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ESTIMATION OF CO-BENEFIT FROM BUS RAPID TRANSIT INTRODUCTION IN METRO MANILA USING IGES CO- BENEFIT GUIDELINE Dr. Alexis Fillone. De La Salle University-Manila.

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Presentation on theme: "ESTIMATION OF CO-BENEFIT FROM BUS RAPID TRANSIT INTRODUCTION IN METRO MANILA USING IGES CO- BENEFIT GUIDELINE Dr. Alexis Fillone. De La Salle University-Manila."— Presentation transcript:

1 ESTIMATION OF CO-BENEFIT FROM BUS RAPID TRANSIT INTRODUCTION IN METRO MANILA USING IGES CO- BENEFIT GUIDELINE Dr. Alexis Fillone. De La Salle University-Manila Prof. Dr. Atsushi Fukuda, Nihon University, Japan Dr. Tetsuhiro Ishizaka, Nihon University, Japan Mr. Hidenori Ikeshita, Nihon University, Japan by

2 Summary of Presentation A.Potential BRT Projects for Metro Manila B.Methodology C.Co-Benefit Analysis of a Transport Project using IGES Guideline D. Application of Co-Benefit Analysis to a proposed BRT Project E.Summary of Findings/Recommendations

3 High level of service at low cost Less boarding time Equal opportunity to access Reduction of traffic accidents Reduction in some pollutants Efficiency and customer satisfaction

4 426-km of Bus Rapid Transit routes Estimated Total Cost is P55 Billion Typical characteristics/design of proposed BRT lines - segregated median busways with median stations, pre- boarding fare collection and fare verification, free transfers between corridors, competitively-bid concessions, high- frequency service and low-station dwell times, clean bus technologies and modal integration Source: USAID and NCTS Study

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6 C-5 (SLEX– Commonwealth Ave.) EDSA-Binangonan Source: USAID and NCTS Study

7 Two Pilot Routes 21-km C-5 (South Luzon Expressway – Commonwealth Avenue in Quezon City) route 24-km Edsa – Binangonan (Rizal) route No. of Stations 16 stations (C-5 BRT) 18 stations (Edsa-Binangonan BRT) Estimated Cost (per kilometer) in Construction P129.33 million (C-5) P139.07 million (Edsa-Binangonan) Case Study Focused on C-5 BRT Source: USAID and NCTS Study

8 Proposed C-5 BRT (in EMME 3) SLEX UP-Diliman EMME3 – is an Urban Transport Planning software

9 Characteristics CapacitySeating = 100, Full = 200 Headway (min)3 Average speed (kph)20 No. of Stops15 Estimated length (km), one direction20.59 Table 5 Basic Service Characteristics of the Proposed C-5 BRT System Articulated bus

10 Methodology Trip Generation Trip Distribution Modal Split Analysis From MMUTIS (1996) Study With BRT Without BRT Compare results and apply IGES Co-benefit Guideline Travel time savings Vehicle operation cost reduction Accident reduction Reduce emission Traffic Assignment Transit & auto assignments (EMME3) Year 2010No BRT, Calibrated 2015No BRT and With BRT

11 Base YearDesign Periods 199620102015 Percent Public Trips77.969.366.2 Percent Private Trips22.130.733.8 Table 1 Percent of Public and Private Daily Trip Estimates for Metro Manila, MMUTIS, 1996 Base YearDesign Periods 199620102015 Percent Growth1.001.621.84 Table 2 Trip Generation Percent Growth Estimates for Metro Manila, MMUTIS, 1996 Used the MMUTIS (1996) Person-Trips OD Matrix and its estimates for design year 2010 and 2015

12 Year 2010Total Daily OD Trips Peak Hour OD Trips Median Hour OD Trips Public27,021,3383,391,2331,153,695 Private11,970,4901,142,033556,568 Year 2015 Public29,317,9983,679,3131,251,803 Private14,969,0101,427,984695,967 Table 3 OD Trip Matrix Estimates Median Hour OD Trips – is the middle value of all hourly person trips in a day (24 hours)

13 Jeepney Routes in MM (in EMME)

14 Airconditioned City Bus Routes in MM Non-Airconditioned City Bus Routes in MM

15 Trip-ends estimates (2015)Person trips going towards Makati CBD (2015)

16 Limited calibration was done to obtain the results. Segment travel timesZone to zone travel times

17 Auto assignment results (2015)

18 Estimated boardings and alightings Transit Assignment Results Boardings/alightings along PUV routes

19 SLEX to UP (Commonwealth) UP (Commonwealth) to SLEX Estimated Boardings and Alightings along the Proposed C-5 BRT

20 Estimated boardings and Alightings along each BRT stop

21 Daily Estimate Pass-hrPass-km 2010 (W/out BRT)Public10,570,888.8177,806,448 2015 (W/out BRT)Public11,405,366.4192,693,048 2015(With BRT)Public11,374,452192,650,016 Reduction 2015(W/out BRT – With BRT)30914.443032 Reduction rate (W/out BRT – With BRT)/W/out BRT 0.27%0.02% Veh-hrVeh-km 2010 (No BRT)Private+Public2,503,185.648,995,448 2015 (No BRT)Private+Public3,563,637.661,720,968 2015(With BRT)Private+Public3,559,233.661,683,576 Reduction 2015(W/out BRT – With BRT)440437392 Reduction rate (W/out BRT – With BRT)/W/out BRT 0.12%0.06% Table 7 Estimates of trip characteristics in Metro Manila

22 Co-Benefit Analysis of the Proposed C-5 BRT Project Using IGES Guideline 1.Travel time savings 2.Vehicle operating cost reduction 3.Traffic accident cost reduction 4.Cost of emissions

23 Equation for Travel Time Savings

24 Vehicle Operating Cost Reduction

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26 Estimating Emission Factors (Bangkok Estimates) Air pollutants = travel distance (veh-km) x emission factor at running speed (g/veh-km)

27 Design Year 199620102015 Private Mode74.4101.20123.50 Public Mode60.081.699.6 Growth Rate (1996 = 1.00)1.001.361.66 Table 8 The value of time (Php/hr) of urban transport users (MMUTIS, 1996) 2010 Present Situation Scenario 2015 Without BRT Scenario 2015 With BRT Scenario Difference Between (Without BRT – With BRT) Time Cost (Php/year) 107,056,811,528.06166,293,592,161.26165,027,449,933.671,266,142,200 Table 10 Estimated users benefit in Metro Manila given the scenarios

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29 less vehicles on the road, hence less accidents

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32 Summary of Findings Demonstrated the applicability of the IGES Co-benefit Guideline for a proposed transportation project (C-5 BRT) in Metro Manila Although, more studies (data and research information) are needed to get satisfactory results

33 Recommendations Need to update/recalibrate the MMUTIS OD Matrix done in 1996 Develop MM models for traffic accident estimation and cost as well as emission factors of unique vehicles to MM (i.e. jeepneys) Put up a National transport database (NCTS as lead agency) Need to re-educate through training/workshop transport planners and engineers on the use of UTP softwares

34 Acknowledgment The authors would like to acknowledge the financial support provided by the Institute for Global Environment Strategies (IGES) in the conduct of this study.

35 Thank you for listening! THE END

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