Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

© 2004 Charles F. Robinson Presentation by Charles F. Robinson Clearwater, FL Forces Shaping the Future of Law Practice Kentucky Bar Annual Convention.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "© 2004 Charles F. Robinson Presentation by Charles F. Robinson Clearwater, FL Forces Shaping the Future of Law Practice Kentucky Bar Annual Convention."— Presentation transcript:

1

2 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Presentation by Charles F. Robinson Clearwater, FL Forces Shaping the Future of Law Practice Kentucky Bar Annual Convention June 24, 2004

3 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Presentation Materials http://CharlieRobinsonFuturist.com/

4 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Todays Agenda Why worry about the future? The 2004 environment Trends v. Cycles How to create your preferred future

5 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Evolution, Revolution or Reinvention? Revolution bottom up Reinvention top down/bottom up Evolution not viable option

6 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson The Big Question Will the Legal Profession Reinvent Itself In Order to Provide Highly Valued Twenty-First Century Services to Twenty-First Century Clients?

7 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson It Feels Like Something is Happening We feel uneasy We feel tentative We feel angry and frustrated There is competition everywhere we turn Will the massive change we are going through continue? Can we return to the way it used to be?

8

9 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson

10

11 Tom Peters predicts Tom Peters predicts Ninety per cent white- collar jobs will disappear in the next ten years. What color collars do lawyers wear? Is there an exception for lawyers?

12 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Nicholas Negroponte Incrementalism is Innovations Worst Enemy

13

14 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Never in history has incumbency been worth less. Examples include:

15 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Peter Drucker Management Inventor What can explain the fact that policies, practices, and behaviors that worked for decades (and in the case of GM are still working well when applied to something new and different) no longer work for the organization in which and for which they were developed?

16 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Polaroid Story

17 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson What Are the Forces Already at Work in Our Profession That Have the Potential to Profoundly Transform Our Professions Structure? Each Force a Discontinuity Examine Implications for Each Discontinuous Force

18 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Current Forces Impacting the Profession Nonlawyer competition Diminished perceived value in attorney services Technology displacement Lawyer supply exceeds demand Discontinuity- Precedent has no value Disintermediation- Out with the middle person

19 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Areas of Practice Family Law –>70% Pro Se Rules of Civil Procedure gone Real Estate –Realtors –Internet Tax and Estate Planning –Wills on-line –IRS electronic tax filing –Century Business/ American Express House Counsel –Trade Association legal advice PI Defense –Insurance companies Litigation –Sport for the wealthy –Contingent Contingent fees

20 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson The real threat is irrelevance.

21 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Chief Justice Major Harding 2/5/2000 Dispute resolution as we know it may be a dinosaur Must look at reforming the jury system The big issue before the court system is relevance

22 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Litigation

23 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Wired Magazine (January, 1998) Guardians of the old order are trying their best to hold back change and preserve their power.

24 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson

25 Stare Decisis- Walking Through Life Backwards

26 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Bill Gates Warning We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.

27 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson There is nothing more difficult to handle, more doubtful of success, and more dangerous to implement than initiating change. Innovation makes enemies of all those who prospered under the old regime. Machiavelli, The Prince

28 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Tom Peters If you dont like change, you are going to like irrelevance even less

29 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Marconi v Sarnoff

30 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home. Ken Olson President, Chairman and Founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977

31 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson This telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us. Western Union internal memo, 1876.

32 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Im just glad itll be Clark Gable whos falling on his face and not Gary Cooper. Gary Cooper on his decision not to take the leading role in Gone With the Wind

33 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Everything that can be invented has been invented. Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, US Office of Patents, 1899

34 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Ten Toxic Assumptions of the Legal Profession

35 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson 1. Effort is equal to value.

36 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson 2. Lawyers have a monopoly on the interpretation of the law.

37 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson 3. The lawyer determines what is value added service.

38 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson 6. The practice of law is a profession and not a business.

39 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson 8. Market needs have nothing to do with the strategy and structure for the delivery of legal services.

