The dynamics of change Inevitable change Uncertain change
Mechanistic change Where we are now Where we are going Understanding the Understanding the dynamics of change dynamics of change Having the environment Having the environment under control under control Predictability Predictability Stability Stability
Organismic change Where we are now Where we are going Change more complex - only the Change more complex - only the parameters of change knowable parameters of change knowable System in dynamic equilibrium System in dynamic equilibrium Little control over external Little control over external environment environment Cyclical process Cyclical process
Paradigmatic change Where we are now Very complex systems Very complex systems Periods of stability and Periods of stability and periods of chaos periods of chaos System in dynamic System in dynamic disequilibrium disequilibrium Multiple outcomes Multiple outcomes possible possible Where are we going?
1. While many things change, most things remain constant; avoid getting carried away with seeing temporary trends as permanent changes. 2. The future is embedded in the present; The future already exists: you only need to extrapolate from it. 3. Focus on the score of the game; Politicians and newsmakers try to bend our perspectives away from what's happening. 4. Understanding how powerful it is, not to have to be right; massive failures follow those who blindly follow a doctrine John Naisbett, 2007, Mind Set!
Mind sets 5. See the future as a picture puzzle; Don't rely on any one source to answer the whole question. 6. Dont go so far ahead of the parade that people dont know your in it; Don't project ahead of what people can appreciate. 7. Resistance to change falls if benefits are real; It's easy to overestimate resistance, in particular, to new technology. 8. Things that we expect to happen, always happen more slowly; Remember the forecasts of everyone owning a car-plane in the 1950s? John Naisbett, 2007, Mind Set!
Mind sets 9. You dont get results by solving problems, but by exploiting opportunities; Breakthrough change comes only when someone can exploit an unusual opening. 10. Dont add unless you subtract; Don't overload people with perspectives and details. 11. Dont forget the ecology of technology. Evaluate technology in terms of the nontechnical constraints. John Naisbett, 2007, Mind Set!
Pictures of the future.. Culture: A visual culture is taking over the world; Videos, attractive designs, use of colour, and visual imagery are replacing the written word as a key influence. Economy: From nation-states to economic domains; Industries are organizing globally for supply, distribution, and production rather than by nation. China: The periphery is the centre; China's economic growth will continue, to be followed by political freedom. The nation will become a global design and branding base, rather than just a source of low-cost production labour. John Naisbett, 2007, Mind Set!
Pictures of the future.. Europe: Mutually assured decline; Europe will experience slow growth, burdened with below- replacement birth rates, tough policies against immigration, and high social welfare costs. Our evolutionary era: Reservoir of innovation. The importance of new technologies will slow down while the application of technologies developed in recent years will accelerate. Biotechnology and nanotechnology are immensely slow methods of invention. Generally, technology takes forever to move into mainstream application. John Naisbett, 2007, Mind Set!
Global demography 7bn people Environmental Crisis Food and Water Security Globalisation of the economic and financial world ICT dominates the world Changing conflict patterns Greater focus on Governance Global demography 7bn people Environmental Crisis Food and Water Security Globalisation of the economic and financial world ICT dominates the world Changing conflict patterns Greater focus on Governance Volatility Paradigm shifts Discontinuities Uncertainty Complexity Obsolescence Volatility Paradigm shifts Discontinuities Uncertainty Complexity Obsolescence The global dynamics of change
The most important trends shaping our world out to the year 2030. Source: CSIS What effects will population growth, migration and urbanization have on our future world?
Context Over the next twenty years, the vast majority of the world's population growth will occur in the developing world, in nations least capable of supporting it politically, environmentally, or economically. The developed world will face its own set of challenges, including declining populations, rising aging segments, and changing migration patterns. When Columbus reached the New World, global population had reached about 500 million. By November 1, 2011, total population had increased to 7.0 billion - the majority of this growth occurring between the end of the Second World War and the present. By 2025, global population will likely reach eight billion; and by 2050 there will be around 9.15 billion people on Earth. The addition of some 2.4 billion people (7.0 billion to nearly 9.2 billion from July 2009 to 2050) to the global family will strain economic and social systems and put unprecedented pressure on the allocation of scarce resources.
