Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

ENERGY SECTOR IN THE PERIOD 1990 TO 2005 ANALYSIS AND CONSEQUENCES Dr. sc. Goran Granić et al Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "ENERGY SECTOR IN THE PERIOD 1990 TO 2005 ANALYSIS AND CONSEQUENCES Dr. sc. Goran Granić et al Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar."— Presentation transcript:

1 ENERGY SECTOR IN THE PERIOD 1990 TO 2005 ANALYSIS AND CONSEQUENCES Dr. sc. Goran Granić et al Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar

2 ENERGY SECTOR IN THE PERIOD 1990 TO 2005 ANALYSIS AND CONSEQUENCES CONTENT 1.POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS 2.GEO-DIVISION OF THE WORLD (FOR THE PURPOSE OF THIS PAPER) 3.WORLD POPULATION 4.ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 5.ENERGY DEMAND 6.ENERGY PRODUCTION 7.RESERVES OF PRIMARY ENERGY FORMS 8.PRICES OF PRIMARY ENERGY FORMS 9.CONSTRUCTION AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT 10.ENERGY EFFICIENCY 11.NEW TECHNOLOGIES 12.CHANGES IN CONSUMPTION SECTORS 13.INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES, REFORMS, PRIVATIZATION AND MARKET OPENING 14.ENERGY TRANSPORTATION 15.ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION 16.OBSERVATIONS

3 1. POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS EUROPE: BREAKDOWN OF USSR, YUGOSLAVIA, CZECOSLOVAKIA, FALL OF COMMUNIST SYSTEM WAR IN CROATIA, BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA, KOSOVO AND RUSSIA (CHECHNIA) DEMOCRATIC AND ECONOMIC TRANSITION OF EAST EUROPEAN COUNTRIES EUROPEAN UNION ENLARGEMENT MIDDLE EAST WAR IN KUWAIT TALIBAN REGIME IN AFGANISTAN OVERTHROWN SADDAM HUSSEIN IN IRAQ OVERTHROWN SOUTH AMERICAPOLITICAL INSTABILITY OF SOME COUNTRIES USATERRORIST ATTACK 11 SEPTEMBER 2001 AFRICALOCAL WARS AND POLITICAL INSTABILITY IN A LARGE NUMBER OF COUNTRIES CRIMES IN RWANDA

4 1. POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS CHINA POLITICAL CHANGES PAVED THE WAY TO MARKET- ORIENTED ECONOMY RETURN OF HON KONG ISRAEL AND PALESTINECONTINUITY OF CONFLICT AND MILITARY ACTIONS GLOBAL PROBLEM TERRORISM POLITICAL INSTABILITY AND WAR ACTIVITIES IN THE ENERGY PRODUCTION AREAS CROATIAN INDEPENDENCE, TRANSITION AND START OF THE EU FULL MEMBERSHIP NEGOTIATIONS

5 2. GEO - DIVISION OF THE WORLD o OECD N. America - Canada, Mexicoand USA o OECD Pacific - Australia, Japan, Korea and New Zealand o OECD Europe - Austria, Belgium, Czech R., Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Island, Ireland, Italy, Luxemburg, The Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and United Kingdom o Non-OECD Europe - Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulagaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Gibraltar, FYROM, Malta, Roumenia, Serbia and Montenegro and Slovenia o Former USSR - Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belorussia, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kirghisia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldavia, Russia, Tadzhikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan o Middle East - Bahrein, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates and Yemen o Latin America – countries of Central and South America excl. Mexico o Other Asia – Asian countries excl. China, India, Japan and Korea o Africa – all African countries

6 3. WORLD POPULATION (million)

7 4. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 4.1. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (PKM US$)

8 4. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 4.2. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA (PKM)

9 5. ENERGY DEMAND 5.1. TOTAL WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION (10 6 TOE)

10 5. ENERGY DEMAND 5.2. REGIONS IN TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION

11 5. ENERGY DEMAND 5.3. TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (10 6 TOE)

12 5. ENERGY DEMAND 5.4. TOTAL WORLD CONSUMPTION OF ENERGY FORMS (10 6 TOE)