40 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson 9. What lawyers have done in the past is the practice of law.

41 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Our Paradigm Our most deeply held, unconscious set of assumptions and values. The things we take for granted. That which determines our expectations, frames the questions we ask, and structures our approach to what we do.

42 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Going Back to Zero Our old strengths offer little protection against the new world. Learning to forget becomes the ideal talent. Discontinuity the Word of the Hour

43 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson The Impossibility Question Search for new paradigms in our organization. What would be the impact of this impossible task if we were able to do it?

44 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Joel Barker Paradigm Principles

45 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Principle 1 Joel Barker cont. New paradigms show up sooner than they are wanted or needed.

46 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Principle 2 Joel Barker cont. The person who is most likely to shift your paradigms will be an outsider.

47 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Principle 3 Joel Barker cont. You dont have to be the paradigm shifter to get all the advantages.

48 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Principle 4 Joel Barker cont. Our old paradigms keep us from seeing new paradigms.

49 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson The Paradigm Paradox We need our paradigms to make sense of the world, yet because of these we become trapped or constrained. If we want to change the structure and leadership of our organizations, we have to address change at this fundamental paradigmatic level. We have to change the thinking behind our thinking. Dana Zohar, Rewiring the Corporate Brain

50 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Disruptive v. Sustaining Technology Christensen Innovators Dilemma/Solution Businesses fail because of good management and responding to customer/client needs

51 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Principle 1- Businesses Depend on Customers (Clients) for Resources If you dont invest resources that match customers willingness to spend, you dont survive. These firm investments aimed at customer wants make it nearly impossible to invest in what customers dont want until they want them. Only way to future may be to set up autonomous firm around the disruptive technology.

52 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Principle 2- Small Markets Dont Solve Growth Needs of Established Firms Disruptive technologies allow new markets to emerge Emerging markets hurt growth objectives for large firms

53 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Principle 3- Markets That Dont Exist Cant Be Analyzed Market researchers and business planners not effective Yet there are huge advantages for being first to market

54 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Principle 4 Technology Supply May Not Equal Market Demand Technology improvements may exceed market demand or absorption rate

55 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Sustaining vs. Disruptive Technologies Sustaining technologies improve performance of established products or services. Disruptive technologies result in worse near term performance. –Precipitate firm failures –Valued by new and fringe clients –Usually cheaper, simpler, smaller, easier to use

56 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson NH BAR OUTREACH 2000 Can the legal profession survive the dot.comet?

57 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Lawyers charge excessively and add significantly to the cost of a legal need. Lawyers add significantly to the time it takes to satisfy a legal need. Lawyers complicate already- complicated problems. Results of a poll conducted by Franklin Pierce Law Center graduates of their clients:

58 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Law School Client Survey cont Lawyers don't take time to learn enough about a client's legal need, and then do not adequately address the need. When they address the need, they are paternalistic and arrogant. Lawyers don't know when to step aside. Lawyers' expertise in litigation and advocacy impedes problem solving.

59 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Jennifer James - Guild Mentalities Education Medicine Law

60 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Guild Power Dimensions Guild Power Dimensions 1.Power and control over the association- right to create own rules –Bar ethics rules promulgated by court, not legislature or executive branch 2.Control over the workplace –Number and status of workers Bar examination and education requirements –Pricing of output Bar minimum fee schedules Prohibition on advertising

61 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Guild Power Dimensions Cont 3. Control over the market –UPL civil and criminal statutes (except Arizona) –Power to define law practice 4. Power over the relation between the guild and the state –State had to grant monopoly to the bar State trying to undo bar regulation ever since –Right to control availability = right to set the price Death of the Guilds- Professions, States, and the Advance of Capitalism 1930 To the Present Elliott A. Krause 1996

62 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Guild Status Decline Goldfarb 421 U.S. 773(1975) –End of pricing control Bates 433 U.S. 350 (1977) –Advertising allows for competition Guild status gone since 1975 but many in denial in 2004

