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1 Chapter 4 Time Value of Money

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2 Time Value Topics Future value Present value Rates of return Amortization

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3 Time Value Basic Concepts Time lines Future value / Present value of lump sum FV / PV of annuity Perpetuities Uneven CF stream Compounding periods Nominal / Effective / Periodic rates Amortization Rates of return Amortization

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Value = FCF 1 FCF 2 FCF (1 + WACC) 1 (1 + WACC) (1 + WACC) 2 Free cash flow (FCF) Market interest rates Firms business riskMarket risk aversion Firms debt/equity mix Cost of debt Cost of equity Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) Net operating profit after taxes Required investments in operating capital = Determinants of Intrinsic Value: The Present Value Equation...

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5 Time lines show timing of cash flows. CF 0 CF 1 CF 3 CF I% Tick marks at ends of periods, so Time 0 is today; Time 1 is the end of Period 1; or the beginning of Period 2.

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6 Time line for a $100 lump sum due at the end of Year Year I%

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7 Time line for an ordinary annuity of $100 for 3 years I%

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8 Time line for uneven CFs I% -50

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Compounding $$ Growing Money to accumulate value in future Solve for Future Value (FV) Mathematical process (multiply)

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10 FV of an initial $100 after 3 years (I = 10%) FV = ? % Finding FVs (moving to the right on a time line) is called compounding. 100

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11 After 1 year FV 1 = PV + INT 1 = PV + PV (I) = PV(1 + I) = $100(1.10) = $110.00

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12 After 2 years FV 2 = FV 1 (1+I) = PV(1 + I)(1+I) = PV(1+I) 2 = $100(1.10) 2 = $121.00

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13 After 3 years FV 3 = FV 2 (1+I)=PV(1 + I) 2 (1+I) = PV(1+I) 3 = $100(1.10) 3 = $ In general, FV N = PV(1 + I) N

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14 Four Ways to Find FVs Step-by-step approach using time line (as shown in Slides 7-10). Solve the equation with a regular calculator (formula approach). Use a financial calculator. Use a spreadsheet.

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15 Financial calculator: HP10BII Adjust display brightness: hold down ON and push + or –. Set number of decimal places to display: Orange Shift key, then DISP key (in orange), then desired decimal places (e.g., 3). To temporarily show all digits, hit Orange Shift key, then DISP, then =.

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16 HP10BII (Continued) To permanently show all digits, hit ORANGE shift, then DISP, then. (period key). Set decimal mode: Hit ORANGE shift, then./, key. Note: many non-US countries reverse the US use of decimals and commas when writing a number.

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17 HP10BII: Set Time Value Parameters To set END (for cash flows occurring at the end of the year), hit ORANGE shift key, then BEG/END. To set 1 payment per period, hit 1, then ORANGE shift key, then P/YR.

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18 Financial calculators solve this equation: PV (1+I) N = FV N There are 4 variables (PV, I, N, FV). If 3 are known, calculator solves for 4th. Financial Calculator Solution

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NI/YR PV PMTFV INPUTS OUTPUT 19 Clearing automatically (shift Clear-All) sets everything to 0, but for safety enter PMT = 0. Heres the setup to find FV

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After 4 years PV = $100 N = 4 i = 10% FV = ? = $

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After 4 years, but different compounding per year Semi-annual PV = $100 N = 4 yrs x 2 = 8 periods i = 10% / 2 = 5% per period FV = ? = Quarterly PV = $100 N = 4 yrs x 4 = 16 periods i = 10% / 4 = 2.5% per period FV = ? = 21

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22 Spreadsheet Solution Use FV function: see spreadsheet in Ch04 Mini Case.xls = FV(I, N, PMT, PV) = FV(0.10, 3, 0, -100) =

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Discounting $$ Money needed today to accumulate x$ value in future Solve for Present Value (PV) Mathematical process (divide)

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24 Whats the PV of $110 due in 1 year if I/YR = 10%? 10% Finding PVs is discounting, its reverse of compounding PV = ?

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Solve FV N = PV(1 + I ) N for PV PV = FV N (1+I) N = FV N I N PV= 110 PV= $110 1

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Whats the PV of $110 due in 1 year if I/YR = 10%? Annual Compounding FV = $110 N = 1 yr i = 10% PV = ? = Semi-annually FV = $110 N = 1 yr x 2 = 2 periods i = 10% / 2 = 5.0% per period FV = ? = 26

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27 Whats the PV of $100 due in 3 years if I/YR = 10%? 10% Finding PVs is discounting, and its the reverse of compounding PV = ?

