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WAGENINGEN UR - CCB CLIMATE CHANGE AND BIOSPHERE RESEARCH CEntre www.wau.wageningen-ur.nl/ccb/ from a misconception to a key thematic focus from the past.

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Presentation on theme: "WAGENINGEN UR - CCB CLIMATE CHANGE AND BIOSPHERE RESEARCH CEntre www.wau.wageningen-ur.nl/ccb/ from a misconception to a key thematic focus from the past."— Presentation transcript:

1 WAGENINGEN UR - CCB CLIMATE CHANGE AND BIOSPHERE RESEARCH CEntre www.wau.wageningen-ur.nl/ccb/ from a misconception to a key thematic focus from the past to the future upcoming period of main opportunities for CCB Wag UR

2 Conceptual Framework II Effects Natural variations Exploitation era Recovery era? Global Change Nutirient Cycle Hydrology Climate Terrestrial Biosphere Enhanced effects Enhanced effects Terrestrial Biosphere and land-use changes Reduced/temporised effects (Adaptation) Positive effects (Mitigation) Terrestrial Biosphere and land-use changes

3 CCB Research Themes Role of land cover in regional energy and water balance Formation and emission of Greenhouse Gases Effects on physiological processes in soils and plants Effects on ecosystem functioning and biodiversity Consequences for land use and water management Socio-economic aspects and policy analysis Advisory and consultancy in environmental and climate policies

4 Biosphere Atmosphere Interactions and the Regional Climate System Pavel Kabat CCB - Wageningen UR Acknowledgements: IGBP - BAHC Scientific Steering Committee GEWEX - ISLSCP International. Science Panel R. Hutjes, H. Dolman, P. Spiertz, H. ter Maat In the context of regional weather and climate, landscape biospheric processes are as much a part of the climate system as atmospheric processes

5 LE = 0.65 R n LE = 0.25 R n H = 0.3 R n H = 0.65 R n Boreal Forest Temperate Forest Coupling Principles - Energy Balance Link R n = LE + H + S 0.10 R g R n = 0.87 R g 0.10 R g R n = 0.87 R g S = 0.03 R n S = 0.07 R n 25 m 10 m PBL 1500 m PBL 3000 m CAPE + cloud activity characteristics

6 physical, chemical and biological ….excellent opportunity to integrate the important processes - physical, chemical and biological - that transport and transform material and energy across the land- atmosphere interface….

7 Land - Atmosphere Project off-spring of BAHC, IGAC, GCTE, GAIM full and pro-active partnership with WCRP, story of a truly complementary approach learning from the past, capitalizing on successes of this collaboration (GEWEX- BAHC, LBA,...) stepping stone for future joint programmes (mainly with WCRP GEWEX)

8 Biota, Aerosols, Clouds, and Climate Biosphere/climate feedback proposed in 1987, in which marine phytoplankton emits a volatile sulfur-containing substance (DMS) DMS oxidized to sulfate aerosol particles that serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) Increased CCN ->more cloud droplets -> clouds brighter ->reduced amount of sunlight absorbed by the Earth Earth cooling -> changing the living conditions for plankton, and thus their rate of DMS emissions

9 Biota, Aerosols, Clouds, and Climate feedback thought to be relevant mostly to the oceans, continental regions considered always to have high levels of CCN, so that clouds would never be CCN-starved and any additional CCN would have little effect recent work in the Amazon shows this assumption to be wrong: in the wet season with no detectable anthropogenic input, the balance of natural sources and sinks produces a CCN number concentration almost identical to marine values.

