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Modelling propensity to move house after job change using event history analysis and GIS Marie-Hélène Vandersmissen (CRAD, Laval University), Anne-Marie.

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Presentation on theme: "Modelling propensity to move house after job change using event history analysis and GIS Marie-Hélène Vandersmissen (CRAD, Laval University), Anne-Marie."— Presentation transcript:

1 Modelling propensity to move house after job change using event history analysis and GIS Marie-Hélène Vandersmissen (CRAD, Laval University), Anne-Marie Séguin (INRS-UCS), Marius Thériault (CRAD, Laval University) and Christophe Claramunt (Naval Academy Research Institute, France) 2nd MCRI/GEOIDE PROCESSUS Colloquium on the Foundations of Integrated Land-Use and Transportation Models Toronto, June

2 2nd MCRI/PROCESSUS Colloquium, Toronto, June 12-15, 2005 Introduction Transportation land-use modelling must consider decision-making behaviour of urban actors using disaggregate data in order to relate –Activity location, home choice, commuting and travel decision –Household, individual and professional profiles of persons Probabilistic discrete choice theory is becoming the central issue of urban and transport modelling research –Implemented using logistic and Cox regression techniques –Aimed at modelling individuals and households behaviour Need for spatio-temporal GIS for analysing urban and transport systems where –Uncertainties exist in the system (aggregation is not straightforward) Emergent behaviour occurs –Decision rules for individuals and households are intricate –System processes are time-path and location dependent Future system state depends partly on past and current states

3 2nd MCRI/PROCESSUS Colloquium, Toronto, June 12-15, 2005 Our project in the MCRI programme

4 2nd MCRI/PROCESSUS Colloquium, Toronto, June 12-15, 2005 Purpose Emergent residential behaviours of individual actors in context of profound social changes in the work sphere Long term-view in the analysis of the relationship between social changes in the work sphere and these behaviours Social changes Long-term dynamics of residential location behaviour Travel behaviour

5 2nd MCRI/PROCESSUS Colloquium, Toronto, June 12-15, 2005 Objective and Research Issues Estimate the propensity for professional workers to move house after a change of workplace –How many will move house during the following job episode? –For how long will they delay that decision? –What are the factors significantly influencing that move house decision?

6 2nd MCRI/PROCESSUS Colloquium, Toronto, June 12-15, 2005 Data: The 1996 Retrospective Survey for Quebec City Survey collecting, in one interview, information about all changes occurred over a long period of time, since their departure of the respondents parental home Spatially stratified sample of two cohorts of professional workers –418 respondents living in Quebec CMA in 1995 –Two cohorts (mid-thirty and mid-forty) 224 women; 194 men 112 women and 100 men in their mid-thirty 112 women and 94 men in their mid-forty –Reporting on significant events occurred during their life time describing Residential trajectory (every home occupied with their location) Household trajectory (each change in the households composition) Professional trajectory (each change in employer, each workplace) –Collecting dates of every change

7 2nd MCRI/PROCESSUS Colloquium, Toronto, June 12-15, 2005 Complex Evolution Processes Personal Biography Complex mix of real world phenomena Change in status Leading to at least one episode Combining facts describing a specific aspect of life Set of related lifelines using application-specific semantic relationships

8 2nd MCRI/PROCESSUS Colloquium, Toronto, June 12-15, 2005 Management of Evolution in Trajectories We developped a generic spatio-temporal data model to handle historical orderings and querying patterns of facts in order to produce flat files needed for event-history analysis Application semantics Historical ordering of facts Facts : events and episodes Location of facts

9 2nd MCRI/PROCESSUS Colloquium, Toronto, June 12-15, 2005 Spatio-temporal Query of Patterns of Facts within Trajectories We developped a query interface combining georelational GIS capabilities and temporal historical ordering of facts using ODBC links Specifying target fact Specifying time ordering Specifying patterns of facts Specifying temporal conditions Specifying duration condition Specifying spatial location condition Specifying spatial distance condition Specifying other status condition