Developing Countries Eight countries are expected to account for the majority (52.3%) of the world's population in 2050. Seven of these countries (India, China, Pakistan, Nigeria, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Brazil) are from what we now call the developing world. Over the next twenty years, eighty percent of population growth will occur in countries in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. The negative effects of disease only confound the numbers problem. The HIV/AIDS pandemic has plucked working adults out of their prime, leaving behind millions of orphaned children, and torn a hole in the social fabric of these nations. Countries in the Middle East and Africa also have extremely high youth dependency ratios. History alerts us to the dangers of a teeming youth population. Countries that experience instability, terrorism, and violence often have some of the youngest populations on the planet.
The most important trends shaping our world out to the year 2030. Source: CSIS What changes will we see in food, water & energy consumption/production?
Food The world is nearing a point of diminishing returns. Poor land management and the overuse of fertilizers are causing land degradation, soil erosion, and desertification on a massive scale in agricultural areas from the Amazon to the Yangtze. Degradation, on top of sharp increases in food prices over the past decade, has left many in the developing world without the land to grow their own food or the means to purchase it at market. The dual forces of rising oil prices and increased production of biofuels have exacerbated this problem by increasing the supply-side cost to farmers, in addition to diverting staple crops away from kitchen tables. Water availabilityagricultural use accounts for 70% of freshwater withdrawalsas well as biotechnology will play key roles in our ability to expand food production. Food demand is projected to grow 70-90% by 2050.
Water What is now a global water challenge will soon become a global water crisis. Almost four billion people will live in areas of high water stress by 2030 if governments and individuals do not change their habits and use this finite resource more responsibly. Currently, over 880 million people, or one out of every eight individuals, live without safe or reliable access to water. Inadequate access to water is linked to malnutrition, underdevelopment, and geopolitical instability. The scarcity problem is only compounded by the predicted rise of the restdeveloping nations like China and Indiaand their growing appetites for consumption. The affluent use upwards of 2500 litres of water per day, for their personal use and in the production of the products they buy, when only 50 litres per person are required for survival. Future water shortages could significantly hinder economic development and precipitate serious conflicts across the world.
Energy Volatile oil prices and supply disruptions have led to international spats verging on geopolitical crises in recent years. World energy demand is anticipated to grow by 45% by 2030. By that time, fossil fuels will account for 80% of our energy consumption. Modest progress made in terms of renewable energy. Aggregate increases in alternative sources of energy will be offset by high consumption of coal, oil, and natural gas driven by the astronomical rise of China and India. Together, these two countries will be responsible for over half of the increase in energy demand by 2050. Governments and private companies across the world are pouring money into energy development projects in order to keep up with domestic demand and to capitalize on burgeoning industries.
The most important trends shaping our world out to the year 2030. Source: CSIS How does the vast amount of data change how we learn and govern in the future?
Wireless laptops, media players, and cell phones are just a few examples of how technology has become an integral part of our everyday lives. An astounding 464 million cell phone subscribers live in China. As materials become smaller, lighter, and less expensive and platforms more user-friendly, computers will become even greater fixtures of our daily lives. Our world is defined more than ever before by its information economy. Communication technologies are fuelling this evolution by spreading new ideas and innovations to even greater numbers of people each day. As information technology continues to reach these individuals, they will be able to compete more directly with those in the developed world. Context
Ideas We are witnessing the growth of the "weightless economy"an economy in which knowledge and technical capacity are contributing an ever greater share to GDP. Historically, GDP was inextricably tied to manufacturing, however, developed countries today are witnessing the contraction of their manufacturing sector at the same time that their GDP is expanding. The reason for this apparent contradiction is that ideas are increasingly becoming commodities in and of themselves. The ability to use the Internet and networking tools, a receptiveness to customer demands and new ideas, and all around creativity. The "knowledge-based" economy is also turning traditional economic and legal models on their heads. While the Internet has lowered the barriers for well-meaning entrepreneurs around the globe to enter the market, it has also enabled more nefarious behaviour ranging from piracy to cyber- warfare. It is estimated that up to 95% of music downloads are made illegally.
