Presentation on theme: "Playing to Win Terry R. Head, President International Association of Movers."— Presentation transcript:
Playing to Win Terry R. Head, President International Association of Movers
The largest international trade association and advocacy group for household goods forwarders, movers and service providers Founded in 1962 to represent the interests of military TSPs; broadened scope to include commercial business in 1970s Source of the largest networking opportunity for business development within the moving industry Membership includes 2,300+ companies and individuals in more than 170 countries and territories IAM – Who We Are
IAM – We Are Not Just Movers Company Memberships: 2,076 –Core –Governing –Supplier Individual Memberships: 261 –YP –Veterans –Student 1, Total IAM Members: 2,337
More Reasons for Optimism than Reasons to Worry Notion of a double dip is dead – or fading away –Financial cliff is looming Manufacturing rebounding – spurring recovery of freight On the front-end of an expansion cycle –How long will it last? Improvements in stock markets (U.S. and foreign) –Absent any sharp falls in European stocks
U.S. Economy U.S. economy – growth of less than 2% for 2012* U.S. domestic freight shipments hit a seven year high in December, but have slowed North American Free Trade (NAFTA) –Up 27% from 2009 –Up 40.3% over recession levels of surface trade – Canada / Mexico up 14.3%** *Source: National Association of Business Economies **Source: Bureau of Transportation Statics
If You Still Need Reasons to Worry …. Renewed European debt woes –Greece, Portugal and Spain –Ultimate fate of the EURO? Possible weakness in the U.S. economy Drought impacting food and gas prices –Taking a bite out of consumers pocketbooks Slower corporate earnings growth and profit margins –Down from near record levels
Global Trade In a State of Flux Growth in trade ($ value) will slow –Less than 4% in 2012 vs. a 6.6% expansion in 2011 Trade (volume) predicted to slacken to less than 5% in 2012 after expanding more than 6% in 2011 Source: The World Bank
U.S. Imports Up 10% year-over-year –Retailers stocking up; driven by robust automotive and strengthening housing industries* U.S. international trade balance (goods and services) –Improved to a minus $42.9 billion in June 2012 (May - $48 billion) *Source: National Retail Federation
U.S. Exports 2011 started with a bang –6% increase to record volumes –Fizzled out in 4 th quarter 2012 projections ?? –Lowered from 4.3% to 3.5% Source: National Association of Business Economics
Why Focus on the World?
Trade is to International moving as Home sales are to Domestic moving Why Focus on World Economies and Trade?
Where Are the Markets? After Canada and Mexico –European Union is the biggest U.S. export (and moving) market Everything is tied together by exchange rates –(Value of the U.S. dollar) and the rate of economic growth in overseas markets
China Has Become a Key Player But …. Now the worlds 2 nd largest economy (behind the U.S.), China is facing –Slowest trade growth in two years - $3.6 trillion –Sinking trade surplus – a 3 year low –Growth in middle class = higher wages
The Jobs Are Moving Global outsourcing trends beginning to shift Near-sourcing – countries like Mexico / Canada In-sourcing – jobs returning to the U.S. –25,000 manufacturing jobs created in July –Down from the 37,000 in March Source: U.S. Department of Labor
Global Hot Spots for Moves
For decades – was U.S. to Europe / Europe to U.S. –Then the BRICs: Brazil, Russia, India and China Emerging markets are next –Emerging markets will grow 5.6% in 2012, far ahead of the 1.3% projected for the Advanced Economies –Africa is leading the way – one-third of continent is considered middle class – tripled since 1980 –Recent trade agreements Columbia, Peru and South Korea
China is leading the expansion of trade Chinese investments – rising to $50 billion by 2015 China - African bi-lateral trade – $300 billion by 2015 Africa The Land of Opportunity / Risk
Africa (cont.) Mining and natural resources main interests Agribusiness increasing import volumes USA falling behind China and Euro zone –U.S. – African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) African apparel suppliers increasing exports to U.S. Infrastructure and logistics lagging
Long known for its precious metals Worlds second largest gold reserves Trading and transit (and banking) gateway –Particularly as Africa continues to expand South Africa
Latin America Brazil and Chile Slowing but continuing to grow faster than USA
Peru and Columbia The New Tigers Growing at a faster clip than others in region Columbias economy grew 5.9% - Peru 6.9% Mining of natural resources driving factors Re-creation of the middle class
Russia Its About Time! Worlds 9 th largest economy Joined World Trade Organization (WTO) U.S. – Russian trade bill –Repeals Cold War trade barriers –Establishes Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR)
Asia Generates 1/3 of global GDP Purchases 1/4 of American exports U.S. trade with Asia – over $1 trillion in 2011
Asia (cont.) Home to U.S. commercial and strategic allies –South Korea Recent Free Trade Agreement (KORUS-FTA) –95% bilateral free trading in five years Sets stage for South Korea to join Trans-Pacific partnership Emerging Markets ….. Keep your eye on them!
