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A Strategic Conversation About the Future of the New Hampshire Bar

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1 A Strategic Conversation About the Future of the New Hampshire Bar
Presentation by Charles F. Robinson Clearwater, Florida

2 Chief Justice Broderick
“I believe that when we look back at the legal landscape 15 years from now, we will barely recognize today. It would be silly to think that with technology moving at the speed of light, that the practice of law and the court system will remain largely as they are. We need to do all that we can to design the future.”






8 Tom Peters Predicts Ninety per cent white-collar jobs will disappear in the next ten years. What color collars do lawyers wear? Is there an exception for lawyers?

9 Stare Decisis- Walking Through Life Backwards

10 Change Implications Speeches, articles, and even retreats to teach how to deal with change won’t change behavior without Follow-up positive reinforcement Multidisciplinary support Framing change in a way to bridge the present with the future If your passion for change is subsumed in the tyranny of the urgent Monday morning you will hate change even more

11 Leading the Profession to a Preferred Future
If we don’t drive the vehicle to our future we will end up wherever we are taken Institutionalize search for foresight

12 Scenario Thinking Focus on the capability of the organization to
Perceive what is going on in the practice environment Think through what this means for the bench and bar Act upon the new knowledge

13 Objectives Get beyond traditional thinking that
Acts like a filter, restricting the ability to perceive new information Imprisons us with personal biases and routines within a world of recipes and business-as-usual assumptions Frames our response automatically

14 A Strategic Conversation
A chance to rehearse the future but not predict the future. Change is too complex to allow prediction. Looking for the “dots on the horizon”-signs of change and how we should adapt. Must move toward adaptive organizational learning Perception Thinking Action

15 Wired Magazine (January, 1998)
Guardians of the old order are trying their best to hold back change and preserve their power.


17 Bill Gates Warning “We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.”

18 Tom Peters “If you don’t like change, you are going to like irrelevance even less”

19 "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.“
Thomas Watson Chairman of IBM,1943

20 “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home
other than a housewife to keep recipes.” Ken Olson President, Chairman and Founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977

21 “This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.” Western Union internal memo, 1876.

22 “I’m just glad it’ll be Clark Gable who’s falling on his face and not Gary Cooper.”
Gary Cooper on his decision not to take the leading role in “Gone With the Wind”

23 “Everything that can be invented has been invented.”
Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, US Office of Patents, 1899

24 Toxic Assumptions of the Legal Profession

25 Lawyers have a monopoly on the interpretation of the law.

26 The practice of law is a profession and not a business.

27 The practice of law is a business and not a profession.

28 “What Are the Forces Already at Work in Our Profession That Have the Potential to Profoundly Transform Our Profession’s Structure?” Each Force a “Discontinuity” Examine Implications for Each Discontinuous Force

29 Current Forces Impacting the Profession
Nonlawyer competition Diminished perceived value in attorney services Technology displacement Lawyer supply exceeds demand Disintermediation- Out with the middle person

30 The Lawyer’s World is Flat
Program to run in 3 Texas Law Schools this year Focus on how practice is changing and what law students and young lawyers can do to thrive in the 21st century Business as usual not an option

31 The World is Flat A Brief History Of The 21st Century
The 10 Forces That Flattened the World Thomas L. Friedman

32 Flattener 1- 11/9/1989 Fall of Berlin Wall
Ultimately liberated all Soviet Union captive people Tipped balance of power to those advocating democratic, consensual, free-market-oriented governance Capitalism the only surviving choice

33 Flattener 2 - 8/9/95 Netscape goes Public
From PC-based computing platform to Internet-based platform Killer applications Internet browsing Netscape first mainstream browser culture for general public Internet stopped being province of early adopters and geeks

34 Flattener 3 - Work Flow Software
Let’s Do Lunch: Have Your Application Talk to My Application Work flow moved from manual work flow to Seamless interoperable work flow Seamless interoperable work flow with other companies With standard language (XML) makes e-filing possible Global platform for multiple forms of collaboration

