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ANATOMY # 1MSTS/2004 ANATOMY OF SAMPLING STUDIES OF ECOLOGICAL RESPONSES THROUGH TIME {on the web at

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1 ANATOMY # 1MSTS/2004 ANATOMY OF SAMPLING STUDIES OF ECOLOGICAL RESPONSES THROUGH TIME {on the web at http://www.oregonstate.edu/instruct/st571/urquhart/anatomy/index.htm} by N. Scott Urquhart Oregon State University, USA and Anthony R. Olsen Anthony R. Olsen US EPA

2 ANATOMY # 2MSTS/2004 STARMAP FUNDING Space-Time Aquatic Resources Modeling and Analysis Program The work reported here today was developed under the STAR Research Assistance Agreement CR-829095 awarded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to Colorado State University. This presentation has not been formally reviewed by EPA. The views expressed here are solely those of presenters and STARMAP, the Program they represent. EPA does not endorse any products or commercial services mentioned in these presentation. This research is funded by U.S.EPA – Science To Achieve Results (STAR) Program Cooperative Agreement # CR - 829095

3 ANATOMY # 3MSTS/2004 THE AUTHORS N. SCOTT URQUHART N. SCOTT URQUHART Trained in Statistics Trained in Statistics About 40 Years of Experience in Applications About 40 Years of Experience in Applications Worked With Ecologists in Desert, Arctic, Pacific Northwest Worked With Ecologists in Desert, Arctic, Pacific Northwest Many Surveys with Rural Sociologists and Ag Economists Many Surveys with Rural Sociologists and Ag Economists Including 10 years with EPAs Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) Including 10 years with EPAs Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) ACADEMIC And AGENCY; PLANT And ANIMAL ACADEMIC And AGENCY; PLANT And ANIMAL ANTHONY (Tony) R. OLSEN ANTHONY (Tony) R. OLSEN Trained in Statistics Trained in Statistics 30+ Years of Experience in Private and Government Applications 30+ Years of Experience in Private and Government Applications Worked With Atmospheric Modelers And Air Pollution Field Scientists Worked With Atmospheric Modelers And Air Pollution Field Scientists Survey Experience With Health Professionals And Large-scale National Resource Monitoring Survey Experience With Health Professionals And Large-scale National Resource Monitoring Now Statistical Lead with EPAs EMAP Now Statistical Lead with EPAs EMAP

4 ANATOMY # 4MSTS/2004 EVOLUTION OF THE ANATOMY The first step in the development of the ANATOMY focused on experimental design situations. The first step in the development of the ANATOMY focused on experimental design situations. Served as the structure for several part-semester courses in advanced statistical methods at New Mexico State University Served as the structure for several part-semester courses in advanced statistical methods at New Mexico State University Eventually published as Eventually published as Urquhart, N. S. (1981). Anatomy of a study. HortScience 16:621-627. Experience with EMAP led to its expansion to surveys

5 ANATOMY # 5MSTS/2004 TODAYS CONTEXT for SURVEYS EMAP-type Situations EMAP = US EPAS Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program EMAP-type Situations EMAP = US EPAS Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program Estimate Status, Changes... In Indicators Estimate Status, Changes... In Indicators Estimate Status, Changes,... In Extent Estimate Status, Changes,... In Extent Describe Associations... Describe Associations...

6 ANATOMY # 6MSTS/2004 17.6% ± 10% 6.8% ± 6% 43.8% ± 12% 31.8% ± 8% (N=258) Source: EMAP Northeast Lakes Study Objective #1: Estimate the status, changes and trends in selected indicators of the condition of our Nation's ecological resources on a regional scale with known confidence Hypereutrophic Eutrophic Mesotrophic Oligotrophic on a regional scale with known confidence Hypereutrophic Eutrophic Mesotrophic Oligotrophic

7 ANATOMY # 7MSTS/2004 NortheastAdirNEUC/L/P 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 Objective #2: Estimate the status, changes and trends in the extent and geographic coverage of our Nation's ecological resources on a regional scale with known confidence North east Adir NEU C/L/P Est. Lake # SE Est. Area SE 11,455 1,506 5,689 4,280 1,251 285 1,206 1,048 4,030 1,082 2,099 850 814 395 758 254 Adir = Adirondacks; NEU = New England Uplands; C/L/P = Coast & Lake Plains Source: EMAP Northeast Lakes Study

8 ANATOMY # 8MSTS/2004 Objective #3: Describe associations between indicators of anthropogenic stress and indicators of condition Proportion of Stream Length (Insufficient Data) Good Fair Poor Fish Index of Biotic Integrity Relative Ranking of Stressors Source: EMAP Mid-Atlantic Highlands Assessment

9 ANATOMY # 9MSTS/2004 WHO MUST COMMUNICATE Ecologists & Other Biologists Ecologists & Other Biologists Statisticians Statisticians Geographers Geographers Geographic Information Specialists (GIS) Geographic Information Specialists (GIS) Information Managers Information Managers Quality Assurance Personnel Quality Assurance Personnel Managers, At Various Levels Managers, At Various Levels

10 ANATOMY # 10MSTS/2004 SAMPLING A WORD OF MANY MEANINGS A WORD OF MANY MEANINGS Statisticians Often Associate It With Survey Sampling Statisticians Often Associate It With Survey Sampling An Ecologist May Associate It with the Selection of Local Sites or Material An Ecologist May Associate It with the Selection of Local Sites or Material A Laboratory Scientist May Associate It With the Selection Of Material to be Analyzed from Material Supplied A Laboratory Scientist May Associate It With the Selection Of Material to be Analyzed from Material Supplied Common General Meaning, Varied Specific Meanings Common General Meaning, Varied Specific Meanings

