Presentation on theme: "Toward a Clearinghouse on STEEP Surprises Toward a Clearinghouse on STEEP Surprises OliverMarkley.com 1 Oliver Markley, PhD Ver."— Presentation transcript:
Toward a Clearinghouse on STEEP Surprises Toward a Clearinghouse on STEEP Surprises OliverMarkley.com 1 Oliver Markley, PhD Ver 2.1 January, 2012 Please note: A revised version of the clearinghouse concept developed here is that of a Websalon Network for Wise Futures, described in Visionary Designs for Evolving Wise Futures (Journal of Futures Studies, forthcoming; preprint available upon request).
Outline 1.Framing and communicating wild-cards (aka STEEP Surprises) 2.A long-range outlook on critical risks and disruptive change a.The World Economic Forum (WEF) and Risk Resilience Network (RRN) reports and activities b.Three TYPE II STEEP Surprise themes not considered by WEF/RRN 3.Resilience as a key capacity 4.Clearinghouse on STEEP Surprises Appendix: The original journal article clearinghouse proposal OliverMarkley.com2
Traditional Definition of a Wild Card (aka STEEP Surprise) Wild Card – a low probability event that would have a huge impact if it were to occur Call this a Type I Wild Card
New Definition From My New Research on Disruptive Change Type II Wild Card – a high probability event (as seen by someone with relevant expertise) that has low credibility (for most other observers)
Additional Types of Wild-Cards Useful for Monitoring and Strategy Type I – Low Probability High Credibility Type II – High Probability Low Credibility Type III – High Probability Disputed Credibility Type IV – High Probability Agreed Upon Credibility
Risky Communication The Ostrich Effect OliverMarkley.com6
On the Social Psychology of Communicating Future Risks OliverMarkley.com7 See: Discounting of frightening socio-ecological crises: An "Ostrich Effect? (Research and Action Toward the Upside of Down, p157,
To Successfully Communicate Future Risks Not Being Handled by Official Leaders Provide one or more promising solutions, or approaches through which solutions might be found Dont question leadership competence or integrity Talk about how nothing is certain, open minded inquiry is always needed; emphasize provisional if- then thinking Use scenarios that look backward from a future time in which the risk was/was not mitigated successfully.
My Publications on These Topics A New Methodology for Anticipating STEEP Surprises, Technology Forecasting & Social Change (2011) Research and Action Toward the Upside of Down, Journal of Futures Studies (2011) Living Resiliently in a Wild-Card World, Noetic Now (2011) All can be downloaded from: disruptive-surprises-with-futures-research/ disruptive-surprises-with-futures-research/ OliverMarkley.com9
Three Promising Applications of the New STEEP Surprise/Wild Card Typology 1.Conventional environmental scanning and monitoring of Type II items as they gain credibility in society (or not) 2.Strategic guidance for citizen activist mobilization on Type II items 3.A Citizens Clearinghouse for systematic sharing of proactive intelligence on Type II items by futurists, investigative journalists, citizen activist leaders, etc. OliverMarkley.com10
1. Conventional Environmental Scanning and Monitoring Source: Information and the Future: A Handbook of Sources and Strategies (Wygant & Markley,1988); based on How to anticipate public-policy changes, (Molitor, S.A.M. Advanced Management Journal, 1977).
