Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

The Arctic in the Anthropocene Emerging Research Questions Stephanie Pfirman and Henry Huntington Committee Co-Chairs April 28, 2014 Study sponsors: DOE,

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "The Arctic in the Anthropocene Emerging Research Questions Stephanie Pfirman and Henry Huntington Committee Co-Chairs April 28, 2014 Study sponsors: DOE,"— Presentation transcript:

1 The Arctic in the Anthropocene Emerging Research Questions Stephanie Pfirman and Henry Huntington Committee Co-Chairs April 28, 2014 Study sponsors: DOE, NASA, NOAA, NSF, Smithsonian, USARC Photo credit: P. Spector

2 2 Who are we? National Academy of Sciences (NAS) is a nonprofit organization established in 1863. We were chartered by Congress during the Lincoln Administration to provide independent advice to the Nation on science, engineering, and medicine We are not a government agency. National Academy of Engineering (NAE - est. 1964) and Institute of Medicine (IOM - est. 1970) are connected institutions, expanding our breadth and depth of expertise. (National Research Council is operating arm.) Intellectual leadership comes from volunteer experts, chosen for expertise, balance, and objectivity. Committee reports are most well known (200+ reports each year) but also research grants, fellowships, workshops, & other uses of independent experts.

3 3 Committee Membership HENRY HUNTINGTON, Co-Chair The Pew Charitable Trusts STEPHANIE PFIRMAN, Co-Chair Barnard College, Columbia University CARIN ASHJIAN Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution LAURA BOURGEAU-CHAVEZ Michigan Technological University JENNIFER FRANCIS Rutgers University SVEN HAAKANSON University of Washington ROBERT HAWLEY Dartmouth College TAQULIK HEPA North Slope Borough DAVID HIK University of Alberta LARRY HINZMAN University of Alaska, Fairbanks AMANDA LYNCH Brown University A. MICHAEL MACRANDER Shell Alaska GIFFORD MILLER University of Colorado, Boulder KATE MORAN Ocean Networks Canada ELLEN MOSLEY-THOMPSON The Ohio State University SAMUEL MUKASA University of New Hampshire TOM WEINGARTNER University of Alaska, Fairbanks

4 4 1. Study Context What happens in the Arctic to ecosystems, people, and climatehas far-reaching implications for the entire planet Climate change is happening faster in the Arctic than anywhere else on Earth, causing the loss of sea ice, thawing of permafrost, and shifts in ecosystems This report connects the dots between future science opportunities and methods to meet those challenges

5 5 Charge to the Committee Summarize the rationale for continued U.S. research in the Arctic Identify key emerging scientific questions in different realms of Arctic science (both disciplinary and cross cutting) Photo credit: M. Kennedy Identify the types of research infrastructure, data management, technological developments, and logistical support needed Identify needs and opportunities for improved coordination in Arctic research Explore how agency decision makers might balance their research programs and associated investments

6 6 Community Engagement Review of published reports and articles (including previous reports from numerous regional, national, and international agencies, organizations, and other institutions ) Online questionnaire (over 300 responses) Targeted interviews (15 researchers) Anchorage Workshop (~50 participants) Ottawa Workshop (~45 participants) Photo credit: P. Spector

7 7 Community Engagement Respondent Career Stage Respondent Disciplines

8 8 2. Rationale for Arctic Research Examples of observed impacts of climate change in the Arctic from IPCC 2014 CategoryExamples Snow and Ice Rivers and Lakes Floods and Drought Decreasing sea ice cover in summer Reduction in ice volume in glaciers Decreasing snow cover extent Widespread permafrost degradation Increased river discharge for large circumpolar rivers Increased lake water temperatures Disappearance of thermokarst lakes due to permafrost degradation in the low Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems Increased shrub cover in the tundra Advance of Arctic tree line in latitude and altitude Changed breeding area and population size of subarctic birds Loss of snowbed ecosystems and tussock tundra Coastal Erosion and Marine Ecosystems Increased coastal erosion Negative effects on non-migratory species Food Production and Livelihoods Impact on livelihoods of indigenous peoples Increased shipping traffic across Bering Strait

9 9 3. Emerging Research Questions Existing Questions Those that have been the subject of ongoing research but remain unanswered or for other reasons deserve continued attention Emerging Questions Those that we are only now able to ask because they: – Address newly recognized phenomena – Build on recent results and insights – Can be addressed using newly available technology or access Photo credit: G. Miller

10 Managed EvolvingConnected Undetermined Hidden Emerging Research Questions

11 11 ERQ: Evolving Arctic Will Arctic communities have greater or lesser influence on their futures? Will the land be wetter or drier and what are the associated implications for surface water, energy balances, and ecosystems? How much of the variability of the Arctic system is linked to ocean circulation? What are the impacts of extreme events in the new ice-reduced system? How will primary productivity change with decreasing sea ice and snow cover? How will species distributions and associated ecosystem structure change with the evolving cryosphere? Managed EvolvingConnected Undetermined Hidden Figure source: NOAA

