Presentation on theme: "DESA and other UN Partners (ECA, FAO, WMO, UNISDR, UNEP, UNCCD, UNDP)"— Presentation transcript:
1DESA and other UN Partners (ECA, FAO, WMO, UNISDR, UNEP, UNCCD, UNDP) Supporting Morocco’s Water Scarcity and Drought Management and Mitigation PlanDESA and other UN Partners (ECA, FAO, WMO, UNISDR, UNEP, UNCCD, UNDP)
2Outline 1 Morocco Water Scarcity and Drought Challenges 2Existing Water Scarcity and Drought Programs and Gaps3The Capacity Building Project on Water Scarcity and Drought Preparedness and Mitigation Plan-A Case for MoroccoWhy Morocco was chosen as one of the five pilot countries?What Morocco have done toward water scarcity and drought management? What are the gaps?How will the DESA project help Morocco to enhance its capacity of managing water scarcity and drought.
3Morocco is considered as a freshwater scarcity country The map shows that in the standard of freshwater availability per capita, Morocco is considered as a freshwater scarcity country.Most experts consider a 1,000 cubic meters per capita per year is water shortage warning line.Morocco is 905 cubic meters in 2011.(http://wdi.worldbank.org/table/3.5)
4The map shows Morocco is a country of physical water scarcity, which means water resources development is approaching or has exceeded sustainable limits.
5Water resources are over exploited in Morocco The map shows that in the Global Water Stress Indicator (WSI) for major water basins, the water basins in Morocco are considered Over Exploited.All this indicators show the Morocco government that the valuable water resources should be better managed andand to develop mitigation plan accordingly.
6By 2025, about 35 percent of the population will be below the absolute scarcity threshold of 500 m3/person/year2025 Morocco is to become a "chronically water-stressed"country (Bzioui, 2000)
7Morocco Drought Statistics Morocco is highly susceptible to long periods (one to six years) of drought.In the last 30 years, on average, drought occurs in Morocco every 3 years, creating a volatility in agricultural production that is the main constraint on expansion in the sector.Morocco historical drought statistics,Drought LengthNumber of occurrencesTime interval, years1 to 6 years8911.02 to 6 years3528.53 to 6 years9113.74 to 6 years6182.05 to 6 years4303.36 years3455.0Recent droughts at the national level1 year22 year14 year2025 Morocco is to become a "chronically water-stressed"country (Bzioui, 2000)
8The drought impacts on Morocco Source of data: "EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, University Datholique De Louvain, Brussels, Bel." Data version: v11.08Estimated accumulated economic damages for MoroccoPercentages of population affected in Morocco
9The drought impacts scale Only 15 percent of the country’s lands are irrigated, while the rest are rain-fed crops.Morocco’s 1.4 million hectares of irrigated crops consume, on average, 85% of available water resources (as low as 60 to 70% in a dry year), while 12% and 3% of resources are used for public water supply and industry, respectively.Agricultural sector in Morocco accounts for15 percent of the GDP40 percent of all employment70% farmers have no more than 2.1 ha. of land and struggle with frequent drought, in the absence of any appropriate protection mechanisms.
10Morocco’s economy is vulnerable to drought Data is generated fromMorocco's economy expanded only 2.4% in 2012, dragged down by drought-weakened agriculture sector, which was much lower than the government promised 7% growth.(http://www.ihs.com/products/global-insight/industry-economic-report.aspx?id= )The government led by the ruling Justice and Development Party, which had promised its voters 7 percent growth, later revised to 5.5 percent under the government program to which it committed itself, and which won it the trust of its allies in the parliamentary majority. The JDP subsequently proceeded to further revise its estimate of anticipated growth, reducing it to 4.2 percent during the presentation of this year’s draft budget.
11Morocco’s economy is vulnerable to water scarcity
12Sectoral water demands in some Arab countries for the years 2010 and 2025 For Morocco the projected 2025 water demand increase is about 25% comparing with 2010
13Precipitation anomalies projection Temperature anomalies projection scenario A2: This is a pessimistic scenario which describes a world where global population is rapidly increasing, with strong economic growth based on polluting technologies in a world that has become more protectionist with increasing disparities between North and South. There is continued use of fossil fuels and uneven regional economic growth.Scenario B2: This is an optimistic scenario which describes a world where the focus is on local solutions, from the point of view of economic, social and environmental viability. The world population increases in a continuous way, but at a slower rate than in A2. There are intermediate levels of economic development and technological advances are slower and more varied.Precipitation anomalies projectionCompared with the period , the decrease in precipitation will affect the entire country, especially byAccording to the most pessimistic scenario, annual rainfall will drop about 20% from now to 2050 and by 40% by 2080, except for the Saharan zone where the decrease will be 16% in 2080.The decrease in precipitation will be more pronounced according to pessimistic scenario A2. It is during the autumn and spring that the decrease in rainfall will be felt, i.e. during the periods when peaks of rainfall are normally recorded.Temperature anomalies projectionTemperature anomalies (A2 scenario): increases will occur throughout the entire country. According to scenario A2, warming will approach 3°C from now until 2080 for the 6 agroecological zones of Morocco and will reach 5°C in the Unfavourable-East and Mountain zones. This increase intemperature will involve an increase in evapotranspiration (the sum of soil water evaporation and plant water transpiration) of about 20% from now until 2050 and 40% by 2080, except for the Saharan zone (9% in 2080).FAO_Worldbank_study_cc_Morocco_2008(Source: Babqiqi, personal communication: slide presented at the WB/MAPM, FAO, INRA, DMN workshop in Rabat on 26 May 2008.)Precipitation anomalies projectionTemperature anomalies projection
14Projection of percent yield reduction, according to scenarios A2 and B2, by 2100 A: irrigated maize and irrigated seasonal vegetablesB: irrigated fruits and vegetablesC: fodder crops and vegetablesD: rainfed cereals and legumesE: rainfed wheat and barleyF: Other rainfed crops.
