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Hydropower Flashpoints and Water Security Challenges in Central Asia Bakhtiyor Mukhammadiev US Embassy Tashkent These slides are personal opinion only.

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Presentation on theme: "Hydropower Flashpoints and Water Security Challenges in Central Asia Bakhtiyor Mukhammadiev US Embassy Tashkent These slides are personal opinion only."— Presentation transcript:

1 Hydropower Flashpoints and Water Security Challenges in Central Asia Bakhtiyor Mukhammadiev US Embassy Tashkent These slides are personal opinion only. They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the U.S. Government.

2 Central Asian ESTH News Tajikistan: Water Is Weapon In Uzbek Electricity Talks 01/21/2009 Battle Lines Drawn In Central Asian Water Dispute 04/19/2006 Thaw in Tajik-Uzbek Relations 03/12/2009 Tajikistan Warns Of Possible Water Shortage Crisis 01/21/2009 Tajikistan Offended By Russian Leader's Remarks On Water Use In Region 02/11/2008 Uzbekistan Will Halve Energy To Tajikistan 02/12/2010 Regional Politics Get In Way of Bringing Power to the People 03/03/2007 World Bank Group Statement on Water- Energy in Central Asia 03/11/2010 Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Build Hydro Power Station, Despite Uzbekistans Objection 04/12/2009 Tajik President Asks UN to Help Solve Central Asias Water Problem 04/15/2007 Examination of Allies: What Side of the Fence will Moscow Take in the Water Dispute? 04/22/2006

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4 The Amu-Darya River Basin

5 The Syr-Darya River Basin

6 Total water resources: 116 km 3 /year 50% 25% 2% 1% 10% 5% / 12% 52% 20% 10% 11% 5%

7 Central Asia Statistics CountriesPopulation (10 6 ) (2009) GDP (10 9 USD) (2009) Dependence on trans- boundary waters (%) Energy Security (%) Food Security (%) (2010) ODA (10 6 USD) (2006) Military Spending (10 9 USD) (2007) Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Upstream Kazakhstan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Downstream Central Asia

8 New dimensions of regional security in Central Asia Environ -mental Security Food Security Energy Security 90% and 95% of energy in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan come from hydro Environmental refugees (Environment and Security Initiative) Food security/Water scarcity/Access to Water/Pro- poor Irrigation Water Security Water security is a common feature

9 Understanding Central Asia HISTORYLEGACYRELIGION POLITICSSECURITYGEOPOLITICS ECONOMICS NATION-BUILDING

10 Understanding Water in Central Asia Resource sovereignty Crumbling infrastructurePlanned Projects Access to waterEnvironmental security Drought & floodsRivalry Water for AfghanistanClimate changeDeclaratory regionalismEnergy security

11 Aral Sea (N/A) Natural losses (6.5 km 3 =5%) Total withdrawals (120 km 3 =93%) Irrigation, 90% Industry, 5.4% Drinking, 3.2% Env. flow, 1.4% Amu-Darya and Syr- Darya Rivers (116 km 3 ) Groundwater (13 km 3 ) Total (129 km 3 =100%) Return water 33 km 3 =29% Discharged into depressions (10 km 3 =30%) Back to rivers (18 km 3 =55%) Reused water (5 km 3 =15%) Aral Sea Basin Water Balance

12 Central Asian Water Related Agreements BWO Syr- Darya UDC Energy Irrigation-energy trade-offs Agreement on Use of Water and Energy Resources of Syr- Darya Basin Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan 04/17/1998 Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan TM Ministry of Water, UZ Ministry of Ag and Water 50/50 division of Amu-Darya flow at Kerki river post Agreement on Cooperation in Water Management Issues Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan 01/16/1996 Charjev, Turkmenistan ICAS/IFASSustainable development; obligation to cooperate Agreement on Joint Activities to Address the Aral Sea Issues Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan 03/26/1993 Kyzylorda, Kazakhstan ICWC; BWO Amu-Darya; BWO Syr- Darya Institutions Soviet time water allocation rules prevail; joint decision making; not to cause harm Governing Rules Agreement on Cooperation in Management of Use and Protection of Water Resources of Interstate Sources Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan 02/18/1992 Almaty, Kazakhstan TitlePartiesDate/place

