1. Impact of Drought of 2012 on Crop Yields
Ames Town and Country Kiwanis
Ames, Iowa
Oct. 20, 2012
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1 1

3. Crop Conditions
Source: USDA-NASS

4. Price Ratios Since May 1

5. Projected Corn Yields Yields (bu/acre) 2011 2012 % Change
United States
147.2
122
-17%
Iowa
172
140
-19%
Illinois
157 98
-38%
Nebraska
160
142
-11%
Minnesota
156
168 8%
Indiana
146
100
-32%
South Dakota
132 94
-29%
Wisconsin
127
Ohio
158
123
-22%
Kansas
107 91
-15%
Missouri
114 75
-34%

6. Projected Soybean Yields
Yields (bu/acre)
2011
2012
% Change
United States
41.9
37.8
-10%
Iowa
51.5 43
-17%
Illinois
47.5 39
-18%
Minnesota
10%
Nebraska 54 41
-24%
Indiana
45.5
Ohio 48
Missouri
36.5 30
South Dakota 37 28
Arkansas
38.5 1%
North Dakota 29 34
17%

7. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.0
86.4
88.2
91.9
96.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
153.9
164.7
152.8
147.2
122.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,092
13,092
12,447
12,358
10,706
Beg. Stocks
1,624
1,673
1,708
1,128
988
Imports 14 8 28 75
Total Supply
13,729
14,774
14,182
13,514
11,769
Feed & Residual
5,182
5,125
4,793
4,562
4,150
Ethanol
3,709
4,591
5,021
5,000
4,500
Food, Seed, & Other
1,316
1,370
1,407
1,421
1,350
Exports
1,849
1,980
1,835
1,543
1,150
Total Use
12,056
13,066
13,055
12,526
11,150
Ending Stocks
619
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.06
3.55
5.18
6.22
7.80
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.7
77.5
77.4
75.0
77.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
39.7
44.0
43.5
41.9
37.8
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,967
3,359
3,329
3,094
2,860
Beg. Stocks
205
138
151
215
169
Imports 13 15 14 16 20
Total Supply
3,185
3,512
3,495
3,325
3,050
Crush
1,662
1,752
1,648
1,703
1,540
Seed & Residual
106
110
130 92
115
Exports
1,279
1,499
1,501
1,360
1,265
Total Use
3,047
3,361
3,280
3,155
2,920
Ending Stocks
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.97
9.59
11.30
12.50
15.25
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

10. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: