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Frank Wechsung* and co-workers from phase I of GLOWA-Elbe May 19 th 2005 Second GLOWA-Status Conference, Cologne Challenges of global change for sustainable.

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Presentation on theme: "Frank Wechsung* and co-workers from phase I of GLOWA-Elbe May 19 th 2005 Second GLOWA-Status Conference, Cologne Challenges of global change for sustainable."— Presentation transcript:

1 Frank Wechsung* and co-workers from phase I of GLOWA-Elbe May 19 th 2005 Second GLOWA-Status Conference, Cologne Challenges of global change for sustainable water use in the German Elbe basin *Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

2 Overview 1.Water related facts, trends & concepts 2.Integrative Methodological Approach 3.Global change scenarios 4.Scenario impacts Agricultural land use and nitrogen entry Water availability in Spree-Havel 5.Adjusting measures Spree-Havel basin

3 Fig. 1 The Elbe basin 1. Water related facts, trends & concepts Rural beside of metropolitan areas (Berlin, Prague, Hamburg, Leipzig, Dresden). Water availability second lowest in Europe (680 m 3 /capita year).

4 Fig. 1 The Elbe basin 1. Water related facts, trends & concepts Mild climate (8.6°C) with low precipitation totals (616 mm) Climatic water balance (P-E pot ) just even. Rich on surface water. Territory share of the German part by East German states: 88%.

5 East-German transition (since 1989) Fig. 1 The Elbe basin 1. Water related facts, trends & concepts Welfare Initial increase in per capita income from about 10 to 16 thousand. Investments in public infrastructure. Deindustrialisation: > Net loss of 3 Mill. Working places. Shrinking population: > Emigration, > Dropped birth rates from 1.6 to 0.77, recently climbing back to 1.3. Water sector Increase in water quality ha lake surface for Lusatia. High GDP share of primary sectors: > gas, energy & water supply and Agriculture. Oversized water infrastructure. Increasing water prices. Decreasing water consumption per capita.

6 Climate Drying Fig. 1 The Elbe basin 1. Water related facts, trends & concepts +1.1 °C -46 mm, Summer +50 mm, Winter Recent 50 year changes Temperature Precipitation

7 Policies for sustainable use of surface water: Alleviation of landscape run off, increasing the residence time of surface water. Further decrease of nutrient emissions from point and diffuse sources. GLOWA-Elbe: Applicability under global change and necessary specifications. 1. Water related facts, trends & concepts

8 Overview 1.Water related facts, trends & concepts 2.Integrative Methodological Approach 3.Global change scenarios 4.Scenario impacts Agricultural land use and nitrogen entry Water availability in Spree-Havel 5.Adjusting measures Spree-Havel basin

9 2. Integrative Methodological Approach- Distributed Mode IMA-General: Reference system to control research activities within a global change project. IMA-Distributed Mode Adjusting to specific needs Directing Harmonizing and Synchronizing research.

10 Water quality: N-Entry Water quantity: surface water regulation Glowa-Elbe control Spree-Havel Berlin Spreewald 2. Integrated Methodological Approach- Research Network ElbeElbe German Unstrut Basic definitions: topics & scales. Refinement specific problem structures, regional hot spots, and the available knowledge. Harmonizing: scenarios, indicators. Crosschecking: simulations. Final integration: extra- and interpolations, aggregation.

11 Overview 1.Water related facts, trends & concepts 2.Integrative Methodological Approach 3.Global change scenarios 4.Scenario impacts Agricultural land use and nitrogen entry Water availability in Spree-Havel 5.Adjusting measures Spree-Havel basin 6.Outlook

12 3. Global change scenarios ECHAM4-OPYC3 REMO Global Europe German Elbe NEURO-FUZZYSTAR NEURO-FUZZYSTAR comparably most likely of 100 statistical realization mm K -1 Year Summer Winter Climate How likely is further regional drying in the German Elbe basin ?

13 General socioeconomic development, perspectives for agriculture and brown coal mining 3. Global change scenarios From A1/ B2 SRES storylines general economic growth population change operating margins of single sectors (tourism) and sector policies. and sub-sequently specific sector scenarios were formulated Agricultural policy: Partial liberalization following A1 Fees on mineral N fertilizer use following B2 Brown coal mining in Lusatia: No alternative A1 policy Finishing after 2035 in consistency with B2

14 Overview 1.Water related facts, trends & concepts 2.Integrated Methodological Approach 3.Global change scenarios 4.Scenario impacts Agricultural land use and nitrogen entry Water availability in Spree-Havel 5.Adjusting measures Spree-Havel basin 6.Outlook

15 Water quality Climate vs (P-E pot ): -27 mm Frames of development Status ex (Business as usual) Partial liberalisation Nitrogen fee Farms Nitrogen surpluss not altered by climate change, significantly decreased only by Nitrogen fee Nitrogen entry to the Elbe decreased only when Nitrogen surplus was reduced 3 Impact 2 Indicators & criteria 1 Problem 1 Scenario Scenario impacts: Agricultural land use and nitrogen entry to the basin

16 Frame of development status-partialN-STAR quo *status-ex *liberalization*fee*32** Indicators P-E pot [mm] Yields 1 [dt/ha] Cereals Oilseeds Arable land 2 [million ha] Farms N- surplus 2 N-entry 3 simulated by 1 ) SWIM, Hattermann et al. (2005, Kapitel II-2.2.2), 2) RAUMIS, Gömann et al. (2005, Kapitel I-2.1.1), 3) MONERIS, Behrendt et al. (2005, Kapitel I-2.2) * recent climate , ** scenario climate Scenario impacts: Agricultural land use and nitrogen entry to the basin hydrotops, daily mode 112 districts, yearly mode 184 Subbasins, 5 year mode

17 Frame of development status-partialN-STAR quo *status-ex *liberalization*fee*32** Indicatorschange [mm] to status-ex P-E pot [mm]22NN-27 change [%] to status-ex Yields 1 [dt/ha] Cereals Oilseeds Arable land 2 [million ha]4.1 Farms N- surplus N change [%] to status-quo (=100) N-entry 3 change [%] to status-ex N simulated by 1 ) SWIM, Hattermann et al. (2005, Kapitel II-2.2.2), 2) RAUMIS, Gömann et al. (2005, Kapitel I-2.1.1), 3) MONERIS, Behrendt et al. (2005, Kapitel I-2.2) * recent climate , ** scenario climate Scenario impacts: Agricultural land use and nitrogen entry to the basin at the same order as STAR 32 impact on E t and Run off

18 Overview 1.Water related facts, trends & concepts 2.Integrative Methodological Approach 3.Global change scenarios 4.Scenario impacts Agricultural land use and nitrogen entry Water availability in Spree-Havel 5.Adjusting measures Spree-Havel basin

19 Flooding of misused coal pits duration increased by about 6 month, extra demand of 1000 t calc hydrate for neutralization treatment Climate vs P: - 29 mm T: + 0.5°K Frame of development: business as usual Inflow to Berlin the minimum of 8m 3 /s could not be guaranteed anymore during the summer of a dry year Water availability in Spree-Havel 2 Indicators & criteria 1 Problem 1 Scenario 3 Impact Scenario impacts: Water availability in Spree-Havel WBALMO 400 water users 14 reservoirs 170 local balances

20 Overview 1.Water related facts, trends & concepts 2.Integrated Methodological Approach 3.Global change scenarios 4.Scenario impacts Agricultural land use and nitrogen entry Water availability in Spree-Havel 5.Adjusting measures Spree-Havel basin

21 1 Problem Water availability in Spree-Havel 1 Scenario Climate: Frame of development: Management alternatives at the upper Spree region: oBasis oAccelerated flooding oReduced ditches oWater imports from the Oder basin at Spreewald hight oWater import from the Oder at Berlin hight oSRES A1 oSRES B2 oRecent oSTAR100 2 Indicators & criteria Net benefit discounted at 2% for water supply, fish farming, water treatment & tourism at the new lake sites Water availability for industry and ecosystems Inflow for Spreewald and Berlin 5. Adjusting measures in the Spree-Havel basin

22 Net benefit ______________________________ Water availability ____________ Inflow __________ water supply Fish farming water treatment tourism at the new lake sites industry ecosystems Spreewald Berlin Mean rank Ranking 1) Recent basis STAR100 2) recent accelerated flooding STAR recent reduced ditches STAR recent Oder BrB STAR recent Oder Bln STAR ) strategy is the better the lower the rank (1- best, 5-worst) 2) analysis across all 100 realisations of the scenario 4 Evaluation 1 Scenario 2 Indicators & criteria 3 Impact Of course, sensitive to suggested discount rate ! 5. Adjusting measures in the Spree-Havel basin 1 Scenario 3 Impact 4 Evaluation 2 Indicators & criteria

23 Project I: Integration und -coordination Integrative Methodological Approach GLOWA-Elbe (IMA) Regional actors, decision bodies Frame of Development Project II: Regionalisation of Global Change Global Change Management level Project V: Cross conflict field scenario analysis Management- options Impact- analysis Evaluation Project IV: Surface Water Quality Nutrient entry Cost-efficiency analysis Eco- hydrological Indicators Socio- economic Indicators Project III: Surface Water Availability Run off regulation Multi-criteria analysis Eco- hydrological Indicators Socio- economic Indicators Project advisory board Severe water shortages at Berlin after 2030 during the summer month. Adaptation: Accelerated flooding of abandoned coal pits, Earlier introduction of water saving technologies, Longer Mining (?). Climate drying might continue. Nitrogen entry to the Elbe river and finally to the North Sea is robust to climate change. Management strategies that reduce the nitrogen surplus of agricultural land are needed. Vattenfall Europe (for water availability) and Agriculture (for water quality) are key regional actors for matching sustainability standards and adjusting to global change ! IMA feasible concept for distributed global change research. Conclusion

24 Nitrogen entry to the Elbe river and finally to the North Sea seems to be robust to climate change. Management strategies that reduce the nitrogen surplus of agricultural land are needed. Surface water regulation Water quality Severe water shortages at Berlin during the summer month after 2030 due to: Finishing brown coal mining and Decreasing precipitations. Adaptation by: Accelerated flooding of abandoned coal pits, Longer Mining at a moderate extend, which stabilizes the surface site of the regional water cycle (at the cost of local groundwater resources in Lusatia). Summary

25 Thank You For Your Attention!


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