11 ANATOMY # 11MSTS/2004 THE SPECIAL NEED Communication Demands a Distinction Between Communication Demands a Distinction Between The Local Process of Evaluating a Response, and The Local Process of Evaluating a Response, and The Statistical Selection of a Sampling Unit, The Statistical Selection of a Sampling Unit, For example, For example, A LAKE A LAKE A POINT ON A STEAM A POINT ON A STEAM

12 ANATOMY # 12MSTS/2004 THE SPECIAL NEED - continued The Terms The Terms Response Design Response Design Sampling Design or Survey Design Sampling Design or Survey Design Can Be Used to Make this Distinction Can Be Used to Make this Distinction But a Complex Ecological Survey Clearly Has More Parts Than These! But a Complex Ecological Survey Clearly Has More Parts Than These!

13 ANATOMY # 13MSTS/2004 BASIC ROLES Survey Design Tells Us Where to Go to Collect Sample Information or Material Survey Design Tells Us Where to Go to Collect Sample Information or Material Response Design Tells Us What to Do Once We Get There Response Design Tells Us What to Do Once We Get There But These Two Components Exist in a Broader Context But These Two Components Exist in a Broader Context

14 ANATOMY # 14MSTS/2004 AN IMPORTANT DISTINCTION Monitoring Strategy Monitoring Strategy Conceptual Conceptual Impacted by Objectives Impacted by Objectives Addressable Without Regard to the Inference Strategy Addressable Without Regard to the Inference Strategy Inference Strategy Inference Strategy

15 ANATOMY # 15MSTS/2004 AN IMPORTANT DISTINCTION - continued Monitoring Strategy Monitoring Strategy.................... Inference Strategy Inference Strategy Places to Evaluate the Response – the WHERE Places to Evaluate the Response – the WHERE Relation Between Points Evaluated and the Population Relation Between Points Evaluated and the Population IE, the Basis for Inference IE, the Basis for Inference

16 ANATOMY # 16MSTS/2004 SAMPLING STUDIES OF ECOLOGICAL RESPONSES THROUGH TIME HAVE Monitoring Strategy Monitoring Strategy Universe Model Universe Model Statistical Population Statistical Population Domain Design Domain Design Response Design Response Design Inference Strategy Inference Strategy Survey Design Survey Design Temporal Design Temporal Design Quality Assurance Design Quality Assurance Design These components exist regardless of the inference strategy These components exist for any monitoring strategy

17 ANATOMY # 17MSTS/2004 SAMPLING STUDIES OF ECOLOGICAL RESPONSES THROUGH TIME HAVE MONITORING STRATEGY MONITORING STRATEGY Universe Model Universe Model Statistical Population Statistical Population Domain Design Domain Design Response Design Response Design INFERENCE STRATEGY INFERENCE STRATEGY Survey Design Survey Design Temporal Design Temporal Design Quality Assurance Design Quality Assurance Design

18 ANATOMY # 18MSTS/2004 The MONITORING STRATEGY The MONITORING STRATEGY MUST RESPOND TO The MONITORING STRATEGY MUST RESPOND TO Monitoring Objectives Monitoring Objectives State of Knowledge in Ecological Sciences State of Knowledge in Ecological Sciences Characteristics of Ecological Resource(s) of Interest Characteristics of Ecological Resource(s) of Interest EXPECTED FUNDING Compared To COSTS EXPECTED FUNDING Compared To COSTS Operational Constraints Operational Constraints

19 ANATOMY # 19MSTS/2004 MONITORING STRATEGY MONITORING STRATEGY Universe Model Universe Model Statistical Population Statistical Population Domain Design Domain Design Response Design Response Design INFERENCE STRATEGY INFERENCE STRATEGY Survey Design Survey Design Temporal Design Temporal Design Quality Assurance Design Quality Assurance Design SAMPLING STUDIES OF ECOLOGICAL RESPONSES THROUGH TIME HAVE

20 ANATOMY # 20MSTS/2004 The UNIVERSE MODEL Reality (Universe): Ecological Entity Within a Defined Geographic Area to Be Monitored Reality (Universe): Ecological Entity Within a Defined Geographic Area to Be Monitored Model of the Universe: Model of the Universe: Development of a Monitoring Approach Requires Construction of a Model for the Universe Development of a Monitoring Approach Requires Construction of a Model for the Universe Elements Of The Universe Model: Set of Entities Composing The Entire Universe Elements Of The Universe Model: Set of Entities Composing The Entire Universe

21 ANATOMY # 21MSTS/2004 The UNIVERSE MODEL Population Description and Its Sampling Require Definition of the Units in the Population Population Description and Its Sampling Require Definition of the Units in the Population Discrete Units: Discrete Units: Lakes May Be Viewed This Way Lakes May Be Viewed This Way Continuous Structure in Space of Some Dimension: Continuous Structure in Space of Some Dimension: 2-space: forests or agroecosystems 2-space: forests or agroecosystems 1-space: Streams 1-space: Streams 3-space: Ground Water 3-space: Ground Water