63 The Cobb Value Curve Competitive Positioning HIGH LOW PRICE INSENSITIVE PRICE SENSITIVE RELATIVE VALUE ADDED VOLUME OF WORK AVAILABLE NUCLEAR EVENT HIRED FOR EXPERIENCE BRAND NAME SERVICES COMMODITY SERVICES 0% 100% 20% 40% Internet

64 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Cycles and Trends

65 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Trends v. Cycles Cycle says wait it out and it will come back. –Weather –Markets Trend says will not likely return to status quo –We must deal with it or –Let it take us wherever the trend goes Watch out for Wild Cards

66 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Trend or Cycle 1.Tort reform

67 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson 1.Tort Reform Economically destructive litigation US most expensive tort system in the world $179 billion 2002 direct costs –$636 per capita –150% of amount spent on pharmaceuticals Bills pending in 20 states 11 states have passed legislation Trends Volume 1, Issue 3, July 2003

68 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Tort Reform Targets Joint and several liability Size of jury awards ($250,000) pain & suffering Asbestos liability Medical malpractice Judicial review of jury awards

69 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Trend Newsletter Predictions Asbestos special legislation limiting awards by 2005 Pain & suffering caps state/federal 2006 Federalize class-actions over $2 million Federal preemption of auto insurance litigation to include no fault coverage for pain and suffering

70 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Update January 2004 Associated Press January 8, 2004 Senate compromise to keep some cases in state court likely to allow bill to pass. Curb on class-action suits Limit attorney fees for coupon settlements –Link fees to redemption rate of coupon or hours x rate

71 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Senator Chuck Schumer, D NY Lawsuits have gotten out of control in America and something needs to be done to rein them in. While he believes in the right to sue, he also believes that there have been excesses and there ought to be reform. Phil Singer, Schumer spokesman. AP 1-8-2004

72 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Lawyers Fees Come Under Fire Miami Herald 1-4-2004 Massachusetts lawyers seek $2.1 billion paycheck for winning $8.3 billion settlement. –Argue $775 million insufficient Efforts in Florida and 13 other states to rein in contingency fees. Law is supposed to serve people, not lawyers Nancy Udell, Gen. Counsel Common Good ABA Tort Trial and Insurance Practice Section appoints 11 lawyer task force

73 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson President Bush- January 26, 2004 Lawyers walk away with up to 40% of every settlement….for frivolous suits…driving a wedge between them (doctor) and patient. Unnecessary lawsuits drive docs to prescribe drugs and procedures to avoid lawsuits.

74 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Tort Reform- Trend or Cycle? Tort Reform- Trend or Cycle? If cycle make low priority If trend firm must actively decide –Effect on practice Strategic Plan to –Make tort practice cost effective and profitable to firm –Reinvent the practice and pricing, or –Find a new practice area to replace tort practice

75 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson 2.Declining image of bar/lawyers Trend or Cycle 1.Tort reform

76 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson 2. Declining Image of Bar Associations from ABA to State and Local-Trend or Cycle? What is greatest problem facing the bar and its members today, ignorance or apathy?

77 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Battle Lines – London Times 7-29-03 Law Society looking extinction in the face Government wants to strip bar of self regulatory powers Client complaints up 50% Banks, insurance companies and building societies to handle probate Government wants one-stop shops

78 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Tesco Plan for Legal Reform- The Guardian 7-25-03 Lord Falconer- probate by banks, building societies, insurance companies Government favors one-stop shops Government to regulate not lawyers but legal services Big corporations to be allowed to practice law. Existing regulation framework is outdated, inflexible, over complex, insufficiently transparent

79 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Revolution Overseas- December 2003 ABA Journal- Shot Through Hull Government commissioner to oversee grievance process –Strip the bar (Law Society) of regulatory powers Liberalize MDP –Various pros mix and mingle money –Banks and insurance companies to sell legal services and software.