35 Flattener 4- Open-Sourcing Self-Organizing Collaborative Communities
Bottom up, shared, constantly improved by users, available free to anyone Motive is the “psychic buzz” that comes from creating a collective product that can beat something produced by giants like Microsoft and IBM Example - Apache an open source software system, powers 2/3 of the world’s web sites Wikipedia the open source encyclopedia Linux- Top candidate to replace Windows OS

36 Flattener 5 - Outsourcing Y2K
India No natural resources Mines brains of its own by educating a relatively large slice of its elites in Sciences Engineering Medicine Creates giant knowledge meritocracy A talent factory for engineering, computer science, and software for the globe- Law? Software engineers took lead in fixing Y2K bug

37 Flattener 6- Offshoring Running with Gazelles, Eating with Lions
Every morning in Africa, a gazelle wakes up. It knows it must run faster than the fastest lion or it will be killed. Every morning a lion wakes up. It knows it must outrun the slowest gazelle or it will starve to death. It doesn’t matter if you are a lion or a gazelle. When the sun comes up, you better start running.

38 Outsourcing v. Offshoring
Outsourcing- Take specific, but limited function that you were doing in-house, eg Research Document drafting Have outsource company take those functions for you and you reintegrate their work back into your operation

39 Not certain who is lion, who is gazelle
Offshoring Takes a part of the firm in Canton, Ohio and moves it to Canton, China. The firm produces the work in the same way with lower taxes, cheaper labor, subsidized energy, and lower health-care costs Really started when China formally joined the WTO. Made China’s own competitive playing field as level as the rest of the world China agreed to follow international law and standard business practices Not certain who is lion, who is gazelle

40 26

41 Chinese looking to future as designers
May be 10 years out In 30 years will have gone from Sold in China Made in China Designed in China Dreamed up in China Car USB--MP3 Transmitter/ Car Accessories

42 “If Americans and Europeans want to benefit from the flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.” Thomas Friedman

43 Flattener 7 - Supply-Chaining
When a customer lifts a product off the shelf the cashier scans it in. At that moment: A signal is generated from the Wal-Mart network to the supplier The signal shows up on the supplier’s screen To make another of that item and ship it via the Wal-Mart supply chain, and the whole cycle will start anew Wal-Mart database is entire Internet X 2

44 Flattener 8- Insourcing
What the guys in the Funny Brown Shorts Are Really Doing UPS slogan- Your World Synchronized

45 Flattener 8- Insourcing
Not just package delivery; synchronizing global supply chains Toshiba laptops under warranty Instructions to ship UPS to Toshiba Actually goes to UPS Louisville hub for repair by UPS instead of UPS to Toshiba to UPS to customer

46 Flattener 8- Insourcing
UPS dispatches Papa John pizza delivery Nike Shoes UPS has spent $1billion since 1996 to serve any supply chain in the world

47 Flattener 9- In-Forming Google, Yahoo!, MSN Web Search
Informing is the ability to build and deploy your own personal supply chain- a supply chain of information, knowledge, and entertainment. Allows self-collaboration- becoming your own self-directed and self-empowered researcher, editor without a trip to the library. Searching for knowledge.

48 Flattener 9- In-Forming Google, Yahoo!, MSN Web Search
Seeking like-minded people and communities Google doing over one billion searches per day iPod, Ceiva, TiVo, Amazon

49 Flattener 10- The Steroids Digital, Mobile, Personal, and Virtual
Taking all forms of collaboration- outsourcing, offshoring, open-sourcing, supply-chaining, insourcing, and in-forming, and doing so in a way that is Digital Mobile Virtual Personal Enhancing each one and making the world flatter by the day

50 What Do We Tell Our Kids/Grandkids?
Only one message- You must constantly upgrade your skills “Children, when I was growing up, my parents used to say to me, ‘Tom finish your dinner- people in China and India are starving.’ My advice to you is: Kids, finish your homework- people in China and India are starving for your jobs.”