Indonesia The New China Resembles the BRIC countries Fourth most-populous nation –Behind China, India and USA Abundant natural resources Low labor costs = low cost manufacturing
Turkey Still the Crossroads of the World Best (geographically) positioned country in the developing world –Europes three-quarter billion consumers, and the export markets of Russia, Central Asia and the Middle East
Mongolia Poor Little Rich Nation Landlocked between China and Russia Abundance of natural resources Economy grew 17.3% in 2011 (vs. U.S. at 1.7%) Growth turbo-charged by foreign investors
1.United States 2.United Kingdom 3.Singapore 4.China 5.Switzerland 6.India 7.Germany 8.Hong Kong 9.Japan 10.Canada Where Will People be Moving To and From? Top Ten Most Popular Relocation Destinations
What Percent of U.S. Employees Relocate to Each Country?
The Who and What of Future International Moves Younger employees willing to take on overseas postings, particularly in emerging markets Many companies combining overseas jobs with charitable projects –IBM – 1,200 employees – 100 projects – 23 countries –FedEx – Global Leadership Corp. works with Peace Corps Relocation trends showing shorter time periods for international assignments and short-term projects –Probably smaller shipments
In What Will They Be Living? With Trends for Shorter Postings and More Assignments to Emerging Markets We Will See: Long-term or extended stay hotels or temporary housing Serviced (semi or fully) furnished apartments Rotation in and out of corporate housing Packaged home furnishings –Smaller quarters and shipments of personal things –Creating the need for long-term storage?
U.S. Government (DOD) Moves Shifting Withdrawals from Iraq, Kuwait, Afghanistan 2012 / 2013 European drawdown of troops levels Increased presence in Pacific Rim, i.e., Korea, Guam and Australia Overall reductions in all military services –Reduce forces by 123,900 –Goal: down to 2.15 million by October 2017
Other U.S. Government Impacts on International Moving Increased focus on international rogue movers –FMC I-27 investigation – Barrel Trade –MOU – FMCSA and Federal Maritime Commission –Enhanced – licensing process and bonding –New MAP-21 Highway Bill – increased bonding for forwarders and brokers – raised from $10,000 to $75,000 Coordinated effort – consumer protections –Trade associations, Federal, State and local (regulatory) agencies – also looking for ways to generate revenue
Other U.S. Government Impacts on International Moving (cont.) Security – screening vs. scanning Advance manifest filings / reviews Personal Identity Information (PII) –Data-mining and sharing of information –Movers getting blame! C&BP – intensive customs exams –IAM data collection and advocacy
Other Things to Watch Going Forward Rising oil prices – inland and ocean bunker –Barrel of oil: June $14 / June $82 Renegotiation of ILA Port labor contracts –Potential work-actions or strikes –Push traffic from East to West coast Agent / drivers – shortages in capacity –Expanded use of containerization Expansion of the Panama Canal in 2014 may change U.S. Port Gateways – transit times
IAM 50th Anniversary Annual Meeting October 10-13, 2012 Gaylord National Hotel and Convention Center National Harbor, Maryland (Washington, DC) Celebrating the Past…. Moving Forward Together