13 6. ENERGY PRODUCTION 6.1. WORLD PRODUCTION OF PRIMARY ENERGY (10 6 TOE)

14 6. ENERGY PRODUCTION 6.2. PRIMARY ENERGY PRODUCTION PER CAPUTA (kgen/capita)

15 6. ENERGY PRODUCTION 6.3. STRUCTURE OF WORLD ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION (TWh)

16 6. ENERGY PRODUCTION 6.4. ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION BY REGIONS (TWh)

17 6. ENERGY PRODUCTION 6.5. ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (kWh/capita)

18 6. ENERGY PRODUCTION 6.6. PRIMARY ENERGY PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION INCREASE (10 6 TOE)

19 7. RESERVES OF PRIMARY ENERGY FORMS 7.1. CRUDE OIL RESERVES (BILLION OF BARRELS) 952,9 957,7956,5 968,5 980, ,81.024, , , , , , , First 20World total Source: ENI, World Oil and Gas Review

20 7. RESERVES OF PRIMARY ENERGY FORMS 7.2. NATURAL GAS RESERVES (BILLION m 3 ) Source: ENI, World Oil and Gas Review First 20World total

21 7. RESERVES OF PRIMARY ENERGY FORMS 7.3. RESERVES OF HYDRATES Discovered reserves of hydrates in land and sea Corroborated reserves 20 x m 3 1 m 3 hydrate = 164 m 3 natural gas Pacific Ocean Atlantic Ocean Indian Ocean Arctic Ocean

22 8. PRICES OF PRIMARY ENERGY FORMS 8.1. CRUDE OIL Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2005

23 8. PRICES OF PRIMARY ENERGY FORMS 8.2. NATURAL GAS Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2005

24 8. PRICES OF PRIMARY ENERGY FORMS 8.3. COAL Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2005

25 9. CONSTRUCTION AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT 9.1. LARGE POWER PLANTS HYDRO POWER PLANTS: Utility degree improvement Significant growth in Central and South America COAL- FIRED THERMAL POWER PLANTS: Utility degree improvement and installed capacity increase Efficient SO2 removal and pilot project of CO2 emission mitigation Significant capacity growth especially in China and India GAS - FIRED THERMAL POWER PLANTS: Utility degree improvement Significant capacity increase NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS: Extended lifetime (60 years=, unit capacity increase, evolutinary improvements, dramatic changes in design and configuration of the existing technologies, several initiatives in new reactor development (GIF, INPRO, ITER)

26 9. CONSTRUCTION AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT COAL - AND GAS - FIRED THERMAL POWER UNITS Capacity increase in thermal power units in period, % CroatiaWestern Europe Eastern Europe and ex-SSSR ChinaIndiaJapanOther Asia & Oceania Middle East North America Central & South Amerika AfricaWorld total Source: Energy Information Administration

27 9. CONSTRUCTION AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT NUCLEAR ENERGY – CAPACITY STATUS After 1990 there is noticeable stagnation in installed NP capacity growth In future most of new nuclear capacities expected in China as to meet the strong electricity demand Growth Source: EIA Energy Information Administration (EIA) Most of nuclear capacities are installed in Western Europe and North America Between 1990 and 2003 only Japan had a significant growth in nuclear capacities Western Europe Eastern Europe and Ex-USSR ChinaIndiaJapanOther Asia and Australia North America South and i Central America Africa GW 1990 nuclear 1990 total 2003 total 2003 nuclear GW Africa South and Central America Other Asia, Middle East nd Oceania India China Japan Eastern Europe and ex-USSR North America Western Europe W. Europe N. America East Europe + ex-USSR Japan Other Asia

28 9. CONSTRUCTION AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT 9.2. RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES WIND Unit capacity increase and investment costs reduction High growth of construction BIOMASS Application in electricity production, heat production and transportation Technological progress realized SUN Increase in collector installation by annual rate of 13%, and solar cells by 27% Dominant silicium-based technology (93.7%), GEOTHERMAL ENERGIES Capacity growth of 44%, electricity generation growth of 48%; thernal capacities growth of 76%, and heat production growth of 70% in previous period SMALL HYDRO POWER PLANTS HYDRO POWER PLANTS Permanent generation growth Small steps forward in technological development