51 Become an “Untouchable”
People whose jobs cannot be outsourced Four broad categories

52 Special Michael Jordan Bill Gates

53 Specialized Work cannot be outsourced because niche not fungible
Fungible means easily digitized or substituted Lawyers in niche practices Management consultants Brain Surgeons Cutting edge computer architects Cutting edge software engineers Skills that are in high demand and not fungible

54 Chief Justice Broderick
“It is a consumer world and lawyers are often seen as fungible commodities.”

55 Anchored For those who cannot be special or specialized
Job must be done in a specific location involving face-to face contact Barber Chef/waitperson Home town lawyers with minimum fungibility Car Mechanic Plumber Dentist

56 Anchored Compensation determined by local conditions
Lawyer may outsource fungible services like research or document drafting to a legal aide in Bangalore

57 Really Adaptable Acquire new skills, knowledge, and expertise that enable value creation Skillfully and socially adaptable Able to learn how to learn May be survival skill for the anchored lawyer

58 The Threatened Those who are Not very special Not very specialized
Not very anchored Not very adaptable

59 The Triple Convergence
Convergence One- The “ten forces” converge in complementary, mutually enhancing fashion- One machine scans, s, prints, faxes, and copies Convergence Two- Move from vertical chain of command for value creation to horizontal collaboration Convergence Three- You don’t have to live in America to get good work. It’s a plug and play world.

60 How the Profession Can Cope
Rule 1: When the world goes flat- and you are feeling flattened- reach for a shovel and dig inside yourself. Don’t try to build walls

61 How the Profession Can Cope
Rule 2- And the small shall act big… One way small companies flourish in the flat world is by learning to act real big. Take advantage of new tools for collaboration to reach farther, faster, wider, and deeper.

62 How Firms Can Cope Rule 3: And the big shall act small… One way that big companies learn to flourish in the flat world is by learning how to act really small by enabling their customers to act really big. Make business a buffet for customers to serve themselves in their own way. Self directed consumer Rule 4: The best companies are the best collaborators

63 Cycles and Trends

64 Trends v. Cycles Cycle says wait it out and it will come back.
Weather Markets Trend says will not likely return to status quo We must deal with it or Let it take us wherever the trend goes Watch out for Wild Cards

65 Trend or Cycle Substantive Practice Areas Threatened Family Law
Real Estate Tax and Estate Planning PI Defense Litigation Business advice

66 Substantive Practice Areas Threatened
Family Law >70% Pro Se Rules of Civil Procedure gone

67 Pro se litigation One party pro se in 85% of all cases in District Court and 48% in Superior Court Both sides unrepresented in 38% of cases Domestic relations cases 70% one party Domestic violence cases 97% one party Report on NH Supreme Court Task Force on Self-Represented Litigants- January 2004

68 Substantive Practice Areas Threatened
Real Estate Realtors Internet

69 Substantive Practice Areas Threatened
Tax and Estate Planning Wills on-line Financial Planners, CPA Death of “Death Tax”

70 Jonathon Blattmachr Estate tax eliminated in Canada over 20 years ago
First few years lawyers busy adjusting estate plans After that Trusts & Estates practice dropped by 90%

71 Estate Tax Repeal Passed in House- Pending in Senate
What are the implications to CLE providers and estate planning lawyers? Is Canada’s repeal a model?

72 Substantive Practice Areas Threatened
House Counsel Trade Association legal advice

73 Substantive Practice Areas Threatened
PI Defense Insurance companies Tort Reform

74 Tort Reform “Economically destructive litigation”
US most expensive tort system in the world $179 billion 2002 direct costs $636 per capita 150% of amount spent on pharmaceuticals Bills pending in 20 states 11 states have passed legislation “Trends” Volume 1, Issue 3, July 2003

75 Senator Chuck Schumer, D NY
“Lawsuits have gotten out of control in America and something needs to be done to rein them in.”

76 President Bush “Lawyers walk away with up to 40% of every settlement….for frivolous suits…driving a wedge between them (doctor) and patient.” Unnecessary lawsuits drive docs to prescribe drugs and procedures to avoid lawsuits.