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Solve FV N = PV(1 + I ) N for PV PV = FV N (1+I) N = FV N I N PV= $100 1 = $100(0.7513) = $

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29 Either PV or FV must be negative. Here PV = Put in $75.13 today, take out $100 after 3 years N I/YR PV PMTFV INPUTS OUTPUT Financial Calculator Solution

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30 Spreadsheet Solution Use PV function: see spreadsheet in Ch04 Mini Case.xls = PV(I, N, PMT, FV) = PV(0.10, 3, 0, 100) =

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Cash Flow signs Investing $ today Outlay (invest) $ today in present to earn greater return in the future. Earn interest (revenue), plus principal PV = FV = + Borrowing $ today Take in (borrow) $ today in present to use now, then repay with interest in the future. Pay interest (expense), plus principal PV = + FV =

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Periods or Interest Rate unknown Solve for N Invest $100 today earning 10% & need $ How long will it take Solve for i Deposit $100 today. You need $ in 4 years. Whats the annual interest rate if the money is compounded quarterly?

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Periods or Interest Rate unknown Solve for N Invest $100 today earning 10% & need $ How long will it take Solve for i Deposit $100 today. You need $ in 4 years. Whats the annual interest rate if the money is compounded quarterly?

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34 20% 2 012? FV= PV(1 + I) N Continued on next slide Finding the Time to Double

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35 Time to Double (Continued) $2= $1( ) N (1.2) N = $2/$1 = 2 N LN(1.2)= LN(2) N= LN(2)/LN(1.2) N= 0.693/0.182 = 3.8

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NI/YR PV PMTFV 3.8 INPUTS OUTPUT Financial Calculator Solution

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37 Spreadsheet Solution Use NPER function: see spreadsheet in Ch04 Mini Case.xls = NPER(I, PMT, PV, FV) = NPER(0.10, 0, -1, 2) = 3.8

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38 ?% FV= PV(1 + I) N $2= $1(1 + I) 3 (2) (1/3) = (1 + I) = (1 + I) I= = 25.99% Solve for Interest Rate

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NI/YR PV PMTFV INPUTS OUTPUT Financial Calculator

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40 Spreadsheet Solution Use RATE function: = RATE(N, PMT, PV, FV) = RATE(3, 0, -1, 2) =

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Ordinary Annuity vs. Annuity Due Series of equal payments made at fixed intervals or specified number of periods. Ordinary end Annuity beg

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42 Ordinary Annuity $100=PMT$ I% $ I% $100=PMT Annuity Due Ordinary Annuity vs. Annuity Due

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43 Whats the FV of a 3-year ordinary annuity of $100 at 10%? % FV = 331

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44 FV Annuity Formula The future value of an annuity with N periods and an interest rate of I can be found with the following formula: = PMT (1+I) N -1 I = $100 (1+0.10) = $331

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45 Financial Calculator Formula for Annuities Financial calculators solve this equation: FV N + PV(1+I) N + PMT (1+I) N -1 I = 0 There are 5 variables (PV, PMT, N, I, FV. If 4 are known, calculator solves for 5th. Pay attention to inflows & outflows (signs).

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46 Have payments but no lump sum PV, so enter 0 for present value N I/YR PMT FVPV INPUTS OUTPUT Financial Calculator Solution

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47 Spreadsheet Solution Use FV function: see spreadsheet. = FV(I, N, PMT, PV) = FV(0.10, 3, -100, 0) =

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48 Whats the PV of this ordinary annuity? % = PV

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49 PV Annuity Formula The present value of an annuity with N periods and an interest rate of I can be found with the following formula: = PMT 1 I 1 I (1+I) N = $ (1+0.1) 3 = $248.69

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50 Have payments but no lump sum FV, so enter 0 for future value NI/YR PV PMTFV INPUTS OUTPUT Financial Calculator Solution

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51 Spreadsheet Solution Use PV function: see spreadsheet. = PV(I, N, PMT, FV) = PV(0.10, 3, 100, 0) =

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52 Find the FV and PV if the annuity were an annuity due % 100

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53 PV and FV of Annuity Due vs. Ordinary Annuity PV of annuity due: = (PV of ordinary annuity) (1+I) = ($248.69) ( ) = $ FV of annuity due: = (FV of ordinary annuity) (1+I) = ($331.00) ( ) = $364.10

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54 PV of Annuity Due: Switch from End to Begin N I/YR PV PMT FV INPUTS OUTPUT BEGIN Mode

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55 FV of Annuity Due: Switch from End to Begin N I/YRPV PMT FV INPUTS OUTPUT BEGIN Mode

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56 Excel Function for Annuities Due Change the formula to: =PV(0.10,3,-100,0,1) The fourth term, 0, tells the function there are no other cash flows. The fifth term tells the function that it is an annuity due. A similar function gives the future value of an annuity due: =FV(0.10,3,-100,0,1)

