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Contracting out Modelling Projects to Consultants Setting a Framework for Success Dr S A Joynes, Golovin, NZ.

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Presentation on theme: "Contracting out Modelling Projects to Consultants Setting a Framework for Success Dr S A Joynes, Golovin, NZ."— Presentation transcript:

1 Contracting out Modelling Projects to Consultants Setting a Framework for Success Dr S A Joynes, Golovin, NZ

2 a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling Introduction Making the intangible, tangible Making the intangible, tangible Simplifying the complicated Simplifying the complicated

3 a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling Modelling Education There is no formal academic teaching There is no formal academic teaching It is learned on the job It is learned on the job Training only by software vendors Training only by software vendors Not recognised (yet) by IPENZ Not recognised (yet) by IPENZ Guidelines, handbooks and software manuals Guidelines, handbooks and software manuals

4 a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling Modellers Expertise Based on who they worked for Based on who they worked for What software packages they have the opportunity to use What software packages they have the opportunity to use What training courses attended What training courses attended There is NO formal qualification or training programme

5 a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling Water Modelling Today Majority of infrastructure developments require water modelling input Majority of infrastructure developments require water modelling input $Millions spent of water modelling $Millions spent of water modelling Graduates thrown straight into sophisticated modelling Graduates thrown straight into sophisticated modelling Production driven NOT quality driven Production driven NOT quality driven Most consultancies have modellers Most consultancies have modellers Most Council's have modellers Most Council's have modellers

6 a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling Standards and Guidelines The New Zealand Standard for Managing Flood Risk – A Process Standard (NZS 9401:2008) (Appendix 2). The New Zealand Standard for Managing Flood Risk – A Process Standard (NZS 9401:2008) (Appendix 2). Surface Water, Document E1, Building Industry Authority Surface Water, Document E1, Building Industry Authority Roughness characteristics of NZ rivers, NIWA, September 1998, ISBN Roughness characteristics of NZ rivers, NIWA, September 1998, ISBN Guidelines for stormwater runoff modelling in the Auckland Region, Auckland Regional Council, 1999, TP108 Guidelines for stormwater runoff modelling in the Auckland Region, Auckland Regional Council, 1999, TP108 WaPUG Integrated Urban Drainage Modelling Guide WaPUG Integrated Urban Drainage Modelling Guide STOWA Good Modelling Practise Handbook STOWA Good Modelling Practise Handbook Water New Zealand Water Supply Modelling Guidelines Water New Zealand Water Supply Modelling Guidelines Water New Zealand Wastewater Modelling Guidelines Water New Zealand Wastewater Modelling Guidelines

7 a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling Questionnaire – NZ Asset Managers Does the Council have a standard methodology when reviewing the results of models within reports? 92% said No Could the standard of modelling outputs provided by 3rd parties be improved to assist you in your interpretation for decision-making? 100% said Yes What percentage of applications needed requests for further information due to the lack of clarity of modelling inputs/outputs? Average score of 50% Do you undertake due diligence on software used in hydraulic analysis to ensure its fit-for-purpose whether used in house or by 3rd party applicants? 66% Never 25% Sometimes 8% said ??

8 a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling Example Two different hydrological methods TOPNET & HEC-HMS used for change in land-use Two different hydrological methods TOPNET & HEC-HMS used for change in land-use TOPNET produced flows that caused flood levels to rise by 30mm TOPNET produced flows that caused flood levels to rise by 30mm HEC-HMS produced flows that caused flood levels to rise by 270mm HEC-HMS produced flows that caused flood levels to rise by 270mm Which one do you believe? Which one do you believe?

9 a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling From a Senior Consultant in a Major Company Its predominantly hydraulic modelling projects that go over budget Its predominantly hydraulic modelling projects that go over budget

10 a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling Is this a typical experience? 1. Inability of consultants to assist clients with a clear definition of the scope of works, and to provide reasonable cost and time estimates for a staged approach to deliver appropriate information for decision-making. Very often, inclusions, exclusions, assumptions and limitations are not stated nor the scale of consequences quantified. Costs and timely delivery keep spiralling up, due to lack of clarity and forethought. 1. Inability of consultants to assist clients with a clear definition of the scope of works, and to provide reasonable cost and time estimates for a staged approach to deliver appropriate information for decision-making. Very often, inclusions, exclusions, assumptions and limitations are not stated nor the scale of consequences quantified. Costs and timely delivery keep spiralling up, due to lack of clarity and forethought. 2. Inability of consultants to quickly assess the limitations with available data so that clients are provided with the scale of uncertainties with expected model outputs. 2. Inability of consultants to quickly assess the limitations with available data so that clients are provided with the scale of uncertainties with expected model outputs. 3. Lack of confidence by consultants in using the modelling outcomes for decision-making. Model verification and calibration needs needs to be viewed relevant to the scale of outputs required. 3. Lack of confidence by consultants in using the modelling outcomes for decision-making. Model verification and calibration needs needs to be viewed relevant to the scale of outputs required. Auckland Region Asset Manager