77 House OKs Fines for Lawyers for Meritless Suits
House Majority Leader Tom DeLay “…pestilent culture of hyper-litigation.” Congress should “take back America’s legal system from the Lords of the Ambulance Chase.” Reuters

78 Substantive Practice Areas Threatened
Litigation Sport for the wealthy Government attack on PI and Med Mal Pro se litigators

79 What is greatest problem facing the bar and its members today, ignorance or apathy?

80 Mary Ryan, ABA Committee on Delivery of Legal Services
“A lawyer is best defined as someone who provides the best services in a free market, not the only services in a protected market.”

81 Are We Really Prisoners of Nostalgia??

82 Trend or Cycle Substantive Practice Areas Threatened MJP

83 What Does It Mean For Your Practice?
Alphabet Soup M J P M D P A B P S A What Does It Mean For Your Practice?

84 2. Multijurisdictional Practice
Birbrower et. al v. Superior Court of Santa Clara County, 949 P.2d 1 (Cal 1998)

85 New Jersey MJP Arguments April 2003
“Specific knowledge of New Jersey law, or the laws of any state, is overemphasized.” “You go to the computer or have someone do it for you.” “What are we, Planet New Jersey?”

86 New Jersey MJP contd There are 60,000 New Jersey residents working in Philadelphia, and many thousands more in New York state. What is rationale to place arbitrary borders on regional practice?

87 MJP and reciprocity - breaking down the borders
The essential elements for reciprocal admission of Washington, Oregon, Utah and Wyoming attorneys in Idaho are: Graduation from an ABA approved law school. Prior passage of the Washington, Oregon, Utah and/or Wyoming bar examination. Three years of practice in Washington, Oregon, Utah or Wyoming. Good moral character. Fifteen hours of CLE Practice Procedure Ethics

88 Borderless World Regional/National reciprocity 26 states now
GATS Treaty Driver’s license approach in 5-10 years

89 Trend or Cycle Substantive Practice Areas Threatened MJP Technology

90 Law Office of the Future
A computer + a dog + a lawyer. The computer will practice law. The dog is there to keep the lawyer away from the computer. The lawyer is there to feed the dog. Dr. Peter Bishop, Associate professor of Human Sciences University of Houston-Clear Lake

91 3. Technology Disintermediation
Internet Available to Everyone Wills, Tax Return Prep On-line Like Printing Press to Church/Temple Literacy Brings New Relationships

92 The Future of Law: Facing the Challenges of Information Technology
Richard Susskind Legal Profession Will Change Beyond Recognition Three Types of Legal Service Traditional Commoditized Latent Commodity Traditional Latent

93 Susskind’s Key Questions
Likely developments in IT over next 10 years Possibilities for law practice in light of IT changes Future for lawyers and what part is the world wide web likely to play

94 Introduces the “Susskind Grid”
Transforming the Law; Essays on Technology, Justice and the Legal Marketplace- Richard Susskind 2000 Introduces the “Susskind Grid” First work tying together technology use and strategic future planning for lawyers

95 blatant trigger selection of lawyer consultative advice
Figure Today’s Client Service Chain Recognition Selection Service blatant trigger selection of lawyer consultative advice Richard Susskind 2000 C

96 from to proactive Transforming the Recognition service
Figure Transforming the Recognition element of the Client Service Chain proactive service Transforming the Recognition element of the Client Service Chain infomediaries legal audits push technology intelligent agents embedded expertise Intranet implants business-episode based blatant trigger from to blatant trigger Richard Susskind 2000 C

97 from to Transforming the Selection element of the Client Service Chain
Figure Transforming the Selection element of the Client Service Chain Transforming the Selection element of the Client Service Chain selection of adviser infomediaries online auctions virtual teams selection of source of guidance selection of lawyer from to assessment of need infomediaries selection of online service infomediaries Richard Susskind 2000 C

98 from to Transforming the Service element of the Client Service Chain
Figure Transforming the Service element of the Client Service Chain high-end, traditional Transforming the Service element of the Client Service Chain consultative advice project management document management legal research strategy unbundled services consultative advice from to online service commoditized latent market multi-disciplinary Richard Susskind 2000 C

99 selection of adviser consultative advice proactive service selection
Figure Tomorrow’s Client Service Chain Recognition Selection Service selection of adviser consultative advice proactive service selection of source of guidance unbundled services blatant trigger selection of online service online service Richard Susskind 2000 C

100 Technology Disintermediation- Trend or Cycle?
What are implications if Susskind is correct? Traditional- large firm, large client only Commodity- better, faster, cheaper Latent- may be no direct client contact

101 Trend or Cycle Substantive Practice Areas Threatened MJP Technology

102 4. Offshoring/Intermediation- Trend or Cycle?