22 ANATOMY # 22MSTS/2004 THE MODEL FOR STREAMS Strahler Orders Third Order First Orders First Order First Orders Second Order Second Order

23 ANATOMY # 23MSTS/2004 MONITORING STRATEGY MONITORING STRATEGY Universe Model Universe Model Statistical Population Statistical Population Domain Design Domain Design Response Design Response Design INFERENCE STRATEGY INFERENCE STRATEGY Survey Design Survey Design Temporal Design Temporal Design Quality Assurance Design Quality Assurance Design SAMPLING STUDIES OF ECOLOGICAL RESPONSES THROUGH TIME HAVE

24 ANATOMY # 24MSTS/2004 The STATISTICAL POPULATION T he Collection of Units (as modeled) Over Some Region of Definition T he Collection of Units (as modeled) Over Some Region of Definition Spatial Spatial Temporal Temporal SPATIAL And TEMPORAL SPATIAL And TEMPORAL Population Definition Could Include Features Which Depend on Response Values Population Definition Could Include Features Which Depend on Response Values EX: acid sensitive streams at upper elevations EX: acid sensitive streams at upper elevations

25 ANATOMY # 25MSTS/2004 MONITORING STRATEGY MONITORING STRATEGY Universe Model Universe Model Statistical Population Statistical Population Domain Design Domain Design Response Design Response Design INFERENCE STRATEGY INFERENCE STRATEGY Survey Design Survey Design Temporal Design Temporal Design Quality Assurance Design Quality Assurance Design SAMPLING STUDIES OF ECOLOGICAL RESPONSES THROUGH TIME HAVE

26 ANATOMY # 26MSTS/2004 The DOMAIN Design Specifies Subpopulations or Domains of Special Interest Specifies Subpopulations or Domains of Special Interest May Specify Meaningful Comparisons Between Domains May Specify Meaningful Comparisons Between Domains Similar to Planned Comparisons in Experimental Design Situations Similar to Planned Comparisons in Experimental Design Situations Domain Design May Depend on Response Values Domain Design May Depend on Response Values Ex: Warm Versus Cold Water Lakes Ex: Warm Versus Cold Water Lakes

27 ANATOMY # 27MSTS/2004 The DOMAIN DESIGN - continued S pecifies Subpopulations or Domains of Special Interest S pecifies Subpopulations or Domains of Special Interest Determined From Defining Factors For The Monitoring Activity Determined From Defining Factors For The Monitoring Activity Must Have Critical Connection To Clients Must Have Critical Connection To Clients Other Domains May Be Used For Analysis, Without Having Been Used In Defining The Monitoring Strategy Other Domains May Be Used For Analysis, Without Having Been Used In Defining The Monitoring Strategy EX: EMAP domains include ECOAREAS and STANDARD FEDERAL REGIONS EX: EMAP domains include ECOAREAS and STANDARD FEDERAL REGIONS

28 ANATOMY # 28MSTS/2004 MONITORING STRATEGY MONITORING STRATEGY Universe Model Universe Model Statistical Population Statistical Population Domain Design Domain Design Response Design Response Design INFERENCE STRATEGY INFERENCE STRATEGY Survey Design Survey Design Temporal Design Temporal Design Quality Assurance Design Quality Assurance Design SAMPLING STUDIES OF ECOLOGICAL RESPONSES THROUGH TIME HAVE

29 ANATOMY # 29MSTS/2004 The RESPONSE Design The Response Design Specifies The Response Design Specifies The Process of Obtaining A Response The Process of Obtaining A Response At An Individual Element (Site) At An Individual Element (Site) Of The Resource Of The Resource During A Single Monitoring Period During A Single Monitoring Period Response: What Will Be Determined On An Element – Response: What Will Be Determined On An Element – Needs To Be Responsive to the Objectives of the Monitoring Activity Needs To Be Responsive to the Objectives of the Monitoring Activity

30 ANATOMY # 30MSTS/2004 The RESPONSE Design - continued EMAP Responses Focus On Indicators of EMAP Responses Focus On Indicators of STRESS and STRESS and Condition Condition The Response Design Also Defines The Response Design Also Defines Plot Design Plot Design Measurement Protocols Measurement Protocols Support Region – area around the site where material is collected, or measurements are taken Support Region – area around the site where material is collected, or measurements are taken Data Reduction Protocols Data Reduction Protocols Calculation Of The Final Indicator Value for the Element Calculation Of The Final Indicator Value for the Element

31 ANATOMY # 31MSTS/2004 The RESPONSE Design - Continued For example, consider a response related to macroinvertebrates in streams For example, consider a response related to macroinvertebrates in streams RESPONSE = proportion EPT (This is the proportion of collected macrobenthos organisms, mainly insects, which fall in the taxonomic classes of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, or Trichoptera. Low values indicate polluted streams; high values indicate rather pristine streams) RESPONSE = proportion EPT (This is the proportion of collected macrobenthos organisms, mainly insects, which fall in the taxonomic classes of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, or Trichoptera. Low values indicate polluted streams; high values indicate rather pristine streams)

32 ANATOMY # 32MSTS/2004 The RESPONSE Design - continued - 2... response related to macrobenthos...... response related to macrobenthos... The COLLECTION UNITS could be 10 30cm x 30cm areas, systematically organized, at the stream site, sampled with a Surber sampler The COLLECTION UNITS could be 10 30cm x 30cm areas, systematically organized, at the stream site, sampled with a Surber sampler The EVALUATION UNIT could be a jar containing the composite of all macroinvertebrate organisms collected at the 10 collection sites, or The EVALUATION UNIT could be a jar containing the composite of all macroinvertebrate organisms collected at the 10 collection sites, or The EVALUATION UNIT also could be a jar containing a 1/6 subsample of the composite of macroinvertebrate organisms collected in the 10 collection units. The EVALUATION UNIT also could be a jar containing a 1/6 subsample of the composite of macroinvertebrate organisms collected in the 10 collection units.

