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São Paulo | Rio de Janeiro | Brasília | Curitiba | Porto Alegre | Recife | Belo Horizonte London | Lisbon | Beijing | Shanghai | Miami | Buenos Aires Durval.

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Presentation on theme: "São Paulo | Rio de Janeiro | Brasília | Curitiba | Porto Alegre | Recife | Belo Horizonte London | Lisbon | Beijing | Shanghai | Miami | Buenos Aires Durval."— Presentation transcript:

1 São Paulo | Rio de Janeiro | Brasília | Curitiba | Porto Alegre | Recife | Belo Horizonte London | Lisbon | Beijing | Shanghai | Miami | Buenos Aires Durval de Noronha Goyos Jr. São Paulo, August 6th, 2010. Current Economic Situation of Brazil and the Sino-Brazilian economic and commercial relations and its future perspectives

2 1.Economic Fundamentals; 2.Foreign Trade; 3.Brazil and China: Market Aspects and Features; 4.Sino-Brazilian Bilateral Cooperation. IndexIndex

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5 Economic Growth of China (% change of GDP) Source: IMF *Estimate Economic Fundamentals

6 Economic Growth of Brazil (GDP – Real Growth Rate) (%) Source: IBGE *Estimate: Central Bank of Brazil

7 Total GDP: US$ 8.789 trillion (2009) Total GDP: US$ 8.789 trillion (2009) GDP per capita: US$ 6.600 (2009) GDP per capita: US$ 6.600 (2009) Economic Fundamentals GDP Growth Purchase Power Parity of China Source: IMF

8 Economic Fundamentals GDP Growth Purchase Power Parity of Brazil Total GDP: US$ 2.025 trillion (2009) Total GDP: US$ 2.025 trillion (2009) GDP per capita: US$ 10.200 (2009) GDP per capita: US$ 10.200 (2009) Source: CIA World Book

9 200420052006200720082009 GDP(trillion) 1,601,902,302,603,413,68 GDP Growth (%) 1010,110,511,111,511,1 Population(billion) 1,2981,3061,3131,3211,3301,338 GDP per capita (mil) 1,2401,4731,7701,9842,5832,787 US$ Economic Fundamentals GDP x Population China Source: IMF

10 US$ Economic Fundamentals GDP x Population Brazil 200420052006200720082009 GDP (billion) 663,48821,0061,300 1,380 Population (million) 181,5185,5186,7188,9196,3198,7 GDP per capita (mil) 3,664,775,416,9110,300*10,200* Source: IBGE * PPP Source: CIA world factbook

11 Year Value (US$ Billion) 2001149,9 2003149,4 2004197,8 2005233,3 2006252,8 2007305,6 2008363 2009379,8 * 2010 387,77 Economic Fundamentals Foreign Debt China Source: CIA world factbook * The Global Times

12 Year Value (US$ Billion) 2000200 2001232 2002251 2003222,4 2004214,9 2005219,8 2006188 2007176,5 2008229,4 2009 262,9 2010*225,172 Source: CIA world factbook * Estado de S. Paulo Newspaper Economic Fundamentals Foreign Debt Brazil

13 YearUS$ Trillion 20050,818 20061,066 20071,528 20081,930 20092.399 20102.454 Economic Fundamentals International Reserves China Source: Peoples Bank of China * Estimate

14 US$ Trillion Economic Fundamentals International Reserves China Source: Peoples Bank of China * Estimate

15 YearUS$ Billion 200553,799 200685,839 2007180,334 2008193,783 2009238,520 June 2010253,114 Economic Fundamentals International Reserves Brazil Source: Central Bank of Brazil and Financial Times * Estimate

16 US$ Billion Economic Fundamentals International Reserves Brazil Sources: Central Bank of Brazil and Financial Times * Estimate

17 Economic Fundamentals Evolution of Inflation China (%) Source: IMF * IMF staff estimate

18 Economic Fundamentals Evolution of Inflation Brazil (%) Source: Central Bank of Brazil

19 YearTotal 200352,7 200453,5 200564,5 200682,4 200789,2 US$ Billion Economic Fundamentals Chinese Foreign Direct Investments Abroad Source: Peoples Bank of China

20 YearTotal 20024,73 20030,46 200414,30 200510,06 200634,09 200711,65 *20082,54 US$ Billion Economic Fundamentals Brazilian Foreign Direct Investments Abroad Source: Central Bank of Brazil * in JAN 2008