103 Intel CEO Craig Barrett Jan-Feb 2004 Business 2.0
In space of 5 years close to 3 billion people have been brought into mainstream capitalist economic infrastructure (India, China, Russia and some Russian satellite countries) Substantially lower wages with comparable or superior education to US applicants. “Unless you’re my auto mechanic or plumber, I don’t care where the hell you’re located.”

104 Brad Hildebrandt Outsourcing to India $10 billion in next 5 years Hildebrandt offering 3 choices Consult with firm re outsourcing Several clients form captive outsourcing firm Joint venture with existing outsourcing company

105 Lou Dobbs Report 8-10% of all associates hired by large law firms will be offshore hires (as in India) by 2011. 2000 1,793 off-shore ,200 ,673 ,672 U.S. Dept of Labor & Forrester Research The new associates will take on roughly the same work as new associates handle in the firms now at less than 20% of the cost.

106 Outsourcing Hits Legal Services Star Tribune 1-16-2004
“First it was apparel workers-the working class-who saw their $10-an-hour jobs go overseas.” “Now six-figure lawyers and legal support staffs are starting to sweat.” Westlaw has test office in Bombay GE and other behemoths using Indian lawyers to supplant work formerly done by outside law firms.

107 Outsourcing Hits Legal Services contd
Forrester Research- by ,000 U.S. lawyer jobs will shift to lower cost countries Mindcrest Inc. legal process outsourcing Enhanced levels of service and a 30-70% lower cost to customer

108 “About a year ago I hired a developer in India to do my job
“About a year ago I hired a developer in India to do my job. I pay him $12,000 to do the job I get paid $67,300 for. He is happy to have the work. I am happy that I only have to work about 90 minutes per day (I still have to attend meetings myself, and I spend a few minutes every day talking code with my Indian counterpart.) The rest of my time my employer thinks I’m telecommuting. They are happy to let me telecommute because my output is higher than most of my coworkers. Now I’m considering getting a second job and doing the same thing with it. That may be pushing my luck though. The extra money would be nice, but that could push my workday over five hours.” —from posting at Slashdot ( ), reported by Dan Pink

109 No Limits? “Short on Priests, U.S. Catholics Outsource Prayer to Indian Clergy” —Headline, New York Times/ (“Special intentions,” $.90 for Indians, $5.00 for Americans)

110 Level 5 (top) certification/ Carnegie Mellon Software Engineering Institute: 35 of 70 companies in world are from India Source: Wired/02.04

111 Bye-Bye Associates? “…the kind of work now being sent off shore, and expected to be increasingly sent off-shore, is work normally done by first/second-year associates in the largest law firms -- research, legal memos, that kind of thing.


113 eLawForum’s unique lawyer to lawyer service creates a competitive market for legal representation. Outside counsel compete with fixed fees for legal work based on expertise, quality and business judgment. eLawForum’s corporate clients secure the best value among the most qualified outside counsel - buying results rather than hours. For law firms, eLawForum offers an unprecedented opportunity to win new clients and share in success.

114 John Henry- Founder/CEO elawforum
Aggregates large company legal problems and negotiates fixed-fee deals “We just saved a client $55 million in 2 deals.” “Our challenge now is to do a thousand of these deals.”

115 So Now What Do We Do? First question- Is status quo an option?
Will our guild return to those glory days of yesteryear? Are we experiencing discontinuous trends or are we merely in a cycle? “I am persuaded more than ever that the status quo is not our friend,” Broderick

116 So Now What Do We Do? If answer to #1 is no, how do we get into the change process? Role of the bar Role of the individual lawyer/law firm


118 Change or Die Fast Company May 2005
What if you were given that choice? Yes, you say? Try again Yes? You are probably deluding yourself You wouldn’t change You want odds? Nine to one against you How do you like those odds?