33 ANATOMY # 33MSTS/2004 The RESPONSE Design - continued - 3... response related to macrobenthos...... response related to macrobenthos... The LABORATORY EVALUATION of the material would consist of determining and recording the taxa (like family, genus, or species) of each organism in the evaluation material The LABORATORY EVALUATION of the material would consist of determining and recording the taxa (like family, genus, or species) of each organism in the evaluation material The RESPONSE would be determined by computing the number of organisms in the evaluation material belonging to the E, P, T taxonomic classes, and dividing this by the number of organisms classified. The RESPONSE would be determined by computing the number of organisms in the evaluation material belonging to the E, P, T taxonomic classes, and dividing this by the number of organisms classified.

34 ANATOMY # 34MSTS/2004 SAMPLING STUDIES OF ECOLOGICAL RESPONSES THROUGH TIME HAVE MONITORING STRATEGY MONITORING STRATEGY Universe Model Universe Model Statistical Population Statistical Population Domain Design Domain Design Response Design Response Design INFERENCE STRATEGY INFERENCE STRATEGY Survey Design Survey Design Temporal Design Temporal Design Quality Assurance Design Quality Assurance Design

35 ANATOMY # 35MSTS/2004 The INFERENCE STRATEGY Is The Basis For Scientific Inference Is The Basis For Scientific Inference Provides The Connection Between Objectives and the Monitoring Strategy Provides The Connection Between Objectives and the Monitoring Strategy Monitoring Strategy Usually Must Rely on Obtaining Information on a Subset Of All Possible Elements in the Universe Monitoring Strategy Usually Must Rely on Obtaining Information on a Subset Of All Possible Elements in the Universe Specifies Which Elements of the Universe Will Have Responses Determined on Them Specifies Which Elements of the Universe Will Have Responses Determined on Them Can Be Based On Either... (continued ) Can Be Based On Either... (continued )

36 ANATOMY # 36MSTS/2004 The INFERENCE STRATEGY (continued)... Connection...... Connection...... Subset...... Subset...... Have Responses... Have Responses Can Be Based On Either Can Be Based On Either Judgment Selection Of Units Judgment Selection Of Units Inferential Validity Rests on Knowledge Of Relation Between the Universe And the Units Evaluated Inferential Validity Rests on Knowledge Of Relation Between the Universe And the Units Evaluated Probability Selection Of Units Probability Selection Of Units (The Focus Here) (The Focus Here)

37 ANATOMY # 37MSTS/2004 MONITORING STRATEGY MONITORING STRATEGY Universe Model Universe Model Statistical Population Statistical Population Domain Design Domain Design Response Design Response Design INFERENCE STRATEGY INFERENCE STRATEGY Survey Design Survey Design Temporal Design Temporal Design Quality Assurance Design Quality Assurance Design SAMPLING STUDIES OF ECOLOGICAL RESPONSES THROUGH TIME HAVE

38 ANATOMY # 38MSTS/2004 The SURVEY Design Probability Based Survey Designs Are Considered Here Probability Based Survey Designs Are Considered Here May Be Somewhat Limited To Sedentary Resources May Be Somewhat Limited To Sedentary Resources Positive Features (As An Observational Study) Positive Features (As An Observational Study) Permit Clear Statistical Inference to Well-Defined Populations Permit Clear Statistical Inference to Well-Defined Populations Measurements Often can be Made in Natural Settings, Giving Rise to Greater Realism Eventual Results Measurements Often can be Made in Natural Settings, Giving Rise to Greater Realism Eventual Results

39 ANATOMY # 39MSTS/2004 The SURVEY DESIGN - CONTINUED Disadvantages Disadvantages Limited Control Over Values of Predictor Variables Limited Control Over Values of Predictor Variables Restricts Causative Inference Restricts Causative Inference Usually Will Produce Inaccessible Sampling Points Usually Will Produce Inaccessible Sampling Points Good - For Inference Good - For Inference Bad - For Logistics Bad - For Logistics

40 ANATOMY # 40MSTS/2004 The SURVEY DESIGN - CONTINUED Execution of a Sampling Plan Requires Execution of a Sampling Plan Requires A Sampling Frame A Sampling Frame A way to identify elements in the population A way to identify elements in the population Usually somewhat inaccurate for ecological resources Usually somewhat inaccurate for ecological resources – Example selecting vegetation sites along the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon

41 ANATOMY # 41MSTS/2004 VIEW DOWN TRANSECT AT MILE 12.3

42 ANATOMY # 42MSTS/2004 CLIFF AT MILE 135.2 (PARTIAL HEIGHT)

43 ANATOMY # 43MSTS/2004 The SURVEY DESIGN - CONTINUED Execution of a Sampling Plan Requires Execution of a Sampling Plan Requires A Sampling Frame A Sampling Frame A way to identify elements in the population A way to identify elements in the population Usually somewhat inaccurate for ecological resources Usually somewhat inaccurate for ecological resources – Example selecting vegetation sites along the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon Example: Frame for selecting field sites on streams in the Western US Example: Frame for selecting field sites on streams in the Western US

