The Global Technological Revolution Whence? 2 exemplary laws Some manifestations of those laws 5 effects
The Global Technological Revolution - Whence? Major advances in information and communications technologies ( ICT ) Digital storage and processing of information (information) Satellite and optical fiber transmission of information (communications)
Two Exemplary Laws Moore s law predicts the doubling of computing power every 18 – 24 months Gilder s law predicts the doubling of communications power every six months
10,000,000 1,000,000 1,000 10,000 100,000 Pentium Pro (5.5 m transistors) 197019751980198519901995 Intel 4004 (2,300 transistors) Intel 8080 Intel 8086 Motorola 68000 286 386 Sun SPARC 486 Pentium (3.1 m)
Some Manifestations … In 2001 more information can be sent over a single cable in a second than in 1997 was sent over the entire internet in a month.
Some Manifestations … The cost of transmitting a trillion bits of information from Boston to Los Angeles has fallen from $150,000 in 1970 to 12 cents today.
Some Manifestations … A three-minute phone call from New York to London that in 1930 cost more than $300 (in today s prices) costs less than 20 cents today.
0 50 100 150 200 250 1930195019701990 Cost of a three-minute telephone call New York - London (1990 dollars)
Some Manifestations … E-mailing a 40-page document from Chile to Kenya costs less than 10 cents, faxing it about $10, sending it by courier $50.
Optical Fiber Transmission cost per M bit/s x km (relative) 10000 1000 100 10 1 0.1 198019902000 45 M bit/s 90/135 M bit/s 400 M bit/s 1.2/1.7 G bit/s 2.5 G bit/s 10 G bit/s 40 G bit/s Cost of information processing (100 = $1 per instruction per second) 19801975198519901995 0.1 1 10 100 0.01 IBM mainframe Digital VAX Cray 1 IBM PC Sun Micro Pentium Source : AT&T
Effect 1: Businesses and Markets Transformed In 1999 in Costa Rica, Malaysia and Singapore, high- tech exports exceeded 40% of the total
Effect 2: Learning and Knowledge-sharing Revolutionized From 1995 – 97, scientists in the United States co-authored articles with scientists from 173 other countries; Scientists in Brazil with 114, in Kenya with 81, in Algeria 59.
Learning and Knowledge-sharing Revolutionized The six largest internet-based distance-learning universities in the world are located in developing countries -- Turkey, Indonesia, China, India, Thailand and Korea
Effect 4: Citizens and Communities Empowered in Novel Ways Governance redefined Globalization of civil society
Citizens and Communities Empowered in Novel Ways The Philippines: electronic advocacy network set up in response to impeachment trial
Effect 5: Significant Wealth and Economic Growth Created E-commerce, business conducted over the Internet, totaled $45 billion as recently as 1998 and an estimate in January 2000 projected it could explode to over $7 trillion as early as 2004.
What is The Digital Divide? Between countries – the global digital divide Between groups of people within countries - the domestic digital divide
The Digital Divide: Phones and Electricity 2 billion people lack access to reliable electricity As much as 80% of the world's population has never made a phone call
The Digital Divide: Phones and Electricity More telephones in New York City than in all of rural Asia In the entire continent of Africa, there are a mere 14 million phone lines -- fewer than in either Manhattan or Tokyo.
The Digital Divide: Internet Accounts and Hosts More Internet accounts in London than all of Africa One in two Americans is online, compared with only one in 250 Africans.
The Digital Divide: Internet Accounts and Hosts Of all the Internet users worldwide, 60 per cent reside in North America, where a mere five per cent of the world's population reside Wealthy nations comprise some 16 per cent of the world's population, but command 90 per cent of Internet host computers.
The Digital Divide: PCs Developed states: 311.2 per 1,000 Globally: 70.6 PCs per 1,000 South Asia: 2.9 per 1,000 Sub-Saharan Africa: 0.75 per 1,000
Bandwidth and Speed The vast capacity of the Internet is distributed highly unevenly throughout the world. By late 2000 the bulk of Internet connectivity linked the US with Europe (56 Gbps) and, to a lesser extent, the US with the Asia-Pacific region (18 Gbps). Africa had extremely little bandwidth reaching Europe (0.2 Gbps) and the USA (0.5 Gbps)
The Digital Divide: Costs Internet access costs (as a percentage of average monthly income) US: 1 to 2 percent Uganda: over 100 percent Bangladesh: 191 percent
The Digital Divide: Costs Access costs (ISP, and telephone call costs) are almost four times as expensive in the Czech Republic and Hungary as in the United States In Bangladesh a computer costs the equivalent of eight years average pay
Technical Training McConnell International "E-Business report Europe (including Eastern Europe) and Latin America rated well Middle East and Africa needed to significantly develop their human capital Asia had a mixed scorecard
International Institutional Responses infoDev SDNP DOI DOT Force
infoDev The Information for Development Program (infoDev) Global program managed by the World Bank
infoDev Seeks to help developing economies fully benefit from modern information systems Program Manager, Bruno Lanvin, is a senior World Bank official
SDNP Sustainable Development Networking Programme of the UNDP Seeks to assist developing countries in acquiring the capacity to access and to contribute to solutions for sustainable development via the medium of information and communication technologies
SDNP Assistance in National IT Policy Formulation IT Project Development, Monitoring, and Evaluation Consultancy Assistance Connectivity, Website Hosting & Mirroring
DOI The Digital Opportunity Initiative A public/private partnership of Accenture The Markle Foundation UN Development Program
DOI Launched at the G-8 Okinawa summit Seeks to identify the roles that information and communication technologies can play in fostering sustainable economic development and enhancing social equity
DOT Force The Digital Opportunity Task Force Established pursuant to the Okinawa Charter on the Global Information Society drafted at the G-8s Okinawa Summit 43 members from public, private and not-for- profit sectors and including participants from developed and developing countries
DOT Force The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the World Bank provide the Secretariat for the Task Force.
DOT Force Met in 3 plenaries – in Tokyo (11/00), Cape Town (3/01), and Sienna (4/01) Published Digital Opportunities for All in May, 2001. Action Pan secured G-8 endorsement in Genoa (July 2001)