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How will future climate changes affect water sources? Results of a study in Norrbotten 2010 Robert Jönsson Vatten & Miljöbyrån, Luleå.

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Presentation on theme: "How will future climate changes affect water sources? Results of a study in Norrbotten 2010 Robert Jönsson Vatten & Miljöbyrån, Luleå."— Presentation transcript:

1 How will future climate changes affect water sources? Results of a study in Norrbotten 2010 Robert Jönsson Vatten & Miljöbyrån, Luleå

2 The aim of the study To evaluate local risks and vulnerabilities for water sources regarding climate change, considering: All 14 main water sources in Norrbotten The presumed climate in the period of The initiative to the project was taken by the Länsstyrelsen in Norrbotten (the county) according to the government bill En sammanhållen klimat- och energipolitik (Coherent climate and energy politics)

3 How the study was carried out Statistics of the future climate in Norrbotten (by SMHI) Collection of back-ground material for each unique water source Compilation of possible scenarios/consequences for the water sources Risk assessmentCompilation of resultsPresentation

4 Municipality Surface water (SW)/ Ground water (GW) ArjeplogSW ArvidsjaurGW BodenGW GällivareGW HaparandaSW JokkmokkSW KalixGW KirunaSW LuleåGW PajalaGW PiteåSW ÄlvsbynGW ÖverkalixGW ÖvertorneåGW Main water sources in Norrbotten ground water 64 % surface water 36 %

5 Climate changes in Norrbotten Increased precipitation Precipitation increases with approx % Average runoff increases Groundwater levels rise Intense rain and rainstorms Maximum precipitation during 7 days increases with 10-15% Increased average temperature Temperature increase in Sweden: 2,5-4,5 ˚C, in Norrbotten somewhat higher. Vegetation periods get longer Ice brake-ups come earlier

6 Possible consequences on water source of increased precipitation Additional contribution of organic matter, particles, nutrients, pollutants from surface water and roads etc Changed physical, chemical and biological situations Increased risk of land slides

7 Possible consequences on water sources of intense rain and rainstorms Increased levels of microbiological contaminations Increased risk of waterborne infections Increased levels of organic matter Increased levels of different types of emissions Emissions of different types of pollutants in the inflow area of water sources Flooding of low situated installations

8 Possible consequences on water sources of increased average temperature Risk for new waterborne and pathogenic virus, protozoans and parasites in the water systems Changes in agriculture and foresting due to climate changes Longer stratification periods Larger part of the precipitation falls as rain and increased number of snow melting periods etc Increased recreational activities on lakes Toxic algae bloom High water temperatures

9 Risk assessment Risk assessment was made in two steps: 1.Risk assessment of existing potential contamination sources (2 cases: rainstorm/flood and increased runoff) 2.Risk assessment of possible consequences on water sources regarding climate changes

10 Results -Step 1, risk assessment existing potential contamination sources Source of contamination Risk that pollutants affects the water catchment at intense rain/flooding Risk that pollutants affects the water catchment at increased runoff SmallMediumLargeVery lage SmallMediumLargeVery large Waste storage Storm water from urban environments Storm water from industrial land Other contamination from industrial land Contamination from contaminated land Municipal sewerage/sewage treatment Individual sewageplants Petroleum storage Livestock Contamination from roads Agricultural land Forestry

11 Risk matrix, Step 2 Risk- and vulnerability analysis made according to a method recommended by the Swedish National Food Administration Probability Consequence Small (K1) Medium (K2) Large (K3) Very large (K4) Very large (S4)GreenYellowRedBlack Large (S3)GreenYellowRed Medium (S2)Green YellowRed Small (S1)Green Yellow Green Simplified risk management – preventive actions (i.e. self-monitoring and deviation handling are to be maintained) YellowActive risk management – preventive and/or preparing actions are to be considered RedRisk has to be reduced – preventive and/or preparing actions are necessary BlackUrgent risk – preventive and/or preparing actions are to be taken immediately

12 Result Step 2 – Water sources in Norrbotten Affects of increased precipitation Green Simplified risk management – preventive actions (i.e. self-monitoring and deviation handling are to be maintained) YellowActive risk management – preventive and/or preparing actions are to be considered RedRisk has to be reduced – preventive and/or preparing actions are necessary BlackUrgent risk – preventive and/or preparing actions are to be taken immediately

13 Result Step 2 – Water sources in Norrbotten Affects of intense rain and rainstorms Green Simplified risk management – preventive actions (i.e. self-monitoring and deviation handling are to be maintained) YellowActive risk management – preventive and/or preparing actions are to be considered RedRisk has to be reduced – preventive and/or preparing actions are necessary BlackUrgent risk – preventive and/or preparing actions are to be taken immediately

14 Result Step 2 – Water sources in Norrbotten Affects of increased average temperature Green Simplified risk management – preventive actions (i.e. self-monitoring and deviation handling are to be maintained) YellowActive risk management – preventive and/or preparing actions are to be considered RedRisk has to be reduced – preventive and/or preparing actions are necessary BlackUrgent risk – preventive and/or preparing actions are to be taken immediately

15 Conclusion – largest risks for water sources in Norrbotten is pollution/contamination Increased runoff – transportation of organic matter, nutrients pesticides etc from forestry and agriculture to the water sources Diffuse pollution – slow process Study trends – to act before it is too late! Flooding – of low situated installations Increased risks of microbiological contamination Consider the location and the water treatment Overflow from sewage plants and pumping stations Urgent contamination – fast and serious process Dimensioning considering new conditions

16 Conclusion The method can be used as a tool for the municipalities in their continuing work with other water sources The water supply in Norrbotten, as well as in the rest of Scandinavia, is facing many threats and risks, whereof the climate change is one that should be taken seriously

17 Thank you for your attention! Robert Jönsson


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