29 EWEA target: MW in Europe by CONSTRUCTION AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT WIND – PRICE GROWTH TENDENCY c/kWh

30 10. ENERGY EFFICIENCY Significant progress in energy efficiency improvements in: Changing attitude towards energy efficiency in legal sense, government measures, technological improvements, and awareness-raising and education of expert and general public Utility degree increase in energy generation and transformation Increased use of cogenration Reduction of losses in transportation and distribution Energy efficiency improvements in technological processes Energy efficiency improvements in consumers: coolers, chillers, and their combinations, laundry washers and dryers, dish washers, electric stoves, light sources, and air-conditioning equipment Increased insulation quality and production of new materials in construction industry

31 11. NEW TECHNOLOGIES HYDROGEN Major lines of development of hydrogen production Fosil fuels – reforming natural gas, coal carburation, incomplete oil derivative oxidation Water electrolysis by use of RES – solar photovoltaic, solar thermal, hydro, geothermal energy, etc. Thermal chemical production – water decomposition in chemical reactins with heat Nuclear energy – water electrolysis and decomposition Biosystems – biomass carburation, algae biophotolysis Problems of hydrogen storage Gaseous hydrogen –- composite and other reservoirs Liquified hydrogen – criogens, absorbent solutions, organic liquifactions Solid materials –- carbon and hydrides, able to absorb hydrogen Main areas of hydrogen use Hydrogen combustion: internal-combustion engines - transport; gas turbines –- aircraft transport, combined energy plants Fuel cells; decentralized electricity and heat generation, transport and others (develpent of high- temperature – decentralized CHP, low-temperature – for vehicles and small CHP)

32 12. CHANGES IN CONSUMPTION SECTORS TRANSPORT Share of road transport is increasing, while share of railway and pipeline transport is decreasing. Railway transport is stable. Share of road transport is increasing, while share if railway and river transport is decreasing – constant trend Source: Directorate-General for Energy and Transport, European Commission, "EU Energy and Transport in Figures 2004" Freight transport - EU 15 52,1 60,0 69,3 70,6 72,9 74,0 74,775,5 30,1 24,1 18,1 16,4 14,4 14,0 13,412,9 10,9 8,8 7,6 7,5 7,4 7,27,06,9 6,87,1 5,05,55,3 4,8 4, (%) Pipelines River transport Railways Road transprot Freight transport - USA 22,4 23,6 26,2 27,2 30,5 30,9 30,3 41,5 39,1 37,6 38,2 41,3 42,2 43,1 12,8 12,3 12,0 13,1 10,4 10,0 23,4 25,0 24,2 21,6 17,8 16, (%) Pipelines River transport Railways Road transport

33 12. CHANGES IN CONSUMPTION SECTORS TRANSPORT Source: Directorate-General for Energy and Transport, European Commission, "EU Energy and Transport in Figures 2004" Railway transport decreasing while airways transport is increasing. Share of road and railway transport is decearsing and share of airway transport is increasing.

34 12. CHANGES IN CONSUMPTION SECTORS TRANSPORT 1970 – Rules on technical measures and requirements for thermal protection of buildings – Official Bulletin of SFRY SFRJ 35/70 – 3 climate zones – new requirements in thermal protection of buildings. New, stricter, and amended version of these norms adopted in 1987 and is still in force today as HRN U.J.5.600, HRN U.J5.510, HRN U.J5.520, HRN U.J LEGAL ENVIRONMENT AND HEAT NEEDS IN BUILDINGS OLD HOUSES CRO REGULATION 1987 NEW REGULATION 2005 LOW-ENERGY HOUSES PASSIVE HOUSES Specific energy demand in kWh/m 2 Electricity in households Electricity for ventilation Hot water for consume Heating CHANGING REGULATION ON THERMAL PROTECTION IN CROATIA FROM 1970 UNTIL NOW

35 oCurrently 83% of buildings in Croatia has unsatisfactory thermal protection in relation to the European standards and more than 50% of buildings was built without any thernal protection oNew technical requirements on heat energy savings and thermal protection in buildings – first step in harmonization with Directive 2002/91/EC – needed heat certificate for buildings (as from 01 July 2006 in Croatia) before from 1996 data not available incomplete apartments Number of inhabited apartments by year of construction 12. CHANGES IN CONSUMPTION SECTORS DWELLINGS