Connectivity Communication technologies are decentralizing information, allowing individuals and companies on opposite sides of the planet to collaborate and share ideas. As Thomas Friedman put it, "thirty years ago, if you had a choice of being born a B student in Boston or a genius in Bangalore, you probably would have chosen Boston. Thirty years ago it was unlikely that anyone in the developing world, even a genius, could overcome poverty and rise to prominence in the West. Nowadays, according to Friedman, "anyone with smartphone, access to Google, and a cheap wireless laptop can join the innovation fray. As information technologies reach these workers, they will be able to compete more directly with those in the developed world. Unfortunately greater connectivity also exposes organizations, governments, and citizens to the risks of fraud and even terrorism. We have yet to see how democratic governments will regulate this new online environment to insure national security and protect freedom of expression.
Lifelong Learning It is estimated that young people currently entering the workforce will experience ten to fourteen major career changes in their professional lives. As the information economy takes root, workers will be required to refine their skills and learn new ones to remain competitive. In short, they must become life-long learners. Workers will acquire new skills at cyber-universities through distance-learning courses tailored to meet their individual needs. Today, only a minority of the population enjoys access to higher education with less than a third of Americans over twenty-five holding bachelors degrees. Even though matriculation and graduation rates have improved over the past few decades, colleges and universities will need to embrace new technologies and promote vocational training to meet the economic needs and to keep workforce competitive.
The Arabian Spring: an e-Revolution? The Arabian Spring... Political change in: Egypt; Tunisia: Yemen: Syria; Jordan: Libya and Sudan. Saudi Arabia the ultimate prize? Tunisia was fertile ground for an internet-enabled uprising. Despite a well educated population (with a median age of 24), the country had not created enough jobs for the vast number of young people obtaining secondary and college degrees. Tunisias 10 million residents and two million expatriate citizens are avid users of technology, however: 85% of the population has cell phones (5% smart phones), and roughly two million of them are on Facebook. At the time of the Revolution Twitter had a far smaller footprint, with perhaps 500 active users within the countrys borders, but who was tweeting mattered more than how many people were doing it. Actually, the events in December and January were preceded by a spontaneous campaign against government repression in May of 2010, in which people reacted to an opposition leaders attempt to start a protest march by posting supportive photographs on Facebook. But the Revolution really began in mid-December, as civil unrest broke out in the interior of the country after a young street vendor named Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire to protest mistreatment by a government functionary, but also likely as a deep expression of helplessness in the face of a lack of opportunity.
e-Revolution: Rules of politics on the net 1.Think about the ends before you think about the means; 2.Brilliance almost always takes second place to persistence; 3.Showing youre right matters more than knowing youre right; 4.Look at every channel, but go where your audience is; 5.Content is key; 6.Integrate, integrate, integrate; 7.The tools dont care who uses them; and 8.Selling an idea is very much like selling soap. Knowing when to break the rules is half the fun.
e-Revolution: Internet as a political tool 1.Ease of use 2.Access 3.Speed. 4.Reach. 5.Interconnection. This year, in most parts of Africa, statistically, there will be one mobile phone per adult. In Kenya, that equates to 20 million mobile phones where just ten years ago there were 15,000. It is an extraordinary curve when you plot it. More Africans have a mobile phone than access to a clean toilet ( Aly-Khan Satchu, 2011 ). During the tumult, vast African populations were just bystanders. The State and its paraphernalia – or rebel militias – might descend on your district every few years but, otherwise, things went on as they had. There was a single TV station to tell you what happened, and the world went by. The internet has changed all that.
