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1 CMBS OUTLOOK: 2013 AND BEYOND 18th Annual Fisher Center Real Estate Conference Session 5: Real Estate Finance.

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Presentation on theme: "1 CMBS OUTLOOK: 2013 AND BEYOND 18th Annual Fisher Center Real Estate Conference Session 5: Real Estate Finance."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 CMBS OUTLOOK: 2013 AND BEYOND 18th Annual Fisher Center Real Estate Conference Session 5: Real Estate Finance

2 2 3 A Brief History of CMBS

3 CMBS Spread Projections in 2013 CMBS spreads will continue to decline in 2013, although at a slower pace than in 2012, due to: – Historically low rates – Technicals: Reduced securitized products Run off in CMBS – Improving CRE fundamentals – Relative value vs. competing sectors – More readily available leverage – Continued tame spread volatility 3 3

4 CMBS Conduit Lender Competitiveness Growing Wider/volatile CMBS spreads and ineffective loan pipeline hedging tools drove up conduit loan rates during 2H11 – Only effective hedge was building in cushion via a higher rate to absorb the spread volatility – Reduced volatility and strong demand for high-grade risk assets yielded tighter CMBS spreads and sharply lower mortgage rates in 2012 Conduit mortgage rates closing in on portfolio lender rates, but cant touch the GSEs – Conduit rates of 3.90% to 4.50% – Life Co. rates of 3.50% to 4.50% – Regional bank rates of around 5.00% 4 3

5 5 3 2007: $228 Billion Total Issuance 64 Fixed-rate Conduit CMBS – $192b 2 Single-borrower CMBS – $11b 13 Floating-rate CMBS - $20.8b ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2009: $2.74 Billion Total Issuance 3 Single-Borrower CMBS – 144(a) 2 Private Freddie K CMBS ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2010: $11.6 Billion Total Issuance 7 Conduit CMBS – 144(a) 4 Single-borrower /Other CMBS – 144(a) 5 Private Freddie K CMBS ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011: $32.2 Billion Total Issuance 18 Fixed-rate Conduit CMBS – Public, 144(a) 8 Single-borrower /CMBS – Private 144(a) 11 Private Freddie K CMBS ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YTD 2012: $48.0 Billion Total Issuance 27 Fixed-rate Conduit CMBS – Public, 144(a) - $32b 21 Single-borrower /CMBS – Private 144(a) - $10.1b 16 Private Freddie K CMBS - $3.3b 3 Non-Performing CMBS – Private 144(a) - $486mm CMBS Issuance Volumes Show Slow But Consistent Annual Growth

6 CMBS Volume Projections in 2013 CMBS Volume will exceed $70mm in 2013, due to: More competitive CMBS spreads relative to bank and life company lenders High levels of debt and equity capital Increasing property transactions Growing pool of refinanceable loans, particularly given outlook for historically low mortgage rates Increasingly aggressive first mortgage underwriting Expanding subordinate debt markets 6 3

7 Rising Debt and Equity Capital for CRE: Transaction Volume Up from the Trough 7

8 CMBS 3.0 – Increasing Leverage As Per the Rating Agencies 8

9 CMBS Maturities Level Off in 2013 and 2014 Before Heading Into the Wall 9

10 Ability to Refinance Depends on Vintage/Seasoning Majority of loans maturing in 13 originated in 03 and 04 03 loans are structurally more sound, but adverse selection issues weigh on outlook – Amortizing – Higher loan coupons at origination than today – Higher cap rates at origination and thus equity build-up as cap rates lower today $18B of fixed rate 10-year 03 vintage loans to mature in 13 $6.2B of fixed rate 9/10-year 04 vintage loans to mature in 13 10 3

11 CRE Values Remain Depressed Nationally, But Many MSAs in Recovery Mode Commercial Property Prices (as of 10/12) – Lower by 22% from 10/07 peak – Declines vary by asset type/quality/location By Property (peak thru 10/12) – Retail: -35% – Office: -25% – Industrial: -23% – Multifamily: -12% But Recovery Well Underway – National all-property composite has regained 43% of its peak-to-trough loss Core MSAs in Full Recovery, Non Major MSAs Lag – Non-major markets recovered 27% of peak-to-trough loss – Major markets recovered 65% of loss 11 3

12 Improving Commercial Real Estate Valuations– An Uneven Recovery 12

13 CRE Supply Technicals Bode Well for Valuations Retail: Completion taking further dip Office: Completion dip surpassed the previous lows of 1994 and 2004 Industrial: Showing similar trend to office with triple dips at 1993, 2003 and now 2012 Hotels: Showing a great pick-up in completions, at the peak currently Apartments: lowest completions since 1994 13

14 Important Disclosures 14 3 This material is provided for informational purposes only and is intended solely for your use. It may not be quoted, circulated or otherwise referred to without our express consent. This material is a product of Jefferies & Company, Inc. (Jefferies) trading and sales desk personnel. This material is not a research report and the commentary contained herein may contain views that differ from the Jefferies Fixed Income Research Department. Jefferies may have accumulated a long or short position in the subject security or securities or in related financial instruments on the basis of this analysis prior to its dissemination. All prices, yields, estimates and opinions expressed are indicative only and are subject to change without notice. This material is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Additional and supporting information is available upon request. Certain transactions or securities mentioned herein, including those involving future, options, and other derivatives products give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Jefferies transacts business with counterparties on an arms length basis and on the basis that each counterparty is sophisticated and capable of independently evaluating the merits and risks of each transaction and that each counterparty is making an independent decision regarding any transaction. This information is not to be considered an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy the securities or other products discussed herein. Jefferies may have a long or short position in the securities or in related financial instruments or other products discussed herein, and may make purchases from and/or sales to customers on a principal basis or as agent for another person. Jefferies also may have acted as an underwriter of such securities or other products, and may currently be providing investment banking services to the issuers of such securities products. Pursuant to this relationship, Jefferies may have provided in the past, and may provide in the future, financing, advice, and securitization and underwriting services to these clients in connection with which it has received or will receive compensation.

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