44 ANATOMY # 44MSTS/2004 FRAME ERRORS TO BE DOCUMENTED SHORTLY Water Body Size Water Body Size Flow Status -- re Perennial Flow Status -- re Perennial Identified As Perennial, but not correct Identified As Perennial, but not correct Wastes Effort Of Field Crews Wastes Effort Of Field Crews Identified as Non-perennial, but Really is Perennial Identified as Non-perennial, but Really is Perennial Missed Resource Missed Resource Inaccurate Assessment Inaccurate Assessment

45 ANATOMY # 45MSTS/2004 EMAP-West Stream/river Length (km ± 95% CI) from Peck, et al (2002) - EMAP symposium

46 ANATOMY # 46MSTS/2004 EMAP-West Stream/river Length (km ± 95% CI) from Peck, et al (2002) - EMAP symposium

47 ANATOMY # 47MSTS/2004 EMAP-West Stream/river Length (km ± 95% CI) from Peck, et al (2002) - EMAP symposium

48 ANATOMY # 48MSTS/2004 The SURVEY DESIGN - CONTINUED Execution of a Sampling Plan Requires Execution of a Sampling Plan Requires A Sampling Frame A Sampling Frame A way to identify elements in the population A way to identify elements in the population Usually somewhat inaccurate for ecological resources Usually somewhat inaccurate for ecological resources – Example selecting vegetation sites along the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon Example: Frame for selecting field sites on streams in the Western US Example: Frame for selecting field sites on streams in the Western US May change over time May change over time – As, for example, land use changes

49 ANATOMY # 49MSTS/2004 SITE SELECTION Needs to Accommodate Realities Such As Needs to Accommodate Realities Such As Frame Imperfection Frame Imperfection Frame Which Changes Over Time Frame Which Changes Over Time Sites nearly Uniform Over the Resource Sites nearly Uniform Over the Resource But with substantial randomization But with substantial randomization Supports Variable Probability of Selection Supports Variable Probability of Selection Generalized Random Tessellation Stratified Sampling = GRTS Generalized Random Tessellation Stratified Sampling = GRTS The topic of the next session The topic of the next session

50 ANATOMY # 50MSTS/2004 The EMAP SURVEY Design Assures Representation and Inference to Populations Assures Representation and Inference to Populations Adapted to Resource Characteristics Adapted to Resource Characteristics Emphasizes Spatial Allocation of Samples Emphasizes Spatial Allocation of Samples Uses Two-phase Sampling; Phase I Uses Two-phase Sampling; Phase I Based on a Randomized Point Grid and Associated Areas Based on a Randomized Point Grid and Associated Areas

51 ANATOMY # 51MSTS/2004 Mid-Appalachian Highlands Stream Pilot Mid-Appalachian Highlands Stream Pilot EMAP EXAMPLE OF SELECTED SITES

52 ANATOMY # 52MSTS/2004

53 ANATOMY # 53MSTS/2004 Western Stream Pilot Western Stream Pilot Non-perennial/perennial survey Non-perennial/perennial survey Survey of perennial streams Survey of perennial streams EMAP EXAMPLE OF SELECTED SITES

54 ANATOMY # 54MSTS/2004

55 ANATOMY # 55MSTS/2004 MONITORING STRATEGY MONITORING STRATEGY Universe Model Universe Model Statistical Population Statistical Population Domain Design Domain Design Response Design Response Design INFERENCE STRATEGY INFERENCE STRATEGY Survey Design Survey Design Temporal Design Temporal Design Quality Assurance Design Quality Assurance Design SAMPLING STUDIES OF ECOLOGICAL RESPONSES THROUGH TIME HAVE

56 ANATOMY # 56MSTS/2004 The TEMPORAL Design The TEMPORAL DESIGN specifies the pattern of revisits to sites selected by the Survey Design The TEMPORAL DESIGN specifies the pattern of revisits to sites selected by the Survey Design Sampled population units are partitioned into one (degenerate case) or more PANELS. Sampled population units are partitioned into one (degenerate case) or more PANELS. Each population unit in the same panel has the same temporal pattern of revisits. Each population unit in the same panel has the same temporal pattern of revisits. Panel definition could be probabilistic or systematic Panel definition could be probabilistic or systematic Several temporal designs follow Several temporal designs follow

57 ANATOMY # 57MSTS/2004 TEMPORAL DESIGN: ROTATING PANEL

58 ANATOMY # 58MSTS/2004 TEMPORAL DESIGN: ROTATING PANEL A Rotating Panel Design is the Temporal Design Used by the National Agricultural Statistical Service (US - NASS) for Some Surveys This Temporal Design is Connected in the Experimental Design Sense It is Fairly Well Suited For Estimation Status, but not Particularly Powerful For Detecting Trend Over Intermediate Time Spans

59 ANATOMY # 59MSTS/2004 TEMPORAL DESIGN: SERIALLY ALTERNATING This Temporal Design is Unconnected in the Experimental Design Sense. This was the Temporal Design Initially Prescribed For EMAP, But...

60 ANATOMY # 60MSTS/2004 TEMPORAL DESIGN: AUGMENTED SERIALLY ALTERNATING This Temporal Design Is Connected In The Experimental Design Sense, but Consider Its potential for Trampling Effects. This Temporal Design Is Connected In The Experimental Design Sense, but Consider Its potential for Trampling Effects.