21 US$ Billion Economic Fundamentals Brazilian Foreign Direct Investments Abroad Source: Central Bank of Brazil * in JAN 2008

22 YearTotal 200218,7 200312,9 200420,2 200521,5 200622,7 200733,7 200843,9 200930,4 US$ Billion Economic Fundamentals Foreign Direct Investments in Brazil Source: Central Bank of Brazil *Estimate

23 US$ Billion Economic Fundamentals Foreign Direct Investments in Brazil Source: Central Bank of Brazil *Estimate

24 Economic Fundamentals Sources: Ministry of Commerce of Popular Republic of China US- China Business Council * FDI statistics explicitly include financial and non-financial FDI Foreign Direct Investments in China YearTotal 200253.51 200360.63 200460.33 200569.47* 200682.66* 200882.66*

25 Economic Fundamentals Chinese Direct Investments in Brazil Source: Central Bank of Brazil YearTotal 200315,51 20044,35 20057,56 20066,65 200724,30 200838,42 200982,01 US$ Million

26 Economic Fundamentals Chinese Direct Investments in Brazil Source: Central Bank of Brazil * Estimate US$ Million

27 Economic Fundamentals US$ x YUAN Source: Peoples Bank of China

28 Economic Fundamentals R$ x YUAN Source: Central Bank of Brazil

29 Economic Fundamentals R$ x US$ Source: Central Bank of Brazil

30 CountryNominal RateInflationReal Rate Turkey6.5%7%(0.5)% Brazil9.5%4%5.5% Mexico4.5%4%(0.5)% South Africa6.5%7%1.5% India5%11%9% Euro Area1%1.4%0.4% Japan0,10%-1%1.1% China5,3%-1%6.3% USA0.25%-1%(0,75%) Russia8%12%(4%) Economic Fundamentals Worlds Interest Rates Source: World Bank

31 Economic Fundamentals Sources of Energy Source: Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy

32 2005 – 1.85 million barrels a day 2006 – Brazil achieves self sufficiency in oil 2007 – Discovery of Tupi oilfield with estimated 10 billion of barrels of oil. The discovery could double the Brazilian reserves. Discovery of Iara oilfield with 5 million barrels of oil. Economic Fundamentals Oil Production in Brazil 2008 – Discovery of Carioca oilfield with estimated 70 billion barrels of oil. Discovery puts Brazil's oil reserves among the world's largest 1 2010 – 3.4 million barrels a day 2 Sources: (1) Financial Times, July 08, 2008; and (2) Petrobras

33 1Saudi Arabia264 2Iran130 3Iraq105 4Kuwait100 5UAE95 6Brazil90 7Venezuela80 8Russia75 9Libya37 10Kazakhstan37 11Nigeria35 12USA27 In Billion of Barrels Economic Fundamentals World´s Oil Reserves Sources: The Economist and Financial Times

34 Source: CIA Factbook Economic Fundamentals Oil Production and Demand in China Oil in China (2008) Production3,79 million bbl /day Consumption7,999 million bbl/day Exports388,000 bbl/day Imports4.393 million bbl/day Oil proved reserves15.7 billion bbl

35 Products Position between main exporters % of Total Global Exports Orange Juice1st81% Poultry1st35% Sugar1st33% Coffe1st30% Tabacco1st27% Beef1st24% Ethanol1st13% Soya2nd32% Soya Oil2nd28% Pigs3rd11% Cotton3rd5% Economic Fundamentals Brazilian Agribusiness Source: Icone Brasil

36 GDP of Brazil´s APIB do Agribusiness was US$ 316 billion in 2007, having grown 5,52% in relation to 2006. Brazilian Agribusiness represented in 2007 30% of the country´s total GDP, 37% of jobs and 35% of total exports. In 2007, the balance of trade of the Brazilian Agribusiness was positive in US$ 50 billion. Economic Fundamentals Source: Icone Brasil Brazilian Agribusiness

37 394 269 176 220 169 138 76 71 In hectares Economic Fundamentals World´s Areas per Expansion of Agriculture Source: FAO/IBGE