Internet Users User Growth (2000- 2010) Penetration (% of Popu) Tunisia3 600 0003500.034.0 Morocco10 442 50010342.533.0 Nigeria43 982 20021891.128.9 World1 966 514 816444.628.7 Egypt17 060 0003691.121.2 Algeria4 700 0009300.013.6 Zimbabwe1 422 0002744.012.2 Africa110 931 7002357.310.9 South Africa5 300 000120.810.8 Kenya3 995 5001897.810.0 Uganda3 200 0007900.09.6 Zambia816 7003983.56.8 Namibia127 500325.06.0 Botswana120 000700.05.9 Libya353 9003439.05.5 Ghana1 297 0004223.35.3 Angola607 4001924.74.6 Lesotho76 8001820.04.0 Cameroon750 0003650.03.9 Tanzania676 000487.81.6 Congo, Dem. Rep.365 00072900.00.5 Source: Internet World Stats Internet Usage: June 2010
The most important trends shaping our world out to the year 2030. Source: CSIS How is our economic landscape changing?
General Despite the international debate surrounding economic liberalization one that is given fodder by the current global recession - it is likely that by 2025 the world will be more economically interdependent than it is today. The "BRIC(S)" countriesBrazil, Russia, India, and China (and South Africa) will increasingly become the world's major economic players with respect to both production and consumption.
The March of Globalization Globalization has forced the integration of emerging and developing markets into the global economy and increased the flow of goods and human capital through trade and investment. The benefits of integration, to both developed and developing countries have become clear in recent decades. The Eurozone's GDP is now higher than that of the United States, a development that has encouraged European nations to join the EU and countries in other parts of the world to form competing trading blocs. The Southern African Development Community and the Eurasian Economic Community serve as some notable examples. Worldwide exports have increased dramatically- they now represent 30% of GDP, up from 17% in the 1970s. International bank lending grew from $265 billion to $4.2 trillion over a 19 year period from 1975 to 1994. People are even traveling more, with 846 million individuals trekking internationally in 2006, a 7% increase from 1980.
The March of Globalization Despite any short-term hiccups, the global market, with the help of new technologies and proactive financial institutions, is expanding to include new groups of people each day. The true effects of globalization are a mixed bag. Our world is split largely between those who have benefitted from integration and those who have not. Concerns over national identity, heritage, and culture have come to the fore as more people, resources, and ideas are exchanged across borders. In countries as diverse as Italy, South Africa, Indonesia, India, and Turkey, restrictions on immigration enjoy the support of over 80% of the population. This can be viewed as a negative reaction to the effects of globalization. In this era of porous borders and complex information flows, governments are becoming more aware of security threats and strategic weaknesses..
BRIC(S) Economies If they can consolidate the conditions necessary for structural growth, by 2025 the sum of the GDPs of the BRICS economies could equal half the equivalent of the G-6 countries (United States, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, France, and Italy). By 2040, assuming strong and sustained growth rates, they could overtake the G-6 altogether. China is leading in this race to the top because of its high levels of foreign direct investment and double digit growth. Furthermore, in spite of this tremendous progress, in 2050 per capita income in China will still be around $30,000, roughly what it is today in the West. The divisions between the haves and have-nots in the BRICS countries are stark, with millions of Indians, Chinese, Brazilians, Russians and South Africans excluded from the benefits of economic integration. Eventually, resource scarcities, demographic shifts, price fluctuations, and political strife may prevent some or all of these countries from enjoying the prosperous future experts once predicted for them.
Poverty & Inequality Globalization has failed to pull the poorest out of poverty, while in other parts of the world it has enabled the development of a middle class. Disparities exist not only between countries but within them as well. The fact remains that a staggering 2.8 billion people live on less than $2 a day and the richest 10% of the population accounts for 55% of total global income. High levels of income inequality are bad for growth and are associated with many of the negative side effects of globalization, including infant mortality and illiteracy. When citizens are starving it can threaten social stability. At the same time, we are witnessing the expansion of the global bourgeoisie. When countries plug into the international system, their citizens are often able to attain better jobs with better pay. In order to find these jobs, farmers move from small towns and villages into bustling cities. This bourgeoning middle class could be the driving force behind the democratic movements of the future.