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Retirement problem for you Scenario Want to retire in 35 years Deposit (invest) $2500 year into an S&P 500 Index fund (which returns 12.1% annually) How much will you have to retire on in 35 years? How much cash did you have to outlay in total to accumulate that much? Solution Pmt = $2500 N= 35 i = 12.1% FV = ? = $1,104,853 $2500/yr x 35 yrs = $87,500 total cash outlay

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Retirement problem for your friend the slacker Scenario Want to retire with you in 35 years, but is ski bum & fails to save his 1 st 15 years Deposit (invest) $2500 year into an S&P 500 Index fund (which returns 12.1% annually) How much will you have to retire on in 35 years? How much cash did you have to outlay in total to accumulate that much? Solution Pmt = $2500 N= 20 i = 12.1% FV = ? = $182,231 $2500/yr x 20 yrs = $50,000 total cash outlay $1,104,853 vs. $182,231

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59 What is the PV of this uneven cash flow stream? % = PV

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60 Financial calculator: HP10BII Clear all: Orange Shift key, then C All key (in orange). Enter number, then hit the CFj key. Repeat for all cash flows, in order. To find NPV: Enter interest rate (I/YR). Then Orange Shift key, then NPV key (in orange).

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61 Financial calculator: HP10BII (more) To see current cash flow in list, hit RCL CFj CFj To see previous CF, hit RCL CFj – To see subsequent CF, hit RCL CFj + To see CF 0-9, hit RCL CFj 1 (to see CF 1). To see CF 10-14, hit RCL CFj. (period) 1 (to see CF 11).

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62 CF & HP Input in CFLO register: CF0 = 0 CF1 = 100 CF2 = 300 CF3 = 300 CF4 = -50 Enter I/YR = 10, then press NPV button to get NPV = (Here NPV = PV.)

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63 Excel Formula in cell A3: =NPV(10%,B2:E2)

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64 Whats PV of this 3-yr, $100 per yr CF Stream, 10%=I, semi-annual compounding? % = PV

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65 Nominal rate (I NOM ) Stated in contracts, and quoted by banks and brokers. Not used in calculations or shown on time lines Periods per year (M) must be given. Examples: 8%; Quarterly 8%, Daily interest (365 days)

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66 Periodic rate (I PER ) I PER = I NOM /M, where M is number of compounding periods per year. M = 4 for quarterly, 12 for monthly, and 360 or 365 for daily compounding. Used in calculations, shown on time lines. Examples: 8% quarterly: I PER = 8%/4 = 2%. 8% daily (365): I PER = 8%/365 = %.

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67 The Impact of Compounding Will the FV of a lump sum be larger or smaller if we compound more often, holding the stated I% constant? Why?

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68 The Impact of Compounding (Answer) LARGER! If compounding is more frequent than once a year--for example, semiannually, quarterly, or daily--interest is earned on interest more often.

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69 FV Formula with Different Compounding Periods I NOM FV N = PV 1 + M M N

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70 $100 at a 12% nominal rate with semiannual compounding for 5 years = $100(1.06) 10 = $ I NOM FV N = PV 1 + M M N 0.12 FV 5S = $ x5

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71 FV of $100 at a 12% nominal rate for 5 years with different compounding FV(Ann.)= $100(1.12) 5 = $ FV(Semi.)= $100(1.06) 10 = $ FV(Quar.)= $100(1.03) 20 = $ FV(Mon.)= $100(1.01) 60 = $ FV(Daily)= $100(1+(0.12/365)) (5x365) = $182.19

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Nominal vs. Effective Rates (APR vs. EAR or Eff) $100 today, 10% nominal rate compounded annually vs. semi-annually.

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73 Effective Annual Rate (EAR = EFF%) The EAR is the annual rate that causes PV to grow to the same FV as under multi-period compounding.

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74 Effective Annual Rate Example Example: Invest $1 for one year at 12%, semiannual: FV = PV(1 + I NOM /M) M FV = $1 (1.06) 2 = $ EFF% = 12.36%, because $1 invested for one year at 12% semiannual compounding would grow to the same value as $1 invested for one year at 12.36% annual compounding.

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75 Comparing Rates An investment with monthly payments is different from one with quarterly payments. Must put on EFF% basis to compare rates of return. Use EFF% only for comparisons. Banks say interest paid daily. Same as compounded daily.

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76 EFF% = I NOM M M EFF% for a nominal rate of 12%, compounded semiannually = = (1.06) = = 12.36%.

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77 Finding EFF with HP10BII Type in nominal rate, then Orange Shift key, then NOM% key (in orange). Type in number of periods, then Orange Shift key, then P/YR key (in orange). To find effective rate, hit Orange Shift key, then EFF% key (in orange).

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78 EAR (or EFF%) for a Nominal Rate of 12% (APR) EAR Annual = 12%. EAR Q =2 p/yr= 12.55%. EAR M =12 p/yr= 12.68%. EAR D(365) =365 p/yr= 12.75%.

