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Enid Housing Market Opportunities ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013.

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Presentation on theme: "Enid Housing Market Opportunities ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013."— Presentation transcript:

1 Enid Housing Market Opportunities ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013

2 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Purpose of Study Document Enids growth Evaluate housing market conditions Assess potential for new housing development Identify market obstacles Propose strategic solutions

3 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Research Approach Define Study Area Garfield County

4 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Research Approach In-person community visits – windshield research – Drive-around overview – Follow-up phone calls, other research Secondary source data gathering – Demographics – Economy – Housing market

5 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Research Approach Primary research – Interviews – Discussion groups – Employee survey – nearly 500 responses Groups who participated: – Employers – Developers / builders – City of Enid staff – Realtors – Others

6 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Research Approach Synthesize quantitative data and qualitative information – art and science Perform ballpark quantitative demand analysis Refine and expand analysis with other data, qualitative findings, and professional judgment

7 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Economic Context Garfield County has real, permanent job growth Unemployment Rate Time PeriodGarfield CountyOklahomaUnited States 20104.9%7.1%9.7% 20113.9%5.9%9.3% 20123.5%5.4%8.6% January 20133.7%5.6%8.5% February 20133.5%5.4%8.1% March 20133.3%5.1%7.6% April 20132.9%4.4%7.5% Source: Oklahoma Employment Security Commission Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

8 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Economic Context More permanent jobs coming Industry Current Openings 6-Mo Projection Aerospace340 Agriculture22 Banking86 Distributing520 Engineering22 Financial88 Grocery520 Insurance12 Manufacturing209186 Medical6962 Non-profit11 Oil & Gas38 Retail02 Service Company95 Transportation202 Utilities22 Unidentified-70 Total Current Openings347 Total 6-Mo Projection 438 Source: Autry Technology Center

9 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Economic Context 2015 projection: nearly 1,700 jobs identified, approx. 800 permanent Does not include indirect impacts Projections Company Current Openings6-Month 12- Month 24- Month Autry Totals34743875 City of Enid7 7 Enid ISD9045 Flaming Auto Supply 9 Koch (F/T) 50 Koch (Temporary) 700 Northstar Agri 55 Northstar Agri (Temporary) 200 Unnamed Company8 8 30 Unnamed Project 25 Totals452483374830 Cumulative4838571,687 Sources: ERDA, Autry Technology Center, CDS Market Research

10 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Demographic Trends Growing population and household count PopulationEnid City Garfield County 2012 Estimate 49,854 61,189 2010 Census 49,540 60,580 2000 Census 47,174 57,812 Growth 2000-2010 2,366 2,768 % Growth 2000-20105.02%4.79% Households 2010 Census 19,832 24,175 2000 Census 19,105 23,175 Growth 2000-2010 727 1,000 % Growth 2000-20103.81%4.31% Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census

11 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Demographic Trends Age trends: Little kids, 30s, and empty nesters growing City of EnidGarfield County Population By Age20002010 Change 2000- 201020002010 Change 2000- 2010 Total Population47,17449,3792,20557,81260,5802,768 Under 5 years3,2283,9317033,8764,590714 5 to 9 years3,1993,4982993,9004,229329 10 to 14 years3,1803,031(149)4,0373,865(172) 15 to 24 years6,5396,505(34)7,9467,719(227) 25 to 34 years5,8327,1341,3026,9898,2861,297 35 to 44 years7,1165,489(1,627)8,8186,808(2,010) 45 to 54 years6,0486,7396917,5288,6331,105 55 to 64 years4,2925,5491,2575,4577,1541,697 65 and older7,7407,503(237)9,2619,29635 Mean Age38.43638.437.3 Median Age37.336.737.537.3 Enid ISD Annual Enrollment YearEnrollmentChange% Change 20046,461 20056,435-26-0.40% 20066,349-86-1.34% 20076,5001512.38% 20086,529290.45% 20096,8262974.55% 20107,0021762.58% 20117,2452433.47% 20127,5282833.91% Sources: Enid ISD Sources: Bureau of the Census, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census