13 Central Asian Regional Institutions HEADS OF STATE COUNCIL International Fund to Save the Aral Sea (IFAS) President EC IFAS Branch in Nukus, Uzbekistan EC IFAS Branch in Kyzylorda, Kazakhstan EC IFAS Branch in Dashauz, Turkmenistan Interstate Commission for Water Coordination Scientific- Information Center (Tashkent) BWO Syr-Darya (Tashkent) BWO Amu-Darya (Urgench) Interstate Commission for Sustainable Development SecretariatScientific Information Center (Ashgabat) IFAS Board of Directors IFAS Executive Committee (Almaty)

14 TAJIKISTAN AFGHANISTAN UZBEKISTAN NUREK Status: Under construction Purpose: Hydropower, irrigation Volume: 13 km3 Capacity: 3600 MW Cost: Billion USD Status: Under construction Purpose: Hydropower Duration: Capacity: MW Cost: 650 and 182 Million USD SANGTUDA 1 & 2 Status: Proposed Purpose: Hydropower, irrigation Volume: 17.6 km3 Capacity: 4000 MW Cost: 3.2 Billion USD DASHTIJUM ROGHUN Baipaza Sangtuda-1 Sangtuda-2 Golovnaya Perepadnaya Tsentralnaya Shurob ROGHUN DASHTIJUM TURKMENISTAN

15 Kambarata I&II Projects in KG Purpose: Hydropower Volume: 4.7 km 3 Duration: Capacity: MW Cost: 2.2 Billion USD Status: Under construction Unilateral developments Syr-Darya Basin: Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan Fergana Reservoirs in UZ Purpose: Re-regulation of upstream winter releases Volume: 2.5 km 3 Duration: Cost: N/A Status: Under construction Koksaray Reservoir in KZ Purpose: Re-regulation of upstream winter releases Volume: 3 km 3 Duration: Cost: 200 Million USD Status: Completed

16 Unilateral developments Golden Century Lake of Turkmenistan Karakum Canal Golden Century Canal Uzbekistan Afghanistan Iran Turkmenistan Amudarya River Karashor Depression: Golden Century Lake site Purpose: Agricultural development Duration: Volume: 132 km 3 Cost: 9 Billion USD Status: Under construction

17 STATUS-QUO According to the 1946 agreement between the Soviet Union and Afghanistan, Afghanistan is entitled to use up to 9 km 3 /yr from the River Pyanj, a tributary of the Amu-Darya. Afghanistan currently uses about 2 km 3 /yr. According to the 1946 agreement between the Soviet Union and Afghanistan, Afghanistan is entitled to use up to 9 km 3 /yr from the River Pyanj, a tributary of the Amu-Darya. Afghanistan currently uses about 2 km 3 /yr. [possible] Unilateral Development Amu-Darya River Basin: Afghanistan POTENTIAL IMPACT Full use of Afghanistans quota for water use from the Pyanj (9 km 3 /yr), fixed by the 1946 agreement, could radically change the water flow along the Pyanj and would have a significant impact on the downstream flow regime of the Amu-Darya. PROPOSED PROJECTS Proposed 15% expansion of irrigated lands in the northern Afghanistan region, which contribute to the Amudarya flow, may require an increase of withdrawals by 6 km 3 /yr. Proposed 15% expansion of irrigated lands in the northern Afghanistan region, which contribute to the Amudarya flow, may require an increase of withdrawals by 6 km 3 /yr.