10 2nd MCRI/PROCESSUS Colloquium, Toronto, June 12-15, 2005 Methodology: Event History Analysis Ordinary multiple regression is ill-suited to the analysis of biographies –Censoring: refers to the fact that the value of a variable may be unknown at the time of survey –Considering time varying explanatory factors Need to consider time-varying information to study the effect of job change on house moving Event history analysis can handle such a problem (survival tables and logistic regression) –The query interface enhance data restructuring needed for this kind of statistical analysis

11 2nd MCRI/PROCESSUS Colloquium, Toronto, June 12-15, 2005 Event History Analysis (Cox Regression) Survival tables are using conditional probabilities to estimate the mean proportion of people experiencing some change in their life after a significant event occurs, computing the time delay after a specified enabling event Specific conditions may influence propensity to change Requires a combination of survival tables and logistic regression to estimate the marginal effect of other personal attributes on the probability that an event occurs Event History Analysis to model specific variations of the probability of state transition through time for individuals considering independent variables describing their personal situation on other lifelines

12 2nd MCRI/PROCESSUS Colloquium, Toronto, June 12-15, 2005 Probability to move home after a job change:

13 2nd MCRI/PROCESSUS Colloquium, Toronto, June 12-15, 2005 Basic statistics 380 respondents (on 418) had a change of job or workplace at least once during during their career 411 respondents moved their home at least once after departure from parents home 1056 changes of job or workplace within or towards the Quebec CMA (321 persons) –458 of those changes of workplace were followed by at least one move house during the subsequent employment episode- stability of job and workplace –598 of those changes of workplace were not followed by any move house during the subsequent employment episode (231 persons) Number of pair of events (change of job-workplace versus moving house or not)

14 2nd MCRI/PROCESSUS Colloquium, Toronto, June 12-15, 2005 Basic variables for the Event History analysis

15 2nd MCRI/PROCESSUS Colloquium, Toronto, June 12-15, 2005

16 Descriptive Statistics

17 2nd MCRI/PROCESSUS Colloquium, Toronto, June 12-15, 2005

18

19 Empirical Results: 1. Cross-tables X 2 : 1,281 ddl:1 P: 0,258 X 2 : 0,495 ddl:1 P: 0,482

20 2nd MCRI/PROCESSUS Colloquium, Toronto, June 12-15, 2005 X 2 : 19,192 ddl:2 P< 0,000 C= 0,134 X 2 : 89,601 ddl:4 P< 0,000 C= 0,280

21 2nd MCRI/PROCESSUS Colloquium, Toronto, June 12-15, 2005 X 2 : 131,327 ddl: 4 P< 0,000 C= 0,333 X 2 =152,63 ddl: 2 P< 0,000 C= 0,355

22 Empirical Results: 2. Event History Analysis Tests of Model coeff. X 2 : 845,29 Df: 22 Sig.: 0,000

23 2nd MCRI/PROCESSUS Colloquium, Toronto, June 12-15, 2005 For how long will they delay that decision?

24 2nd MCRI/PROCESSUS Colloquium, Toronto, June 12-15, 2005

25 Discussion and Conclusion Results given by Event History Analysis : –How many will move house during the following job episode? On 418 respondents, 271 moved home after a job change (64,8%) –For how long will they delay that decision? Probability of changing home after a job change =0,2 after ~2 years –What are the factors significantly influencing that move house decision? Tenure –Co-tenant Tenant+ –Owner Tenant+ –Tenant Owner+ –Tenant Tenant+ Gender (man) + Increased Distance home job+ Number of Children- Previous home duration- Change of Home Neighbourood –New Suburbs + Fringe- –Old Suburbs- –Core-

26 2nd MCRI/PROCESSUS Colloquium, Toronto, June 12-15, 2005 Retrospective Survey –Inaccuracy of responses (limitations of human memory with elapsed time) –Memory distorsions (individuals account of the event) –But people tend to remember major events (year of residential move, job change) –Results reflect situation in 80s and 90s To the best of our knowledge, this type of application is original (residential move after a job change –Positive contribution to transportation land-use modelling (Quebec) –The query interface could be also used to analyse patterns of activity/travel decision coming from our panel surveys (Quebec & Toronto) and OD surveys –Next stage: Elaborate separate models for owners and tenants


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