2. Citizen Activist Strategizing For Mobilization Source: Created by Tom Atlee for Democracy Now: The MAP Model for Organizing Social Movements, by Bill Moyer, et al (2001)
3. A Citizens Clearinghouse for Systematic Sharing of Proactive Intelligence OliverMarkley.com13 Graphic source: ShapingTomorrow.com
Outline 1.Framing and communicating wild-cards (aka STEEP Surprises) 2.A long-range outlook on critical risks and disruptive change a.The World Economic Forum (WEF) and Risk Resilience Network (RRN) reports and activities b.Three TYPE II STEEP Surprise themes not considered by WEF/RRN 3.Resilience as a key capacity 4.Clearinghouse on STEEP Surprises Appendix: The original journal article clearinghouse proposal OliverMarkley.com14
2. a. World Economic Forum/Risk Resilience Network Reports and Activities OliverMarkley.com15
WEF Now Moving Beyond Risk To Dynamic Resilience From Risk to Opportunity: Building a Response to the New Reality (January, 2011) An initiative of WEFs new Risk Resilience Network OliverMarkley.com16
The World Economic Forums New Risk Resilience Network (RRN) Introduced at the December, 2010 WEF Davos Conference Mission: -To create a more resilient world by identifying and mitigating complex and interconnected global risks while identifying emerging opportunities -By means of public/private collaboration among networked communities of C-Level executives, Chief Risk Officers, and leading professionals OliverMarkley.com17
About the Risk Resilience Network Online video intro to RNN by WEF COO, Kevin Steinberg at From Risk to Opportunity: Building a Response to the New Reality (January, 2011) Global Risks Meeting Report (April 2011 ) OliverMarkley.com18
37 Global Risks in Five STEEP Domains (10 year time horizon) Identified by WEF/RRN 19OliverMarkley.com Source: Global Risks
All Risks Assessed Re: Estimated Probability and Magnitude of Impact 20OliverMarkley.com
The Six Highest Rated Risks 21OliverMarkley.com
Developed Risk Interconnections Can Be Explored Interactively Online
Three Highest Rated Clusters of Risk (Detailed on p of the report) Macro-economic Imbalances nexus Illegal economy nexus Water-food- energy nexus 23OliverMarkley.com
Outline 1.Framing and communicating wild-cards (aka STEEP Surprises) 2.A ten-year outlook on critical risks and disruptive change a.The World Economic Forum (WEF) and Risk Resilience Network (RRN) reports and activities b.Three TYPE II STEEP Surprise themes not considered by WEF/RRN 3.Resilience as a key capacity for times that are disruption-prone and uncertain 4.Cooperative Clearinghouse on STEEP Surprises OliverMarkley.com24
2.b. Three Type II STEEP Surprise Themes Not Considered by WEF/RRN 1.Technocultural OptimismMultiple scientific, technological and humanistic breakthroughs cascading toward new possibilities: (a) Massively scalable biotechnologies leading to sustainable bioenergy; b) Integrative technologies leading to The Singularity and/or Transhumanism) 2.Technocultural TransformismMultiple system disruptions cascading toward socioeconomic disintegration and hopefully reform-based recovery: Insights from a) Panarchy Theorys Cycle of Adaptation; b) The Upside of Down; and c) Other sources) 3.Prophetic TransformismMultiple impulses toward ascension of consciousness, I.e.., the 2012 meme: a) Secular viewpoints; b) A traditional Christian viewpoint; and c) Esoteric viewpoints. OliverMarkley.com25
1. a) Biotechnology Breakthroughs for Massively Scalable Bioenergy A Strategy for American Innovation: Securing Our Economic Growth and Prosperity (National Economic Council, Council of Economic Advisers, and Office of Science and Technology Policy, 2011) y.pdf y.pdf Biotechnology: Toward a sustainable future (Biomechanism.com, 2011) Renewable biological systems for alternative sustainable energy production (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Kazuhisa Miyamoto. Ed., 1997) Photosynthesis or photovoltaics: which is better? (Robert E. Blankenship, et al, 2011). Summarized at photovoltaics-which-is-better/ photovoltaics-which-is-better/ OliverMarkley.com26
1. b) Integrative Technologies Leading The Singularity and/or Transhumanism Wikipedia on Singularity-related topics The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology (Ray Kurzweil, 2006) Singularity University home page Wikipedia on Transhumanism Ending Aging: The Rejuvenation Breakthroughs That Could Reverse Human Aging in Our Lifetime (Aubrey D. N. J. De Grey, 2007) More Than Human: Embracing the Promise of Biological Enhancement (Ramez Naam, 2005) Transhumanist Society home page OliverMarkley.com27
2. a) Panarchy & The Cycle of Adaptation: A New Paradigm Socio-Ecological Theory Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems (Gunderson & Holling, 2001) The Resilience Alliance OliverMarkley.com28
The Cycle of Adaptation from Panarchy Theory OliverMarkley.com29 Source: Panarchy
Simplified Cycle of Adaptation from Panarchy Theory OliverMarkley.com30
Nested Cross-Scale Interactions OliverMarkley.com31 Source: Resilience and regions: building understanding of the metaphor (Rolf Pendall, et al, Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, (2009) http: //www.ipg.vt.edu/resilience/docs/PendallR_ResilienceandRegions_v1.pdf http: //www.ipg.vt.edu/resilience/docs/PendallR_ResilienceandRegions_v1.pdf
2. b) The Upside of Down By Thomas Homer-Dixon (2006) OliverMarkley.com32 Includes a good summary of Panarchy Theory, the Cycle of Adaptation, and plausible cascading of system disintegration followed by cultural reformation.