18 Riparian positions: TAJIKISTAN …Tajikistan has the right to develop hydropower potential along its domestic waterways. These include the Vakhsh River… President of Tajikistan Mr. Emomali Rakhmon, UN MDG Summit, 09/20/2010, New York …The construction of Roghun Hydropower Plant on the Vakhsh River will not harm downstream interests…the Vakhsh River is responsible for only a small part of Amu-Darya flow, upstream from the existing Nurek dam, so it cannot hold back water… …Tajikistan worried about inefficiencies in water use in downstream countries. Total surface area of reservoirs in downstream countries is more than the Aral Sea, and more are being constructed… …Largest share of Central Asian water originates in Tajikistan…Tajikistan has a vested interest in maintaining adequate water. Tajikistan is concerned about global warming and glacial melt, which affects water supply… Address by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Tajikistan Hamrokhon Zarifi at the 17th OSCE Ministerial Council Meeting, Athens, 12/01/2009 Address by the President Emomali Rakhmon at the Roghun HPP site, 10/29/2009 Remarks of President Emomali Rakhmon at the IFAS Heads of State Summit, Almaty, 04/28/2009 Address by the President Emomali Rakhmon at the Roghun HPP site, 10/29/2009

19 Riparian positions: KYRGYZSTAN …Kyrgyzstan is interested in rational utilization of water resources, in raising its investment potential [for hydropower projects], environmental safety and development of alternative energy sources, implementation of regional hydropower projects under the CASAREM, and primarily in the construction of transmission lines Kyrgyzstan- Tajikistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan… …in such a difficult time for Kyrgyzstan, a launching of the first hydro-generator of Kambarata HPP-1 is a historic event for the country. Construction and launch of this HPP demonstrates the power of our country, and we do not intend to abandon the constructions of Kambarata-2 and Kambarata-1…We will be able to live well in both winter and summer, and are increasing our [electricity] export potential…Of course, we will cooperate on this plan with Uzbekistan… Remarks of Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kyrgyz Republic Mr. Ruslan Kazakbaev, UN MDG Summit, 09/27/2010, New York Remarks of President Ms. Roza Otunbayeva at the launching ceremony of the first aggregate of the Kambarata-2 HPP, 08/30/2010 Kyrgyzstan's acting President Roza Otunbayeva presses a symbolic red button to start the first unit of hydroelectric power station Kambarata-2, 08/30/2010

20 Riparian positions: UZBEKISTAN …New hydropower projects in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan violate existing agreements and are against to international law. Both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan must receive prior-consent of downstream countries… …In accordance with international customary law, upstream countries are under obligation not to cause significant harm and to prevent, control and reduce transboundary impacts… … …The resolution of [water/energy] problems is the exclusive prerogative of the countries in the region… the interferences of the third parties/countries in water/energy problems of Central Asia is unacceptable… …Upstream countries can save energy through electricity loss reduction programs...[or] consider building smaller hydropower plants… …Uzbekistan stands firm on the need for binding international examination of all hydropower projects on transboundary rivers…such examinations must be carried out under the aegis of UN and include independent authoritative experts… President of Uzbekistan Mr. Islam Karimov, UN MDG Summit, 09/20/2010, New York Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, 02/23/2008 Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, 04/14/2009 Address by President Islam Karimov to the participants of the International Aral Sea Conference, Tashkent, 04/11/2008 Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, 04/14/2009 Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, 04/24/2009

21 Riparian positions: KAZAKHSTAN …Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, being countries downstream of the Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers, need guarantees [offered by international feasibility studies]…It is a question of water supply to millions of people…Until the results of [international] expert testing are available, no dam should be built… …"Over time, this [water] problem may turn out very large (and) it is necessary to secure drinking water for the entire Central Asian region…Why not recall a project to divert the flow of Siberian rivers into Central Asia?… …it is important for Kazakhstan to address the issues of joint management and rational use of transboundary water resources of the [Central Asian] region through co-financing of regional projects of water management… Remarks of President Nazarbayev, Press Briefing with President Karimov, Tashkent, Uzbekistan, 03/18/2010 Remarks of President Nazarbayev, Press Briefing with President Medvedev, Ust- Kamenogorsk, Kazakhstan, 09/08/2010 Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan President of Kazakhstan Mr. Nursultan Nazarbayev, United Nations