36 13. INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES, REFORMS, PRIVATIZATION AND MARKET OPENING GAS BEFORE 1990 MONOPOLY:NATIONAL OR SUPPLY AREAS COMPETITION: NON EXISTING IN NATIONAL MARKET SUPPLY NATIONAL MARKETS: TRADING BETWEEN GAS COMPANIES REGULATION:REGULATOR IS GOVERNMENT THERE IS NOT INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY OWNERSHIP: IN PRINCIPLE STATE-OWNERSHIP PREVAILS CUSTOMERS:CANNOT CHOOSE SUPPLIER

37 13. INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES, REFORMS, PRIVATIZATION AND MARKET OPENING GAS UNTIL 2005 RESTRUCTURING:UNBUNDLING MARKET-ORIENTED AND MONOPOLY ACTVITIES UNBUNDLING TRANSPORT AND DISTRIBUTION FROM PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY ESTABLISHING TRANSPORT NETWORK OPERATOR ESTABLISHING DISTRIBUTION NETWORK OPERATOR (OR COMBINED OPERATOR) STORAGE AS SEPARATE ACTIVITY COMPETITION: IN PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY NATIONAL MARKETS:MULTINATIONAL DIMENSION OF MARKET REGULATION:INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY OWNERSHIP: PRIVATIZATION, MULTINATIONAL DIMESION, TAKE – OVER OF SMALLER COMPANIES CUSTOMERS:POSSIBILITY TO CHOOSE SUPPLIER

38 13. INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES, REFORMS, PRIVATIZATION AND MARKET OPENING ELECTRICITY BEFORE 1990 MONOPOLY:NATIONAL COMPETITION : NONE COMPETITION IN SUPPLY NATONAL MARKETS: TRADING BETWEEN ELECTRIC POWER UNDERTAKINGS REGULATION:REGULATOR IS GOVERNMENT, THERE IS NOT INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY OWNERSHIP : STATE OWNERSHIP PREVAILS CUSTOMERS :CANNOT CHOOSE SUPPLIER

39 13. INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES, REFORMS, PRIVATIZATION AND MARKET OPENING ELECTRICITY UNTIL 2005 RESTRUCTURING:UNBUNDLING MARKET-ORIENTED AND MONOPOLY ACTVITIES UNBUNDLING TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION FROM GENERATION AND SUPPLY ESTABLISHING TRANSMISSION SYSTEM OPERATOR ESTABLISHING DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM OPERATOR ESTABLISHING ELECTRICITY MARKET OPERATOR COMPETITION: IN GENERATION AND SUPPLY NATIONAL MARKETS: MULTINATIONAL DIMENSION OF MARKET REGULATIONA:INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY OWNERSHIP: PRIVATIZATION, MULTINATIONAL DIMENSION, TAKE - OVER OF SMALLER COMPANIES CUSTOMERS:POSSIBILITY TO CHOOOSE SUPPLIER

40 14. ENERGY TRANSPORT 14.1.OIL PIPELINES Existing pipelines Pipelines under consideration / construction/ extenstion Product pipelines Proposed priority routes Of European interest

41 14. ENERGY TRANSPORT ELECTRICITY NETWORKS OF UCPTE COUNTRY MEMBERS

42 14. ENERGY TRANSPORT EXPORT OF NATURAL GAS (billon m 3 ) Izvor: ENI, World Oil and Gas Review Slight but constant rise of exports in relation to production, both through gas pipelines or through LNG. Export of natural gas (bill m ) 3 80,9 83,2 88,3 92,7 100,3 111,1 114,0 124,4 137,2 143,3 150,6 398,4 402,1 384,0 405,7 431,9 419,4 434,5 473,8 518,8 548,4 570, Export (LNG)Export (via gas pipelines) Gas pipelines LNGLNG