80 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Lord Falconer of Thoroton December 3, 2003 Justice, Rights and Democracy Justice for all as central as education for all That means a justice system that works… and in which people have faith. Both of these objectives- better service in the justice system, better government and democracy in the political system- are driven by one overriding point- serving the public.

81 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Lord Falconer Continues For too long, the courts, the law, the justice system and constitutional issues have been seen as the preserve of their key interest groups. They are not. They play a vital part in everyones daily life…..

82 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson UPL- A Dog That Wont Hunt Gemini Ventures of Tampa Inc. v. Hamilton Engineering 26 Fla L. Weekly 927 (2 nd DCA April 2001). We, as part of the legal profession, should be ever vigilant to protect the public from those who seek to provide legal services without the requisite training and knowledge. However…

83 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson we must also recognize that there are people with experience and expertise capable of providing valuable service to persons involved in legal proceedings without crossing the line between legitimate consulting and the unauthorized practice of law. We do a disservice to the public if we prevent access to these services.

84 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson UPL Problems What is PL? No harm no foul? Protect public or profession? Protecting anybody? Limiting competition from nonlawyers?

85 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson ABA Task Force on the Model Definition of the Practice of Law Presumed law practice when Giving advice or counsel regarding legal rights and responsibilities Selecting, drafting, or completing legal documents that affect legal rights of person Representing person before adjudicative body, including but not limited to, preparing of documents or conducting discovery, or Negotiating legal rights or responsibilities on behalf of a person

86 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Happy Days Are Here Again!!?? Justice Department and FTC Proposed definition would reduce competition and force consumers to pay higher prices for a smaller range of services Prohibit lay service providers from closing real estate loans Prohibit accountants, investment bankers and insurance adjusters from advising clients about various laws.

87 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Utah Definition Appearing as an advocate in any criminal proceeding or before any court of record in this state in a representative capacity on behalf of another person. Cant claim to be a lawyer if you are not by using JD, Esq, attorney, attorney-at- law

88 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Mary Ryan, ABA Committee on Delivery of Legal Services A lawyer is best defined as someone who provides the best services in a free market, not the only services in a protected market.

89 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Are We Really Prisoners of Nostalgia??

90 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Changing Role of Bar and Lawyers in General- Trend or Cycle? Should we be concerned with New Hampshire survey? Should the firm look to different structure to practice and expand horizons to –Ancillary Business –MDP –Local, regional, national, global alliances Offense or defense?

91 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson MPJMDPABP What Does It Mean For Your Practice? SA

92 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson

93 How Much of Your Day Will Be Spent on Nonlegal Services? Services that might reasonably be performed in conjunction with and in substance are related to the provision of legal services, that are not prohibited as UPL when provided by a nonlawyer. All nonlegal services are fair game for any provider including out of state lawyers

94 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Ancillary Business Entity separate from law firm providing law-related (nonlegal) services

95 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Ancillary Business ABA History 1991 Litigation Section version 1994 Current Version Florida Committee trying to go back to 1991 version Julie Williamson demanded RPPTL presence on committee AB but no MDP

96 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Compare MDP and AB MDP for all size firms- not just big 5 (4?) AB easier for large firms –Separate space –Separate entity –More management

97 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Did Arthur Andersen Demise End MDP? Who were Enrons lawyers? –Arthur Andersen? –Vinson & Elkins et al? An imaginary scene at Enron outside counsel offices.

98 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson 3.MJP Trend or Cycle 1.Tort reform 2.Declining image of bar/lawyers

99 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson 3. Multijurisdictional Practice Florida Rule 4-5.5(a) UPL –Lawyer shall not practice in jurisdiction where doing so violates the regulation of the legal profession in that jurisdiction 5.5(b) assist another in UPL Birbrower et. al v. Superior Court of Santa Clara County, 949 P.2d 1 (Cal 1998)

100 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson MJP Issues Protection of public and clients- Home state/Host state –Or is the rule protectionist for host state lawyers? Host state interests –Competence- Model Rule 1.1- measure by Bar exam? Accredited law school graduate? CLE requirements?