61 ANATOMY # 61MSTS/2004 TEMPORAL DESIGN: PARTIALLY AUGMENTED SERIALLY ALTERNATING This Temporal Design is Connected in The Experimental Design Sense, but is Weak for Estimating Period Effects. This Temporal Design is Connected in The Experimental Design Sense, but is Weak for Estimating Period Effects.

62 ANATOMY # 62MSTS/2004 TEMPORAL DESIGN: SERIALLY ALTERNATING WITH CONSECUTIVE YEAR REVISITS This Temporal Design is Connected in the Experimental Design Sense This Temporal Design is Connected in the Experimental Design Sense But It Provides Visits to Only Half as Many Sites as the Base Serially Alternating Design. But It Provides Visits to Only Half as Many Sites as the Base Serially Alternating Design.

63 ANATOMY # 63MSTS/2004 TEMPORAL DESIGN: SPLIT PANEL SERIALLY ALTERNATING PLUS SERIALLY ALTERNATING WITH CONSECUTIVE YEAR REVISITS This Temporal Design is Connected in the Experimental Design Sense This Temporal Design is Connected in the Experimental Design Sense

64 ANATOMY # 64MSTS/2004 TEMPORAL DESIGN: SPLIT PANEL SERIALLY ALTERNATING PLUS SERIALLY ALTERNATING WITH WITHIN YEAR AND CONSECUTIVE YEAR REVISITS THE TEMPORAL DESIGN IN USE BY EMAP - SURFACE WATERS

65 ANATOMY # 65MSTS/2004 THE REVISIT SPLIT PANEL OF THE THE TEMPORAL DESIGN IN USE BY EMAP - SURFACE WATERS

66 ANATOMY # 66MSTS/2004 TEMPORAL DESIGN: SPLIT PANEL SERIALLY ALTERNATING PLUS SERIALLY ALTERNATING WITH WITHIN YEAR AND CONSECUTIVE YEAR REVISITS THE TEMPORAL DESIGN IN USE BY EMAP - SURFACE WATERS This Temporal Design is Connected in the Experimental Design Sense This Temporal Design is Connected in the Experimental Design Sense It Also Supports Estimation of the Site by Time Period (site by year) Interaction. It Also Supports Estimation of the Site by Time Period (site by year) Interaction. Revisits To About 10% Of Sites Allocates about 30% of Resources To Revisits Revisits To About 10% Of Sites Allocates about 30% of Resources To Revisits

67 ANATOMY # 67MSTS/2004 MONITORING STRATEGY MONITORING STRATEGY Universe Model Universe Model Statistical Population Statistical Population Domain Design Domain Design Response Design Response Design INFERENCE STRATEGY INFERENCE STRATEGY Survey Design Survey Design Temporal Design Temporal Design Quality Assurance Design Quality Assurance Design SAMPLING STUDIES OF ECOLOGICAL RESPONSES THROUGH TIME HAVE

68 ANATOMY # 68MSTS/2004 QUALITY ASSURANCE DESIGN Defines Those Activities Intended to Provide Data of Known Quality: Defines Those Activities Intended to Provide Data of Known Quality: Blind duplicates Blind duplicates Accepted chemical standards, Etc Accepted chemical standards, Etc Can Provide Valid Estimates of the Variance of Pure Measurement Error Can Provide Valid Estimates of the Variance of Pure Measurement Error

69 ANATOMY # 69MSTS/2004 END OF PLANNED PRESENTATION

70 ANATOMY # 70MSTS/2004 RELEVANT COMPONENTS OF VARIANCE FOR EMAP POPULATION = LAKE or STREAM, for example POPULATION = LAKE or STREAM, for example YEAR - YEAR - YEAR by SITE - YEAR by SITE - CREW - CREW - SHORT TERM TEMPORAL - index window - SHORT TERM TEMPORAL - index window - PROTOCOL ERROR - PROTOCOL ERROR - MEASUREMENT ERROR - MEASUREMENT ERROR -

71 ANATOMY # 71MSTS/2004 RELEVANT COMPONENTS OF VARIANCE FOR EMAP WHAT DOES IT TAKE TO ESTIMATE THESE? WHAT DOES IT TAKE TO ESTIMATE THESE? WHICH ONES SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN RESIDUAL VARIANCE WHICH ONES SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN RESIDUAL VARIANCE WHICH TREND MUST OVERCOME TO BE DEMONSTRATED? WHICH TREND MUST OVERCOME TO BE DEMONSTRATED?

