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Canadian Travel to the U.S. Presented by: MARK BROWN Office of Travel and Tourism Industries International Trade Administration U.S. Department of Commerce.

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Presentation on theme: "Canadian Travel to the U.S. Presented by: MARK BROWN Office of Travel and Tourism Industries International Trade Administration U.S. Department of Commerce."— Presentation transcript:

1 Canadian Travel to the U.S. Presented by: MARK BROWN Office of Travel and Tourism Industries International Trade Administration U.S. Department of Commerce October 2012 Presented to: Discover America Committee-- CANADA

2 2 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Agenda for Today Fun Facts about Canada Big to Small –Global travel trends –Canada outbound volume and trends –Canada to the U.S. volume and trends –Canadas importance to the U.S. travel industry –Visitation to U.S. states –Canadian visitor profile update and trends Looking ahead Update Q & A

3 3 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Did You Know? Canada Myth-Buster Style China, China, China Compared to China, Canadas 2011 volume is 19X, spending is 3X, and visitor volume growth to 2016 should be 2X. The bulk of Canada visits are influence- able. Similar for China??? U.K., U.K., U.K. More Canadian air travelers to the U.S. than visitors from the U.K. Inbound is flat, just like their apartments. Canada is 1-1-1 #1 visitors ranking #1 visitor spending ranking (attained in 2007) #1 travel balance of trade surplus ranking (attained in 2008) Best Geo Equity All U.S. states benefit from Canadian travelers. Best geo-equity of any country.

4 4 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce OTTIs Canada Travel Program Dedicated OTTI Research Analyst. Monthly U.S. Inbound / Outbound visitor volume by travel segments (with ongoing summary). Annual Report (comprehensive visitor profile). Dedicated section on TINET website. Substantial addition of historical tables and analyses. Nurture relationships with Statistics Canada, CTC, CB-C, CS offices, DiscoverAmerica Committee-Canada. Travel & Tourism Advisory Board consideration for marketing and policy programs. Monitor demographics / economy changes. Your head cheerleader as the Travel Promotion Act of 2009 developments unfold.

5 5 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Global Travel Trends

6 6 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce World Tourism Arrivals & Receipts (1980-2011) Source: U.N. World Tourism Organization 2011 982m 2011 $1030b

7 7 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Top Ten Country Rankings of Global Visitors and Receipts All Countries$1,030 All Countries982 1United States $116 11.3%France808.1% 2Spain$60 5.8%United States626.3% 3France$54 5.2%China585.9% 4China$49 4.7%Spain575.8% 5Italy$43 4.2%Italy464.7% 6Germany$39 3.8%Turkey293.0% 7United Kingdom$36 3.5%United Kingdom293.0% 8Australia$31 3.0%Germany282.9% 9Macau (2010)$28 2.7%Malaysia252.5% 10Hong Kong (China)$27 2.6%Mexico232.4% Destination2011World Destination 2011World RankCountryReceipts*ShareCountryVisitorsShare ($bil)(%)(mil)(%) Source:U.N. World Tourism Organization. *Latest data available and excludes air passenger fares ($36.6 billion for U.S. alone in 2011). World shares based on unrounded data. The United States leads the world in global travel and tourism exports (spending receipts) and ranks 2rd in global visitation.

8 8 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Traveler Volume from Canada to the U.S. (stays of 1 or more nights) Source:Statistics Canada. 2012 YTD INCREASE is 5.1% through June.

9 9 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Trends in Travel from/to Canada (stays of 1 or more nights) Source:Statistics Canada.

10 10 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Canada Outbound / U.S. Share annual growth rates 1999-2011--1+ nights Canadians have been traveling outside Canada! U.S. performance trailed non- U.S. performance in 9 of the past 13 years. Not so the last two years.

11 11 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Canadian Outbound Traveler Volume (percent change same month from previous year) 07 / 0608 / 0709 / 0810 / 0911 / 1012 / 11 Outbound to the U.S. is often inconsistent with outbound to the rest of the world in magnitude…and sometimes in direction of change. Outbound to the U.S. was 70% of all outbound in 2011a proportion that was higher a decade ago.

12 12 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Canada to U.S. 12-month moving average The 12 consecuting months of decline in 2008/2009 was matched by 8 consecutive increases in 2009/2010. The growth is losing momentum…

13 13 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Where are Canadians Traveling? Nearly 70% to U.S….after U.S., all other countries are 1.0 million or fewer. US growth of 2.5M (17%). Top countries:GROWTHRATE –France445,00093% –UK235,00038% –Cuba536,000338% –Mexico337,000121% –Dominican Republic412,000294% –China384,000251% –Italy169,00067% –Hong Kong94,00051% –Germany114,00086% –Jamaica90,00087% Source: UNWTO. Statistical Compendium database. Growth and rate reflect change from 1995-1997 average to 2006-2008 average.