101 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson ABA RPPTL Position Many federally consistent issues in estate planning and administration Research allows competent preparation in out of state matters Model Rule 1.1 Competence

102 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson New Jersey MJP Arguments April 2003 Specific knowledge of New Jersey law, or the laws of any state, is overemphasized. –You go to the computer or have someone do it for you. –What are we, Planet New Jersey?

103 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson New Jersey MJP contd There are 60,000 New Jersey residents working in Philadelphia, and many thousands more in New York state. What is rationale to place arbitrary borders on regional practice?

104 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Update January 23 Connecticut attempts to seal border from out of state encroachment Model Rule 1.1

105 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Breaking News-Pennsylvania Adopts MJP Rule 4-30-2004 Out of state lawyer may provide legal services on temporary basis if 1.Pennsylvania lawyer associated 2.Related to pending or potential proceeding in another state 3.Related to ADR without pro hac vice necessity 4.Not in paragraph 2 or 3 and arise out of or are reasonably related to the lawyers practice where admitted.

106 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson MJP and reciprocity - breaking down the borders The essential elements for reciprocal admission of Washington, Oregon, Utah and Wyoming attorneys in Idaho are: Graduation from an ABA approved law school. Prior passage of the Washington, Oregon, Utah and/or Wyoming bar examination. Three years of practice in Washington, Oregon, Utah or Wyoming. Good moral character. Fifteen hours of CLE –Practice –procedure –ethics

107 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Borderless World Regional/National reciprocity 26 states now GATS Treaty Drivers license approach in 5-10 years

108 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson MJP- Trend or Cycle If trend several questions what are strategic threats and opportunities for the bar/firms How can you take advantage of national positioning? –Is firm ready to model a national presence without physical offices everywhere? Will bar/firm deny change possibilities? –Railroads –Western Union Opportunity for firm –Technology to identify differences in state law

109 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson 4.Technology changing the practice Trend or Cycle 1.Tort reform 2.Declining image of bar/lawyers 3.MJP

110 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Law Office of the Future A computer + a dog + a lawyer. The computer will practice law. The dog is there to keep the lawyer away from the computer. The lawyer is there to feed the dog. Dr. Peter Bishop, Associate professor of Human Sciences University of Houston-Clear Lake

111 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson 4. Technology Disintermediation Internet Available to Everyone –Wills, Tax Return Prep On-line Like Printing Press to Church/Temple Literacy Brings New Relationships

112 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson The Future of Law: Facing the Challenges of Information Technology Legal Profession Will Change Beyond Recognition Three Types of Legal Service –Traditional –Commoditized –Latent Richard Susskind Traditional Commodity Latent

113 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Susskinds Key Questions Likely developments in IT over next 10 years Possibilities for law practice in light of IT changes Future for lawyers and what part is the world wide web likely to play

114 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Transforming the Law; Essays on Technology, Justice and the Legal Marketplace- Richard Susskind 2000 Introduces the Susskind Grid First work tying together technology use and strategic future planning for lawyers

115 External KnowledgeTechnology Internal Information Figure 1.1 The Grid Richard Susskind 2000 C

116 External KnowledgeTechnology Internal Information Figure 1.2 The Quadrants external technology links internal use of technology internal management of knowledge provision of access to knowledge C Richard Susskind 2000

117 Client KnowledgeTechnology Internal Information Figure 1.4 Examples of systems document management practice management human resource management marketing databases hardware networks operating systems online financial reporting status reporting deal-rooms document archives electronic mail know-how databases template libraries precedent libraries Intranet services 2nd generation web sites virtual lawyers online legal guidance systems expert systems C Richard Susskind 2000

118 Client KnowledgeTechnology Internal Information Figure 1.5 Business impact keeping basic systems running risk management providing robust infrastructure new, improved ways of delivering traditional service efficiency productivity leveraging knowledge new service opportunities new business models turning knowledge into value C Richard Susskind 2000