72 ANATOMY # 72MSTS/2004 COMPARISONS TO USUAL PERSPECTIVES OF FINITE POPULATION SAMPLING UNIVERSE MODEL (AS DISTINCT FROM THE UNIVERSE) UNIVERSE MODEL (AS DISTINCT FROM THE UNIVERSE) NOT RELEVANT NOT RELEVANT VIEWED AS A LIST VIEWED AS A LIST POPULATION POPULATION VERY SIMILAR, OTHER THAN DIFFERENCES IMPLICIT IN THE UNIVERSE MODEL VERY SIMILAR, OTHER THAN DIFFERENCES IMPLICIT IN THE UNIVERSE MODEL

73 ANATOMY # 73MSTS/2004 COMPARISONS TO USUAL PERSPECTIVES OF FINITE POPULATION SAMPLING continued DOMAIN DESIGN DOMAIN DESIGN USUALLY NOT EXPLICITLY ACKNOWLEDGED, BUT VIEWED AS PART OF THE DESIGN PROCESS USUALLY NOT EXPLICITLY ACKNOWLEDGED, BUT VIEWED AS PART OF THE DESIGN PROCESS RESPONSE DESIGN RESPONSE DESIGN QUESTIONNAIRE CONSTRUCTION AND DESIGN QUESTIONNAIRE CONSTRUCTION AND DESIGN SOME ELEMENTS OF INTERVIEW PROTOCOLS SOME ELEMENTS OF INTERVIEW PROTOCOLS SURVEY DESIGN SURVEY DESIGN RELATIVELY SIMILAR RELATIVELY SIMILAR

74 ANATOMY # 74MSTS/2004 COMPARISONS TO USUAL PERSPECTIVES OF FINITE POPULATION SAMPLING continued - 2 TEMPORAL DESIGN TEMPORAL DESIGN PRESENT, BUT PRESENT, BUT MANY FINITE POPULATION SURVEYS ARE ONE- TIME MANY FINITE POPULATION SURVEYS ARE ONE- TIME MANY LARGE SURVEYS HAVE A TEMPORAL DIMENSION MANY LARGE SURVEYS HAVE A TEMPORAL DIMENSION CHANGE USUALLY IS OF FAR MORE INTEREST THAN TREND CHANGE USUALLY IS OF FAR MORE INTEREST THAN TREND SURVEY LITERATURE DISTINGUISHES BETWEEN SURVEY LITERATURE DISTINGUISHES BETWEEN GROSS CHANGE - follows units across time GROSS CHANGE - follows units across time NET CHANGE - recognizes that change can occur in both the response and in who is in the population NET CHANGE - recognizes that change can occur in both the response and in who is in the population

75 ANATOMY # 75MSTS/2004 COMPARISONS TO USUAL PERSPECTIVES OF FINITE POPULATION SAMPLING continued - 3 QUALITY ASSURANCE DESIGN QUALITY ASSURANCE DESIGN SURVEYS OF HUMANS (OR BUSINESSES, ETC) HAVE A VERY SIMILAR INTENT, BUT DETAILS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY SURVEYS OF HUMANS (OR BUSINESSES, ETC) HAVE A VERY SIMILAR INTENT, BUT DETAILS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY SUPERVISION IN PHONE SURVEYS SUPERVISION IN PHONE SURVEYS QUESTIONS TO CONFIRM RESPONDENT CONSISTENCY QUESTIONS TO CONFIRM RESPONDENT CONSISTENCY REINTERVIEWS and SIMILAR REEVALUATIONS REINTERVIEWS and SIMILAR REEVALUATIONS

76 ANATOMY # 76MSTS/2004 MONITORING STRATEGY MONITORING STRATEGY UNIVERSE MODEL UNIVERSE MODEL STATISTICAL POPULATION STATISTICAL POPULATION DOMAIN DESIGN DOMAIN DESIGN RESPONSE DESIGN RESPONSE DESIGN INFERENCE STRATEGY INFERENCE STRATEGY SURVEY DESIGN SURVEY DESIGN TEMPORAL DESIGN TEMPORAL DESIGN QUALITY ASSURANCE DESIGN QUALITY ASSURANCE DESIGN SAMPLING STUDIES OF ECOLOGICAL RESPONSES THROUGH TIME HAVE These components exist regardless of the inference strategy These components exist for any monitoring strategy

77 ANATOMY # 77MSTS/2004 LINKS TO MONITORING REPORTS/DOCUMENTATION Links to various monitoring programs, To the programs site One to its methods, and One to a current report. As links change in an unpredictable fashion, The search words should provide a quick path to the current link. Speaker on this program representing that program

78 ANATOMY # 78MSTS/2004 LINKS TO MONITORING REPORTS/DOCUMENTATION (Continued) Adelaide Coastal Waters Study Adelaide Coastal Waters Study Program site: http://www.environment.sa.gov.au/epa/acws.html http://www.clw.csiro.au/acws/ Program site: http://www.environment.sa.gov.au/epa/acws.html http://www.clw.csiro.au/acws/ (more technical of the two) http://www.environment.sa.gov.au/epa/acws.html http://www.clw.csiro.au/acws/ http://www.environment.sa.gov.au/epa/acws.html http://www.clw.csiro.au/acws/ Current Report: http://www.environment.sa.gov.au/epa/pdfs/acwsnewsno5.pdf Current Report: http://www.environment.sa.gov.au/epa/pdfs/acwsnewsno5.pdf http://www.environment.sa.gov.au/epa/pdfs/acwsnewsno5.pdf Methods:http://www.clw.csiro.au/acws/IS1.html Methods:http://www.clw.csiro.au/acws/IS1.htmlhttp://www.clw.csiro.au/acws/IS1.html Search words: Search words: adelaide coastal waters study; acws au Speaker: Speaker: David Fox, University of Adelaide