14 14 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce International Total *62,711 5%6% 1Canada21,3377%4% 2Mexico13,4910%5% Overseas **27,8836%9% 3United Kingdom3,835-0%-2% 4Japan3,250-4%14% 5Germany1,8246%12% 6Brazil1,50826%19% 7France1,50412%5% 8South Korea1,1453%12% 9China (PRC)1,08936%42% 10Australia1,03915%6% Origin of Visitor 20112011/2010 12/11 May YTD (000s)(% change) (% change) Top Origin Markets for International Travelers to the U.S. * International travelers include all countries generating visitors to the U.S. ** Overseas includes all countries except Canada and Mexico. Record year for travel to U.S.

15 15 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce 11Italy8926%-1% 12Spain7009%-5% 13India6632%12% 14Netherlands6015%3% 15Venezuela56114%21% 16Argentina51217%20% 17Colombia4970%15% 18Switzerland47722%8% 19Sweden43918%3% 20Ireland347-4%-7% Origin of Visitor 20112011/2010 12/11 May YTD (000s)(% change) (% change) Top Origin Markets for International Travelers to the U.S. Record year for travel to U.S.

16 16 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Total TravelRecordYear ReceiptsTravel Record Origin Country2011Receipts Set($bil) Top Ten Travel Export Markets (2011 & record receipts/year) Canada$24.02011 Japan$14.8$17.81995 United Kingdom$12.0$16.72008 Mexico $9.2$9.72008 Brazil$8.5 2011 China$7.7 2011 Germany$6.3$6.72008 France$5.02011 Australia$5.0 2011 India$4.42011 U.S. TOTAL $152.72011

17 17 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce The Algebra of Canadian Spending

18 18 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Importance of the Canadian Travel Market to the U.S. (2011) Canada accounts for 33.4% of U.S. international visitors (trending higher) and 15.6% of visitor spending (trending higher). …and... –For many destinations, Canadian visitation occurs in non-peak seasons and helps to distribute visitors more uniformly throughout the year. –All states benefit from Canadian travelers! Geographic equity is best among origin countries (27 states of 2+% of total visitors). –Travel exports are 7% of all exports and 43% of services exports to Canada. Rankings: –#1 visitors (21.34 M) (next is Mexico, 13.5M) –#1 spending ($23.96 B)(next is Japan, $14.8B) –#1 travel trade surplus ($16.31 B)(next is Japan, $9.8B)

19 19 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Key Travel Characteristics of Canadian Travelers (2011) Main Trip Purpose –64% Leisure (52% holiday, vacation; 5% 2 nd home; 6% events) (up) –15% Visit Friends or Relatives (VFR) (down) –11% Business (5% meetings; 5% convention; 2% other work) (same) – 10% Other (5% shop; 2% personal; 1% transit; 1% study; 1% other) (up) Origin Province –Ontario 39% of population but 43% of travelers. BC also higher share of visitors than population (13% vs. 18%). State Destinations –A few destinations dominate the numbers. Florida is 17% of visitors, but 37% of visitor-nights due to snowbirds. –Mixed performance among state visitors, visits, and spending. 36 states up in visitor volume. Pacific, New England, East South Central regions down.

20 20 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Visitor- U.S. StateVisitorsNightsSpending (millions)(millions)($billions) TOTAL U.S. (NET)21.34176.11$16.47 1New York3.7010.281.39 2Florida3.3259.624.03 3Washington2.597.490.76 4Michigan ( 1) 1.544.550.44 5Nevada ( 1)1.486.941.37 6California ( 2)1.4813.071.38 7Maine0.953.140.35 8Pennsylvania0.932.240.26 9Montana0.893.410.31 10North Dakota ( 2) 0.771.580.25 Top U.S. State Destinations Visitors, Visitor-Nights, and Spending (2011)

21 21 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Key Travel Characteristics of Canadian Travelers (continued) (2011) Transportation (mode of entry into U.S.) –59% auto (35% plane; 3% bus; 3% other). –71% of business travelers flew. Accommodations –60% hotel/motel (13% friends/relatives; 10% camp/trailer/cabin). –Hotel/motel differs by purpose (90% bus.; 59% leisure; 30% vfr). Stay Length –35% of Canadian state-visits are day trips. –Among overnight trips: 11% are 1-night trips. 6% are 3 weeks or longer. 3+ weeks accounts for 42% of visitor-nights. 8.25 nights average stay length, 9.74 leisure…but this average is misleading…

22 22 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Canadian Nights in the U.S. (among overnight LEISURE visitors--67% of total state visits2011)

23 23 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Key Travel Characteristics of Canadian Travelers -- continued (2011) Spending (source: Statistics Canada; all records) –$16.5 billion (excludes fares to travel to the U.S.) –$1,624 per party –$770 per visitor –$93 per visitor per night –Of the 76% of spending reported with detail: 33% accommodations 22% food & beverage 19% other (souvenirs, shopping, etc) 14% transportation (in U.S.) 12% entertainment

