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Monitoring Trade Performance in the context of Aid for Trade How ITC can contribute.

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Presentation on theme: "Monitoring Trade Performance in the context of Aid for Trade How ITC can contribute."— Presentation transcript:

1 Monitoring Trade Performance in the context of Aid for Trade How ITC can contribute

2 Areas where ITC can contribute 1.Trade-related information & indicators 2.Analysis of trade performance 3.Qualitative evaluation on effectiveness of aid for trade

3 1. Trade-Related Information & Indicators Trade Map A database and analytical web application covering the trade flows and indicators of trade performance for 220 countries and territories Market Access Map A database and analytical web application on customs tariffs applied by 185 countries and faced by 239 countries and territories. It includes ITC pioneered methodologies / calculations of ad valorem equivalent tariffs allowing protection levels to be aggregated for any product or country group Investment Map A database and analytical web-based application that combines information on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), trade, market access and foreign affiliate company data to help in FDI promotion strategies. It can also be used to analyse performance in attracting FDI. Trade Competitiveness Map An interactive web application ranking countries trade performance from a static and dynamic perspective at a national or sectoral level across a wide range of trade related indicators


5 Trade-Related Indicators & Analysis: Examples of ITC Collaborations World Tariff Profile A joint publication of ITC, WTO & UNCTAD profiling tariff structures of over 150 countries Millennium Development Goals Tracking progress on market access for developing countries and LDCs World Economic Forum Trade and market access indicators for the Global Enabling Trade Report 2008 World Bank Trade and market access indicators for the World Trade Indicators publication and web site

6 2. How to Assess Trade Performance? Size of exports: –In absolute or relative terms (e.g. USD vs per capita)? Dynamism of exports: –Growth in absolute or relative terms? Extent of diversification of export portfolio: –Size of export portfolio in terms of products and markets? –Degree of concentration on top products and markets…? Composition of export portfolio: –Products for which world demand is strong and/or growing? –Commodities where country is a price taker and cost competition is critical? –Products that are strongly differentiated and less vulnerable to price shocks? –Products with high value addition, economies of scale ….? –Services? Destination markets for exports: –Slow growing vs fast growing? –Markets where buyer preferences are highly elaborated? –Stable vs risky…?

7 Export Diversification: products and markets CountryNumber of products exported Number of product- markets Number of markets (unweighted average) United States4,931226, China4,871253, India4,582118, Singapore4,39270, Taiwan (Province of China)4,26187, South Africa4,24554, United Arab Emirates4,21238, Rep. of Korea4,20878, Malaysia4,17753, Mexico4,11135, Thailand3,99367, (…) Maldives Wallis and Futuna Sao Tome and Principe Western Sahara441.0

8 Exports per capita versus Growth of exports

9 Export portfolio of products: Size versus diversification

10 Export diversification: Products versus markets

11 Considerations when using trade indicators Partial view of reality: Aggregate value cannot be fully interpreted without examining what is happening at a more detail level –An overall average performance may hide excellent performance in some sectors or regions & poor in others –Role of multinational firms in country performance Interpretation is not always clear –Is more always better (e.g. export diversification)? Time dimension –Weak performance in absolute terms but growing rapidly Analysing the countrys performance relative to its `real` competitors –Situation relative to the world or countries that resemble you e.g. export portfolio, economic and geographic situation (per capita income, size, landlocked, terrain), culture….. Cant capture the value addition of exports –The same USD of exports may correspond to very different value addition depending on the amount of intermediate goods imported e.g. assembly work vs full value chain taking place in the country

12 3. Deepening trade performance analysis with domestic survey Surveys of enterprises on: –Domestic supply conditions –Competitiveness –Socio economic impact of the sector (job creation, gender, rural development etc) Interviews with local experts / stakeholders (ministries, industry associations, chambers of commerce / TPOs) –Business environment conducive to export –Legal framework –Fiscal environment –Political environment

13 Possible Indicators Trade Performance and Export Diversification –Export value –Exports per capita –Trade or Current account balance / GDP –Growth of exports and per capita exports –Share of top 3 products in countrys total exports –Share of top 3 markets in countrys total exports –Number of exported products –Average number of markets by product –Share of dynamic products (or product-markets) in total exports –Share of high technology products in exports Market Access –Tariffs faced for agricultural products –Tariffs faced for non-agricultural products –Tariffs faced (weighted by import structure of importers) –Tariffs faced (weighted export structure of exporters) Investment & Trade –FDI instock / GDP (broken down by agriculture, manufacturing & other) –FDI / GDP vs Exports / GDP

14 Evaluating Effectiveness of Aid for Trade – An infrastructure of partnerships in developing countries ITC can mobilise its network to address questions around Aid for Trade e.g.: –How conducive is the environment for export in your country ? –To what extent has aid for trade in your country helped your exports? ITCs network includes : –Policy Makers e.g. national ministries, trade negotiators etc –Trade Promotion and Trade Support Institutions –Industry Associations through ITC Sector Programmes –National Data Providers –Enterprises (Surveys on local supply conditions, NTMs etc) –Periodic Client Surveys

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