119 Client KnowledgeTechnology Internal Information Figure 1.3 The Legal Grid client relationship systems back-office technologyinternal knowledge systems online legal services C Richard Susskind 2000 Upper right

120

121 Client KnowledgeTechnology Internal Information Figure 1.3 The Legal Grid client relationship systems back-office technologyinternal knowledge systems online legal services C Richard Susskind 2000 Upper right

122

123 Client KnowledgeTechnology Internal Information Figure 1.3 The Legal Grid client relationship systems back-office technology internal knowledge systems online legal services C Richard Susskind 2000 New Change

124

125 Client KnowledgeTechnology Internal Information Figure 1.3 The Legal Grid client relationship systems back-office technologyinternal knowledge systems online legal services C Richard Susskind 2000

126 Client KnowledgeTechnology Internal Information Figure 2.6 Sustaining and disruptive technologies Sustaining Disruptive C Richard Susskind 2000

127 Client KnowledgeTechnology Internal Figure 1.12 Strategy 1 Consolidation Strategy 1 Consolidation C Richard Susskind 2000

128 Client KnowledgeTechnology Internal Figure 1.13 Strategy 2 Putting the house in order Strategy 2 Putting the house in order C Richard Susskind 2000

129 Client KnowledgeTechnology Internal Figure 1.14 Strategy 3 Client relationship systems Strategy 3 Client relationship systems C Richard Susskind 2000

130 Client KnowledgeTechnology Internal Figure 1.15 Strategy 4 Knowledge management Strategy 4 Knowledge management C Richard Susskind 2000

131 Client KnowledgeTechnology Internal Figure 1.16 Strategy 5 Legal electronic commerce Strategy 5 Legal electronic commerce C Richard Susskind 2000

132 Client KnowledgeTechnology Internal Figure 1.17 Strategy 6 Entrepreneurial Strategy 6 Entrepreneurial C Richard Susskind 2000

133 Client KnowledgeTechnology Internal Figure 1.18 Strategy 7 Progressive Strategy 7 Progressive C Richard Susskind 2000

134 Client KnowledgeTechnology Internal Figure 1.19 Strategy 8 Complete Commitment Strategy 8 Complete Commitment C Richard Susskind 2000

135 SelectionServiceRecognition Figure 2.1 - Todays Client Service Chain blatant trigger selection of lawyer consultative advice C Richard Susskind 2000

136 Figure 2.2 - Transforming the Service element of the Client Service Chain unbundled services online service consultative advice commoditized latent market multi-disciplinary high-end, traditional project management document management legal research strategy Transforming the Service element of the Client Service Chain from consultative advice to C Richard Susskind 2000

137 Figure 2.3 - Transforming the Selection element of the Client Service Chain selection of source of guidance selection of online service selection of adviser assessment of need infomediaries online auctions virtual teams to from selection of lawyer Transforming the Selection element of the Client Service Chain C Richard Susskind 2000

138 Figure 2.4 - Transforming the Recognition element of the Client Service Chain blatant trigger proactive service infomediaries legal audits push technology intelligent agents embedded expertise Intranet implants business-episode based Transforming the Recognition element of the Client Service Chain blatant trigger from to C Richard Susskind 2000

139 SelectionServiceRecognition Figure 2.5 - Tomorrows Client Service Chain blatant trigger selection of source of guidance unbundled services proactive service selection of online service selection of adviser online service consultative advice C Richard Susskind 2000

140 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Mark Deal Technology Consultant You show me a failed implementation of technology and I will show you that the company/firm did one or more of four things wrong: (Four Horsemen of the Legal Tech Apocalypse)

141 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson poor planning and research 1. Only considered the cost of the tool and not the cost of implementation: poor planning and research ;

142 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson false economy 2. Failed to invest in RELIABLE consultants to assist with the experienced implementation of the solution: false economy

143 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson poor management 3. Failed to implement the tool from the top down: Upper management did not use the tool and did not encourage others to do so: poor management ;

144 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson inadequate resource allocation 4. Pushed the implementation entirely to a poorly staffed IT department who had no interest or buy in to make it successful: inadequate resource allocation.