24 24 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Sum of all 18 activities353%253%352%393%217% Go Shopping75%53%70%79%76% Go Sightseeing44%31%35%52%23% Visit Friends Or Relatives35%14%95%24%25% Participate Sports/Out. Activities29%10%24%37%11% Go To A Bar Or Night Club23%36%14%24%14% Visit A Historic Site21%18%18%25%10% Visit A Nat. Or State Nature Park18%8%15%23%8% Visit A Museum Or Art Gallery16%13%15%19%7% Go To A Casino15%8%7%19%10% Attend Cultural Events13%9%10%15%6% Canadian Activity Participation Rates while in the U.S. (2011) ActivityTotalBusinessVFRPleasureOther

25 25 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Visit A Theme Park12%5%7%16%2% Visit A Zoo, Aquar. / Bot. Garden11%6%9%13%4% Golfing9%4%6%12%2% Attend Sports Events9%7%8%10%4% Attend Festivals Or Fairs7%5%7%9%2% Water sports (Canoe, etc.)6%2%5%7%2% Fishing2%0%2%2%0% Downhill Skiing Or Snow Boarding1%0%0%2%0% Hunting0%0%0%0%0% No Activity Stated7%25%4%4%9% Activity Participation Rates (2011) (continued) ActivityTotalBusinessVFRPleasureOther

26 26 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Outlook for Canada Travel to the United States http://redkid.net/generator/8ball/

27 27 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Outlook for Canada Travel to the United States http://redkid.net/generator/8ball/

28 28 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Outlook for Canada Travel to the United States http://redkid.net/generator/8ball/

29 29 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Traveler Volume from Canada to the U.S. (stays of 1 or more nights) Source:Statistics Canada.

30 30 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Factors for 2013 and Beyond Canada Economy –Unemployment 7.2% and still on downward trend with ups and downs. –2012Q1 GDP growth about 2% annualized average, similar to previous quarter, but lower than 2010s 2.5% for the year and 2011s 2.2%. Weak U.S. demand for exports (U.S. economy; exchange rate lower makes imports more expensive) Overstretched households –Household finances??? Conflicting data. –Near-retirees on track regarding retirement planning. –Inflation 3.0% in 2011%, but monthly increases are 1.5%- 2.5% (annualized rate). –Goods exports to U.S. up 14% in 2011, services up 9%.

31 31 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Factors for 2012 and Beyond Exchange Rate

32 32 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Factors for 2013 and Beyond +-Economy +Currency exchange rate +-WHTI (whitty what?) +Air Passenger Taxes in Western European countries +-Promoting the USA (TPA: ++; states/cities: --) Low and slowing growth of U.S. economy. +New duty-free limits (greater than 24-hour stay; June 1, 2012)

33 33 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Updates from Miscellaneous Sources

34 34 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Corporation for Travel Promotion Operating as Brand USA www.the BrandUSA.com ESTA fees collected over the past 12 months is sufficient to provide the maximum funds available to the CTP per TPA legislation, subject to matching fund requirements. May 2012 campaign launch included Canada, U.K., and Japan. $3-$4 million in Canada market! Likely offsets declines in international marketing by U.S. states and cities.

35 35 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Canada on… WWW.TINET.ITA.DOC.GOV

36 36 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Canada on… WWW.TINET.ITA.DOC.GOV This presentation will be added here

37 37 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Canada on… WWW.TINET.ITA.DOC.GOV

38 38 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Canada on… WWW.TINET.ITA.DOC.GOV

39 39 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Summary of Key Findings Global Travel: 2010-2030 annual growth to decline from 4.4% to 2.2%. Canada Travel: Strong 5+% continued growth YTD (Jul) to USA following 7% continued growth in 2011. Non-U.S.2011 also up. New USA visitor volume annual records expected! Canada Rankings: #1 visitors, #1 spending, #1 travel trade balance. Profile: travel attributes mostly stable. Watch increases in travel party spending, casino, souvenir/shopping spending, average stay length. Decline in outdoor activities. ALL these trends continued in 2011!!! Forecast: Favorable outlook>>economy, currency exchange rate, TPA!! WHTI: Phase III June 2009 full implementation now 3 years behind us. Travel Promotion Act: Brand USA multi-million marketing launch in May 2011. MVB is head cheerleader for promoting travel to the USA.

40 40 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Summary of Why Canada! Top dog: #1 in visitors and visitor spending and travel trade balance. Geo-equity: Best of any visitor origin country. On the Radar Screen: White House favored Sector; BrandUSA marketing. Shoulder season: helps fulfill many destinations expansion goals. Open wallets: $$$ per-visitor per-night big growth in 2011. Comparisons to other countries is not valid due to short-term stays bringing down average. Emphasize ROI (not R) or $/V/night (not $/V) Economics: Economy O.K., but looking sprightly compared to Europe. International!!!!: Canada is a big part of the general story of international (growing) importance. Is the DOMESTIC industry mature from an industry life-stage perspective??? Most of the messages coming from the US Travel Association pertain to international travel. 4% of travelers/17% of traveler spending.

41 41 Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Thank You! Questions? MARK BROWN Office of Travel and Tourism Industries International Trade Administration U.S. Department of Commerce Phone:202-482-4754 mark.brown@trade.gov http://tinet.ita.doc.gov


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