79 ANATOMY # 79MSTS/2004 LINKS TO MONITORING REPORTS/DOCUMENTATION (Continued) Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Program (ABMP) Program site: http://www.abmp.arc.ab.ca/ Program site: http://www.abmp.arc.ab.ca/ http://www.abmp.arc.ab.ca/ Current Report: http://www.abmp.arc.ab.ca/AnnualReport2003.pd f Current Report: http://www.abmp.arc.ab.ca/AnnualReport2003.pd f http://www.abmp.arc.ab.ca/AnnualReport2003.pd f http://www.abmp.arc.ab.ca/AnnualReport2003.pd f Methods: http://www.abmp.arc.ab.ca/ScienceProtocols.htm Methods: http://www.abmp.arc.ab.ca/ScienceProtocols.htm http://www.abmp.arc.ab.ca/ScienceProtocols.htm Search words: Search words: alberta biodiversity monitoring program; abmp ca Speaker: Speaker: None, unfortunately

80 ANATOMY # 80MSTS/2004 LINKS TO MONITORING REPORTS/DOCUMENTATION (Continued) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) http://www.epa.gov/emap/ Program site: http://www.epa.gov/emap/ http://www.epa.gov/emap/ http://www.epa.gov/maia/html/maha.html Current Report: http://www.epa.gov/maia/html/maha.html http://www.epa.gov/maia/html/maha.html www.epa.gov/emap/html/pubs/docs/groupdocs/ surfwatr/field/ws_abs.html Methods: http://www.epa.gov/emap/html/pubs/docs/groupdocs/ surfwatr/field/ws_abs.html Search words: epa environmental monitoring assessment program; emap epa Speaker here: Tony Olsen Speaker here: Tony Olsen

81 ANATOMY # 81MSTS/2004 LINKS TO MONITORING REPORTS/DOCUMENTATION (Continued) Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program site: Program site: http://fia.fs.fed.us/ http://fia.fs.fed.us/ Current Report: Current Report: http://www.fs.fed.us/research/sustain/ (for example) http://www.fs.fed.us/research/sustain/ Methods: Methods: http://fia.fs.fed.us/FIAProgramInformation.htm (accessible at this link) http://fia.fs.fed.us/FIAProgramInformation.htm Search words: Search words: forest inventory analysis; FIA USDA Speaker here: Mike Williams Speaker here: Mike Williams

82 ANATOMY # 82MSTS/2004 LINKS TO MONITORING REPORTS/DOCUMENTATION (Continued) National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) Program site: Program site: http://www.usda.gov/nass/ http://www.usda.gov/nass/ Current Reports: Current Reports: http://www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/catalog2004.pdf http://www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/catalog2004.pdf Research: Research: http://www.nass.usda.gov/research/SERS.htm http://www.nass.usda.gov/research/SERS.htm Search words: Search words: national agricultural statistical service; nass Speaker here: Carol House Speaker here: Carol House

83 ANATOMY # 83MSTS/2004 LINKS TO MONITORING REPORTS/DOCUMENTATION (Continued) National Park Inventory and Monitoring Program Program site: Program site: http://science.nature.nps.gov/im/index.htm http://science.nature.nps.gov/im/index.htm Current Reports: Current Reports: http://science.nature.nps.gov/im/reports.htm http://science.nature.nps.gov/im/reports.htm Methods: Methods: http://science.nature.nps.gov/im/standards.htm http://science.nature.nps.gov/im/standards.htm Search words: Search words: national park monitoring natural resources; nps im Speaker here: Steve Fancy Speaker here: Steve Fancy

84 ANATOMY # 84MSTS/2004 LINKS TO MONITORING REPORTS/DOCUMENTATION (Continued) National Resources Inventory( NRI) Program site: http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/technical/NRI/ Program site: http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/technical/NRI/ http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/technical/NRI/ Current Report: http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/technical/land/nri02/ Current Report: http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/technical/land/nri02/ http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/technical/land/nri02/ Methods: http://www.statlab.iastate.edu/survey/nri/#Nusser andGoebel Methods: http://www.statlab.iastate.edu/survey/nri/#Nusser andGoebel http://www.statlab.iastate.edu/survey/nri/#Nusser andGoebel http://www.statlab.iastate.edu/survey/nri/#Nusser andGoebel Search words: Search words: national resources inventory; web path: nrcs to technical to NRI Speakers here: Speakers here: Wayne Fuller & Jeff Goebel

85 ANATOMY # 85MSTS/2004 LINKS TO MONITORING REPORTS/DOCUMENTATION (Continued) National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) Program site:http://wetlands.fws.gov/ Program site:http://wetlands.fws.gov/http://wetlands.fws.gov/ Current Report: http://training.fws.gov/library/Pubs9/wetlands86 -97_highres.pdf Current Report: http://training.fws.gov/library/Pubs9/wetlands86 -97_highres.pdf http://training.fws.gov/library/Pubs9/wetlands86 -97_highres.pdf http://training.fws.gov/library/Pubs9/wetlands86 -97_highres.pdf Methods: Methods:documented in above report Search words: Search words:national wetlands inventory Speaker here: Speaker here: Tom Dahl

86 ANATOMY # 86MSTS/2004 LINKS TO MONITORING REPORTS/DOCUMENTATION (Continued) LEARNING MATERIALS RELATED TO ENVIRONMENTAL SAMPLING (From a course at Oregon State University) (From a course at Oregon State University) ST571 http://oregonstate.edu/instruct/stat/urquhart/st571/index.htm http://oregonstate.edu/instruct/stat/urquhart/st571/index.htm Presentation materials from talks presented here will be available at http://www.stat.colostate.edu/starmap Opportunities->meetings; publications -> presentations; Learning materials


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