12 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Demographic Trends Education levels: Improving overall Bachelors or higher: equal to overall state level Slightly lower than OKC MSA level 2000 Census2011 ACS Garfield County#%#% Population 25 Years and Older 38,053 39,428 Less than 9th grade2,0575.4%1,5764.00% Some High School, no diploma 4,69912.4%3,7509.50% High School Graduate (or GED) 13,55735.6%14,15835.90% Some College, no degree8,44922.2%8,67922.00% Associate Degree1,8304.8%2,1495.50% Bachelor's Degree4,93613.0%6,48316.40% Graduate or professional degree 2,5256.6%2,6336.70% % HS graduate or higher 82.20% 86.50% % Bachelor's degree or higher 19.6% 23.10% Sources: Bureau of the Census

13 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Demographic Trends Higher- income hh increasing Lower-income hh decreasing Still skewed to lower ranges compared to state, OKC MSA Garfield County2000 Households 2011 Households Change Income RangeNumber% % 2000- 2011 23,220 23,754 534 Less than $15,0004,66920.1%3,51614.8%-1,153 $15,000 to $24,9993,84416.6%3,06412.9%-780 $25,000 to $34,9993,82516.5%3,82416.1% $35,000 to $49,9994,48219.3%3,91916.5%-563 $50,000 to $74,9993,73916.1%4,06217.1%323 $75,000 to $99,9991,4806.4%2,47010.4%990 $100,000 to $149,9997793.4%1,9008.0%1,121 $150,000 or more4021.7%9744.1%572 Average$42,048 $56,528 $14,480 Median$33,097 $40,626 $7,529 Sources: Bureau of the Census

14 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Demographic Trends Major income differences between home owner and renter population Median hh income: – Owners $49,703 – Renters $27,160 Sources: Bureau of the Census

15 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Housing Profile Housing stock heavily skewed toward 1950 – 1979 (52.4%) 62.6% of renter hh in single family detached homes 2011 Estimate Housing CharacteristicEstimatePercent Total housing units26,832 100% Occupied housing units24,02289.5% Vacant housing units2,81010.5% YEAR STRUCTURE BUILT Built 2005 or later6632.5% Built 2000 to 20047372.7% Built 1990 to 19991,4965.6% Built 1980 to 19893,33112.4% Built 1970 to 19796,40023.9% Built 1960 to 19693,84614.3% Built 1950 to 19593,79714.2% Built 1940 to 19492,5299.4% Built 1939 or earlier4,03315.0% Sources: Bureau of the Census

16 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Market Conditions - Rental Multifamily rentals: mostly old, very tight market Property Year BuiltOcc Cherokee Terrace NA100% Colonial Plaza NA100% Edgewood Arms NA100% Indian Oaks 1980100% LeChateau 198595-100% Mosher Drive Apartments 196099% Leona Mitchell Apartments 197075% Pheasant Run 2000100% Randolph Village 1960100% Rolling Meadow NA 100% Roosevelt Park 2009100% Sandpiper 197595% Seven Pines Village 1982100% Tuscana 2012100% Winchester West 1973100% Sunridge NA 100% Sources: Bass Construction, CDS Market Research

17 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Market Conditions - Rental Single family rental market: – Occupancies essentially 100% per largest Enid property manager – Typical rent for well-maintained moderate quality house (2-3 br) $650 – Up from 85% occupancy and $525 two years ago Not all landlords / managers meticulous about maintenance or tenant quality

18 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Market Conditions - Rental Supply so tight that tenants renting below means and ability – settling for lower quality Well-paid professionals renting in 1970s-1980s construction – Vance AFB, hospitals, police – Rents typically <$750 One upscale multifamily property – Tuscana – 100% occupancy and wait list – Rents > $700 - $1,100

19 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Market Conditions – For-Sale All signs point to sellers market May 2013 median price – 22% over May 2012, 34% over May 2011 Average Days on Market Median Sales Price Sources: EMAR, CDS Market Research

20 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Supply has plummeted Especially pronounced last 12 months Market Conditions – For-Sale Supply (months) Inventory Sources: EMAR, CDS Market Research

21 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Market Conditions – For-Sale Still large numbers of sales <$120,000 Number of Sales by Price Range Sources: EMAR, CDS Market Research

22 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Single Family Construction Drastic slowdown since 2011, despite demand Single family construction, Garfield County Sources: Garfield County Assessor, CDS Market Research

23 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Single Family Construction Other Oklahoma markets better at supplying new homes during strong economy Single family permits per 10,000 residents Sources: Bureau of the Census, ERDA, CDS Market Research

24 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Single Family Construction Permit values much higher since 2008 Enid single family new home permit values Sources: Bureau of the Census, ERDA, CDS Market Research