12 12 ERQ: Hidden Arctic What surprises are hidden within and beneath the ice? What is being irretrievably lost as the Arctic changes? Why does winter matter? What can break or brake glaciers and ice sheets? How unusual is the current Arctic warmth? What is the role of the Arctic in abrupt change? What has been the Cenozoic evolution of the Arctic Ocean basin? Image source: NASA Managed EvolvingConnected Undetermined Hidden

13 13 ERQ: Connected Arctic How will rapid Arctic warming change the jet stream and affect weather patterns in lower latitudes? What is the potential for a trajectory of irreversible loss of Arctic land ice, and how will its impact vary regionally? How will climate change affect exchanges between the Arctic Ocean and sub-polar basins? How will Arctic change affect the long- range transport and persistence of biota? How will changing societal connections between the Arctic and the rest of the world affect Arctic communities? Managed EvolvingConnected Undetermined Hidden Image source: NASA

14 14 Managed EvolvingConnected Undetermined Hidden ERQ: Managed Arctic How will decreasing populations in rural villages and increasing urbanization affect Arctic peoples and societies? Will local, regional, and international relations in the Arctic move toward cooperation or conflict? How can twenty-first century development in the Arctic occur without compromising the environment or indigenous cultures while still benefitting global and Arctic inhabitants? How can we prepare forecasts and scenarios to meet emerging management needs? What benefits and risks are presented by geoengineering and other large-scale technological interventions to prevent or reduce climate change and associated impacts in the Arctic? Photo source: USCG

15 15 Leaving room for new ideas and making it possible to identify new research directions when the need arises requires: Research to better assess new topics Long-term observations to identify changes and surprises without delay Flexibility in funding to be able to move quickly when a significant event occurs. ERQ: Undetermined Arctic Managed EvolvingConnected Undetermined Hidden

16 Short-term Direct application E1: Community futures E2: Wetter or drier E3: Ocean variability E4: Arctic extremes E5: Primary productivity H1: Icy surprises H2: What is lost H3: Winter H4: Break or brake H5: Unusual warmth H6: Abrupt change C1: Jet stream C2: Irreversible ice C3: Ocean exchange C4: Biota transport C5: Social connections M1: Urbanization M2: Cooperation/conflict M3: 21 st century development M4: Forecasts M5: Geoengineering H7: Cenozoic Long-termMedium-term Basic understanding E6: Species distribution Direct Application/Basic Understanding

17 Short-term Social Science E1: Community futures E3: Ocean variability E4: Arctic extremes E5: Primary productivity H1: Icy surprises H2: What is lost H3: Winter H4: Break or brake H5: Unusual warmth H6: Abrupt change C1: Jet stream C2: Irreversible ice C3: Ocean exchange C4: Biota transport C5: Social connections M1: Urbanization M2: Cooperation/conflict M3: 21 st century development M4: Forecasts H7: Cenozoic Long-termMedium-term Natural Science E6: Species distribution E2: Wetter or drier M5: Geoengineering Social Science/Natural Science

18 H6: Abrupt change Short-term Global E1: Community futures E2: Wetter or drier E3: Ocean variability E4: Arctic extremes H1: Icy surprises H2: What is lost H3: Winter H4: Break or brake H5: Unusual warmth C1: Jet stream C2: Irreversible ice C3: Ocean exchange C4: Biota transport C5: Social connections M1: Urbanization M2: Cooperation/conflict M3: 21 st century development M4: Forecasts M5: Geoengineering H7: Cenozoic Long-termMedium-term Local Regional E6: Species distribution E5: Primary productivity Global/Regional/Local

19 Information CooperationHuman Capacity Operations Observations Investment Strategies 4. Meeting the Challenges

20 20 Meeting the Challenges Maintaining and Building Operational Capacity Mobile Platforms Fixed Platforms and Systems Remote Sensing Sensors Power and Communication Models in Prediction, Projection, and ReAnalyses Partnerships with Industry Sustaining Long-Term Observations Rationale for Long-Term Observations Coordinating Long-Term Observation Efforts Photo credit: S. Roberts

21 21 Meeting the Challenges Enhancing Cooperation Interagency, International, Interdisciplinary, Intersectoral, Social Media Managing and Sharing Information Preserving the Legacy of Research through Data Preservation and Dissemination Creating a Culture of Data Preservation and Sharing Infrastructure to Ensure Data Flows from Observation to Users, Stakeholders, and Archives Data Visualization and Analysis Growing Human Capacity Training Young Scientists Community Engagement Image source: Arctic Collaborative Environment Photo credit: H. Huntington

22 22 Meeting the Challenges Investing in Research Comprehensive Systems and Synthesis Research Non-Steady-State Research Social Sciences and Human Capacity Stakeholder-Initiated Research International Funding Cooperation Long-Term Observations Photo source: NOAA

23 23 5. Building Knowledge and Solving Problems Enhance the ways in which we make use of Arctic research Foster collaboration, especially with decision-makers Manage change to the best of our abilities Study what exists, what is emerging, and what awaits us in the Arctic Photo credit: M. Kennedy


Download ppt "The Arctic in the Anthropocene Emerging Research Questions Stephanie Pfirman and Henry Huntington Committee Co-Chairs April 28, 2014 Study sponsors: DOE,"

Similar presentations


Ads by Google