Presentation on theme: "Transit-Oriented Development in Prince Georges County Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority."— Presentation transcript:
Transit-Oriented Development in Prince Georges County Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority
Objectives Quantify and qualify the nature of regional development trends Review the benefits of Transit Oriented Development Ground truth the anecdotal information prevalent in the marketplace Highlight preliminary key findings and implications
Densification Already Underway The Region Is Reorienting Its Growth Patterns About 20% of the regions household growth between 2005 and 2015 is currently taking place within walkable, urban, transit- oriented areas. The growth of Gen Y, increased demand for Transit-Oriented Development and demand for sophisticated urbanity in part driving this trend. Source: MWCOG Regional Activity Centers, RCLCO
Core to Add Nearly 150,000 HHS by 2030 HH Growth driven by Gen Y, Millennials The D.C. regions historical Favored Quarter has emanated due west. Growth in the post 1960s period followed this trajectory. Boomers and retirees may continue to favor the westward trajectory of historical growth. Younger households and new economy employment is redrawing the investment map. Gen X and Gen Y are driving demand for urban locations. Bulk of household growth through 2030 driven by 18-34 year old households.
Over the past ten years, multifamily units added near Green Line Corridor station areas outpaced Northwest D.C. Red Line station areas. Green Line is Regions Growth Corridor Setting the Bar for Urban and TOD
The New 100% Location? Some Green Line Stations Set Top-Of-Market Prices By 2010, the for-sale multifamily pricing at certain Green Line stations caught up to and even eclipsed pricing in the top of market, high-priced Dupont Circle neighborhood.
Jobs – The Green Line Effect The Green Line – A Magnet for High-Wage Jobs Of the 24,600 net new jobs added to the District of Columbia between 2004 and 2010, 11,200 of them were added within a quarter mile of the Green Line station areas. That represents 46% of the citys total employment growth.
Real Estate, Legal, Architecture, Engineering, Management, and Scientific/Technical jobs all gravitated to the station areas under investigation in numbers that were far in excess of their capture in either NW D.C. Red Line station areas in D.C., Orange Line station areas in D.C., or the R-B corridor in Virginia. ` ` ` ` ` ` Jobs – The Green Line Effect The Green Line – A Magnet for High-Wage Jobs
Neg. HH Growth1-250 New HH 251-500 New HH 501-1,000 New HH >1,000 New HH HH Growth in TOD LOCATIONS Concentrated in Favored Quarter in Last Decade Total Household Growth in TOD Areas 1990-2000 Total Household Growth in TOD Areas 2000-2010 Source: ESRI
Household Growth Projections Little to No Growth Projected for Prince Georges County Households Lost 0- 500 HH Gained 501 – 1,000 HHs Gained 1,001 – 2,000 HHs Gained More than 2,000 HH Gained Total Household Growth Projected by TAZ 2010-2030 Source: MW COG Round 8.0 Forecasting 2010-20 20 2020- 2030 Projected MSA HH Growth 350,000296,000 Projected Prince Georges County HH Growth 25,00018,000
Home Value Comparison Empirical Evidence of TOD Premium in DC MSA Source: ESRI Median Home Value Comparison 2000-2010 144%88%
County Metro Stations Losing Office Jobs Regionally, 13.8% of MSA total employment growth (excl. Wash DC) occurred in TOD locations. In Prince Georges County, only 3.8% of County growth was near a metro station. Trend is even more pronounced in office employment: –12% of MSA office employment located near transit. –Prince Georges TOD locations LOST 2,180 office jobs, despite an overall county gain of 1,970. Total Employment Growth in TOD Areas 2004-2010 13.8%3.8% Office Employment Growth in TOD Areas 2004-2010 12.8% -149% Job GrowthLand Area TotalOffice% land ½ mi from Metro MSA (excl. Wash DC) 293,49083,3400.5% Prince Georges 29,4181,6152.4% Source: InfoUSA; ESRI
Job Growth Projections Opportunity to Capture Regional Growth Jobs Lost 0-500 Jobs Gained 500-2,000 Jobs Gained 2,000 – 3,000 Jobs Gained 3,000+ Jobs Gained Total Employment Growth Projected by TAZ 2010-2030 Source: MW COG Round 8.0 Forecasting 2010- 2020 2020- 2030 Projected MSA Job Growth 628,000519,000 Projected Prince Georges County Job Growth 25,00036,000
Certain Office Users Prefer TOD Locations Prince Georges Losing Out Total Job GrowthOffice & Govt Job Growth MSA (excl. Wash DC)293,49083,340 Metro Station Areas (excl. Wash DC)40,56410,657 Prince Georges County29,4181,615 Contribution to Total Job Growth for Office-Using Employment Sectors 2004-2010 Source: InfoUSA; ESRI
Opportunities and Barriers to Investment Around Prince Georges County Green Line Stations
