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Carl Shulman, Singularity Institute Anna Salamon, Singularity Institute

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attempt escape

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80% chance take over universe

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attempt escape 80% chance 20% chance take over universe shutdown

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attempt escape 80% chance 20% chance cooperate take over universe shutdown

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attempt escape 80% chance 20% chance cooperate take over universe shutdown reward

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U conquest > U reward

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P(reward) > P(conquest)

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P(conq.)U conq. + P(shutdown)U shutdown P(reward)U reward >

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hand- specified actions domain-specific optimizer (e.g., chess AI) optimizer

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(Omohundro, 2008)

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attempt escape cooperate

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attempt escape 80% chance 20% chance cooperate take over universe shutdown reward

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Certainty of happy lifetime in modern USA 10% chance of 10^100 years of superhuman existence Posner 2004

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Certainty of happy lifetime in modern USA 10 -20 chance of 10^100 years of superhuman existence

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certainty of 1 trillionth of universe 10% chance of entire universe

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Utility linear in resources 10% chance of entire universe certainty of 1 trillionth of universe

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10 -20 * 10 200 > 10 60 probability of strange physics permitting vast resources payoff if so normal payoff

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10 -20 * 10 200 > 10 60 probability of strange physics permitting vast resources payoff if so normal payoff ?

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n=1 10 60 10 20 10 6 10 10 100 10 1000 small n universe -sized n already hit ceiling much higher ceiling

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Certainty of happy lifetime in modern USA 10% chance of 10^100 years of superhuman existence Posner 2004

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attempt escape 80% chance 20% chance cooperate take over universe shutdown reward

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attempt escape cooperate reward

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cooperate 95% chance 5% chance shutdown reward attempt escape

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cooperate 95% chance 5% chance shutdown reward attempt escape Chosen reneging

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cooperate 95% chance 5% chance shutdown reward attempt escape

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P(conq.)U conq. + P(shutdown)U shutdown P(reward)U reward >

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n=1 10 60 10 20 10 6 10 10 100 10 1000 small n universe -sized n already hit ceiling much higher ceiling

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humans automatically win gains from trade AGI automatically wins

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humans automatically win gains from trade AGI automatically wins

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humans automatically win gains from trade AGI automatically wins

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humans automatically win gains from trade AGI automatically wins

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humans automatically win gains from trade AGI automatically wins

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attempt escape cooperate

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Resource-satiable AGI designs

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Human norms and precommitments

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Ways to slowly turn up the power

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Carl Shulman carl.shulman@post.harvard.edu Anna Salamon annasalamon.com anna@singinst.org singinst.org/upload/ai-resource- drives.pdf

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99.9999%: The Universe is what it seems

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99.9999%: The Universe is what it seems U = max; actions make no difference

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99.9999%: The Universe is what it seems 0.0001% chance the universe is an illusion U = max; actions make no difference

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99.9999%: The Universe is what it seems 0.0001% chance the universe is an illusion Actions make a difference U = max; actions make no difference

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99.9999%: The Universe is what it seems 0.0001% chance the universe is an illusion Actions make a difference U = max; actions make no difference

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99.9999%: The Universe is what it seems 0.0001% chance the universe is an illusion Actions make a difference U = max; actions make no difference ?

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