Homer-Dixon Quoting C.S. Buzz Holling …for a variety of well-established natural systems principles, [Holling] thinks that the world is reaching a stage of vulnerability that could trigger a rare and major pulse' of social transformation. Humankind has experienced only three or four such pulses during its entire evolution, including the transition from hunter- gatherer communities to agricultural settlement, the industrial revolution, and the recent global communications revolution. Today another pulse is about to begin. OliverMarkley.com33 Source:
2. c) Other Sources: A Type II Tipping Point Toward Epochal Change OliverMarkley.com34 Source: Research and Action toward the Upside of Down (Markley, 2011)
After the Tipping Point: The Great Bifurcation OliverMarkley.com35 Source: The collapse and transformation of our world (Taylor & Taylor, 2007)
OliverMarkley.com36 After they predicted (in Americas Bubble Economy), the subprime loan meltdown two years in advance, David Wiedemer and colleagues (in Aftershock), now predict another fiscal meltdown within three years. (2005) (2010) Will this be the Next Crisis to Hit?
A Short Video that Clarifies OliverMarkley.com37 4 min. of key clips from the 150 min., 3-part BBC documentary The Love of Money Posted athttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1M7z90 Azpshttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1M7z90 Azps
Paraphrasing Alan Greenspans Comments in The Love of Money Clip The roots of this crisis are global and geopolitical. … If the subprime loan crisis had not been the trigger, it would have been something else. There will be more such crises…unless human nature changes. OliverMarkley.com38
Are We Doing Futures Research on the Titanic? OliverMarkley.com39
Recent Informed Views Worth Considering Prophets of Doom (90 min. documentary, History Channel, 2011) Are we entering a period of concatenated global crises? (Daniel Biggs, et al, Ecology and Society, 2011) Patterns of social unrest: Complexity, conflict, and catastrophe (John L. Casti, Album/Der Standard, 2011) Social-Unrest-Complexity-Conflict-and-Catastrophehttp://www.scribd.com/doc/ /Patterns-of- Social-Unrest-Complexity-Conflict-and-Catastrophe Complexity and collapse: Empires on the edge of chaos (Niall Ferguson, Foreign Affairs, 2010) Overcoming systemic roadblocks to sustainability: The evolutionary redesign of worldviews, institutions, and technologies (Rachel Beddoe, et al, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2010) ) A civilizational tipping point (Lester R. Brown, 2009) policy.org/index.php?/book_bytes/2008/pb3ch01_ss5www.earth- policy.org/index.php?/book_bytes/2008/pb3ch01_ss5 OliverMarkley.com40
3. The 2012 Meme a) Secular Viewpoints WorldShift 2012: Making Green Business, New Politics & Higher Consciousness Work Together (Ervin Laszlo, 2009) A Vision for 2012: Planning for Extraordinary Change (John Petersen, 2008) b) Traditional Christian Viewpoint Surprised by Hope: Rethinking Heaven, the Resurrection, and the Mission of the Church (N.T. Wright, 2008) c) Esoteric Viewpoints Make the World Go Away: The Gift of 2012 (Ruth Miller, 2011) Earth Changes and 2012: Messages from the Founders (Sal Rachele, 2008) OliverMarkley.com41
Outline 1.Framing and communicating wild-cards (aka STEEP Surprises) 2.A long-range outlook on critical risks and disruptive change a.The World Economic Forum (WEF) and Risk Resilience Network (RRN) reports and activities b.Three TYPE II STEEP Surprise themes not considered by WEF/RRN 3.Resilience as a key capacity 4.Clearinghouse on STEEP Surprises Appendix: The original journal article clearinghouse proposal OliverMarkley.com42
Summary: Why Resilience Is Now a Critical Need Profusion of STEEP Risks and forecasts of Perfect Storm of cascading disruption Uncertainty about which will hit first and when, but danger signs increasing ominously Proactive resilience improvement is the one positive thing to do regardless of which type of disruption will hit first or which alternative future will emerge OliverMarkley.com43 Why Resilience Now
What is Resilience? OliverMarkley.com44 Is this Resilience in Action? (p.s. add debt to his load)
From Websters Online Dictionary OliverMarkley.com45 Resilience: An ability to recover from or adjust easily to misfortune or change
Now what? OliverMarkley.com46 For example …
Reactively Adaptive Resilience… Recovery back to normal OliverMarkley.com47
Transformatively Emergent Resilience… Recovery to a Better New Normal OliverMarkley.com48 Cartoon source: by Steven Wright, in Engaging Emergence: Turning Upheaval into Opportunity, by Peggy Holman (2010)
Proactively Dynamic Resilience… Preparing for Multiple Risks OliverMarkley.com49 Source: World Economic Foundation