43 Source: Trans European Network 14. ENERGY TRANSPORT GAS NETWORK PRIORITY PROJECTS

44 14. ENERGY TRANSPORT POTENTIAL GAS PIPELINES CAPACITIES, bill m 3

45 15. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION oEnergy sector: Air emissions, Soil pollution, Water pollution, Waste (incl. nuclear) oAs of 1990 noticed is general trend of air emissions reduction (6.3% under Annex I UNFCCC countries) oTransitional economies accomplished noticeable reductions (by 40%) due to economic activity setback oSignificant influence of measures set out by conventions - UN FCCC and Kyoto protokol – on economies (espec. transitional countries) Source : UNFCCC: FCC/CP/2004/5

46 15. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION FUTURE ACTIVITIES oTransport systems efficiency improvement: Leakage of energy products from from pipelines, gas pipelines and other network systems, Increased system efficiency but there is multiple increase in transported quantities of energy products, Pressures due to increased volumes of energy products transport by tankers, Energy related incidents in road transport. oEnergy sector waste management, especially nuclear waste oGreenhouse gas emission mitigation: UN FCCC and Kyoto Protocol implementing mechanisms : Emissions reduction, Emission tradings, Projects in the framework of Joint Implementation... reducing emission of other pollutants, with and without greenhouse effects, from the energy sector, energy efficiency. oFinding modalities of financing measures for reducing pollution from the energy sector.

47 16. OBSERVATIONS / 1 Political changes in the past 15 years had significant impact on energy consumption (former communist countries in Europe, USSR, China, etc.) Wars and crises in most cases related to energy producing countries Population growth took place only in China, India, other part of Asia and Africa, i.e., in less developed part of the world Economic growth (increse in GDP) in absolute terms is higher in undeveloped world than in the developed one, but the gap is still wide A larger portion of energy consumption was realized in undeveloped countries (55%), regardless of the fact that 2 billion people in the world do not have access to modern forms of energy Energy intensity is improving Regardless of increased use of renewables, oil and gas made up more than 50% of the energy consumption growth In electricity consumption China had the higest rise; and less developed countries in absolute terms had increased electricty consumption more than developed ones.

48 16. OBSERVATIONS / 2 In energy production the deficit in developed countries inceases, because primary energy forms production growth has been realized in undeveloped countries. The higest growth in electricty production was realized in coal, gas-fired thermal power units and nuclear units, by most in China. Crude oil and gas reserves in the past period grew faster than production. In oil prices it is essential to point out the period of unrealistically low prices 98/99 and the period of high prices 2004/2005. Demand growth in China and other undeveloped countries is the real reason of price increase but its dominant dimension is in political and economic speculations. Gas prices were in line with crude oil prices, only the most restictive factor are poorly developed transport network Coal prices have been relatively more stable except for the period 2004/2005 when demand grew, mostly in China.

49 16. OBSERVATIONS / 3 The past 15 years was the period of application of known technologies minimally improved to meet energy efficiency and environemantal impact requirements The focus is increasinlgy on energy efficiecy and renewable energy sources The characteristic of the past 15 years is the opening of electricity and gas markets, legal regulation of the market, restructuration and privatization Barriers to market development, transport and domination of short term over long term objectives Transport sector significantly grows without arrangements which could vitaly affect the structure of energy consumption structure Realistic possibilities of energy efficiency improvements in building sector

50 16. OBSERVATIONS / 4 On the basis of the past 15 years the next 15-year developments can be foreseen: Introduction of new technologies with more dramatic imapct on structural changes in energy supply and demand is not expected Continuation of economic growth and energy demand growth in undeveloped countries is expected. Continuation of political insecurity around the energy producing countries is expected Further pressures on prices of primary energy forms is expected More significant gvernmental involvement is expected with a view of energy effciency improvements and use renewables Desirable and crucial would be a decision by international community and governments to forge a coalition for technological development in energy sector and investments in technology. More investments in research and development of primary energy forms production and in transprot network construction for network fuels would enhance security of supply.

51 16. OBSERVATIONS / 5 CONCEPT OF WEC EUROPE REGIONAL SCENARIOS TO 2050


Download ppt "ENERGY SECTOR IN THE PERIOD 1990 TO 2005 ANALYSIS AND CONSEQUENCES Dr. sc. Goran Granić et al Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google