15Advantages of adopting Water and Drought Management Policy
16Morocco’s achievements on WS&D management In terms of WS&D management, Morocco is the most advanced country in the region.Established 1995 water law, which emphasis on integrated water resources management through better water use efficiency, resource allocation practices, and protection of water quality.Morocco provides a good example of drought monitoring and assessment by establishing of a National Drought Observatory (NDO) in 2001.Morocco is one of the Arab countries that adopted successfully the insurance approach in cereal production.A network for the development of drought early warning systems (SMAS) which was established between Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia and it is coordinated by OSS. The plan of action was launched and some activities have started
20Morocco drought management Gaps Identified • Without an independent body or unit responsible on drought management• Weak coordination between various ministries and organizations• In each drought management related ministry, there is no unit specialized and responsible on drought issues, rather the responsibilities are scattered between various sections.• Lack of standard drought management approaches• Inadequate in sharing on drought information• Weak on drought projection• Lack of comprehensive early warning system• Mitigation plans are mainly for emergency and not updated regularlyIn principle, the ability to provide early-warning forecasts of drought could be a powerful tool for avoiding many of the economic costs associated with the misallocation of resources that arise because farmers, herders, and other decision makers have to commit resources each year before key rainfall outcomes are known.For example, decisions about planting crops (including the date of planting, the seeding rate, and initial fertilizer treatment) often have to be made at the beginning of the wet season—before knowledge about rainfall outcomes is available. The economic value of season-specific forecasts really depends on the degree to which farmers can adjust their plans as the season’s rainfall unfolds. If decisions about planting and cultivation practices—and the feeding, culling and seasonal movement of livestock—can be sequenced, with key decisions being postponed until key rainfall data are available, forecast information will be less valuable. However, if most decisions have to be made up front each season, the scope for mistakes will be much larger and the potential economic gains from reliable forecast information will be greater.Reliable drought forecasts could also enable governments and relief agencies to position themselves each year for more effective and cost-efficient drought interventions. This possibility has already been realized, and several early-warning drought-systems are already in place in Africa that have proved successful in giving advance notice of emerging drought situations. However, these programs are really monitoring systems that track emerging rainfall patterns within a season rather than true weather-forecasting systems that predict rainfall outcomes before they even begin.
21The objectives of the project are: The Goals of this project are:To enhance Morocco’s national preparedness for WS&D andTo assist Morocco further developing and implementing the mitigation strategies and plans.The objectives of the project are:Raise awareness of up-to-date WS&D management tools, methodologies, and BMPs, and enhance the national capacity.Reinforce drought monitoring and early warning systems in Morocco (Characterization of droughts: identification and proposal of monitoring indicators).Improve Morocco drought forecasting capacity (development of contingency plans).UN-DESA will achieve the objectives through:Foster high-level political forums and technical workshops.Promote regional and international cooperation and partnership.Encourage the knowledge and best management practices sharing at all levels.Provide technical and capacity building training supports.Insofar as drought protection is concerned, a concerted national strategy should be initiated by the drought management plans at the level of all river basins, aimed at:a. Characterization of droughts: identification and proposal of monitoring indicators.b. Implementation of structural measures: diversification of sources of water supply.c. Development of contingency plans.d. Development of financial mechanisms such as insurance and funds for natural disastersMohamed Alaoui. Water Sector in Morocco: Situation and Perspectives. Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science. Vol. 2, No. 5, 2013, pp doi: /j.wros
22"Droughts are hard to avert, but their effects can be mitigated. [ "Droughts are hard to avert, but their effects can be mitigated.[...] The price of preparedness is minimal compared to the cost of disaster relief. Let us therefore shift from managing crises to preparing for droughts and building resilience."UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon's Message for 2013 World Day to Combat Desertification17 June 2013World Day to Combat Desertification17 June 2013Secretary-General's Message for 2013With the rallying call “Don’t let our future dry up”, this year’s World Day to Combat Desertification is dedicated to highlighting the global risks of drought and water scarcity. The social, political and economic costs of drought are evident from Uzbekistan to Brazil, from the Sahel to Australia. In May, Namibia declared a national drought emergency, with 14 per cent of the population classified as food insecure. In 2012, the United States experienced its worst drought since the 1950s, affecting 80 per cent of agricultural land. In 2011 drought in the Horn of Africa – the worst since the early 1990s – affected nearly 13 million people.Over the past quarter-century, the world has become more drought-prone, and droughts are projected to become more widespread, intense and frequent as a result of climate change. The long-term impacts of prolonged drought on ecosystems are profound, accelerating land degradation and desertification. The consequences include impoverishment and the risk of local conflict over water resources and productive land.Droughts are hard to avert, but their effects can be mitigated. Because they rarely observe national borders they demand a collective response. The price of preparedness is minimal compared to the cost of disaster relief. Let us therefore shift from managing crises to preparing for droughts and building resilience by fully implementing the outcomes of the High-level Meeting on National Drought Policy held in Geneva last March.On this World Day to Combat Desertification, I urge the international community to fulfil the call of last year’s Rio+20 conference on sustainable development to avoid and offset land degradation. By conserving arid lands we can protect essential water supplies, promote food and nutrition security, and reduce extreme poverty.Ban Ki-moon
23Thank you! Feel free to contact: Sami Areikat, Sustainable Development Officer Water, Energy and Capacity Development Branch Division for Sustainable Development UN-DESA United Nations, Room S nd Street New York, NY Tel Fax