145 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Technology Disintermediation- Trend or Cycle? What are implications if Susskind is correct? Traditional- large firm, large client only Commodity- better, faster, cheaper Latent- may be no direct client contact –Upper right quadrant of Susskind grid

146 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson 5. Offshoring/Intermediation- Trend or Cycle?

147 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson General Counsel/ Outside Counsel Recent U.S. survey of Chief Legal Officers, – most innovative practice proposed or instituted by their outside counsel in the past year? – 23 percent of respondents were able to identify any innovation at all. U.K. study of FTSE-100 companies' perceptions of the legal profession – innovation was ranked amongst the most important factors in choosing a law firm.

148 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Intel CEO Craig Barrett Jan-Feb 2004 Business 2.0 In space of 5 years close to 3 billion people have been brought into mainstream capitalist economic infrastructure (India, China, Russia and some Russian satellite countries) Substantially lower wages with comparable or superior education to US applicants. Unless youre my auto mechanic or plumber, I dont care where the hell youre located.

149 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Brad Hildebrandt 1-14-04 Outsourcing to India $10 billion in next 5 years Hildebrandt offering 3 choices –Consult with firm re outsourcing –Several clients form captive outsourcing firm –Joint venture with existing outsourcing company

150 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Ted Martin, CEO of Martin Partners, an executive-search firm in Chicago: As far as off shoring goes, the bottom line is, when a consulting firm can replace a $48,000 hire with an $8,000 hire in India, it's going to be very difficult for this trend to reverse itself. Not only are you saving $40,000 on an annual basis per person……… but you often are getting a more qualified and experienced individual than you could in the States. Business Week 2-9-2004

151 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Lou Dobbs Report 8-10% of all associates hired by large law firms will be offshore hires (as in India) by 2011. –2000 1,793 off-shore –2005 14,200 –2010 34,673 –2015 74,672 –U.S. Dept of Labor & Forrester Research The new associates will take on roughly the same work as new associates handle in the firms now at less than 20% of the cost.

152 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Outsourcing Hits Legal Services Star Tribune 1-16-2004 First it was apparel workers-the working class-who saw their $10-an-hour jobs go overseas. Now six-figure lawyers and legal support staffs are starting to sweat. –Westlaw has test office in Bombay GE and other behemoths using Indian lawyers to supplant work formerly done by outside law firms.

153 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Outsourcing Hits Legal Services contd Forrester Research- by 2015 489,000 U.S. lawyer jobs will shift to lower cost countries Mindcrest Inc. legal process outsourcing –Enhanced levels of service and a 30-70% lower cost to customer

154 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Bye-Bye Associates? …the kind of work now being sent off shore, and expected to be increasingly sent off-shore, is work normally done by first/second-year associates in the largest law firms -- research, legal memos, that kind of thing. They gave a comparison of how much it costs a firm to hire an American lawyer here, and how much it costs them to get the same work done in India. They didn't get into the "practice of law" issues, but my guess is that the firms are using, or planning to use, some sort of American lawyer supervision to get around that issue.

155 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Bye-Bye Billable Hours- Strategy & Innovation Harvard Business School Jan/Feb 2004 Doctors price on the basis of commonalities, lawyers have priced on the basis of differences. Best lawyers cant claim to be best and in the same breath profess an inability to estimate cost. Fixed fee shifts risk from client to law firm.

156 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Lexadigm.com

157 Legalmatch.com

158 Legalpath.com

159 Elawforum.com

160 John Henry- Founder/CEO elawforum Aggregates large company legal problems and negotiates fixed-fee deals We just saved a client $55 million in 2 deals. Our challenge now is to do a thousand of these deals.

161 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Tom Peters predicts Tom Peters predicts Ninety per cent white- collar jobs will disappear in the next ten years. What color collars do lawyers wear? Is there an exception for lawyers?