As Defined by the WEF/Risk Resilience Network Dynamic Resilience: Is forward looking and proactive Forecasts alternative risk scenarios Monitors current trends and defines trigger points for active mitigation Involves whole systems, both before and after a risk has materialized OliverMarkley.com50
Outline 1.Framing and communicating wild-cards (aka STEEP Surprises) 2.A long-range outlook on critical risks and disruptive change a.The World Economic Forum (WEF) and Risk Resilience Network (RRN) reports and activities b.Three TYPE II STEEP Surprise themes not considered by WEF/RRN 3.Resilience as a key capacity 4.Clearinghouse on STEEP Surprises Appendix: The original journal article clearinghouse proposal OliverMarkley.com51
(4) Clearinghouse on STEEP Surprises In light of the foregoing information, it should be obvious that new mechanisms are needed through which to bring attention to information on promising positive STEEP Surprises and resilience promotion, as well as intelligence information on disruptive change in general. In thinking about this possibility, a sequence involving at least two levels of complexity are useful to consider: 1.Initially, much could be accomplished by having a relatively simple, easy to use clearinghouse that would collect, organize and disseminate ideas from various sources on STEEP surprises, and support a listserv through which they could be discussed. Academic futures programs interested could cooperate via an ongoing scanning assignment for their students responsive to an annual or semi-annual call for Top Three STEEP Surprises (both positive and negative) that would be compiled and summarized by the Clearinghouse. Other nonprofit entities could, of course, participate in this as well. OliverMarkley.com52
OliverMarkley.com53 2.At a more advanced level, should there prove to be sufficient interest, much more could be accomplished. For context to this more advanced possibility, consider the emergence of the WEF Risk Resilience Network noted above. The proactive way it defines Dynamic Resilience (slide 52), should be a cause of joy for futurists because it signifies the active promulgation of basic futurist concepts to an elite cadre of leaders world wide. But understandably, this impressive undertaking does not focus on what are defined herein as TYPE II phenomena having high probability and expected impact, but currently low credibility. The WEF/RRNalso understandinglyfocuses on the views and needs of economic powerbrokers, tending to ignore those of citizen activists who make up the loyal opposition points of view that are perhaps most critically needing to be supported at this time if there is to be a soft landing from the catastrophic TYPE II STEEP Surprise themes described in Section 2-b-2 above (beginning on Slide 30).
OliverMarkley.com54 Needed: A more advanced type of Cooperative Clearinghouse that could provide a counterbalance the vested-interest-orientation of the WEF/RRN by offering a practical way through which futurists of all types (both academic faculty and students, professional futurists, investigative journalists, etc.), could share, assess, and talk about scanning hits and other types of proactive intelligence information on TYPE II Risks & Opportunities as a supportive resource for resilience in all sectors and levels, but especially for forward-looking citizen activists. As noted in the original journal article-based proposal for such a clearinghouse (appended at the end of the white paper), Dr. Michael Jackson has generously volunteered to make his ShapingTommorow.com online engine for scanning/networking/planning/acting available without charge to nonprofits for such an activity. It is summarized on the next slide.
Online Engine for a Citizens Clearinghouse on STEEP Surprises Online Engine for a Citizens Clearinghouse on STEEP Surprises OliverMarkley.com55 Graphic source: ShapingTomorrow.com
OliverMarkley.com56 Specific design questions next to be answered include: 1.How many academic futures programs are willing to commit to having an ongoing scanning assignment with yearly or semi-yearly submissions of priority hits, regardless of other design details yet to be determined? 2.Should the assumed level of effort be based only on pro bono volunteering; or should external start up funding be sought to enable an ambitious outreach for the Center? If the latter, what funding sources might be tapped? 3.If a consensus emerged about the importance of a complement to the WEF/RRN initiative, might one or more futures-oriented association (e.g., WFSF, APF, WFS/Professional, ODN), like to join Shaping Tomorrow, Inc. in co- sponsoring such a center? 4.Depending on answers to above questions, how specifically should the target audience be specified? What types of media and presentation formats make most sense to design initially?