10 Biota, Aerosols, Clouds, and Climate By providing most of the CCN to the natural atmosphere, the biosphere has a strong influence on cloud radiative and microphysical properties, and thereby on both climate and the hydrological cycle. This natural regulation mechanism is now in the process of being overwhelmed by anthropogenic emissions

11 CCB Research Themes Formation and emission of Greenhouse Gases

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13 Landuse classification Emissions inventory Attributes emissions: industrial urban traffic etc Attributes agriculture: area volume increment carbon stock carbon flux etc... Attributes forests: area volume increment carbon stock carbon flux etc... Carbon flux map Landuse inventory GIS based methodology

14 CCB Research Themes Effects on physiological processes in soils and plants

15 Scenario Projection: 2000-2100 When climate change is neglected (blue line) the coupled model produces a CO 2 trajectory similar to the standard IS92a scenario as used in GCMs (black line). When climate-carbon cycle feedbacks are included (red line) we see much higher rates of CO 2 increase and climate change. By 2100 the fully coupled model produces 970 ppmv and a global warming of 5.5K (c.f. 700 ppmv and 4K without climate-carbon cycle feedbacks).

16 CCB Research Themes Effects on ecosystem functioning and biodiversity

17 Climate, Water Quality & Ecosystems Turbid water A stability landscape of ecosystems (source Scheffer, 2001) Aquatic Ecosystems, sometimes are in a seemingly steady state despite human pressures (lack of early warning signals) Gradual decline in ecosystem resilience can result in a sudden shift caused by an (climatic) event like a flood or a drought Also climate change (T) reduces ecosystem resilience Clear water

18 CCB Research Themes Consequences for land use and water management

19 Learning to better cope with climate variability and change

20 ACCEPTABLE RISK hydrology water resources vulnerability RANDOM INTERNAL / EXTERNAL DISTURBANCES Climate Land-use Internal dynamics Animal plagues Human population pressure General IWRM Issues:

21 CCB Research Themes Socio-economic aspects and policy analysis Advisory and consultancy in environmental and climate policies

22 Central role of politics: (water) indicators: Water use in irrigation Reflexive modernity Water use in irrigation is a relevant indicator of the hydraulic mission's indicative trajectory Political 5 Econo mic 4 Green 3 Industrial modernity Hydraulic mission 2 Pre-modern 1 1 st paradigm2 nd water management paradigm 3 rd para. 4 th para. 5 th paradigm Green movement in the North 1850190019502000 Source: Allan 2000 19901980 Modernity inspired by the Enlightenment, science, capitalism and the belief that Nature could be controlled The trajectory of industrial modernity The South is still involved in its hydraulic mission Trajectory of reflexive modernity in the North Tony Allan, 2000

23 Central role of politics: (climate) Reflexive modernity Political 5 Econo mic 4 Green 3 Industrial modernity Hydraulic mission 2 Pre-modern 1 1850190019502000 Source: Allan 2000 19901980 Political Awareness Climate/ global change & CO2 & T Club Rome IPCC I, II RIO IPCC III RIO+10 Measures ?

24 CCB: challenges of integrated approach Multidisciplinarity and feedbacks as important as in-depth research

25 Increase radiation Temperature rise Precipitation & Evaporation SOIL PHYSICS & RESOURCES Land Cover Change Change physico- chemical water parameters Water tables Oceans WATER RESOURCES Atmosphere CLIMATE PHYSICS GREENHOUSE GASES ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONING Groundwater & River discharge DEVELOPING COUNTRIES EUROPE, USA Floods/Droughts Sea level rise Water Scarcity Water Quality Biodiversity Health

26 CCB: challenges of integrated approach Synergy in socio-economic aspects and policy analysis, including environmental and climate policies

27 Current political barriers global change & climate issues: Spatial & Regional (sectoral) political power structures National power structures Barriers to sustainability of current practices in IRWM How? International policy in relation to drivers global change (emissions, land use, pop. Growth, etc), conventions,like CBD, UNFCCC, CCD, RAMSAR Actual measures at local level

28 CCB: a role to play …. National: ICES KIS Klimaat National: a Netherlands Core Centre Global Change (ism VU-IvM, CKO, ICIS, e.a. National: VROM, LNV, EZ en V&W klimaatdimensie National: NWO Europees: EU 6de KP (CofE and IRPs) Mondiaal: IGBP, WCRP, IHDP maar ook NL-climate change assistance programmes, WB-programmes, IPCC, MA,...


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