22 Riparian positions: TURKMENISTAN …we must resolve these issues exclusively based on the universally accepted norms and principles of international law taking into account the interests of all States in the region and with participation of international organizations… …the need for mandatory and transparent independent international technical, economic and environmental impact assessment of hydropower projects on rivers at their early design stages… … Turkmenistan stands ready to supply neighbors with natural gas, LNG, and electricity. Once we solve the problem of energy, we can easterly solve the problem of water… …Turkmenistan urges the countries in the region - Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan to make a joint compensation to help [Tajikistan] resolve its energy problems, in exchange for a commitment to maintain the current level of water [Tajikistan] draws from cross-border rivers... President of Turkmenistan Mr. Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov, UN MDG Summit, 09/20/2010, New York Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov, IFAS Heads of State Summit, 04/28/2009 Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov, IFAS Heads of State Summit, 04/28/2009 Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov, IFAS Heads of State Summit, 04/28/2009 Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov at the meeting with President Rakhmon, 10/01/2009

23 Roghun designed in Tashkent by Soviet experts. Built – like Nurek – to withstand 9+ earthquake; Roghun designed in Tashkent by Soviet experts. Built – like Nurek – to withstand 9+ earthquake; Vakhsh cascade designed as a 2-reservoir system: upstream (Roghun) dam operates in energy mode, the downstream (Nurek) in irrigation mode; Vakhsh cascade designed as a 2-reservoir system: upstream (Roghun) dam operates in energy mode, the downstream (Nurek) in irrigation mode; Roghun would open up hundreds of thousands of hectares of land for cultivation in Uzbekistan; Roghun would open up hundreds of thousands of hectares of land for cultivation in Uzbekistan; Tajikistan would never harm downstream neighbors – anyway, Roghun upstream from Nurek, so cannot hold back water; Tajikistan would never harm downstream neighbors – anyway, Roghun upstream from Nurek, so cannot hold back water; Bigger problem in Central Asia is unchecked construction of new downstream reservoirs. This is killing the Aral Sea; Bigger problem in Central Asia is unchecked construction of new downstream reservoirs. This is killing the Aral Sea; Tajikistan forced to provide for its own energy needs because it is excluded from regional exchanges. Tajikistan forced to provide for its own energy needs because it is excluded from regional exchanges. Planned Roghun HPP & Reservoir on the Vakhsh River (Embassy Dushanbe) Roghun site 2008 Roghun site 2010 Nurek reservoir Nurek Dam

24 Government of Uzbekistan Expert Opinion on Roghun (November 2008) Engineering design of Roghun HPS violates international rules; Engineering design of Roghun HPS violates international rules; Amu-Daryas natural runoff plainly matches irrigation requirements (80% of the runoff occurs from Apr thru Oct); Amu-Daryas natural runoff plainly matches irrigation requirements (80% of the runoff occurs from Apr thru Oct); Roghun operation in energy mode would create water shortages downstream (22% less water on average); Roghun operation in energy mode would create water shortages downstream (22% less water on average); The dam site is located within seismically active zone; construction of the dam can provoke stronger earthquakes; destruction of the dam caused by earthquake would flood large populated areas in TJ, AF, UZ and TU; The dam site is located within seismically active zone; construction of the dam can provoke stronger earthquakes; destruction of the dam caused by earthquake would flood large populated areas in TJ, AF, UZ and TU; Large winter releases would cause land deterioration in lowlands; Large winter releases would cause land deterioration in lowlands; Reduced summer releases would cause salt accumulation in large irrigated fields downstream; Reduced summer releases would cause salt accumulation in large irrigated fields downstream; $4.1 billion/year direct economic damages from loss of grain and cotton yields, processing and fishing industry; $4.1 billion/year direct economic damages from loss of grain and cotton yields, processing and fishing industry; $146.5 million environmental damages (reduction of riparian woodlands, pastures, extinction of animal and bird species); $146.5 million environmental damages (reduction of riparian woodlands, pastures, extinction of animal and bird species); Economic damages would affect 12 million people in Uzbekistan and 6 million people in Turkmenistan; Economic damages would affect 12 million people in Uzbekistan and 6 million people in Turkmenistan; Energy regime of Roghun would worsen potable water supply to 18 million people in downstream; Energy regime of Roghun would worsen potable water supply to 18 million people in downstream; Alternative to the Roghun would be to construct small hydropower dams with daily regulation of storages. Alternative to the Roghun would be to construct small hydropower dams with daily regulation of storages.