38 Year Exports US$ FOB Imports US$ FOB Balance US$ FOB Current of Trade US$ FOB 20050,760,660,101,42 20060,960,790,171,75 20071,210,950,262,16 20081,4351,0740,3612,509 20091,2040,9540,2592,158 US$ Trilion Foreign Trade Totals China Source: Ministry of Commerce of People´s Republic of China

39 US$ Trillion Foreign Trade Totals China Source: Ministry of Commerce of People´s Republic of China

40 Year Exports US$ FOB Imports US$ FOB Balcance US$ FOB Current of Trade US$ FOB 2005118,5273,6044,93192,12 2006137,8091,3546,45229,15 2007160,64120,6240,02281,27 2008197,9173,124,8371,00 2009153,00127,725,30280,70 US$ Billion Foreign Trade Totals Brazil Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry – MDIC

41 US$ Billion Foreign Trade Totals Brazil Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry – MDIC * Estimate

42 Year Exports FOB Imports FOB Balance FOB Current of Trade FOB 20045,443,711,739,15 20056,835,351,4812,18 20068,407,9941116,39 200710,7412,61-1,8623,36 * 20081520-535 US$ Billion Foreign Trade Brazilian Trade Balance with China Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry – MDIC * Estimate

43 US$ Bilhões Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry- MDIC * up to Aug /2008 Foreign Trade Brazilian Trade Balance with China

44 Product US$ FOB Jan/Aug 2008 US$ FOB Jan/Aug 2007 Var. 08/07 % Part. Aug 2008 % Soya4.7062.184115,4739,49 Iron Ore2.6991.97436,6822,65 Oil Derivatives98355876,038,25 Soya Oil662151311,855,22 Industrialized Oil50943018,364,28 Wood474232103,833,98 Foreign Trade Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry – MDIC * Estimate of Jul /2008 Main Brazilian Exports to China US$ Million

45 Products US$ FOB Jan/Aug 2008 US$ FOB Jan/Aug2007 Var. 08/07 %Part.Jan/Aug 2008 % LCD 619288114,594,84 Telephone Parts 59345031,674,63 Coal 408155162,343,19 Mobile Telephones Terminals 20767209,591,62 TV Parts 1779194,971,39 Fertilizers 14325467,591,12 US$ Million Foreign Trade Main Chinese Exports to Brazil Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry – MDIC * Estimate of Jul /2008

46 Foreign Trade Chinese Current of Trade and its Markets Source: Ministry of Commerce of Peoples Republic of China JUN 2008

47 Foreign Trade Brazilian Current of Trade and its Markets Source: MDIC AUG 2008

48 Foreign Trade Chinese Imports by Origin Source: Ministry of Commerce of Peoples Republic of China JUN 2008

49 Foreign Trade Brazilian Imports by Origin Source: MDIC AUG 2008

50 Foreign Trade Chinese Current of Trade by Economic Blocs Source: Ministry of Commerce of Peoples Republic of China JUN 2008

51 Foreign Trade Brazilian Current of Trade by Economic Blocs Source: MDIC AUG 2008

52 US$ billion YearExports Var. % ImportsVar.%BalanceVar.% 2004 3927,3%41,9% 3432,1 2005 4311,8% 56,2% 3812,5% 2006 49 13,4%629,1%4211,2% 2007 58 18,4%827,0%5017,0% *20087020,0%915%6020,0% Foreign Trade * Estimate Brazilian Trade Balance of Agribusiness

53 Foreign Trade * Estimate Brazilian Trade Balance of Agribusiness

54 Destination Exports (US$ million) Var. % 07/06 (b/a) Total Exp. (c) Aggregate Value % 2006 (a)2007 (b)Basic SemiManufactured 1.UK 16.15321.232 31,4440.357 57,4314,5328,04 2. ESA7.370 6.840 -7,19 25.065 19,55 19,70 60,75 3. China3.802 4.691 23,38 10.749 67,69 29,23 3,09 4. Russia3.156 3.402 7,80 3.741 64,37 30,72 4,92 5. Argentina1.571 1.917 21,97 14.417 11,19 6,31 82,50 6. Japan1.491 1.768 18,57 4.321 58,42 14,65 26,93 Foreign Trade Source: Instituto de Economia Aplicada - IEA Main Destinations of Brazils Agricultural Exports