11 a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling Shortfalls No Structure No Structure Inconsistent use of guidelines Inconsistent use of guidelines Reliance on blackbox Reliance on blackbox No industry-wide training No industry-wide training Lack of information and clarity in reports Lack of information and clarity in reports Budget control, spiralling costs Budget control, spiralling costs Modellers inability to assist with solutions Modellers inability to assist with solutions

12 a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling New Paradigm Firstly, what is the objective of any process that needs to address these issues? Firstly, what is the objective of any process that needs to address these issues? A process that enables the modeller to respond to the needs of the client in a specific tangible manner that can then be measurable, transparent and transferable for future use. A process that enables the modeller to respond to the needs of the client in a specific tangible manner that can then be measurable, transparent and transferable for future use.

13 a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling Characteristics Universal Universal Comprehensive and comprehensible Comprehensive and comprehensible Teachable from management to technical level Teachable from management to technical level All modellers (experienced and inexperienced) will be at the same communication level All modellers (experienced and inexperienced) will be at the same communication level An over-arching umbrella for territorial laws, codes and specifications and industry specifications An over-arching umbrella for territorial laws, codes and specifications and industry specifications Creates accountability for quality Creates accountability for quality Ensures client gets what client wants Ensures client gets what client wants Strong communication tool Strong communication tool

14 a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling Structure

15 Creation of Modelling Policy Statement A document that is Specification Specification Project Management Tool Project Management Tool Quality Standard Document Quality Standard Document A future planning tool A future planning tool

16 a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling Organise The Thinking & Research Stage The Thinking & Research Stage The Clients Job The Clients Job

17 a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling Organise - elements Target audience Target audience Standards Standards Time horizon Time horizon Experience requirement Experience requirement Expectations and what success will look like Expectations and what success will look like Ownership and governance Ownership and governance

18 a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling Formalise The point of greatest planning – and therefore benefit The point of greatest planning – and therefore benefit The Design Stage The Design Stage Client 80%, Modeller 20% Client 80%, Modeller 20%

19 a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling Formalise Survey requirements and needs Survey requirements and needs Catchment elements (area, slope, soils, land- use) Catchment elements (area, slope, soils, land- use) Rainfall inputs Rainfall inputs Calibration data quality (flow gauges, water level gauges, rainfall gauges) Calibration data quality (flow gauges, water level gauges, rainfall gauges)

20 a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling Implement The Doing Stage The Doing Stage Line in the Sand Reports Processes Line in the Sand Reports Processes Client 10%, Modeller 90% Client 10%, Modeller 90%

21 a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling Implement - elements Methodology statement Methodology statement Assumptions used Assumptions used Report of data used Report of data used Calibration feedback Calibration feedback Decision-making process Decision-making process

22 a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling Monitor The Review, Future Planning and Closing Stage The Review, Future Planning and Closing Stage Client (and advisor) 80%, Modeller 20% Client (and advisor) 80%, Modeller 20%

23 a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling Monitor - elements Peer Review Process Peer Review Process What improvement programmes need to be considered? What improvement programmes need to be considered? Do you need more or less modelling expertise? Do you need more or less modelling expertise? Resource requirements Resource requirements Where is the model to be housed? Where is the model to be housed? How is the model to be updated? How is the model to be updated?

24 a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling Summary Hydraulic modelling has moved rapidly in the past 25 years. However this does not mean the quality of the work has kept up with technological progress. Hydraulic modelling has moved rapidly in the past 25 years. However this does not mean the quality of the work has kept up with technological progress. Clients experience a myriad of issues when procuring modelling work, often leading to cost over-runs, time delays, repetition and lost information. Clients experience a myriad of issues when procuring modelling work, often leading to cost over-runs, time delays, repetition and lost information. A survey of asset managers highlighted that there is no standard methodology for checking modelling results and that 50% of consent reports require additional information due to the poor clarity of modelling results. A survey of asset managers highlighted that there is no standard methodology for checking modelling results and that 50% of consent reports require additional information due to the poor clarity of modelling results. There are a number of guidelines for modelling but they can be too specific to the discipline or they do not clearly state the parameters. There are a number of guidelines for modelling but they can be too specific to the discipline or they do not clearly state the parameters.

25 a business dedicated to best practise in water resource modelling Conclusion A Modelling Policy Statement Structure as been developed A Modelling Policy Statement Structure as been developed It is a live document that responds to the needs of the project It is a live document that responds to the needs of the project Allows the client to clearly communicate what they want Allows the client to clearly communicate what they want Supports consultants to respond positively to client needs Supports consultants to respond positively to client needs Creates strong communication and collaboration Creates strong communication and collaboration Provides for an easier peer review process (probably reduces its need) Provides for an easier peer review process (probably reduces its need) Ensures modellers are committed to project outcomes – no excuses Ensures modellers are committed to project outcomes – no excuses

26 The End


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