119 IBM Global Innovation Outlook Conference 2004
Most farsighted thinkers from around the world to come together in New York to propose solutions to really big problems

120 Global Innovation Problem One-Health Care
Crisis- $1.8 trillion/year in US alone 15% of gross domestic product Dream team of experts expected to discuss Scientific breakthroughs Technology breakthroughs

121 Root cause of Health Care Crisis Hasn’t Changed for Decades!
Medical establishment can’t figure out what to do about it. Vast majority of health-care budget for well known and by and large behavioral. Sick because of how we choose to lead our lives Not because of genetic factors beyond control

122 80% Health Care Budget Consumed by 5 Behavioral Issues
Smoking Drinking Eating Stress Insufficient exercise

123 Coronary Bypass Surgery and Angioplasty Patients
Many patients could avoid return of pain and need to repeat the surgery, not to mention arrest the course of their disease before it kills them by switching to healthier lifestyles, but 90% don’t

124 Changing Behavior of People
Not just the biggest challenge in health care Also the biggest challenge in business (law practice) Central issue is never Strategy Structure Systems Changing behavior of people John Kotter

125 “The bottleneck is located at the top of the bottle” Gary Hamel

126 21st Century Challenges Competing in a turbulent world
Being ready to respond to profound upheavals in market dynamics such as Shift from regulated to deregulated environment Entry into new practice areas Changing style of our work Mentoring Technology advances

127 Does Crisis Bring Change?

128 Does Crisis Bring Change?
Conventional wisdom says Yes What about the heart disease victims? Giving people accurate analyses and factual information about their situations? No Why do we fight what we know to be in our own vital interests?

129 Kotter’s Insight Behavior change happens mostly by speaking to people’s feelings. True even in organizations focused on analysis and quantitative measurement. Highly successful change efforts require that people see problems or solutions in ways that influence emotions, not just thought.

130 Emotional Persuasion Not taught in business schools
Doesn’t come naturally to those who pride themselves on analytical thinking Lawyers Engineers Accountants Managers

131 The Ornish Experiment- Preventative Medicine Research Center
Providing health care information important but not sufficient Need additional dimensions Psychological Emotional Spiritual

132 Ornish Program Vegetarian diet with less than 10% calories from fat.
Can reduce heart disease without surgery or drugs. Medical establishment skeptical that people could sustain.

133 Mutual of Omaha sponsored trial-1993
333 patients with severely clogged arteries Helped to quit smoking Put on Ornish diet Twice-weekly group support sessions led by psychologist Meditation Relaxation Yoga Aerobic exercise

134 Ornish Program contd Program lasted 1 year
After 3 years, 77% of people stuck with lifestyle changes and avoided bypass or angioplasty surgeries Mutual of Omaha saved $30,000 per patient

135 Why did Ornish Program Work?
Changes reason for change from fear of dying Joy of living from feeling better and thinking of freedom from pain “Joy is a more powerful motivator than fear.” Dean Ornish, MD

136 Framing Change Frames are the “mental structures that shape the way we see the world.” Part of the “cognitive unconscious” The way we know what our frames are, or create new ones, springs from language.

137 Our Frames Do we see our law firm as a
Military model with hierarchical chain of command? Family? Village? Each model would have us working together in different ways

138 The Big Challenge to Change Thinking
Our minds rely on frames, not facts Concepts are tied in the synapses of the brain and are not changed by presenting us with a fact For us to make sense of facts, the facts have to work within our concepts Otherwise, facts go in and then right back out

139 When Facts Don’t Fit Our Concepts
They are not heard, or They are not accepted as facts, or They mystify us. Then we label the fact as irrational, crazy, or stupid. The reason conservatives and liberals each think the other side nuts. Brains are working within different frames George Lakoff, Professor of Cognitive Science and Linguistics, University of California at Berkeley