The most important trends shaping our world out to the year 2030. Source: CSIS A new security paradigm?
The shift from interstate to intrastate war and the increasing capacity of non-state actors to commit acts of mega-violence reflect how patterns of conflict have changed since the end of the Cold War. Today warfare is increasingly described as "asymmetric." Traditional military powers, are confronted by increasingly atypical adversaries non-state ideologues, transnational criminal syndicates, and rogue statesthat employ unconventional tactics in wars ambiguous in both place and time. Today, conflict is more likely to occur between warring factions on residential streets than between armies on battlefields. As before, many belligerents still fight for power and/or wealth, but an increasing number are fighting purely for ideology. Acts of terrorism have become the major vehicle for their malcontent, especially for well-organized and well-funded Islamic groups like al- Qaeda. The proliferation of nuclear and biological technologies only ups the ante for future incidences. Context
Terrorism and Transnational Crime Over the past few decades the size and scope of terrorists' abilities have become truly alarming. Terrorist organizations have evolved from scrappy bands of dissidents into well-organized groups with vast human and capital resources. This situation is forcing governments around the world to develop strategies to both neutralize these groups where they operate and maintain security at home. These individuals, or groups of individuals, operate in poorly organized cells and as such use internet technologies to spread their message and share plans of attack. Perhaps paradoxically, this disorganization and decentralization makes these groups a greater threat to the military as it is harder to detect and track them. Terrorism has also had the effect of heightening tensions between sovereign nations. After the Mumbai terrorist attacks of 2008, India and Pakistan neared war after India accused Pakistan of harbouring terrorists and Pakistan refused to turn over individuals for prosecution.
Force Transformation In the face of these new asymmetric threats, militaries around the world will be forced to adapt to keep pace with the challenges posed by non-state actors. In 2008, the US Army admitted that the enemy had changed and that it was unlikely to change back. Armed forces needs to prepare for the full spectrum of military engagements, meaning that the military must grow accustomed to modern, unconventional warfare. Military leaders will need to put more emphasis on officer development and education to better prepare soldiers for modern day threats. Today, a soldier capable of speaking the local language is often more valuable than a soldier that can drive a tank. All the while, the military must maintain its technological edge. The proliferation of cheap but sophisticated military technologies to enemy combatants is making this more difficult. The military will need to develop new technologies that are not only deadly but precise and adaptable to different theatre's.
The most important trends shaping our world out to the year 2030. Source: CSIS The Future of Global Governance
Context We have entered a new period in governancefrom the Westphalian nation-state system, we now live in a world where true power lies beyond the hands of traditional government. The previous revolutions will test the mettle of our leaders as they seek innovative solutions to address these myriad problems. Strategic coalitions consisting of governments, corporations, NGOs, and academic institutions will need to be stood up in order to mount an effective response and to capitalize on important opportunities.
Corporate Citizenship Corporate citizenship expresses the conviction that companies not only must be engaged with their stakeholders but are themselves stakeholders alongside governments and civil society. In 2008, the revenue of the largest private company, ExxonMobil, made it the twenty sixth largest economic entity in the world, right behind South Africa. With such massive profits, consumers will to look to the private sector to remedy many of the world's ills. However, at the end of the day, most CEOs are more concerned with the bottom line than they are with shaping public discourse and it is unlikely that private companies would be involved in this work if it proved unprofitable. The financial crisis is forcing businesses to re-evaluate their practices, and in the end they may find that the most profitable strategy is also the most socially sustainable.