25 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Employee Survey Online and paper survey promoted through Enid-area employers Nearly 500 responses Wide range of ages, household types, incomes

26 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Employee Survey Recent movers had much more difficulty finding housing Difficulty of finding housing vs. when they last moved

27 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Employee Survey Strong bias toward low housing costs Current housing monthly payments Willingness to pay for next home

28 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Employee Survey Key reasons for a move: 1.Home size (want larger) 2.Lot size (want larger) 3.Quality (want better) 4.Neighborhood (want different) Strong preference for West Enid, for both owners and renters

29 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Employee Survey Key housing selection factors: 1.Price (over 70%) 2.Size / number of bedrooms (over 70%) 3.Physical condition (over 60%) 4.Floor plan (over 50% owners, 33% renters) 5.Neighborhood quality / character / amenities (44% owners, 37% renters) 6.Safety / security / crime (36% owners, 44% renters)

30 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Demand Analysis Examined historical ratios of population growth to job growth Low recent ratio – jobs drawing from pool of unemployed Unlikely to continue Data Attribute20052012Change Employment22,97126,9703,999 Population56,95861,1894,231 Est. household share97.0% Est. household population55,24959,3534,104 Household pop. / job2.412.201.03 Single family construction625 per additional job0.16 Multifamily construction150 per additional job0.04 Sources: Bureau of the Census, Oklahoma Employment Security Commission, CDS Market Research

31 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Demand Analysis Apply jobs forecast and expected ratios of population growth, household size, and tenure Data Attribute2010Change2012Change2015 Employment25,1331,83726,9701,00027,970 Add'l population / add'l job0.331.20 Household population58,75060359,3531,20060,553 Persons / household2.43 Households24,17524,42524,919 Owner-occupied share of HH67.4% Owner-occupied units16,30216916,47133316,804 Renter-occupied share of HH32.6% Renter-occupied units7,873817,9541618,115 Vacant share of total housing units9.9%8.9%8.5% Total housing units26,831(15)26,81641827,234 Sources: Bureau of the Census, Oklahoma Employment Security Commission, CDS Market Research

32 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Market Opportunities - Rental Continued strong base demand for rentals, due to job growth, income levels, price of new housing – Especially affordable and mid-price rentals (<$850) Limited supply, has not responded to demand Single family rental market harder to quantify but definitely very tight – Reports of doubling up

33 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Market Opportunities - Rental Market should support 250 to 400 units of new affordable rentals – mainly multifamily – LIHTC projects (Roosevelt, Pheasant Run) Upscale rentals – 75 to 100 new units supportable – Rents $750 to $1,100 – Job growth + Vance AFB

34 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Market Opportunities – For-Sale Supply-demand imbalance – Lack of new construction during job growth – Transfer of single family to rental market Development cost / willingness to pay mismatch – Higher local construction costs – Buyer preferences / constraints in pricing, features

35 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Market Opportunities – For-Sale Demand perspective: overall need for 300 to 400 new single family homes by 2015 – Household incomes indicate prime pricing range $175,000 to $250,000 – 30% to 50% of new homes should be in this range Development / construction cost constraints may limit market to $225,000 - $250,000 – 75 to 150 homes

36 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Market Responsiveness - Key Issues High development and construction costs relative to larger markets Existential fear – is economic growth real? – Coupled with concern over financial community understanding of market Lack of leadership and sense of purpose to prioritize housing development

37 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Strategic Recommendations Organize for information exchange and dialogue – Developers / builders – Finance and lending – Realtors – Public officials

38 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Strategic Recommendations Assemble and distribute housing market data and information – Job growth (current and expected) – Rental market conditions – Single family lots – Developable properties – Incentives and assistance programs – Infill neighborhoods

39 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Strategic Recommendations Program to mitigate temporary workers impact – Defray impacts on long term rental market – Innovative temporary housing techniques Investigate underlying reasons for higher development / construction costs in Enid – Potential for innovative, cooperative solutions

40 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Strategic Recommendations Public incentives for new housing – Special districts, infrastructure reimbursements, code compliance assistance – Proactive land assembly / acquisition / development prep Examination of public development approval / inspection process

41 Enid Housing Market Potential ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013 Strategic Recommendations Application of residential habitation standards and tenant civil behavior codes – Helps infill housing market

42 Enid Housing Market Opportunities ERDA Annual Meeting 11 July 2013


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