162 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson So Now What Do We Do? First question- Is status quo an option? –Will our guild return to those glory days of yesteryear? –Are we experiencing discontinuous trends or are we merely in a cycle? If answer to #1 is no, how do we get into the change process? –Role of the bar –Role of the individual lawyer/law firm

163 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Must Develop a Sense of Urgency

164 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson

165 Three Year Initial Commitment Long Range Planning or Futures committee in firm Top down, bottom up –Need enthusiastic support and visionary firm leadership –Need to have diverse members do the work from new associates to senior partners

166 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson First Year Study current state of the practice and profession. –Use as a platform to examine the challenges and opportunities of Change and How the firm can and should define its own future

167 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Second Year Use a strategic planning tool for futurists Scan extensively, particularly outside profession, for major trends affecting the profession and particularly the firm. Seek widespread input from inside and outside the profession. Develop alternative futures for the firm Choose preferred futures for the firm

168 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Third Year Engage in back-casting, focusing on a particular future and tracing back how it would have come to be and what changes must have occurred at each step to create that future. Determine action steps that would foster the preferred future Engage the firm lawyers and nonlawyers in the process and the follow through required to continue the process.

169 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Fourth Year and Beyond Monitor the environment for new trends or cycles Continue the action steps toward the preferred future Build on existing competencies to deal with the issues now and in the future Learn new competencies to be able to perform relevant services in a 5-10 year future window

170 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Thinking About the Future- Stuart Forsyth No one can truly predict the future But we can: 1.See different possibilities (alternative futures) 2.Pick the future we prefer 3.Take actions designed to foster our preferred future 4.Seek to maximize our viability in the event of another future (not the one we prefer)

171 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Leading the Profession to a Preferred Future If we dont drive the vehicle to our future we will end up wherever we are taken Doing nothing will produce the worst results Institutionalize future planning We can create positives or default to negatives

172 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Mary Ryan, ABA Committee on Delivery of Legal Services A lawyer is best defined as someone who provides the best services in a free market, not the only services in a protected market.

173 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson What To Do If Any Trends Spotted 1.Preempt the dispute resolution market beyond ADR 2.Live a new lawyer image 1.Truthteller 2.Integrity 3.Play offense in the MJP trend 4.Technology= strategy not reluctant necessity. 5.Reinvent relationship with clients.

174 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Dakota tribal wisdom says that when you discover you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount. © 2000 Charles F. Robinson

175 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson In law firms we often try other strategies with dead horses, including the following: © 2000 Charles F. Robinson

176 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Changing riders © 2000 Charles F. Robinson

177 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Saying things like... This is the way we always have ridden this horse! © 2000 Charles F. Robinson

178 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Dead Horse? What dead horse? © 2000 Charles F. Robinson

179 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Appointing a committee to study the horse © 2000 Charles F. Robinson

180 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Arranging to visit other firms to see how they ride dead horses © 2000 Charles F. Robinson

181 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Increasing the standards to ride dead horses © 2000 Charles F. Robinson

182 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Declare the horse is "better, faster and cheaper" dead © 2000 Charles F. Robinson

183 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Harnessing several dead horses together for increased speed © 2000 Charles F. Robinson

184 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Kouzes and Posner, coauthors of The Leadership Challenge

185 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Visit our Web Site www.Charlie-Robinson.com www.CharlieRobinsonFuturist.com Or Email Comments to Elderlaw@Charlie-Robinson.com Presentation graphics by Wendy

186 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson We must reinvent our practices now and every two years from now. We must get over denial and our reverence for precedent and escape the bonds of legacy.

187 © 2004 Charles F. Robinson Firms do not succeed by increasing productivity. Great successes come from changing rules. Dont be riding in someone elses vehicle to the future. Managed care is what happens when a profession gets out of the drivers seat.


Download ppt "© 2004 Charles F. Robinson Presentation by Charles F. Robinson Clearwater, FL Forces Shaping the Future of Law Practice Kentucky Bar Annual Convention."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google