1. THE BRENTHURST FOUNDATION African Futures and Drivers More Important or More Impoverished? THE BRENTHURST FOUNDATION African Futures and Drivers More Important or More Impoverished? Greg Mills

2. Six Drivers People Growth and Differentiation Democracy and Conflict Resources Food Competitiveness and Technology

4. SSA Population: 1950-2050 Source: United Nations 4

5. Some facts worth pondering … -Between 1950 and 2050, Asias population will have grown by a factor of 3.7. Africas population, from 2000 to 2100, will grow by a factor of 5.18. -Growth rates are driven by lifespan increases and birth- rates (average is 4.9 children per woman 2005-2010). -Eg. Tanzania: 45 million people today; 2100, projected 276 million. Nigeria: 160m today, one billion by 2100. -Just 56 percent of Africans are at working-age. Dependency ratios will improve radically. -A demographic dividend is possible. -One in four young people will, by 2025, be from SSA.

6. The Urbanization Phenomenon Source: United Nations 6

8. 8 UPSIDEDOWNSIDE PEACE DIVIDENDRISING INEQUALITY BETTER GOVERNANCESMALL MIDDLE-CLASS POVERTY DOWNLOW SAVINGS DIFFERENTIATIONPOOR INFRASTRUCTURE

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12. Much has been achieved – - 40+ democracies - Range of donors and allies - Governance improved - Growth over 5% - More honest inward scrutiny - Commodities revival …

18. A hungry man is an angry man. Raila Odinga

19. AngolaEthiopiaNiger BeninGabonNigeria BotswanaGambiaSao Tome and Principe Burkina FasoGhanaSenegal BurundiGuineaSeychelles CameroonGuinea-BissauSierra Leone Cape VerdeKenyaSomalia Central African RepublicLesothoSouth Africa ChadLiberiaSudan ComorosMadagascarSwaziland Congo, Dem Republic ofMalawiTanzania, United Rep of Congo, Republic ofMaliTogo Côte dIvoireMauritaniaUganda DjiboutiMauritiusZambia Equatorial GuineaMozambiqueZimbabwe EritreaNamibia Africas net food importers

20. AngolaEthiopiaNiger BeninGabonNigeria BotswanaGambiaSao Tome and Principe Burkina FasoGhanaSenegal BurundiGuineaSeychelles CameroonGuinea-BissauSierra Leone Cape VerdeKenyaSomalia Central African RepublicLesothoSouth Africa ChadLiberiaSudan ComorosMadagascarSwaziland Congo, Dem Republic ofMalawiTanzania, United Rep of Congo, Republic ofMaliTogo Côte dIvoireMauritaniaUganda DjiboutiMauritiusZambia Equatorial GuineaMozambiqueZimbabwe EritreaNamibia Africas net food importers: 39 of 49

21. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 Cereal Yields (Kg/Ha) in Developing Countries Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia & Pacific Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa South Asia 19612005

22. 22 Thank you very much