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79 Can effective rate ever be equal to nominal? Yes, but only if annual compounding is used, i.e., if p/yr = 1. If p/yr > 1, EFF% will always be greater than nominal.

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80 When is each rate used? I NOM :Written into contracts, quoted by banks and brokers. Not used in calculations or shown on time lines, unless annual compounding.

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81 I PER :Used in calculations, shown on time lines. If I NOM has semi-annual compounding, then periodic rate is I PER = I NOM /2 When is each rate used? (Continued)

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82 When is each rate used? (Continued) EAR (or EFF%): Used to compare returns on investments with different payments per year. Used for calculations if and only if dealing with annuities where payments dont match interest compounding periods.

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83 Fractional Time Periods On January 1 you deposit $100 in an account that pays a nominal interest rate of %, with daily compounding (365 days). How much will you have on October 1, or after 9 months (273 days)? (Days given.)

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84 I PER = %/365 = % per day FV=? % -100 Convert interest to daily rate

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85 FV 273 = $100 ( ) 273 = $100 ( ) = $ Find FV

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INPUTS OUTPUT NI/YRPVFVPMT I PER =I NOM /M = /365 = per day. Calculator Solution

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87 Non-matching rates and periods Whats value at end of Year 3 of following CF stream if quoted interest rate is 10%, compounded semiannually?

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88 Time line for non-matching rates and periods % mos. periods 100

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89 Non-matching rates and periods Payments occur annually, but compounding occurs each 6 months. So cant use normal annuity valuation techniques.

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90 1st Method: Compound Each CF % FVA 3 = $100(1.05) 4 + $100(1.05) 2 + $100 = $331.80

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91 2nd Method: Treat as an annuity, use financial calculator Find the EFF% (EAR) for the quoted rate: 10 shift Nom; 2 sift p/yr; EFF% = ?

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INPUTS OUTPUT NI/YRPVFVPMT Use EAR = 10.25% as the annual rate in calculator.

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93 Whats the PV of this stream? %

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94 Comparing Investments You are offered a note that pays $1,000 in 15 months (or 456 days) for $850. You have $850 in a bank that pays a % nominal rate, with 365 daily compounding. You plan to leave the money in the bank if you dont buy the note. The note is riskless. Should you buy it?

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95 I PER = % per day. 1, days -850 Daily time line ……

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96 Three solution methods 1. Greatest future wealth: FV 2. Greatest wealth today: PV 3. Highest rate of return: EFF%

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97 1. Greatest Future Wealth Find FV of $850 left in bank for 15 months and compare with notes FV = $1,000. FV Bank =$850( ) 456 =$ in bank. Buy the note: $1,000 > $

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98 Calculator Solution to FV INPUTS OUTPUT NI/YRPV FV I PER =I NOM /M = /365 = per day. PMT

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99 Find PV of note, and compare with its $850 cost: PV=$1,000/( ) 456 =$ Buy the note: $ > $ Greatest Present Wealth

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INPUTS OUTPUT NI/YRPVFV PMT /365 = PV of note is greater than its $850 cost, so buy the note. Raises your wealth. Financial Calculator Solution

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101 Find the EFF% on note and compare with 7.0% bank pays, which is your opportunity cost of capital: FV N = PV(1 + I) N $1,000= $850(1 + I) 456 Now we must solve for I. 3. Rate of Return

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% per day INPUTS OUTPUT NI/YRPVFVPMT Convert % to decimal: Decimal = /100 = EAR = EFF%= ( ) = 13.89%. Calculator Solution

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103 P/YR=365 NOM%= (365)= EFF%=13.89 Since 13.89% > 7.0% opportunity cost, buy the note. Using interest conversion

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104 Amortization Construct an amortization schedule for a $1,000, 10% annual rate loan with 3 equal payments.

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PMT % -1, INPUTS OUTPUT N I/Y R PV FV PMT Step 1: Find the required payments.

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106 Step 2: Find interest charge for Year 1. INT t = Beg bal t (I) INT 1 = $1,000(0.10) = $100

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107 Repmt = PMT - INT = $ $100 = $ Step 3: Find repayment of principal in Year 1.

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108 Step 4: Find ending balance after Year 1. End bal= Beg bal - Repmt = $1,000 - $ = $ Repeat these steps for Years 2 and 3 to complete the amortization table.

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109 Amortization Table YEAR BEG BALPMTINT PRIN PMT END BAL 1$1,000$402$100$302$ TOT1, ,000

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110 Interest declines because outstanding balance declines.

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111 Amortization tables are widely used--for home mortgages, auto loans, business loans, retirement plans, and more. They are very important! Financial calculators (and spreadsheets) are great for setting up amortization tables.

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