GSA Will Not Save the Day for Prince Georges County Need to Make the Case Agency by Agency Agency directors make site selection calls more so than GSA Agencies are looking for: Amenities for workers (near-by restaurants and coffee shops, attractive streetscape) Safety Proximity to employees place of residence Synergy with nearby agencies GSA is looking for: County Commitment Financing in place (TIF, other incentive committed) County or State commitment to take new office space (e.g. MD Housing & Community Development helped secure IRS in the new Forest City development at New Carrolton) GSA agreement with WMATA is opportunity for Branch Ave. and Naylor Rd. Metro TOD GSA Office Lease Renewal Schedule Prince Georges County 1.9MM SF of GSA Office Space in Prince Georges County
Federal Anchors DHS Andrews AFB Census Bureau NOAA Federal DOT Bolling AFB 10-minute Drive Areas DHS; St Elizabeths Andrews AFB Overlapping Area Growing Federal Anchor Tenants How can study area benefit from proximity? Source: ESRI; RCLCO
Public Agency Land Ownership Over 1/3 of of study area belongs to public agencies
No Hierarchy of Place Scattershot Development Patterns Class A Class B Class C Office Stock in Submarket by Building ClassMSA Class A Office Clusters
Newest Shopping Center in Study Area Built in 1990 Marlow Heights Built 1960; 500,000 SF Iverson Plaza Built 1985; 18,000 SF Sams Shopping Plaza Built 1985; 12,000 SF Silver Hill Station Built 1990; 36,000 SF Silver Hill Shopping Center Built 1990; 32,000 SF Suitland Shopping Center Built 1940; 45,000 SF Select Retail Developments in Study Area 2011 Source: Reis SubmarketTotal Retail New Retail South Prince Georges Submarket 64 SF/HH0 SF/HH Prince Georges County 74 SF/HH10 SF/HH Montgomery County 62 SF/HH2 SF/HH Washington DC 16 SF/HH5 SF/HH Arlington County 36 SF/HH3 SF/HH Note: New retail defined as centers constructed after 2000. Statistics only reflect retail SF in managed retail centers.
Newest Apartments in Study Area Achieving Strong Rents 1/ Station Square commands the highest $/SF in the Suitland station area at $1.59/SF; however, this is misrepresentative of the market as its absolute rent is a $250 discount to The Verona. Source: Reis Select Apartment Communities in Study Area 2011 Metro Place at Town Center 297 units Built: 2007 6.5% Vacancy $1.70/SF Chelsea West 252 units Built: 2009 7.5% Vacancy $1.79/SF Marlborough House, 1963 Carriage Hill, 1964 Top-of-the-Hill, 1961 Marlow Heights I, 1930 Marlow Heights II, 1940 Marlow Plaza, 1964 Hickory Hill, 1966 The Verona, 1965 Station Square, 1962 Windham Creek, 1974 Pinewood Chase, 1972 Ashton Heights, 1970 Forest Hills, 1968 Station AreaTop Community Top Avg RentTop $/SF Southern Ave Forest Hills $997$1.14 Naylor Rd Carriage Hill$1,157$1.55 Suitland /1 The Verona$1,354$1.38 Branch AveChelsea West$1,753$1.79
Fee/Rate per Dwelling Unit (FY 2011) CountyTypeDetached 1 Townhome 2 Multifamily 3 Anne Arundel 4 Impact Fee$9,958$8,976$7,663 CalvertExcise Tax$12,950$10,325$7,750 CarolineExcise Tax$5,000 CarrollImpact Fee$6,836$7,610$2,787 CharlesExcise Tax$12,097$11,473$8,730 DorchesterExcise Tax$3,671 $2,604 FrederickImpact Fee / Excise Tax$15,185$13,089$2,845 HartfordImpact Fee$6,000$4,200$1,200 Howard 4 Excise Tax / Surcharge$4,300$3,763$2,580 Montgomery In Metro Station DistrictImpact Fee$27,626$21,172$14,061 Outside Metro Station DistrictImpact Fee$33,331$25,840$17,692 Prince George's Inside BeltwaySurcharge$10,539 Outside BeltwaySurcharge$20,945 Queen Anne's 4 Impact Fee$8,720$7,630$5,232 St. Mary'sImpact Fee$4,500 TalbotImpact Fee$6,113$4,444 Washington 4 Excise Tax$6,000$5,250$3,600 WicomicoImpact Fee$5,231$1,524 1/ Assumes a 2,000 SF residential unit 2/ Assumes a 1,750 SF residential unit 3/ Assumes a 1,200 SF residential unit 4/ Impact fees/excise tax assessed on a per square foot basis High Permitting Costs in County Detract from New Residential Development
Key Takeaways Region is growing… and recent trends demonstrate that growth will concentrate around Metro Prince Georges County has not captured its fair share of regional growth… and if we do nothing, more household and job loss is projected for the county Higher density, TOD products would generate significant tax revenues to Prince Georges… but market economics do not support development costs today GSA and private sector will not lead new office development today… but are committed to Prince Georges and look to county to signal partnership There is no shortage of retail availability in the Study Area… but the retail stock is aging and nothing new has been built since 1990 Some multi-family for-sale units around Green Line stations achieve top-of-market prices… but price appreciation in Study Area has not kept up with regional average Newer apartment stock in the Study Area commands high rents… but county impact fees make development costs infeasible