Civil Society With the decentralization of capital, technology, and information, civil society organizations (CSOs) and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have become important actors, filling gaps in the provision of social services, encouraging participation in local and national politics. Each of the revolutions will affect civil society the world over, some negatively, some positively. For instance, communication technology may encourage individuals to disengage from formal politics. Meanwhile, immigration may fundamentally alter the cultural and religious makeup of political constituencies and force politicians to reformulate their platforms. Some governments, confronted by terrorist threats, may implement new security measures that infringe on civil liberties. In failed states, like Somalia, where neither the government nor civil society organizations can provide for citizens, people have come to rely on international aid organizations for their most basic needs.
Corruption Corruption erodes public confidence in government institutions and encourages individuals to act outside their purview. The continuing high levels of corruption and poverty plaguing many of the world's societies amount to an on-going humanitarian disaster. Corruption, including bribery, fraud, and extortion, in low-income societies keeps people in poverty by dramatically increasing the cost of providing them with public services. It is estimated that unchecked levels of corruption would add $50 billion to the cost of achieving the Millennium Development Goals for water and sanitation alone. This is equal to half the total amount of foreign assistance paid in one year. Corruption does not just affect the developing world, however, and causes excessive waste even in more advanced countries. For example, notoriously bad corruption has created stark income inequalities in Russia
The Millennium Development Goals 1.Eradication of poverty and malnutrition. 2.Universal primary education. 3.Promote gender equality and empower women. 4.Reduce child mortality. 5.Enhance the health of pregnant women. 6.Fight HIV/AIDS, malaria and other illnesses (TB). 7.Ensure a sustainable environment. 8.Develop global development partnerships. The 8 MDG are measured in 21 outcomes through 60 indicators. The United Nations Millennium Declaration, signed in September 2000
Mega communities Dynamic, innovative and strategic partnerships between governments, civil society, the private sector, and international institutions will be necessary to address the many challenges ahead. National governments are no longer the most powerful actors, nor do traditional international governing institutions hold the clout they once did. Likewise, organizations like the UN and NATO are becoming overly bureaucratic and ineffective and may face extinction if they are unable to modernize as well. Recent pledges to expand the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) war chest may hint at an expanded role for that organization. International partnerships, like the G8 and, perhaps more importantly, the G20 should not be overlooked The problems we face today result from our interdependence. In an increasingly integrated world, seeing the big picture requires a daunting breadth and depth of knowledge. Those leaders able to bridge these gaps will enable the innovative partnerships we need to build a better future.
Only 1 in 3 rural Africans has access to an all-season road Only 5% of Africas farmland is irrigated Only 1 in 4 Africans has access to electricity Only 5% of Africas hydropower has been tapped 30 African countries experience chronic power shortages Firms pay $0.40 per kilowatt hour for back-up generators High transportation costs increase prices of goods by 75% Red tape slows freight movement to less than 10 km an hour 30% of African infrastructure needs rehabilitation Africa is unlikely to achieve the Millennium Development Goals for water and sanitation Poor infrastructure cuts Africas GDP by 2% every year and reduces business productivity by 40% Africas infrastructure deficit
2012-2016 Zambia7.7 Mozambique7.7 Tanzania7.2 Angola7.1 Uganda6.9 Kenya6.7 Democratic Republic of Congo6.4 Nigeria6.2 Ghana6.1 Côte d'Ivoire6.0 Botswana5.5 Malawi5.3 Senegal5.2 Zimbabwe5.1 Lesotho4.7 Namibia4.4 Mauritius4.4 South Africa4.4 Swaziland2.3 Source: IMF WEO, Apr & Jun 11 Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
Sensemaking 1.Our university campuses are the laboratories of the society. 2.Vulnerabilities of developing government and developing democracies are often the contours of conflict on campus. 3.Diversity in society such as race, ethnicity, religion, language and political persuasion must be carefully monitored. 4.Socio-political and ideological issues will be reflected on our campuses together with the emotion and disruption that goes with it. 5.It is very important to be aware of those issues and trends and to know the actors on campus and the university environment. 6.Political progress and economic developments are more often than not bumpy roads responsible for campus turmoil. 7.Invest in understanding the electronic revolution, social media and internet as the new way of communicating.