25 World Bank Roghun Project Assessment Studies - The Five-Point Program - Consultant (Assessment) Studies The Bank will oversee consultant studies financed under IDA grant and credit to GOT, including a selection of consultants, contract negotiations and review of all interim and draft reports. The Bank will also affect direct payment to the consultants. All short-listed consultants have been selected thru ICB and are experienced in similar projects. Regional StudiesThe bank will undertake certain studies independently of GOT, funded thru Bank managed trust funds. These studies will focus on: (a) alternatives to Roghun to meet both domestic energy needs and export opportunities; (b) possible mechanisms to manage reservoir operations with transboundary impacts; and (c) verification of hydrological data and analysis. Panels of ExpertsThe Bank will select, manage and fund two International Panels of Experts that will participate in the studies and provide independent advice, guidance and quality assurance. Panel members will be well-know in their fields of expertise and will be drawn from outside former Soviet republics to ensure independence. The Engineering/Dam Safety Panel will focus on TEAS while the Environment/Social Panel will focus on the ESIA; however, the Panels shall coordinate and ensure necessary linkages between the two studies (Note: These Panels are usually convened by the Borrower) Riparian InvolvementThe Bank will facilitate a structured process for riparian involvement in the Assessment Studies, to include information exchange and access to independent experts. The specific program will be determined with input from riparians. CommitmentsGOT has committed to fully comply with all Bank operational policies and to align construction with study results; specifically as it concerns the construction of the coffer dam. The Banks involvement is contingent on ongoing GOT commitment to the operation policies and ensuring no river diversion prior to completion of studies.

26 Timeline of Water-related Institutional and Treaty Events 2010: Aral Sea Basin Program Phase III : UZ accedes to 1992 UNECE and 1997 UN Water Conventions 1998: UN Special Program for Economies of Central Asia 2001: Shanghai Cooperation Organization 2001: Eurasian Economic Community 1992: Economic Cooperation Organization 1997: Central Asian Economic Cooperation Organization 1994: Central Asian Economic Cooperation 1993: Commonwealth of Independent States 1992: Almaty Agreement: ICWC, BWOs 1993: Kyzylorda Agreement: ICAS / IFAS Collapse of USSR 1994: Aral Sea Basin Program Phase I 1998: Syrdarya Framework Agreement 2002: Dushanbe Declaration of Heads of State 1996: Amudarya Agreement between UZ and TU 2000: Chu-Talas Agreement between KG and KZ 2006: MoU between AF and TJ 2000: KZ accedes to 1992 UNECE Water Convention 1995: Nukus Declaration of Heads of State 2002: Aral Sea Basin Program Phase II 1999: Agreements on (1) Hydrometeorology and (2) Parallel Operation of Energy Systems 2001: TW Framework Agreement between KZ and CN 2006: Framework Agreement on EP and SD in CA 2009: Heads of State Joint Statement

27 Our Bottom Line: During the next 10 years, many countries important to the United States will experience water problemsshortages, poor water quality, or floodsthat will risk instability and state failure, increase regional tensions, and distract them from working with the United States on important US policy objectives. Between now and 2040, fresh water availability will not keep up with demand absent more effective management of water resources. Water problems will hinder the ability of key countries to produce food and generate energy, posing a risk to global food markets and hobbling economic growth. As a result of demographic and economic development pressures, North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia will face major challenges coping with water problems.

28 The Aral Sea


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