140 What kind of Change Works Best?

141 Radical sweeping change works better than small, incremental change.
Important that there be some early wins with the radical change that are Visible Timely Unambiguous Meaningful

142 Nicholas Negroponte Incrementalism is Innovation’s Worst Enemy


144 Supporting Change Remember 90% of the heart patients went back to old lifestyle but 77% of Ornish’s patients stayed with the radical change Weekly support groups with other patients Attention from dieticians, psychologists, nurses, and yoga and meditation counselors

145 Is the Lawyer’s Brain Hardwired- Unable to Change?
Brain’s ability to change is lifelong Specialists’ brain may develop in ways to enhance the specialists skills but Specialization can instill rigidity Brain stimulation through continuous learning works Active not the same as continuous learning Learn Spanish or the oboe? What have you learned in the last 6 months? Self resume

146 Build and maintain your sensory and intelligence systems.
If I Can’t Predict the Future, How Can I Prepare for the Future? Peter Schwartz Inevitable Surprises Build and maintain your sensory and intelligence systems. Continue strategic conversations by discussing and interpreting the interaction of forces that might affect you. Cultivate a sense of timing How rapidly is this approaching? When could it occur? How long do we have?

147 Preparing for the Future 2
Identify in advance the kinds of “early warning indicators” that would signal a change is rapidly upon you Once the signals are identified, keep an eye out for them and be prepared to act when you observe them Use short-term scenario exercises

148 Preparing for the Future 3
Put in place mechanisms to engender creative destruction. Discard what has worked in the past but may be moribund now. What have you dismantled in the last year or two? If none, may need to get some practice in before urgency strikes

149 Preparing for the Future 4
Try to avoid denial Do not pretend that the “inevitable surprise” is not happening If the scenario is plausible and you think it would really hurt the organization, pay more attention to it

150 Preparing for the Future 5
Be aware of the competence of your judgment, and the level of judgments new situations require Move deliberately and humbly into new situations that stretch your judgment

151 Preparing for the Future 6
Place a very, very high premium on learning. Most failures to adapt are failures to learn enough in time about changing circumstances Work will be increasingly knowledge intensive

152 Mary Ryan, ABA Committee on Delivery of Legal Services
“A lawyer is best defined as someone who provides the best services in a free market, not the only services in a protected market.”





157 Dakota tribal wisdom says that when you discover you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount. © 2000 Charles F. Robinson

158 In law firms we often try other strategies with dead horses, including the following:
© 2000 Charles F. Robinson

159 Changing riders © 2000 Charles F. Robinson

160 This is the way we always have ridden this horse!
Saying things like . . . This is the way we always have ridden this horse! © 2000 Charles F. Robinson

161 Dead Horse? What dead horse? © 2000 Charles F. Robinson

162 Appointing a committee to study the horse
© 2000 Charles F. Robinson

163 Arranging to visit other firms to see how they ride dead horses
© 2000 Charles F. Robinson

164 Increasing the standards to ride dead horses
© 2000 Charles F. Robinson

165 Declare the horse is "better, faster and cheaper" dead
© 2000 Charles F. Robinson

166 Harnessing several dead horses together for increased speed
© 2000 Charles F. Robinson

167 Presentation Materials

168 Visit our Web Site Or Email Comments to
Or Comments to Presentation graphics by Wendy Presentation graphics by Wendy

169 Today’s Agenda Why worry about the future? The 2005 environment
Trends v. Cycles How to lead change and make it stick

170 How Firms Can Cope Rule 5: In a flat world, the best companies stay healthy by getting regular chest x-rays and then selling them to their clients. Typical company has components Where is firm best in class? Where is firm differentiated? Where do you have potential but don’t want to spend the money to get great? Let go of what you can outsource and focus on the core competencies

171 How Firms Can Cope Rule 6: The best companies outsource to win, not to shrink. They outsource to innovate faster and more cheaply in order to grow larger, gain market share, and hire more and different specialists- not to save money by firing more people.

172 Chief Justice Broderick
“It is a consumer world and lawyers are often seen as fungible commodities.”

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