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Futures Research Methods Version 2.0 current status Task: Spanish methods APER Actor Perceptions Analysis Eduardo Balbi Stake Scenario Technique Mojica.

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Presentation on theme: "Futures Research Methods Version 2.0 current status Task: Spanish methods APER Actor Perceptions Analysis Eduardo Balbi Stake Scenario Technique Mojica."— Presentation transcript:

1 Futures Research Methods Version 2.0 current status Task: Spanish methods APER Actor Perceptions Analysis Eduardo Balbi Stake Scenario Technique Mojica CEAR Cause Effect Analysis, and Replacement of trends, to design trend scenarios and to detect critical points or risk points Eduardo Balbi MASA and SMART Status and comments: Find Spanish Peer reviewers Task: Review all 18 chapters in Version 1.0 and re-write as necessary Status and comments: Jerry Glenn review all and assign some

2 FRM-Version 2.0 current status (cont.) Technique : Tool Box (MIMAC, etc.) Author : Michel Godet Status and comments : To be downloaded (English/French) Technique : S&T Road Mapping 1 & 2 Author: Ted Gordon (1) and Olivier Da Costa (2) Status and comments: Peer reviews - out to EC - IPTS maybe additional piece by Olivier Da Costa (1) ECs Institute for Prospective Technological Studies - working document (2)

3 Technique : Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR) Author: Geoff Coyle/Jerry Glenn Status and comments: Draft peer reviewed JG add FAR from SRI FRM-Version 2.0 current status (cont.) Technique : Text Mining Author: Alan Porter Status and comments: Draft peer reviewed

4 Technique : Non linear Techniques: Chaos Modeling Author: Ted Gordon Status and comments: To be peer reviewed FRM-Version 2.0 current status (cont.) Technique : Scenarios Author: Jerry Glenn Status and comments: Updated, draft not yet complete

5 FRM-Version 2.0 current status (cont.) Technique: Scenario Software for altering scenario Author: Ted Gordon Status and comments: draft in from Ted, not yet peer reviewed - Venezuelan software Technique : SOFI Author: Ted Gordon and Jerry Glenn Status and comments: Text in; not yet peer reviewed

6 FRM-Version 2.0 current status (cont.) Technique : Combined Impact Analysis Author: Felix Nolte and Mikael Raaterova Status and comments: Negative reviews, if authors respond to all, then may be another peer review round Technique : The Multiple Perspective Author: Hal Linstone Status and comments: Text in, check format and then to peer review

7 FRM-Version 2.0 current status (cont.) Technique : Environmental Scanning Author: Peter Bishop (?) Status and comments: Consider Starlight, SPIRE, Technology Opportunities Analysis (TOA),others Technique : Agent Modeling Author: Ted Gordon Status and comments: writing and will include demo software

8 FRM-Version 2.0 current status (cont.) Technique : Framework Forecasting Author: Peter Bishop Status and comments: He offered, we said sure, put it is in the outline format (his 10/00 draft is on my laptop) Technique : Uncertainty and decision making Author: Hugh Courtney Status and comments: ref. Nancy Donovan GAO discussion stage


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