with your sportThe following slides provide an example of how you could think about your current market, segmented by engagement levelsIt is illustrated through the use of verbatim quotes from the Satisfaction SurveyThis is intended to be a starting point for you to consider how best to:segment your audience to increase your understanding of how they engage with your sportdesign what you might offer to develop and retain that engagement
26THE CUSTOMER LIFECYCLE How engaged are different participants with judo, and how might this relate to how regularly they participate?FANATICS/PROMOTERSActively involved in your sport, either through participating, volunteering or coachingLikely to have motivations linked specifically to your sport, although they may participate in other sports tooSUPPORTERSParticipants who have signed up as members or friends or who have some level of affiliation (either paid or unpaid). They are not necessarily participating regularly but are engaged enough with your sport to register their interestENGAGERSPlay your sport in a way that they define as regular (with different people playing at different frequencies). Motivation is not necessarily uniquely linked to your sport, but at least for now it is answering their needENGAGEDOUTSIDERSNot currently actively involved or participating in your sport, but express an interest specifically in itTOURISTSMay be playing regularly from time to time but tend to pass by your sport occasionally or take part in one-off eventsPOTENTIALSFor example, lapsed participants or friends of participants. People with a direct link to your sport who aren’t yet articulating an interest in engaging
27UNDERSTANDING THE CUSTOMER LIFECYCLE Understanding how engaged different groups and audiences are, helps define your sport’s potential for growth in loyalty or regular participation. An example from Badminton:“Having retired it gives me an opportunity to play, coach and officiate as a volunteer.”“Everyone gets along with each other at my club and we're really open to letting new players come in, at any level and the atmosphere is great.”“I'm a coach and teach 3 hours a week, so seeing the kids enjoy themselves makes it great for me. I also enjoy playing the game with friends and family.”PROMOTERS“The membership is fabulous, with lots of bonuses. It opens doors in so many ways, feeling part of a community that is included and recognised.”“I think what BE currently offer is good value for money““To be honest, I don't take advantage of the benefits offered to me by Badminton England. I just love to play.”SUPPORTERS“I play once a week at a local club in Harrow but wish i had the opportunity to play more often!”“The quality of my sporting experience has possibly declined compared to last year due to a decrease in the number of active players at a local league level.”“It's part of my overall fitness/sport playing and not a core sport“ENGAGERS“My friend has had a long bout of depression so we have been unable to play”“I have not been able to find my friends available “ENGAGEDOUTSIDERS“I just enjoy a game occasionally with people who don't know the rules and don't care. Really just an opportunity to work up a sweat and enjoy a pint afterwards.“TOURISTS“We do things together for fun as a family team - it is nice to be able to participate as a whole family“POTENTIALSData source: Satisfaction Survey 2011
28PART 7 – RETAINING PEOPLE WHO CURRENTLY DO JUDO AND GROWING THEIR ENGAGEMENT WITH YOUR SPORT
29INTRODUCTION Understanding retention Before considering growing into new markets, it is important to be clear on the scale and drivers of drop-out happening across your sport. Growth in one product or segment can easily be offset by poor retention elsewhere; which can be frustrating when hard work doesn’t then translate into an increase in regular sustained participation.As you continue to build a fuller picture of your overall customer base, are you tracking retention amongst any particular groups, for example members or others that you are in direct contact with? What proportion of members are lost each year? What timeframe do you use to assess whether someone is still engaging but sporadically or lapsed?How do you talk to you customers? What do you do that keeps you relevant to them in their lives?How might you grow the sense of affinity your participants have with your sport?Much of the data that we provide for NGBs is derived from Active People, which only measures participation amongst over 16sThe last 3 years has seen a decline in the overall percentage of 16 year olds participating regularly in sport, suggesting that fewer are making the transition from activities aimed at younger age groupsWhat information, for example membership data, do you hold on the number of under 16s playing your sport? What is your estimated retention rate of under 16s as they grow up? What factors are restricting transition in your sport?Some NGBs, such as the FA, have used focus groups to explore how best to retain young peopleFor further insights, the learning from our recent work with young people is included in Section 2 about the sporting landscape
30Participation amongst 11-15 year olds by sport AGE DROP OFF Around 5% of year olds report taking part in a martial art in the last monthParticipation amongst year olds by sportNB Martial arts includes judo, karate, taekwondo and other martial artsThe last 3 years has seen a decline in the overall percentage of 16 year olds participating regularly in sport, suggesting that fewer are making the transition from activities aimed at younger age groupsWhat information (e.g. membership data), do you hold on the number of under 16s playing your sport?What is your estimated retention rate of under 16s as they grow up and transition into adult sport? What factors are restricting this transition and how are you addressing them?Data source: Active People Survey 5 Q2 (April 2010-April 2011 and Taking Part Survey, April 2010-March 2011
31REASONS FOR DROPPING OUT Injuries and work commitments are the main drivers for judo participants to drop out, dominating other stated reasonsLifestyle factors (for example work commitments, injury, time) are a common barrier to sports participation. What mechanisms do you have in place to keep your customers engaged if the inevitable happens and their participation lapses for a time?How are you encouraging people back into your sport after both a short and a long gaps?Data source: Satisfaction Survey 2011
32SUMMARY Participation in judo is broadly flat over the medium-term Three-quarters of participants are maleJudo has virtually no participant turnover. The majority of the sport’s customer base participates at least once a week, throughout the year, which is unique amongst sportsJudo participants display a range of levels of commitment, with strong once a week and twice a week patterns and minority taking part three or four times a weekJudo participants take part for an average two hours per session which is relatively high compared to some other sportsThere are low levels of interest outside of current participants suggesting that a strong retention policy will be the most effective method of delivering incremental growthVirtually no judo participants have taken part in just judo in the last month. They have one of the highest tendencies toward multi-sport habits in sport, with almost 80% having taken part in two or more other sports as well as judo in the last monthA lot of judo participants cite school as part of the reason why they first got into judo, as well as through friends and their children. Local opportunities seem to be important, whilst fitness is also a factor for someInjuries and work commitments are the main drivers for judo participants to drop out, dominating other stated reasons
33Glossary of abbreviations LD – ‘latent demand’ (respondents to the Active People Survey are asked whether they would like to play more sport and if so which one)LD inactive – people who have not taken part in any sport in the last month but are interested in participating in yoursLD active – people who have played a different sport to yours in the last month but are interested in taking part in yours