55 Main Destinations of Brazil´s Agricultural Exports Foreign Trade Source: Instituto de Economia Aplicada - IEA

56 Group 20062007 Var. 07/06 % US$ 1,000 Participation % US$ 1,000 Participation % 1. Soya Complex 2.551.168 67,113.155.216 67,2723,68 2. Forest Products 570.647 15,01578.631 12,341,40 3. Beef 378.117 9,95491.230 10,4729,91 4. Tabacco 77.611 2,04271.340 5,78249,62 5. Fruits 51.013 1,3466.027 1,4129,43 Total3.801.726100,004.690.651 100,023,38 Foreign Trade Source: Instituto de Economia Aplicada - IEA Main Brazilian Agribusiness Products Exported to China

57 Source: Instituto de Economia Aplicada - IEA Foreign Trade Main Importers of Brazilian Soya (%)

58 Some Market Aspects Stock Exchange Markets

59 Automotive Products (Million of Unit ) Sales of Cosmetic (US$ Billion) Sales of Computers (Millions of Units) Sales of Mobiles Phones (Millions of Units) Chocolate Consumption (Millions of e Ton) 1 st Japan 11,596 1 st USA 50,5 1 st USA 64 1 st China 547 1 st USA 1.600 2 nd USA 10,781 2 nd Japan 29,8 2 nd China 36 2 nd USA 253 2 nd Germany 1.077 3 rd China 8,882 3 rd Brazil 18,2 3 rd Japan 13 3 rd Indian 234 3 rd United Kingdom 531 4 th Germany 6,213 4 th France 14,1 4 th United Kingdom 11,2 4 th Russian 170 4 th Brazil 410 5 th Brazil 4,100 5 th Germany 13,6 5 th Brazil 10,7 5 th Brazil 121 5 th France 404 Some Market Aspects Ranking 2007

60 Some Market Aspects Steel Production Growth Projection for 2008 Brazil – 10% Brazil – 10% China – 10,8% China – 10,8%

61 Some Market Aspects Naval Industry By 2011, China will be the world´s largest manufacturer of bulk carriers and the second largest in oil tankers. In 2007, Brazilian Naval Industry Grew 74%;

62 Brazils Aeroplane Trade (US$ Million FOB) 200220032004200520062007 Exports 2,799.22,050.03,371.33,302.83,442.54,367.5 Imports 685.0591.3888.3967.71,234.51,593,2 Balance 2,114.21,458.62,482.62,335.12,208.02,774.30 Flow of Commerce 3,484.22,641.34,260.04,270.54,676.05,960.70 Some Market Aspects Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC

63 Some Market Aspects Worlds Availability of Fresh Water Sources: Agência Nacional das Águas do Brasil and Embassy of the Popular Republic of China in Brazil

64 Unemployment rate in Brazil Months of April, May and June – 2002 to 2008 Some Market Aspects Source: IBGE

65 Some Market Aspects Unemployment in China Sources: CIA World Factbook, The Economist Year Unemployment rate Rank Percent change 20069.00%-8.16% 20094.0%450.0% 2010 (est.) 4.30%397.5%

66 Brazil's Social Development: Growth of Class C % of Population 34% 36% 48% Market Aspects Sources: Ipsos Public Affairs and Financial Institution Celetem

67 Bilateral Sino Brazilian Cooperation Political World Trade Agriculture Health Energy Microelectronics Informatics Space

68 Address: 9/ F, Tower II, China Central Place, 79 Jianguo Road, Chaoyang District 100025 – Beijing – China Phone: (86-10) 5920-4499 Fax: (86-10) 5920 - 4222 Noadpek@noronhaadvogados.com.br NORONHA ADVOGADOS The Noronha Advogados office in Beijing was opened in 2009 and has a team of lawyers with fluency in English, Mandarin and Portuguese. Contact: Dora Huiqing

69 Address: 450 Fushan Road Suntime International Mansion, 14 th floor –Room F 200122 Pudong, Xangai, China Phone: (86-21) 6876-6311 Fax: (86-21) 6876-6312 NORONHA ADVOGADOS The Noronha Advogados office in Shanghai was opened in April 2001 and has a team of lawyers with fluency in English, Mandarin and Portuguese. Contact: Gustavo Jacobina Rabello gur@noronhaadvogados.com.br

70 NORONHA ADVOGADOS

71 Durval de Noronha Goyos Jr. dng@noronhaadvogados.com.br www.noronhaadvogados.com.br


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